Should we really be so afraid of a nuclear North Korea?
A different point of view from two academics who specialize in Korean matters, one American, one in the UK. Two paragraphs near the start:
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Successive US governments have used a range of carrots and sticks to entice or pressure the North Korean leadership to give up its nuclear programme. The North’s missile launches and nuclear tests in 2016 make plain that these efforts have failed; in short, the West has to accept that it is now a nuclear power and focus instead on limiting the risks a nuclear North Korea presents. But it also pays to consider what sounds like a perverse question: could a North Korean bomb actually benefit both the country’s people and the world at large?
They conclude:
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As far as Pyongyang is concerned, its militaristic strategy has worked: It has kept the Kim government internally stable, the population dependent on the government, and the country’s enemies at bay. Accepting the country’s nuclear status, rather than trying to head it off with sanctions and threats, could bring it back to the diplomatic bargaining table.
Link:https://theconversation.com/should-we-really-be-so-afraid-of-a-nuclear-north-korea-71855?
Brothers fall out and needles are used
A marked contrast here between the BBC and Daily Teelgraph's reporting on the suspicious death in Malaysia of Kim Jong Un's older brother. From the DT:
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Quoting government sources, other media reports claim Mr Kim died after being jabbed by a poisoned needle by two women in the city's airport. The women are believed to be North Korean agents but have so far been able to evade a police hunt.
The possible poisoning was not mentioned on BBC News a few minutes ago.
BBC:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-38971655
DT has quite an extensive background report:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017...spies-poison1/
Why North Korea Seems to Be Pushing Trump Toward a Potential Crisis
Why North Korea Seems to Be Pushing Trump Toward a Potential Crisis
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The Basis of Negotiations with North Korea Should be Quiet Old-Fashioned Kissingerian
North Korean Ships Head Home After China Orders Coal Returned
So China decides "No more coking coal from North Korea". Who gains? Well both Russia & USA are now exporting coking coal to China!
This report starts with:
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A fleet of North Korean cargo ships is heading home to the port of Nampo, the majority of it fully laden, after the Chinese regime ordered its trading companies to return coal from the isolated country, shipping data shows. Following repeated missile tests that drew international criticism, the Chinese regime banned all imports of North Korean coal on Feb. 26, cutting off the country’s most important export product.
Link:http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/2241283-north-korean-ships-head-home-after-china-orders-coal-returned/?
China’s leaders and citizens are losing patience with North Korea
A UK academic comment:
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The relationship between public opinion and foreign policy is a complex one for any country to manage. That’s especially true in China; while its authoritarian political institutions might seem relatively insulated from popular sentiment compared to their counterparts in many democracies, no sensible leader in any state can completely ignore what their citizens think. All this said, many people in China still believe their country should support Pyongyang. They aren’t necessarily big fans of Kim Jong-un or his signature hairstyle; they’re more worried that should his government collapse, a violent chapter in history might repeat itself.
With a reminder how domestic policy could restrain China:
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..very few Chinese parents, many of whom have only one child thanks to the country’s family planning policy, would ever take the idea of military conflict lightly.
Link:https://theconversation.com/chinas-leaders-and-citizens-are-losing-patience-with-north-korea-75262?
OOOOOOH FUUUUUUUC.....: clarity
WaPo has an article assessing the missiles plus shown yesterday and notes the tubes content is unknown. It relies on Jeffrey Lewis aka @ArmsControlWonk and cites his colleague, Melissa Hanham who authored the "Oooh" tweet.
She noted:
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Solid fuel is very significant because they can launch these missiles much faster and with a smaller entourage than with #liquid-fueled missiles, making them much harder for the United States, South Korea and Japan to spot from satellites.
Link:https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...ff-one-by-one/
Analyzing North Korea's Missile Parade: Prescription For Fear, Dose Of Reality
From Tyler Rogoway at TheWarzone: http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone...ose-of-reality
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An unprecedented number eyes were focused on Pyongyang yesterday for this year's Day of The Sun military parade. Largely this was because the rhetoric between the US and North Korea has never been so hot, and there has been real posturing to go along with it. Intelligence agencies and journalists alike watch the display closely to see what new military capabilities the Kim regime will put on display, and as a result you probably woke up to headlines like "North Korea shows off sinister new ICBM" and the like.
