Yemen - a catch all thread for 2007-2011
Moderator's note 31/12/09: new thread for Yemen created, merging several old threads to give background to a country that is expected to feature more in 2010.
27 May LA Times - Modern Yemen Embraces the Tribe by Megan Stack.
Quote:
... Pervasive and often overlooked by outsiders, the ancient network of tribes remains one of the most potent forces in the Middle East. The tribes are older than the nations and borders that carve up the Arab world, older than the oil industry, older than the governments in the United States or Europe. They are an older — and, some believe, an even stronger — social force than Islam.
Rather than withering away as the Arab world succumbs to modernity, tribes are only getting more powerful. Weak central governments, civil war in Iraq, an identity crisis born of the clash between modernity and tradition — all of these factors have fortified the role of the tribes...
Somali refugees 'forced to join Yemen rebel war'
From the BBC: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/mid...st/8416285.stm
Quote:
Hundreds of Somali refugees are being forced at gunpoint to join rebels fighting in northern Yemen, a Somali diplomat in Aden has told the BBC.
Yemen - a catch all thread for 2010
'Twas the night before Christmas, when all thro' the desert
Not a creature was stirring, not even a terrorist;
Their AK’s were placed on the floor with care,
In hopes that Osama soon would be there;
The jihadists were nestled all snug in their beds,
While visions of 72 virgins danc'd in their heads,
When out on the roof there arose such a clatter,
They sprang from their bed to see what was the matter.
Away to the window they flew like a flash,
tore open the shutter, and threw up the sash.
When, what to their wondering eyes should appear,
but warplanes armed to the gills.
Link
Quote:
Yemen's military hit suspected al-Qaida hideouts, possibly killing a radical cleric linked to the U.S. Army major accused of the Fort Hood mass shooting, as a gathering of top militant leaders was targeted in a remote mountain valley Thursday in strikes carried out with U.S. intelligence help, officials said.
At least 30 militants were believed to be killed in the second such strike in a week. Pentagon officials could not confirm Thursday whether radical cleric Anwar Al-Awlaki was killed in the strike.
Merry Christmas.
NY Times: U.S. quietly takes terror war to Yemen
Given recent events, it seems that Yemen is figuring more prominently into our, umm, overseas contingency operations.
U.S. quietly takes terror war to Yemen
Covert front against al-Qaida was opened a year ago, military officers say
Quote:
WASHINGTON - In the midst of two unfinished major wars, the United States has quietly opened a third, largely covert front against Al Qaeda in Yemen.
A year ago, the Central Intelligence Agency sent many field operatives with counterterrorism experience to the country, according a former top agency official. At the same time, some of the most secretive Special Operations commandos have begun training Yemeni security forces in counterterrorism tactics, senior military officers said.
The Pentagon is spending more than $70 million over the next 18 months, and using teams of Special Forces, to train and equip Yemeni military, Interior Ministry and coast guard forces, more than doubling previous military aid levels.
Gordon Brown on the Yemen
The UK Prime Minister chimes in:
Quote:
Mr Brown also wrote about the rising importance of Yemen as "both an incubator and potential safe haven for terrorism". "Pushed out of Afghanistan and increasingly dispersed over the mountains of Pakistan, al-Qaeda's affiliates and allies - in ungoverned or under-governed areas like parts of Yemen, The Sahel and Somalia - have raised their profile," he said. He said the UK was already one of Yemen's leading donors and it was increasing support to its government through intelligence assistance, training of counter-terrorism units and development programmes.
Link that includes this passage:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/8436758.stm
Background and immediate options
An article by Jonathan Winer, ex-State Dept., on the immediate options in the Yemen and background. I only cite two paragraphs:
Quote:
President Saleh's strategy for the future of his country is to secure power for his son, who recently turned up as the receipient of corrupt funds from a telecomms company in a U.S. criminal bribery case. The question for the U.S. and other governments is whether it is smart to invest in Yemen's security forces through training and assistance aimed at countering terrorism at the very time that Yemen has been brought to a critical phase of instability due to President Saleh's misrule.
Before getting further into support of President Saleh's regime, conrete tests may be in order. Work with Yemen to identify the locations of Naser Abdel-Karim Wahishi and former Guantanamo detainee Saeed Ali Shehri, two leaders of Al-Qaeda in Yemen. Add in the current address in Yemen of Anwar al-Awlaki, whose calls to action helped to inspire the Fort Hood terrorist murders, and who was nearly killed by a US drone December 24. Carry out raids (by drone or in person) to punish, incapacitate, arrest, and deter. Repeat as needed. Successful operations will surely result in continued international assistance, facilitating help to those who deserve something better than a failed state. If instead, critical counter-terrorist operations with Yemen experience leaks and failures, with the al-Awlaki's surviving raids to continue their threats to public safety, other strategies may be needed, including ones that are not predicated on members of the Saleh family being in charge of the country forever.
