I have a bad memory but wasn't there some sort of truce agreement lately in Berlin or so? Not many days ago?
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I have a bad memory but wasn't there some sort of truce agreement lately in Berlin or so? Not many days ago?
Firn--actually no--what was agreed to was the removal of all artillery over
100mms 15kms from each side of the Minsk defined demarcation line--which also was the core point mentioned in the Sept Minsk agreement signed by Russia--so really there was nothing agreed to in berlin that had not already been agreed to in Sept in Minsk---all propaganda and the Russians appearing to be willing to negotiate that is all.
The only existing ceasefire was the Ukrainian November declared period of silence and it was unilateral and not held to by either Russian troops and their mercenaries. For a long time even the Ukrainians would not return fire even is heavily shelled.
Steinmeier & @GermanyDiplo- how is that "retreat heavy weapons 15km" thing going?
#Russia advanced 15km since you had this "success"...
Remember it was the Russian FM Lavrov who in Moscow before flying to Berlin stated that the Russian mercenaries had listened to Russian and would pull back to the Minsk demarcation line--see anything like that happening lately--thus the FM cannot be ever trusted and I am not sure why the US keeps trying to deal with him.
And this seems to have been overlooked by the US NSC---
#Putin Once Casually Said He Could Destroy The US In A Half-An-Hour Or Less
http://www.businessinsider.com/putin...#ixzz3PfwDlk8u …
pic.twitter.com/4HOBXc4PFP
Russian howitzers in Tahanrig, Rostov region
http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/23-janu...-rostov-region …
pic.twitter.com/yFLAtLrjSE
Unbelievable: Donbas Russian seperatist Strelkov appears to have become a war expert on Russian TV.
NOTE: He started this whole mess----
pic.twitter.com/4fZrzhDWdK
VIDEO 22/01/15 #Russia 9A52-2 Smerch-M Rocket Launcher in #Makeevka
https://www.youtube.com/watch?x-yt-t...yt-cl=84503534 …
pic.twitter.com/NrlvTwtpaw
Were Chemical Weapons Used in Donetsk Airport’s Last Stand?
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-a...ts-last-stand/ …
Why Ilovaisk 2.0 is in the making RIGHT NOW.
http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.co.uk/2...ebaltseve.html …
pic.twitter.com/AyOEQMXy2v
Thousands of Russian Troops in Airport Push Newsweek
By James Rupert 1/23/15 at 6:12 PM
A “substantial number” of Russian Federation special forces troops led this week’s capture of the Donetsk airport amid what appears to be Russia’s biggest direct military offensive in Ukraine since last summer.
The offensive, by thousands of Russian troops, appears aimed at least in part at forcing a re-negotiation of the September cease-fire agreement, which has proven an obstacle for the Kremlin in its key goal: constraining Ukraine’s pursuit of closer ties with Europe and the West.
After months of intense, high-explosive combat amid the ruins of southeastern Ukraine’s main airport, Russian special forces commandos this week led the attacks that killed or drove back the Ukrainian troops and national guardsmen that both sides had dubbed “cyborgs” for their tenacious, defense of the airport’s main buildings, according to Atlantic Council analyst John Herbst. The Russian special forces are fighting at the airport “in substantial numbers,” said Herbst, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine who returned this week from a talks with Ukrainian and Western officials in Kyiv and Brussels.
In recent weeks, Russia has boosted its troop numbers inside southeastern Ukraine’s Donbas region to about 9,000, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said this week in a speech at Davos, Switzerland. Ukraine’s intelligence services routinely monitor Russian military movements across the stretches of the Ukraine-Russia border that are under the effective control of Russian forces.
Along with NATO, which uses satellite surveillance of the same area, Ukraine has reported what Herbst says is “a massive resupply of Russian heavy equipment—tanks, armored personnel carriers, missile systems—into Ukraine over the past month. Obviously, these are all things that were stocked for the offensive that we’re seeing right now.”
War’s Cost: $6 Million Daily
The new offensive follows what has been a creeping seizure of territory “since the putative cease-fire was agreed to in early September,” said Herbst, who directs the Atlantic Council’s Dinu Patriciu Eurasia Center. “The Russians and separatist forces have captured another 500 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory”—about 190 square miles, about three times the area of Washington, D.C. “So the cease-fire violations [by the Russians and their proxy forces] are not just in shooting but in seizing land,” Herbst said in an interview.
