Originally Posted by
OUTLAW 09
The Russian eight phases of their new UW strategic strategy called "new generational warfare or non linear warfare" which we call hybrid warfare.
First Phase: non-military asymmetric warfare (encompassing information, moral, psychological,ideological, diplomatic, and economic measures as part of a plan to establish a favorable political, economic, and military setup).
This phase already kicked in –in 2012 with the beginnings of the Ukrainian internal discussions and civil society discussions on joining the EU. Remember in 2008/2009 Putin stated he had no problems with the Ukraine joining the EU. It went into overdrive with the advent of the Maidan and really overdrive when the former corrupt Ukrainian President was basically thrown out of office. Remember even his own political party—Party of Regions voted overwhelmingly to strip him of his position.
Second Phase: special operations to mislead political and military leaders by coordinated measures carried out by diplomatic channels, media, and top government and military agencies by leaking false data, orders, directives, and instructions.
After the Crimea and Maidan social media began an extensive search of social media sources epseically the Russian FaceBook VK and have identified a number of Russian Spetsnaz who had been in the area of the Maidan and definitely in the Ukraine BEFORE Crimea.
Third Phase: intimidation, deceiving, and bribing government and military officers, with the objective of making them abandon their service duties.
This phase was initiated with the Russian military annexation of Crimea and with the arrival of FSB/GRU officer Girkin and this team from Crimea and their take over of numerous Donbas towns and cities especially Donetsk. They failed to takeover Kharkiv. Mariupol and Odessa –a significant failure tactically speaking.
Fourth Phase: destabilizing propaganda to increase discontent among the population, boosted by the arrival of Russian bands of militants, escalating subversion.
Russian information warfare against the Ukraine began actually in a serious fashion in 2012 and still continues.
Fifth Phase: establishment of no-fly zones over the country to be attacked, imposition of blockades, and extensive use of private military companies in close cooperation with armed opposition units.
A Russian military de facto no fly zone was established with their invasion of August 2014 when they sent in numerous AD weapons systems and with the continuous shot down of Ukrainian military aircraft culminating the in the shot down of the civilian airliner MH17.
Sixth Phase: commencement of military action, immediately preceded by large-scale reconnaissance and subversive missions. All types, forms, methods, and forces, including special operations forces, space, radio, radio engineering, electronic, diplomatic, and secret service intelligence, and industrial espionage.
This phase began in the Ukraine in August 2014 with social media open source analysis indicating that Russian Spetsnaz had been in the Ukraine in 2013. Russian GRU/FSB officers in my opinion have been coming and going from the Ukraine long before 2012 as a part and parcel of the then Ukrainian State Security known as the SBU.
Seventh Phase: combination of targeted information operation, electronic warfare operation, aerospace operation, continuous airforce harassment, combined with the use of high precision weapons launched from various platforms (long-range artillery, and weapons based on new physical principles, including microwaves, radiation, non-lethal biological weapons).
This phase has been ongoing in eastern Ukraine since the Russian military invasion of August 2014 with now over 400 tanks, thousands of APCs and hundreds of artillery and MRLSs sent by Russia to the Ukraine not to mention 9K plus Russian troops and over 2K Russian mercenary advisors and 55K Russian troops on a high state of alert parked directly on the Ukrainian borders.
Eighth Phase: roll over the remaining points of resistance and destroy surviving enemy units by special operations conducted by reconnaissance units to spot which enemy units have survived and transmit their coordinates to the attacker's missile and artillery units; fire barrages to annihilate the defender's resisting army units by effective advanced weapons; airdrop
operations to surround points of resistance; and territory mopping-up operations by ground troops.
Russian troops and her mercenaries have been attempting this since the Russian invasion of August 2014, the Debaltseve pocket and all along the demarcation line drawn in Minsk 2 in February 2015. What has been missing is the use of airdropped troops—Russian airborne troops have though be coupled with armored units as a spearhead type of force—ie their invasion of August 2014 when 50 got killed and 10 were captured after a heavy arty strike and subsequent ground attack on them by the UAF.
There has been virtually no further territorial gains made by Russian troops and her mercenaries since February 2015.
In the last four weeks Russian troops and her mercenaries have been conducting a rather slow stepped ground offensive coupled with intensive artillery and rocket shellings gaining basically nothing.
Slow stepped meaning keeping the fighting just a slight tad under the radar so as to not draw attention to it by mainstream media and Western leaders ie Obama, Hollande and Merkel WHO all seem to think “the ceasefire is largely holding” which flies in the face of over 100 attacks a day and when the Russian mercenaries themselves claim 30 attacks a day are in fact a “ceasefire”.
So again all phases of the Russian “new generational warfare” have been engaged by Russia but nothing as been politically, economically or militarily achieved outside of what is anchored in the Minsk 1 and 2 agreements—with the Ukraine closer and closer to NATO and the EU which Putin claimed he wanted to hinder.
Thus the statement---the so called Russian “new generational warfare” being practiced currently by Russia in the eastern Ukraine has all but failed as a doctrine as it has not achieve the results it was designed for.
Instead of creating a “frozen” situation impacting the Ukraine in fact Russia has been “frozen” in place and the costs are getting severe militarily, politically and economically.