Full article: http://counterterrorismblog.org (currently lead article)
Akhbar min al-Yemen wa Khatara
Yemen - a catch all thread for 2010
Yemen’s Strategic Boxes
Entry Excerpt:
Yemen’s Strategic Boxes
by Dr. Lawrence E. Cline
Download the full article: Yemen’s Strategic Boxes
As happens episodically, Yemen is once more in the news. The December 2009 raids on al Qaida with some level of US support – together with Saudi intervention in the north of Yemen and the abortive Delta flight bombing claimed by al Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula in Yemen – have re-emphasized Yemen’s importance in regional and international security.
One problem with much of the analysis of Yemen is that it tends to emphasize the country’s impact on external security. Particularly within the US, the stress has been on al Qaida’s operations in and from Yemen. Although perhaps justified in terms of overall US strategy, this limited view of issues within Yemen that affect its internal security can create strategic myopia. Ultimately, these broader internal issues are crucial in how well and how willing the government of Yemen will cooperate with other countries.
From Sana’a’s perspective, there are three critical ongoing threats to internal security. Al Qaida certainly is one, but the other two – the Houthi uprising in the north and political unrest in the south around Aden – probably are viewed with considerably more concern by the Yemen government. Although each threat is significant in its own right, the possibility of overlap among them in the future is even more worrisome. These specific threats are even further exacerbated by a long list of broader social, economic, and political stressors, all of which impact on Yemen’s capability to respond adequately.
Download the full article: Yemen’s Strategic Boxes
Lawrence E. Cline, PhD, is an associate professor with American Military University, and a contract instructor with the Counterterrorism Fellowship Program, Center for Civil-Military Relations, Naval Postgraduate School. He has worked in over 25 countries with this program in national counterterrorism strategy development. He is a retired Military Intelligence officer and Middle East Foreign Area Officer, with service in Lebanon, El Salvador, Desert Storm, Somalia, and OIF.
--------
Read the full post and make any comments at the SWJ Blog.
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.
Are we caving to AQ threats?
Sure seems like it when we close our Embassy in Yemen and announce that it was due to fears of AQ retaliation for our support of the Yemeni government (http://tinyurl.com/y9mhuxb).
Strategic Communication is the intersection of our actions and our messages, and this action cannot send a more clear message to our adversaries -- although we, our allies, and civilized people across the world are pounding you at every turn, your threats will make us cower inside our outposts in the countries that need our support the most.
I know the counterargument -- DoS aren't Soldiers and are not sent there to be attacked -- but aren't they there to represent the US and doesn't retreating within our ramparts give AQ the psychological advantage over us? We need, among other things, to reassure our valiant allies that we will stand with them throughout the fight. Do we do that when we close our doors? Did YM close down in response to the many threats and actual attacks they have experienced?
Sometimes, the More You Protect Your Force, the Less Secure You May Be
Lady journalist blog on Yemen
Worth checking: http://www.ginnyhill.co.uk/ and the short intro says:
Quote:
Ginny Hill is a freelance journalist and filmmaker, writing and broadcasting on the Middle East and the Horn of Africa. She has worked in Djibouti, Egypt, Gaza, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Somaliland and Yemen.
Ginny is the author of Yemen: Fear of Failure, a Chatham House briefing paper (pub. 1998).
Not updated daily, but may offer a different viewpoint.
Allies in the Yemen - t'is a strange world
Just found this in The Daily Telegraph (UK): http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...-al-Qaeda.html
Raises some interesting points I'd not read recently in the links here.
Nuisance value as a source of livelihood
The way the modern world is structured right now (partly or mostly led by the US), populations have various ways to make a living: some are obvious and "traditional", like agriculture. Some are equally obvious and modern (like industrial manufacturing) and some are based on extraction of valuable minerals (the biggest example being oil). Since in the last category, the extraction is done by a relatively small number of people, frequently foreigners, the way the local population gets the money is frequently problematic. Someone grabs power and takes the money on behalf of the whole nation, but corruption and widespread dissatisfaction with the way the wealth is being shared are almost a given.
All this is old hat. But there seems to be another way to make a living that is less obvious or less noted: i.e. nuisance value. One could argue that if the US ends up paying tens of billions per year to afghanistan to help them "develop", that will be a good use of nuisance value by the afghan people...after all, other equally poor countries are not getting injections of billions of dollars and thousands of highly paid aid workers. Pakistan has more of a real economy than Afghanistan, but the army certainly sells nuisance value too (pay us well or the whole region blows up)....before paknationalists jump on me, I will propose that the same model may apply to the US if the real economy continues to decline. And its not really new. Many of the great conquerors of history were basically using military prowess to grab other people's money, this is just a more refined version of the same scam.
If Yemeni oil is running out, does it not make sense for Yemen to sell nuisance value??
Yemen - a Saudi sphere of responsibility?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Cavguy
(Q1) Is Yemen's potential explosion really an American concern beyond AQ exports of terror? (Q2) Or should we let the Saudis handle it, since they have a well equipped army, money, and regional interest at stake?
