Ukraine: non-military aspects (August 2014-December 2015)

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Originally Posted by Firn

So how limited in time could that limited war be?

I have no idea but a longer time horizon, measured in years, can sadly not be ruled out for a frozen-in aggression. Arguably more is more likely then less.

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firn---you bring up an interesting question and it goes to the heart of what has been called "frozen conflicts" which actually really only applies to Moldavia and Georgia. Meaning Russian troops are in the country and no fighting is and or has been occurring since the split off of the enclaves.

I personally would not call what is going on in eastern Ukraine nowhere close to being "frozen" as the fighting is just as intense as it was before 5 Sept and Russian troops are still rotating in and out and are involved in direct fighting with Ukrainian SF types on a daily basis.

The ambushing/killing of a senior FSB General by Ukrainian SF is a good example of that.

The area of the mercenaries is in fact contained but that does not negate the constant shellings and fighting--thus on cannot refer to it as "frozen".

AP took offense here with my comment---Russia was "suckered into eastern Ukraine".

But if we carefully look at every move by the current Ukrainian President and the Ukrainian PM---we tend to see a country threatened by a far superior military force that has been extremely effective in side stepping, delaying, and finally frustrating every move Putin is making--almost as if they have the Russian "playbook" in their hands.

While having a draft army and weak militarily they have held their own and have in some aspects contained currently the Russian military in a far smaller "New Russia" than Putin initially wanted, they have mobilized the West into a set of sectorial sanctions that are not coming off any time soon and they have ongoing election campaigning in the face of Russian aggressor.

One is starting to see the Russian "frustration" with the Ukraine coming now to the surface inside the Duma.

"Frustration" is probably also due to the sanctions, falling Rubel and a massively damaged economy due to falling oil prices--which they seem to blame on the Ukraine and the West.


MOSCOW, October 16. /TASS/. A lawmaker of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) has submitted a proposal to the government on introducing a special economic regime with Ukraine to revise the current contracts with Kiev and ban further deals, the Izvestia newspaper reported on Thursday.

Lawmaker Roman Khudyakov said Russia’s harsh economic policy will help bring a swift end to the armed conflict and force Kiev to comply with the agreements signed in the Belarusian capital Minsk last month during the talks mediated by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).

“The goal is very simple — forcing Ukraine to peace,” the newspaper quoted Khudyakov, a politician from Moldova's breakaway region of Transdniestria, as saying.

The proposed measures include a ban on the supplies of Ukrainian food, machinery and metalwork products to Russia. Russia could also block exports to Ukraine of “everything that may be used for military actions of the Ukrainian army,” including tank engines and KAMAZ trucks, the report says.

The Russian lawmaker has urged Prosecutor General Yury Chaika to check the legality of a $6.7 billion contract of the Kremenchug-based Kryukovsky Wagon Building Plant with St. Petersburg metro.

Khudyakov said the Ukrainian authorities have been repeatedly committing war crimes and violating the Minsk agreements on ceasefire in eastern Ukraine and called on Russia to react to Kiev’s actions.

“Although we cannot react with military force, we can respond economically,” he said.

“We should stop crimes like witch-hunt and terror against (Ukraine’s) own people and armed aggression against (self-proclaimed) Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics. For example, if the Ukrainian army continues bombing territories of the republics, any gas supplies should end,” he said.

Under the proposal, Russia should also ban a range of Ukrainian businessmen from entering the country and freeze their property and assets on the Russian territory.

The special economic regime should not directly target ordinary Ukrainian citizens, the lawmaker said.

In mid-August, Ukraine’s parliament adopted a package of anti-Russian sanctions, giving the National Security and Defense Council the right to block assets, restrict trade operations, stop, fully or partially, the transit of resources, air flights and haulages via Ukrainian territory; prevent the outflow of capital, suspend the implementation of financial and economic obligations and annul licenses.

We do not hear much out of the Crimea these days outside of constant reports of Crimea Tartars "disappearing" and ending up killed after being tortured or simply just "disappear for good".