“Another key takeaway” of his talks in Kiev “is the cost of the war to Ukraine,” Herbst said. “Ukrainian security officials we spoke to said Ukraine is spending $6 million to $7 million every day, just to maintain their forces in the east to oppose the Kremlin’s aggression.”
Ukrainian military officers in Donbas told The New York Times that Russian troops also are spearheading a drive in Lugansk province that seized border checkpoint from Ukrainian troops and villages north of Lugansk city.
Russia’s Offensive: What Goals?
The Russian offensive’s immediate territorial goals are unclear. Alexander Zakharchenko, a Ukrainian who is the declared prime minister of the Russian-sponsored Donetsk People’s Republic, told Russian news agencies today that the Russian-backed forces would re-capture all of Donetsk province (an objective he has declared for many weeks). Ukraine last summer pushed the Donetsk separatist forces out of the northern half of the province before the Russian army deployed its own paratroopers, tanks and artillery units to halt their advance.
Some military analysts, notably Georgetown University professor and former Pentagon strategist Philip Karber, have warned that a new Russian drive into Ukraine was likely in the spring. US government analysts in Washington have told the Atlantic Council in recent weeks that Russia might move in the winter, rather than wait for spring, in part because it has a tactical advantage over Ukraine with its greater transport and logistical capacities amid snow and freezing temperatures.
Whatever Russia’s immediate aims in a winter offensive, President Vladimir Putin’s strategic need is greater military leverage against the Ukrainian government than that permitted him under the September cease-fire accord. That deal confined the Russian-led forces to only the southern half of the Donbas region, and has failed to deter the government in Kiev from pursuing its closer association with the European Union and the West.
Putin has insisted that Ukraine must remain in the Russian sphere of influence and join a Russian-led economic bloc that is a centerpiece of Putin’s strategy for maintaining Russia’s long-term security and economic future as the dominant power in Eurasia.
Lavrov Says ‘Prove It’
Amid the Russian offensive this week, German officials reported that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had agreed with his German, French and Ukrainian counterparts on a plan for both sides to pull their heavy weapons back from the line agreed in the September 5 cease-fire deal, signed in Minsk, Belarus.
Russia denies that it has troops in Ukraine or that it is the financial and military backer of the Donetsk and Lugansk “people’s republics.” Those entities were created and are sustained by Ukrainians opposed to the “fascist” and “neo-Nazi” government in Kiev, the Kremlin says.
To journalists in Davos, Lavrov on January 21 re-stated Moscow’s denial that it has sent weapons or troops, or that it has any other direct involvement in the war. “I say every time: If you allege this so confidently, present the facts. But nobody can present the facts, or doesn't want to," Lavrov told a news conference before heading to the peace talks in Berlin with the foreign ministers of Ukraine, Germany and France. “So before demanding from us that we stop doing something, please present proof that we have done it," Lavrov said.
In fact, a wide base of reporting from Ukraine and Russia—including independent reporting by Western and Russian journalists; by non-government organizations including the Russian committees of mothers of soldiers and the Russian director of the Red Cross in Moscow; by international and Russian human rights groups and activists; and by Russian citizens and soldiers posting their stories and pictures on social media sites—have documented Russia’s provision of weapons; its deployments of troops; the deaths of its soldiers on Ukrainian battlefields; its government’s support for Russian military veterans’ recruitment as mercenaries; the presence of its (Cossack and Chechen) paramilitary forces in Ukraine’s war; and other elements of Russia’s role.
Many such reports also have detailed the censorship, beatings, and legal actions by the Russian government to suppress the evidence that Lavrov said had never been offered.
James Rupert is an editor at the Atlantic Council.
AND this above is not a "war" vs the US term "incursion"?
Ukraine rebel Zakharchenko 'rejects truce talks' -- Who asks for a truce when he's winning?
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30949527 …
So now that we are seeing a full blown Russian invasion and resulting war there is a single point of failure for Putin---the question is -----is the US/EU and NATO willing if at all to pull the trigger?
It will bring the Russian economy to it's knees and present Putin with a series of serious decisions to make--namely risk his entire economy to come to a literal stand still and that over the next tens years or he pulls out.
