Ripples from Mali: events plus outside Mali
Much of the rhetoric and reporting on Mali has stressed the dangers from the creation of a 'Sahelistan', a safe haven for AQ and allies. As the situation inside Mali develops I thought a second, parallel thread would be necessary.
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No-one in Paris - or any other Western capital - wants parts of Mali to become like Afghanistan in the 1990s - a place where acts of terror further afield could be planned and where people would then ask why something was not done earlier.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-21018675
The fate of French hostages, from the Sahel to Somalia, is unclear. From the BBC link some details:
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Pierre Legrand, 26, Daniel Larribe, 59, Thierry Dole, 29, and Marc Feret, 43, were kidnapped in northern Niger in 2010 by Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM); Philippe Verdon and Serge Lazarevic, were kidnapped in northern Mali in November 2011 by AQIM; Gilberto Rodriguez Leal, 61, was kidnapped in western Mali in November 2012 by the Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (Mujao); and Francis Collomp, 63, was kidnapped in Nigeria by Islamist group Ansaru
A ripple in southern Algeria
For a very long time attacks on the Algeria oil and natural gas fields in southern Algeria has been an issue, IIRC with very few attacks, even during the recent civil war (not ended, but quieter).
So is this the first 'ripple' from Mali? Note the facts are not clear; an attack on a gas field base, with expat staff kidnapped @ Tiguentourine? Three to six foreigners taken (two Japanese) and two guards killed:http://elwatan.com/actualite/attaque...199732_109.php
Two BP staff killed and 'Libyan' accents on a later report.
Link to map, zoom out to see:http://mapcarta.com/17299028
Tiguentourine is 1300 kms south of Algiers and a long way from Bamoko.
As Andrew Lebovich notes:
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An attack on an oil facility in southern Algeria is, well, a big deal.
Slightly different report on:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-21042659
Armchair response to African questions
Kingjaja asked:
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Have you noticed that Boko Haram has been bit quiet over the past few months? It could be that the jihadis have moved over to Mali, Nigerian security is more effective or a bit of both.
No I hadn't, but unless it is an outrage Nigeria rarely gets a mention here, nor do i search for updates. There was a Tweet today that the FT had an article making that suggestion - militants had gone to Mali - but I am unable to identify the report.
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Whatever happens, if Mali proves too hot to handle, they'll hop over to Niger and yes, Nigeria. Nigeria is the major prize - and it keeps me worried.
I am aware that African borders are to say the least porous, even more so in this region. Defeated, injured and deserting militants may appear, but they may also have "had enough".
Strategically Nigeria is far more important that Mali or 'Sahelistan'; just Pakistan is far more important than Afghanistan. That does not mean those involved in decision-making stand back beforehand. I do find the AU and other African nations welcome for the French action useful, but double-edged as it enables Africa to let others - France plus - do the "heavy lifting".
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Will it be possible for the French and ECOWAS to "destroy" all the jihadis - I doubt it. They will have a large expanse of poorly governed space to ply their trade.
Granted, the French could control Bamako, Niamey and the major towns, but what about the rest of this space?
The jihadis can be destroyed as an effective threat if they stay together and do not hide amongst the people - in the settled parts of Mali, i.e. along the river. Once they leave for the "outback" and go silent that is when pursuing them and killing them will get hard - for any force. Incidentally I do not see ECOWAS going into the "outback". There are IMHO options to degrade the jihadi threat in the "outback", notably over access to fuel and water. Jihadis will not walk around, even if feasible in the environment.
In the end the French and other have bought or could buy time for Mali to reform, not just training the military.
France Confronts Terror Threat in Africa, Risks Attack at Home
A short analysis from Raffaello Pantucci, newly based at RUSI (London):
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The French assault on militant jihadists in Mali reflects a recognition in Paris that the long-brewing Islamist trouble in North Africa is something that has started to spiral out of control, and has potential to have a direct impact within France.
Link:http://www.rusi.org/analysis/comment.../#.UPfVmaF-xEB
The old ghosts of the "dirty war" return
A short analysis of current events in Algeria via the BBC:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-21078430
First a reminder about Algeria:
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Historically, it is the cradle of armed Islamist struggle in North Africa.
(Closing with) It is as if the old ghosts of the "dirty war" came back from the sands of Mali to haunt Algiers, bringing home the spectre of armed groups which it had taken the Algerian army a decade of great efforts to expel.
History repeating itself?
Each time we have a crisis there is a surge of comment as everyone seeks to gain knowledge and insight. New experts appear, hitherto unknown experts get publicity and credit after years of study.
That caveat aside I was amazed to read this FP article, which opens with:
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In 1893, in West Africa's upper Niger River basin -- what is now central Mali -- the French army achieved a victory that had eluded it for almost 50 years: the destruction of the jihadist Tukulor Empire, one of the last great challenges to France's rule in the region. The Tukulor Empire's first important conquest had come decades earlier, in the early 1850s, when its fanatical founder, El Hajj Umar Tall, led Koranic students and hardened soldiers to topple the Bambara kingdoms along the banks of the Niger. Umar imposed a strict brand of Islamic law, reportedly enslaving or killing tens of thousands of non-believers over a half century.....Now, the jihadists are back and so are the French -- the two sides slugging it out over the same real estate they fought over 120 years ago.
Link:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...ntry?page=full
The author Peter Chilson has a new e-book ' We Never Knew Exactly Where: Dispatches from the Lost Country of Mali'.
A 'flood' from Libya or did the Mali's army destabilise?
Bill,
You cite a WaPo article:
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The region was destabilized by a flood of weaponry and armed Tuareg nomads who had fought for Gaddafi but escaped across Libya’s borders. Many of those mercenaries have since teamed with AQIM to take control of the northern half of Mali.
As I have posted elsewhere a recent article points out that Tuareg elements of Mali's army, trained by the USA, deserted to the "other side". One wonders what is the truth?
Post 230 on the parallel Mali thread (cited in part)
A strange NYT article on the US role before the coup in Mali in mid-2012, one wonders why this had been in the public domain and challenges the value of the US DoD programme across West Africa:http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/14/wo...nted=all&_r=2&
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According to one senior officer, the Tuareg commanders of three of the four Malian units fighting in the north at the time defected to the insurrection “at the crucial moment,” taking fighters, weapons and scarce equipment with them. He said they were joined by about 1,600 other defectors from within the Malian Army, crippling the government’s hope of resisting the onslaught.
I have a suspicion that much of the writing before the French action, especially in the USA, followed a legend that is was this 'flood' from Libya that split Mali. A convenient, acceptable legend when in fact Mali was a weak state and even weaker when part of the army being Tuareg deserted.
It was not quiet before the gas facility siege
Under the microscope a hitherto unknown analyst & blogger has provided a snapshot of Jihadist activity in the border region of Illizi Province, Algeria in 2011 and 2012 will follow shortly:http://www.makingsenseofjihad.com/20...n-algeria.html