THEN this shows up today as a first indicator that things are not going well for that "famously made statements Russia will support the Crimea forever".

Appears the ferry links are not able to bring in enough supplies for the entire Crimea---thus the need for a land corridor--which originally went through the Ukraine---which brings up the question again--will Putin go for it?

Reports say, a #famine could begin soon in Russian-occupied #Crimea ...
Kindergartens already without most of food.
http://censor.net.ua/news/307349/v_

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Firn

So how limited in time could that limited war be?

I have no idea but a longer time horizon, measured in years, can sadly not be ruled out for a frozen-in aggression. Arguably more is more likely then less.

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I do wonder - from my centrally heated home - whether the weather will freeze aggression sooner than the political-military.

On a quick look based on the climate in Rostov winter arrives next month as indicated on:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rostov-on-Don#Climate

Yes the military can adjust and fight on. One assumes both sides have planned for a winter campaign.

As I have mentioned before what about the civil population in Eastern Ukraine? Fuel supplies appear likely not to be what is normal.

Outlaw, indeed it is still a war with deaths, so we are still not in a 'frozen' state of conflict. It is also a considerable bigger conflict compared to Russia's war with Georgia, against a far bigger country and with far bigger consequences for Russia as a whole and it's economy specifically.

Davidbfpo. The question about the weather is a good one. The impact on the military operations will depend on the specific conditions, although road-bound mobility should be considerably better then in the bad old days.

Maybe some recall that in many urban areas of Ukraine the old soviet model with a central gas plant heating many appartments still prevails. Clearly it is a rather vulnerable an energy in-efficient* centralized method. Insulation is seemingly rare. The gas gifts of the past are partly responsible for that mess. As usual the common folk is paying the price.

All in all I fear it is a longer term conflict, with Putin still unwilling to recall his troops, the Ukrainians overall unwilling to give to the aggressor and the Western powers not inclinded to reduce the sanctions and pressure on Russia.

*It could be very efficient if done properly, of course.

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Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09

Appears the ferry links are not able to bring in enough supplies for the entire Crimea---thus the need for a land corridor--which originally went through the Ukraine---which brings up the question again--will Putin go for it?

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I wonder how often bad weather does interrupt the ferry service over the Kerch. It played a considerable role in the ill-fated Soviet counter-offensive of 1942 supported from the mainland...

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Originally Posted by mirhond

Talking to true Ukrainian nationalists is quite helpful - after some private conversations and public discussions on the forums I've figured out that their nationalistic fervor negatively correlates with pursuit to fight for Donbass - the most freaky and exclusive nationalists are the most willing to let Donbass go, because they consider it too much Russian and too much un-Ukrainian, therefore useless or even harmful to Ukrainian national unity. It looks like paradox - most disgusting nationalists sometimes are more peaceful then their moderate associates in this particular case.

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comrade mirhond--a great question for you and it is fairly easy for even you to answer.

If the Ukraine is controlled by a junta and is as Putin "claims" full of Nazi's then WHY are all the Russian and European "fascists" fighting for Russia?

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Originally Posted by Firn

I wonder how often bad weather does interrupt the ferry service over the Kerch. It played a considerable role in the ill-fated Soviet counter-offensive of 1942 supported from the mainland...

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Agree with you---still am surprised that the level of supplies that Russia is supposed to have brought in seems to make no difference ---in fact seems to be virtually nothing ---and that would actually pressure Putin to indeed take the land corridor from the Ukraine that he so urgently needs--there is some indicators that gasoline is down to a one day supply.