SWIFT
Leonid Ragozin @leonidragozin
Interesting how top Russian officials are promising a full-out war if SWIFT sanctions are in place. Here is their pain barrier.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/24/wo...ence.html?_r=0
War Is Exploding Anew In Ukraine; Rebels Vow More
Surprise to who exactly? Our diplomats?Quote:
Unexpectedly, at the height of the Ukrainian winter, war has exploded anew on a half-dozen battered fronts across eastern Ukraine, accompanied by increasing evidence that Russian troops and Russian equipment have been pouring into the region again.
As for Russia's economy, all the more reason to attack to maintain national identity. One also should wonder how long King Saud's successor will keep oil prices suppressed.Quote:
With the appearance in recent weeks of what NATO calls sophisticated Russian weapons systems, newly emboldened separatist leaders have abandoned all talk of a cease-fire. One of the top leaders of the Russian-backed rebels said Friday that his soldiers were “on the offensive” in several sectors, capitalizing on their capture of the Donetsk airport the day before.
Gubarev Kidnapped by Chechens - and Released; Fighters from Caucasus Take Over Krasnodon http://www.interpretermag.com/russia...-23-2015/#6483 … pic.twitter.com/WfuExMBq1e
http://top.rbc.ru/politics/24/01/201...7947c082c09464 … Ukraine says it's captured the former mayor of Debaltseve, who's suspected of organizing the DNR's referendum.
#Ukraine troops killed a bunch "rebels". One of which forgot to not bring his #Russia|n Army billet (issued in 2011).
pic.twitter.com/XnB4SksaBU
VIDEO "DNR" (#Russia soldiers) firing artillery in direction of #Mariupol #Donetsk http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJjkNd8m42o …
pic.twitter.com/DvURSGyVb4
Russian artillery is pounding Popasna & can soon be able to surround Ukrainian forces in Debaltseve, 1 of Ukraine's most strategic positions
How is it possible that social media can in fact identify specific Russian combat units inside the Ukraine on any given day when a photo or video pops up on the net and yet we hear virtually nothing of the kind from the US intelligence community?
We get vague comments like we see "signs" of this or that but nothing specific--why is that? For all the billions spent on them in the last 13 years and the sheer levels of technical abilities with the new ISR platforms and all we get are "signs"?
And social media is free and unclassified---even if they used the free stuff they would inherently classify it so the public then learns nothing--strange is it not?
Tactical marking on #Reuters photo from #Donetsk Jan 21 is #Russia's 20th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade
pic.twitter.com/ldfWkPtini
Have come long ago to believe the White House, the NSC and our diplomatic corp just really does not care as that would require development of a strategy and carrying out that strategy which they really do not want to do. Example--Congress passes a bill for defensive aid to the Ukraine--Russia declares it will be a really bad thing if the US sends weapons as they will have to do it to---then Obama freezes the bill with virtually no support even on the money side---AND yet Russia streams in massive weapons and troops AS we lay frozen in our own indecision and we still somehow think that is US leadership?
Second example---this was announced yesterday for the "spring"--by "spring" Russia will have settled the issue---this is a smoke and mirrors drill as it should have been done immediately after the Crimea and yet this WH and NSC simply did nothing hoping it would go away before they were seriously forced to make decisions--the decision time has arrived and yet still nothing.
Army Recognition @ArmyRecognition
#US #military advisers to start training National Guard of #Ukraine's troops in spring:
http://bit.ly/1F8QQbt
pic.twitter.com/sqpR558q0z
Putin reads Obama like a champ---and we do what again? I have been asking here at SWJ again and again- show me the strategy---there is none. Why do I say that---if the common man/woman in the streets of Houston TX cannot see it then it does not exist.
Even NATO is now sending signals to Russia they want to go back to business as usual. How did that happen in the face of this Russian declaration of war on the Ukraine.
Here is the problem---we just cannot some how get use to the fact that a "proxy" can in fact do things in the name of the supporting nation state that it could not do itself--so when the DNR declared war yesterday it was really the Russians declaring war and yet did we see anything coming out of DC other than words---and that was sparse at best.
You and I have had different opinions on just what is the greater threat--and presto NATO and JCoS Dempsey stated yesterday both Russia and terrorism are on the same level--my question is why did it take so long and now is Russia truly the number one threat as they have fully revealed their true intentions which have been there all along to see--by the way Russia is far easier to read than is IS.