It seems like many are quick to forget that this event happens on parade grounds, not a military technology testing and proving ground. Parades usually have floats, and big ominous looking missile canisters, and even missiles themselves, can be just that—elaborate displays—and nothing more.
We know what missile capabilities the North Koreans have actually tested, and what remains on their wish list.
The War Zone was among the first to warn of Kim's changing missile development strategy, and we have followed every major launch very closely since.
There is no question North Korea has gained incredible momentum towards a true intercontinental ballistic missile and submarine-launched ballistic missile capability over the last year, but that doesn't mean rolling a big transporter-erector-launcher (TEL) with a massive missile canister on top proves that there is anything inside.
It is best to think of this event as a place at which Pyongyang can make their end-game aspirations a brief but synthetic reality—a blank canvas for which to paint their most deadly hopes and dreams.
So no, just because it rolls through Kim Il Sung Square does not make it real—at least not real yet. But that also doesn't mean that it is all fake—far from it. Once again, many of these systems are actually in testing, and outgrowths of their original designs are both logical and expected...
Face-to-face with top North Korean diplomat
Citing Bill M in part:
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AND you read the Deputy FMs comments that "Gadhafi was crazy for giving up his nuclear drive in exchange of being accepted into the West...WHAT did it get him...shot in a ditch" ...
I skimmed the BBC's interview with the Deputy FM this morning, but will now read it fully. The reporter concluded:
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The message is clear. Militarised and isolated, North Korea has the right to follow its own path and, Mr Han apparently believes, no one will be able to stop it.So far, he has been proven right.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-39626011
To Outlaw 09 RE: North Korea
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Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
I find it interesting that while all state what they state the only American with a relative deep negotiation skills with NK in eight trips there for a long number of days Bill Richards [sic] who has no dog in the fight suggested the following…
I trust Bill Richardson on North Korea as much as I trust Dennis Rodman.
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Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
All previous US comments whether from Reagan...Bush...Obama and now Trump has [sic] actually reinforced the NK image that the US wants to totally and completely defeat NK and reunify it with the south...that is at least their perception...and based on all the sanctions they could actually believe it...
Are you serious?
The record shows frequent and deadly North Korean acts of war against South Korea, Japan and the United States, which have not been responded to in kind, in addition to the unilateral withdrawal of American nuclear weapons from South Korea. In return, North Korea has continued to develop nuclear weapons that can reach the United States and has threatened nuclear war on a number of occasions. Pyongyang has been handled with kid gloves and that approach has not worked. Now, the window of opportunity for decisively stopping the threat is closing.
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Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
AND you read the Deputy FMs comments that "Gadhafi was crazy for giving up his nuclear drive in exchange of being accepted into the West...WHAT did it get him...shot in a ditch"...You can actually understand NK…anyway maybe the current leader is not as "crazy" as we make him out to be...
Why would I read what I already know to be true?
You will recall that I have consistently argued that U.S. intervention in Libya drove a nail in the coffin of non-proliferation, which was given the coup de grace by Russia in Ukraine three years later.
Yet both you and CrowBat whined that Gadhafi was a butcher who needed to be ousted. Well, Obama ruined the only positive developments from Bush’s aggressive non-proliferation focus, and the point was not lost on either Pyongyang or Teheran for that matter. If there is war on the Korean peninsula again, save your condemnation for Clinton and Obama: at least Bush was consistent. Gadhafi was never “accepted into the West”, but there was a gentleman’s agreement that relations would be normal again and he would not be subject to “shock and awe”. After Operation Odyssey Dawn, why would Teheran, Pyongyang, Islamabad, Damascus or any other rogue nuclear or would-be nuclear power ever trust Washington? That is the reason that the JCPOA is a failure: because Teheran has no incentive to comply for the duration.
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Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
Richards [sic] went on to say use economic and humanitarian aid and help to their electrical power industries to entice them long term that 1) the West is not out to destroy him or NK and 2) long term entice him off nuclear weapons if for a long period the West does not attempt to destroy NK...
By the time that “long period” is over, North Korea will have a minimum credible deterrent capable of reaching the U.S. and extorting it, South Korea and Japan for aid. There is no reason for Kim to believe that anything other than a nuclear deterrent will protect his regime. Neither Washington nor Moscow can go back on the messes they created in Libya and Ukraine, respectively, and the broken agreements.