After completing a detailed analysis, Germany's foreign intelligence service, the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), has concluded that pro-Russian rebels were responsible for the crash of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 on July 19 in eastern Ukraine while on route from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/...2.html#ref=rss

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New Policy Memo: Novorossiya: A Launching Pad for Russian Nationalists

Published 10-24-2014
The Ukraine crisis is a game changer for Russia’s domestic landscape. One of the most eloquent engines of this is the spread of the concept of “Novorossiya,” or New Russia. With origins dating from the second half of the 18th century, the term was revived during the Ukraine crisis and gained indirect official validation when Russian President Vladimir Putin used it during a call-in show in April 2014 to evoke the situation of the Russian-speaking population of Ukraine. It appeared again in May when the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics (DNR and LNR) decided to unite in a “Union of Novorossiya.” In August, a presidential statement was addressed to the “Insurgents of Novorossiya,” though the text itself referred only to “representatives of the Donbas.” The powerful pull of Novorossiya rests on its dual meaning in announcing the birth of a New Russia geographically and metaphorically. It is both a promised land to be added to Russia and an anticipation of Russia’s own transformation. As such, “Novorossiya” provides for an exceptional convergence of three underlying ideological paradigms that I briefly analyze here.

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http://www.ponarseurasia.org/article...n-nationalists

While there seems to be little new in the East, just a low intenstity war, the election tomorrow will likely rout the parties and players formerly friendly to Moscow. The Maidan movement and the Russian invasions have certainly completely changed the political landscape of one of the largest European nation and to some extent also the Ukrainians themselves:

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War may have ended the era when Ukrainians traded their votes for some cooking oil and flour.

“I took the buckwheat but voted my heart,” reads an Internet meme of an elderly lady displaying a rude gesture on Twitter and Facebook from an Internet group called Our Guard. It’s urging voters not to exchange ballots for food before tomorrow’s general election.

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Sad to see an old lady reduced in this state and all the poverty in Ukraine in which the population suffered so much. In any case enemy invasion tends to stir patriotic feelings and upheaval and so far this war does.

BTW: A Night in War-Shattered Lugansk is a nice read about a backdrop of the election.

While there is still a lot in flux Radio Free Europe came up with ten quick take-aways from Ukraine's vote:

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The West-Russia divide is no longer relevant in parliament

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine's parliamentary battles have largely taken place between so-called pro-Western factions and pro-Russian ones. No more. For the first time in the history of independent Ukraine, the country's parliament will be dominated by parties that support strong ties with Europe. The likely top three parties all support EU accession and, combined, upwards of 75 percent of the seats are expected to be held by pro-Europe deputies.

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While it was pushed down in part by the Russian occupation of areas like the Donbas the relative low turnout and it's regional graduation are in my opinion also of great importance. For a decent analysis we have to wait for more and better data.

Today amidst my email was a notice from a cruise line that in 2015 they would no longer call @ Odessa (Ukr) or @ Yalta (Crimea), which amounts to twelve visits, each with a conservative 2k passengers. Nor would three other smaller cruise lines.

Another piece of hilarious nonsence from Ukromedia:

http://www.trust.ua/news/102223-spis...em-rossii.html

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В числе погибших под Мариуполем – Герой России, капитан второго ранга Кирилл Разум.
«Потери: 159 отряд ОСПН БПДСС В/Ч 87200 вел бои в районе Мариуполя. Списочные потери 39 человек в том числе: зам по диверсиям капитан второго ранга Кирилл Разум – Герой России; командир второго диверсионного отряда капитан третьего ранга Марасин Константин; командир разведгруппы капитан-лейтенант Мизин Николай», – пишет Васильева.

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http://www.trust.ua/files/photo/4/00...eh-rossiya.jpg

Hero of Russia, captain Kirill Razum, commander Marasin Konstantin, and leutenant-commander Mizin Nikolai along with other marines got killed under Mariupol'

Is there such person ever exists? Let's check:

List of Heroes of Russian Federation

http://dic.academic.ru/dic.nsf/ruwiki/16970

Nope, there is no such person in this list. But funny bull$hit isn't over, let's compare the names of "Russian marines" with fiction character's names from ####ty action novell "Piranha" (1999) by Bushkov Alexander