By the way part of the problem is our own making--Ukraine needs badly financial support or they will default shortly---it costs them 7M a day to fight --Russian costs have to be in excess of 20M per day----but because of IMF rules they cannot support a country that is at "war" thus the Ukraine hangs onto the term ATO not using the correct term war that the have long ago wanted to use. Let the Ukraine declare this is a war of independence and then let's see the Russian reaction--by making this a supposedly internal dispute the US sidesteps making decisions.
Soros was recently so so so correct in his assumption --give the Ukraine 50B to end their financial crisis, then give them weapons and let them fight on their own terms.
Bill--here is IMHO the core problem with this administration---the headlines scream "war is exploding" but what occurred yesterday was the first time I have seen an "actual declaration of war" being voiced in the mass media--AND notice Putin and his FM backed it up immediately with their own comments AND not a single comment out of this administration--not an urgently called NSC, not an urgently called press conference, not a demand for an immediate UNSC meeting---nothing, zero, nada occurred and or was stated yesterday from this administration.
This is where we differ--Russia is the greatest actual threat seen by us since 9/11--why because a crazy has his finger on the nuclear button and he jokingly stated a few months ago he could destroy the US in under a half hour---nowhere have I seen that threat verbalized by IS--not even AQ has gone that far in their many threats they have uttered over the years.
Breaking: Mariupol city shelling reported
http://www.0629.com.ua/news/719982
pic.twitter.com/dpAIjgZoHO
Video from #Mariupol
#Mariupol: #Russkies #Grad|s hit residence buildings https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3P2MlDQhCs …”
BREAKING: Heavy rockets hit government-held #Ukraine port of #Mariupol: mayor’s office - AFP
#Azov regiment says there r wounded civilians as a result of E #Mariupol shelled. Resid area, market affected
https://www.facebook.com/azov.batali...85813928115396 …
Russian Grad rockets hit Mariupol Ukraine as Russian forces advance on the city. Civilian casualties are reported
pic.twitter.com/7zf3MDD1Z2
A Dutch bloggers view of the Ukrainian fighting and why the US/EU/NATO does not respond---am afraid I actually agree with him.
Really read it from end to end and you will notice I have mentioned much of it here on this thread---and regardless of my respect for Bill M Russia is inherently the greatest threat against the US in 25 years --OR has no one in the US noticed Putin has effectively disowned the nuclear concept of MAD and that is far more dangerous than a bunch of black flag waving fascist islamists trying to create a Sunni nation.
Putin has effectively with this current US president shown to the world the "fakeness of US foreign policy".
THERE is though an economic "nuclear weapon" that the US/EU have that will end Putin's aggression immediately and it is a two step process--step one cut off all Russian companies from any capital anywhere outside of China, and step two disconnect Russia from SWIFT---the core question is do western leaders have the courage to pull the trigger--this is where the blogger is correct--they do not.
Poroshenko's dilemma
"I am a president of peace. Not of war." said president Poroshenko.
The problem is: his country is at war whether he likes it or not.
But Poroshenko knows it is a war he can not win.
Why?
Because Putler has nukes (and many other nasty tricks of course).
E.V.E.R.Y single time Ukraine upscaled it's response to the Russian aggression to counter it, the Russians upscaled THEIRS even more.
And where does that end?
If the road of upscaling-aggression would be walked, in the end Putin would use nukes. And Ukraine does NOT have an answer to that.
So an all out war with Russia... Ukraine will loose that. Period.
And THUS Ukraine seeks help from the West and started with an unilateral ceasefire and later Minsk bilateral, EVEN THOUGH everybody knew the Russians would use it to restructure and reinforce their forces in Ukraine.
But Ukraine can not win the war against Putler without the West. That's why Poroshenko listens to them. To get their help. And THEY say: don't fight.
Because the West does not want war. Not in Europe but neither in Ukraine. It's bad for business!
So the West hesitates. Lingers. Tries to find a 'diplomatic solution'.
And they tell Poroshenko: do not fight, because we will sanction Putin. Show the world HE is the aggressor and not you and we will hit him in his pocket.
Why they do it this way? Why not send weapons?
Because Putin has nukes!
We don't want a nuclear war. We don't want upscaling-aggression all the time with the use of nukes in the end.
Sanctions are working pretty good when you look at the Ruble. But it's not good enough. Because it takes a loooot of TIME before it really has a good effect.