Cavguy,
Having read many of the links here I hazard an "armchair" answer.
Q1. No, the primary responsibility lies with the people of the Yemen, who appear to be poorly served by their thirty year long government.
Q2. No, part of the problem is the Saudi's involvement, pushing their version of Islam, bribing tribal chiefs; note the revolt by the Al-Huthi is by a Shia tribe and whilst the Saudis have a military capability is it one that is effective in aggressive action? They maybe part of the solution.
Yemen: a few pointers from RUSI (UK)
Two post-Detroit articles are on the RUSI website 'home page' under Analysis: http://www.rusi.org/ which contain valuable points:
1) Al-Qa'ida in Yemen: Situation Update and Recommendations for Policy Makers
Quote:
..neither the threat of this attack nor the danger posed by AQAP to Western interests should be exaggerated. The attempt was a terrorist attack not only in the sense that it targeted civilians, but also in that it instilled fear in Western governments and populations far out of proportion to the actual threat..
Sheikh Naji Bin Abdul Aziz al-Shayef, the leader of the Bakeel tribe, recently stated: The tribes of the Bakeel, whose members number around seven million, stand together against the so-called Al-Qaeda in Yemen and its criminal elements...
The London conference should:
Quote:
Acknowledge that this is a regional, geo-strategic issue. Yemen is part of an arc of instability and solutions to its systemic problems must involve Arab and African partners.
b. Yemen requires a comprehensive approach. A dependence solely on security force assistance and targeted counter-terrorism operations will prove counter-productive.
c. Whilst attempting to take a holistic approach, it is essential to disaggregate the threats emerging from the differing security challenges in Yemen. Aggregating all those who oppose the Yemeni government or Western policies as terrorists is a mistake. It took several years for militaries to learn the lesson that not all Sunni insurgents in Iraq were members of Al-Qa'ida and that the Taliban are not synonymous with Al-Qa'ida in Afghanistan. The same mistake should not be made when considering AQAP and other armed actors in Yemen.
d. Radicalisation in Yemen is no longer just a problem for Yemen. Significant numbers of non-Yemenis like Abdulmutallab are travelling to Yemen, resulting in an increased risk of radicalisation and of the subsequent threat of terrorist attacks outside Yemen. Millions of US dollars spent in development assistance in countries like Yemen may prove more effective than billions of dollars of additional defence and homeland security expenditure. Prioritising development is not a soft option, nor merely a good thing to do - it is an act of enlightened self-interest.
Link:http://www.rusi.org/analysis/comment...4B475DF54843E/
2) After the Christmas Day bomb plot: where now for counter-terrorism? This is a wider ranging article and has a section on the Yemen, which I quote at length:
Quote:
Discussion will naturally focus on the interpretation of Islam in Yemen and whether its theological landscape is conducive to extremists.
This will get rather complicated, however. Historically, Yemen, particularly the Hadramawt valley, has been at the centre of a very sophisticated and anti-anarchical mode of Islamic thought, relying on mainstream Islamic theology, law and spirituality. The results have blossomed into more nuanced and mainstream readings, albeit from a conservative perspective, with a following currently spanning the United States, Europe, East Africa and through to East Asia. Yemen achieved this without state interference or involvement - peaceful preachers have independently and without state patronage encouraged their flock to work within civil society to battle society's ills, marginalise extremes, and encourage indigenous notions of Islamic expression.
Thus, in the UK, authorities have encouraged Yemeni-trained preachers to visit (through the Radical Middle Way initiative), and Muslim communities have been sending their sons and daughters to the Hadhramawt valley for decades now to learn from their example. They come back as vibrant functionaries, often with few if any resources. The effects of their work are yet to be calculated, but it is likely that without their input, the problem of violent extremism we face would be far more pronounced.
To be sure, the positive influence of this Islamic tendency is not always apparent in a Yemen ravaged by conflict. Extremists do certainly operate. But that is more to do with Yemen's fragmented insurgencies and ungoverned spaces, which foreign extremists exploit to find safe haven. Yet, the predominant modes of religious interpretation are not conducive to a large-scale 'Takfiri' type movement, which Al-Qa'ida-style operatives could draw recruits from....
Finally, with regards to Yemen, it is important to understand the country before resorting to hasty reactions. The Yemeni authorities take seriously the threat that faces them, and they have been very clear and open about where they stand. We need to increase co-operation with those authorities, and improve their capacity to the job they know how to do best - not turn them, and the local population, against us.
Link:http://www.rusi.org/analysis/comment...4B475B34EBDA8/
First time visitor reflects
The long time BBC Middle East correspondent on his visit to the Yemen: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programme...nt/8448393.stm and available on Ipod etc.
His closing sentences:
Quote:
Many people here have told me that the only way forward is to rebuild Yemen so that its people will not be seduced by the jihadists' violent vision of a glorious martyr's death. That will take time. You can choose, someone said - quick results or good results. Not both.