http://royallib.ru/book/bushkov_alek...iy_brosok.html

http://royallib.ru/data/images/7/cover_7590.jpg

Кирилл Разум - Кирилл Мазур

Kirill Razum - Kirill Mazur

Марасин Константин - Самарин Константин

Marasin Konstantin - Samarin Konstantin

Мизин Николай - Зимин Николай

Mizin Nikolai - Zimin Nikolai

Spooky coinsidence?
Author of this crap - feral anti-Putin activist Elena Vasil'eva - doesn't even bothered to invent personal names, she just swapped the syllables in the fiction ones! :D
Who will die next? FSB agent Anna Karenina? Volunteer Evgeni Onegin? Chechen mercenary Haji Murat? Old cossack Ivan Denisovich?
ps. in case you didn't get a joke - there are characters by Tolstoi, Pushkin and Solzhenitzin.
:rolleyes:

researched by http://shrek1.livejournal.com/1097865.html

oh, gawd, the stream of bat$hit is endless...:eek:

SBU captured an FSB general who agitated National Guard to roit.

http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2014/10/24/7041811/

http://qph.is.quoracdn.net/main-qimg...t_to_webp=true

Why SBU thinks this guy is an FSB general? Well, he has a deputy associate creds, a presscard, and because he says so! As I've told you many times before - FSB agents never lie!

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Originally Posted by mirhond

oh, gawd, the stream of bat$hit is endless...:eek:

SBU captured an FSB general who agitated National Guard to roit.

http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2014/10/24/7041811/

http://qph.is.quoracdn.net/main-qimg...t_to_webp=true

Why SBU thinks this guy is an FSB general? Well, he has a deputy associate creds, a presscard, and because he says so! As I've told you many times before - FSB agents never lie!

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AND mirhond the Ruble just keeps on falling against the USD---wow what a superpower--cannot even protect their own currency and you expect it to protect Russian citizens?

Russian central bank has thrown over 21B USD of your Russian tax/oil money at the problem and it is still falling.

Rouble collapse accelerating this morning: straight through 43 and very close to 44 to the dollar

pic.twitter.com/YI301CmYWG

Somewhat to my surprise the Ukraine, Russia, the EU and IMF have reached an agreement on gas supplies to the Ukraine from Russia, with debts paid and support for paying for the new gas:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29842505

Strange. "Make war and supply gas" is not the headline. One wonders if the Russians are desperate for the foreign exchange windfall.

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Originally Posted by davidbfpo

Somewhat to my surprise the Ukraine, Russia, the EU and IMF have reached an agreement on gas supplies to the Ukraine from Russia, with debts paid and support for paying for the new gas:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29842505

Strange. "Make war and supply gas" is not the headline. One wonders if the Russians are desperate for the foreign exchange windfall.

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Care to explain why are you even surprised? Cash is cash, duh.
I'am surpised that you haven't thought about alternative explanation: not only Russians are desperate for cash, but Europenans are desperate for gas (which otherwise will be stolen by Ukraine, if not paid for), besides - winter is coming.

Mirhond you asked:

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Care to explain why are you even surprised?

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It is not the money or the need for gas in the Ukraine and beyond. My surprise is that amidst a small war and the oh-so diplomatic response by NATO, quadrilateral talks succeed in reaching an agreement. Perhaps it was because the diplomats were not there, rather the energy supply experts and those with deep pockets?

This article suits to Outlaw and Americanpride fascism discussion.




Russians Re-write History to Slur Ukraine Over War
Simon Shuster / Moscow Oct. 29, 2014

The trio of German historians, as well as a handful of their colleagues from Eastern Europe, flew into Moscow last week for what they thought would be a conference on the history of Nazi war crimes. It was the fifth in a series of international summits held every other year since 2006,

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Outside the hall, Borsche seemed at a loss for words as he waited in the coat-check line. He had served as one of the initiators of the conference and its co-chairman, flying in from Germany for the occasion to discuss a shared history of suffering during World War II. But he says he had no idea that his Russian colleagues would use it as a chance to promote their political agenda against Ukraine. “That’s not correct,” he told me. If there is some lesson to be learned from the experience, it’s a familiar one, he said: “The more people are convinced of their own opinion, the more they become estranged from other opinions. That’s a real difficult problem.” And as Russia sets out to redefine what Nazism means, it is a problem that Western historians will somehow have to face.

http://time.com/3545855/russia-ukrai...E:+Top+Stories