But ALSO because the West does not understand Putins game. Putin does not play by the rules. That is: OUR rules. Putin has his own set of rules and PRETENDS to play OUR game. That's why he is able to endlessly fool Western diplomats.
If sanctions hurt Putin... he will STEAL what he needs to survive. He STEALS Crimea. He STEALS coal from Donbas and sells it to Ukraine who has no option but to buy it. He steals a complete factory for helicopter engines from Donbas, transports it in his humanitarian white trucks and builds it up again somewhere in Russia.
Putin will STEAL from the West too. Mark my words. He will if he needs to do that for his survival.
Because NOBODY can get Putin and his gang. Why? He has nukes.
Imagine... one bomb on Berlin and Europe is out.
Because what we gonna do? Nuke back? And get an all out Nuke war? We don't want THAT.
And THUS the West has to allow Putin grabbing what he wants and HOPING things will get better anyways.
But what the West does not fully understand is that they have REALLY GONE MAD in Russia. Beyond imagination. To this point that almost all of them believe the crazy propaganda they produce themselves. It is a vicious circle they are in. A VERY aggressive one.
AND they have nukes... a lot of them!
That is a very dangerous combination. Madness and Nukes...
Putin is going to grab what he wants with force. If anybody wants to stop him, he will upscale. Our collective (Ukrainian AND European) dilemma is this: How much will we allow him to grab before we say it is enough? Until he is in Berlin?
You think he will not go to Berlin? Of course he will. U.N.L.E.S.S somebody or something stops him.
(That is... he and his gang, because they are all in it together.)
And therefor the ULTIMATE question we have to ask ourselves is this: how are we going to deal with Putlers nukes if he would start to use them?
Do we have an answer to that?
If we DON'T have this answer, he will eventually (between now and so many years) run all over Europe with his crappy tanks, with uncountable victims.
#Marioul East, the Kyivskyi Market directly hit.
Russian propaganda says its West.
via @Neiswestnij @molevitckiy
pic.twitter.com/CkI9JiJxdR
DNR denies it shelled #Mariupol "@vesti_news:
It was the heavier "Uragans" that Russians shelled on Mariupol today
pic.twitter.com/pvjyt1VX8W
Ukrainian MFA: At least 10 civilians including children have been killed at Mariupol shelling pic.twitter.com/qv2vBe0FOO
Azov in Mariupol reporting several dead and many wounded after MLRS hit a market http://u.afp.com/zNp
pic.twitter.com/5b4rXYNKEt
#Mariupol, Vostochny. Shelling from Novoazovsk direction.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKAq9nmm93A …
pic.twitter.com/uSL9ELEt39
The following this week were Russia's actions and statements:
1. the Russian FM in an open press conference states---we have influenced the DNR to pull back to the Minsk demarcation line
2. then the DNR declaration of war followed by two statements by Putin and his FM 1) the Ukraine did not respond to our proposals about the artillery pull back and 2) we are not involved in the internal affairs of the Ukraine
3. claimed they wanted the Normandy talks to proceed
4. recalled their signatures on the 13 November ceasefire agreement and claimed they still supported the Minsk demarcation line
5. then Russian troops go on a full attack
6. Putin claims in the face of lies--that the Ukrainian AF bombed Russian citizens
7. AND now importantly Putin sends "suggested changes to the Minsk demarcation lines" which if followed would create the "New Russia" and the Ukraine does not respond--the actual reason for this declaration of war and Russian offensive
8. Russia places Crimea troops on full alert after they shell Mariupol
Now the following below and we still think the IS is the direct threat--read the NYTs "Holy War" article?
Russia "is on a holy mission. It’s at war with the US..." - Moscow professor's take on escalating Ukraine war
http://nyti.ms/1uG3Vom
Kremlin Leader’s Distorted View of the World.
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com...tin-about-ukra... …
Here Putin claims that the Ukrainians used aviation to bomb Donbass in recent days.
http://www.kremlin.ru/news/47505
Russia is getting nervous about the possibility of being cut off from SWIFT - calls such move tantamount to war
http://on.ft.com/1Cm0oMC
URGENT! In connection with the events in #Mariupol, the #Russia|n Armed Forces in #Crimea alerted!
Zerkalo Nedeli publishes #Putin letter to #Poroshenko and shows his suggested new border with separatists
http://zn.ua/UKRAINE/pismo-putina-po...i-putinskaya-k... …
I'll start with a joke from the State of the Union Address.
I think I had a tear in my eye after he said that because I knew Americans were probably swallowing this line of bull hook, line, and sinker. Then again less than 40% of Americans actually watched it. Was there something on MTV that was more important? I'll stop . . . for now.Quote:
Second, we’re demonstrating the power of American strength and diplomacy. We’re upholding the principle that bigger nations can’t bully the small -- by opposing Russian aggression, and supporting Ukraine’s democracy, and reassuring our NATO allies. (Applause.)
Last year, as we were doing the hard work of imposing sanctions along with our allies, as we were reinforcing our presence with frontline states, Mr. Putin’s aggression it was suggested was a masterful display of strategy and strength. That's what I heard from some folks. Well, today, it is America that stands strong and united with our allies, while Russia is isolated with its economy in tatters. That’s how America leads -- not with bluster, but with persistent, steady resolve. (Applause.)
I'll repeat my hypothesis that our economic sanctions have made Putin stronger, at least in the near term. Over time they may have the desired effect, but I just don't see Putler swallowing his pride. Our sanctions, I suspect, will unify the Russian people behind Putin. I have been to Russia, and one thing I took away from my visit is that they're a proud people. To this day they have deep cultural memory of the hardship they endured during WWII. I always had respect for the stoicism the British displayed during WWII, but I think the Russians topped their performance in that regard. The point is we're not likely to compel them to change their behavior with sanctions alone.
Grand strategy, again in my opinion, is largely about exploiting challenges and opportunities when they arise to shape the world in way that is more beneficial to a nation's interests. Of course you have to understand the world, and have some idea of where you want to go to see and respond appropriately to the challenges and opportunities. Other actors have their grand strategy, and they see our sanctions as an opportunity to partner with Putler to mitigate the strength of the U.S. on the world stage. Hell, even Germany apparently signed a non-aggression pact with Russia recently. Keep the oil and gas flowing please. I'm not as convinced Russia is as isolated as the White House suggests. We also fail to understand the growing power of transnational crime (exponentially richer than now than a mere decade ago) to help sustain a country using illicit pathways facilitated by the forces of globalization. In short, we have a strategy based on the world the way it was in the 1980s, and even then it would be a weak strategy.
If Russia is at war with us, then absolutely you are right. If Russia is at war with a few peripheral states and playing chess with us, then we need to worry about the groups that are actually attacking our interests (destabilizing the Middle East, and reaching out beyond the ME), and threatening to attack the homeland. It certainly isn't infeasible to foresee a chemical weapon attack in the U.S. conducted by ISIL. You can counter, that isn't as dangerous as Russia launching a nuke at NYC and you would be right. The difference is ISIL seeks to attack the U.S., while Russia implies a threat if we attack them. That difference isn't subtle. We could probably reach out to ISIL and make a deal, we really don't mind if you over throw these illegitimate governments if you leave us along and keep the oil flowing, but it would run against the grain of our national values on human rights to embrace that approach.Quote:
Russia is inherently the greatest threat against the US in 25 years --OR has no one in the US noticed Putin has effectively disowned the nuclear concept of MAD and that is far more dangerous than a bunch of black flag waving fascist islamists trying to create a Sunni nation.
I don't know what the answer is with ISIL, but I don't agree the threat is isolated to Syria and Iraq. They don't pose an existential threat to us, but they do to many states in the region.
True, so Putin basically has two years to play with to pursue his ends until we have a new administration.Quote:
Putin has effectively with this current US president shown to the world the "fakeness of US foreign policy".
That would be an act of war, so it involves more than courage, it involves the will to fight a war with another nuclear power over an irrelevant state that has historically since its independence been one of the most corrupt countries in the world.Quote:
THERE is though an economic "nuclear weapon" that the US/EU have that will end Putin's aggression immediately and it is a two step process--step one cut off all Russian companies from any capital anywhere outside of China, and step two disconnect Russia from SWIFT---the core question is do western leaders have the courage to pull the trigger--this is where the blogger is correct--they do not.
It doesn't have to end, they could continue to trend to CvC's absolute war, but I suspect mitigating forces will limit the escalation at some point.Quote:
E.V.E.R.Y single time Ukraine upscaled it's response to the Russian aggression to counter it, the Russians upscaled THEIRS even more.
And where does that end?
That would certainly change the world strategically wouldn't it? It has been 70 years since an atomic bomb has been employed, and it shocked the world into developing other forms of warfare (proxy warfare) to avoid a nuclear confrontation which was widely recognized as a lose-lose proposal. I agree that we should certainly start thinking deeply about what it means if Russia actually uses a tactical or strategic nuke. Even threatening to use a nuclear weapon upsets the uneasy stability we have enjoyed since the end of the Cold War.Quote:
If the road of upscaling-aggression would be walked, in the end Putin would use nukes. And Ukraine does NOT have an answer to that.
So an all out war with Russia... Ukraine will loose that. Period.
So in reality it isn't Russia that is isolated, it is Ukraine.Quote:
And THUS Ukraine seeks help from the West and started with an unilateral ceasefire and later Minsk bilateral, EVEN THOUGH everybody knew the Russians would use it to restructure and reinforce their forces in Ukraine.
But Ukraine can not win the war against Putler without the West. That's why Poroshenko listens to them. To get their help. And THEY say: don't fight.
It is all about the market state now, not about ideology (for the West). That is why we think sanctions are so powerful. We suffer from the mirror effect and assume others will bend to the forces of the market like we would.Quote:
Because the West does not want war. Not in Europe but neither in Ukraine. It's bad for business! So the West hesitates. Lingers. Tries to find a 'diplomatic solution'.
And they tell Poroshenko: do not fight, because we will sanction Putin. Show the world HE is the aggressor and not you and we will hit him in his pocket.
and the point is?Quote:
Why they do it this way? Why not send weapons?
Because Putin has nukes!
We don't want a nuclear war. We don't want upscaling-aggression all the time with the use of nukes in the end.
Putin doesn't fool us, we fool ourselves.Quote:
Putin does not play by the rules. That is: OUR rules. Putin has his own set of rules and PRETENDS to play OUR game. That's why he is able to endlessly fool Western diplomats.
He just described a limitation, so their strategy should embrace that limitation and seek to impose costs on Russia short of a nuclear war. Russia has vulnerabilities well beyond the borders of Ukraine that could be targeted by Ukraine SOF operatives, insurgent groups in other locations on Russia's border could be supported, etc. Sounds like the author is only looking at this conflict from a symmetrical perspective.Quote:
Because NOBODY can get Putin and his gang. Why? He has nukes.
Imagine... one bomb on Berlin and Europe is out.
Because what we gonna do? Nuke back? And get an all out Nuke war? We don't want THAT.
Hope and smoke and mirrors pretty much describes the world view of our Department of State. Diplomats in fairy tale land.Quote:
And THUS the West has to allow Putin grabbing what he wants and HOPING things will get better anyways.
We should understand this, we produce a lot of our own propaganda and embrace it.Quote:
But what the West does not fully understand is that they have REALLY GONE MAD in Russia. Beyond imagination. To this point that almost all of them believe the crazy propaganda they produce themselves. It is a vicious circle they are in. A VERY aggressive one.
Pakistan and North Korea have nukes too. Very dangerous, this madness and nukes, yet at least so far the mad men haven't used them.Quote:
That is a very dangerous combination. Madness and Nukes...
He'll only upscale to the point he thinks he can win, but of course we no longer have a credible deterrent capacity in his view due to our political weakness.Quote:
Putin is going to grab what he wants with force. If anybody wants to stop him, he will upscale. Our collective (Ukrainian AND European) dilemma is this: How much will we allow him to grab before we say it is enough? Until he is in Berlin?
This is complete hyperbole.Quote:
You think he will not go to Berlin? Of course he will. U.N.L.E.S.S somebody or something stops him.
(That is... he and his gang, because they are all in it together.)
Disagree, but only time will tell. I think his objectives are more limited to regaining influence over former Warsaw Pact countries minus Germany, but he'll have economic leverage over the market state of Germany with his oil and gas reserves.Quote:
And therefor the ULTIMATE question we have to ask ourselves is this: how are we going to deal with Putlers nukes if he would start to use them?
Do we have an answer to that?
If we DON'T have this answer, he will eventually (between now and so many years) run all over Europe with his crappy tanks, with uncountable victims