'Nigeria: the context for violence' (2006-2013)
From ICG, 3 Aug 06: The Swamps of Insurgency: Nigeria's Delta Unrest
Quote:
A potent cocktail of poverty, crime and corruption is fuelling a militant threat to Nigeria’s reliability as a major oil producer. Since January 2006, fighters from a new group, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), have fought with government forces, sabotaged oil installations, taken foreign oil workers hostage and carried out two lethal car bombings. MEND demands the government withdraw troops, release imprisoned ethnic leaders and grant oil revenue concessions to Delta groups. The Nigerian government needs to forge far-reaching reforms to administration and its approach to revenue sharing, the oil companies to involve credible, community-based organisations in their development efforts and Western governments to pay immediate attention to improving their own development aid...
Vanity Fair article on Nigerian insurgency
In the latest Vanity Fair, Sebastian Junger wrote a very good article about Nigerian troubles in the Niger Delta with insurgent groups. It's worth reading.
Here's the link:
http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/f...2/junger200702
The Swamps of Insurgency: Nigeria’s Delta Unrest. Crisis Group Africa Report N°115, 3
Quote:
A decade later, the potential consequences of this conflict have escalated in both human and economic terms across a swathe of territory 30 times the size of Ogoniland. Nigerian and international military experts have recognised that the crisis requires a negotiated political resolution. Any attempt at a military solution would be disastrous for residents and risky for the oil industry. Most facilities are in the maze of creeks and rivers that are particularly vulnerable to raids by well-armed militants with intimate knowledge of the terrain. But inaction risks escalating and entrenching the conflict at a time when tensions are already rising in advance of the 2007 national elections.
MEND increasingly serves as an umbrella organisation for a loose affiliation of rebel groups in the Delta. It has not revealed the identity of its leaders or the source of its funds but its actions demonstrate that it is better armed and organised than previous militant groups. Observers warn that a worst-case scenario could lead to a one to two-year shutdown of the oil industry in the Delta, where most of Nigeria’s 2.3 million daily barrels of crude oil originate.
Full Document
http://www.sweetcrudemovie.com/pdf/icgaugust2006.pdf
Where's China's Role In This Tragedy?
Tension has ebbed and flowed in the US security relationship with Nigeria, most notably portrayed in Dana Priest's excellent "The Mission", where the Nigerians were all about "give us the guns" while the US was intent on human rights training before anything else.
The Beijing Consensus certainly doesn't work like that. As the Chinese increasingly edge out the US in providing security training, weapons and cash to the Nigerian obligarchy (a process that could be sped up depending on who wins power in the upcoming Nigerian elections), the government's tactics against peaceful protests and violent rebellion alike will edge toward systematic scorched earth tactics which will only worsen the insurgency.
Given the propensity for ethnic cleansing and mass murder on behalf of the government in Nigeria's history, this will not end well and could be the big fissure that helps dismember Nigeria along religious, ethnic and even tribal lines. The chances of US intervention of some sort (whether US soldiers, special ops or private contractors like Blackwater) in Southern Nigeria (just like in Southern Sudan) will rise dramatically once it becomes a resource war shrouded in holy and ethnic terms.
President Inaugurated in Nigeria
31 May LA Times - President Inaugurated in Nigeria by Robyn Dixon.
Quote:
Umaru Yar'Adua was sworn in Tuesday as Nigeria's president, pledging to be a humble "servant-leader" and to push through political reform after his election last month was widely criticized by international and local observers.
In a muted style markedly different from that of his ebullient and flamboyant predecessor, Olusegun Obasanjo, Yar'Adua said he would fight poverty and corruption and reduce violent crime in the oil-rich Niger Delta. The kidnappings of foreign oil workers there have intensified in recent months, casting a shadow over the country's most important industry...
With Nigeria regularly ranked among the most corrupt countries by the independent group Transparency International, which analyzes corruption and accountability, Yar'Adua said all elected officials must change their "style and attitude."...
Nigeria’s oil output ‘could fall by a third’
From this mornings Financial Times:
Quote:
Nigeria risks losing a third of its oil output by 2015 unless it finds ways to boost investment in joint ventures with foreign energy companies, an internal report by President Umaru Yar’Adua’s energy advisers warns.
The progess report, seen by the Financial Times, highlights the government’s need to find ways to finance the oil industry in the country. It comes after an internal memo from the Shell Petroleum Development Company late last year that said funding problems could put the existence of the company’s joint venture with the Nigerian government at risk. The fresh warning could add to supply fears that have pushed oil prices to fresh records this week and saw prices reach a record $115.45 a barrel on Thursday.
Traders are already worried about Russia’s oil production, considered critical to keep up with Asian demand, after warnings from industry executives that production there has peaked at about 10m barrels a day.
Crude Oil Rises Above $117 as Attackers Cut Nigerian Supply
From today's Bloomberg News:
Quote:
April 21 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose above $117 a barrel in New York after rebel attacks in Nigeria reduced output.
Royal Dutch Shell Plc said an attack last week in Nigeria, Africa's largest oil producer, forced the suspension of 169,000 barrels a day on top of output lost through previous assaults since 2006. OPEC should help ``replenish'' oil inventories because prices are ``too high,'' International Energy Agency Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka said today.
``We are clearly headed over $120 a barrel and we are targeting $125,'' said John Kilduff, vice president of risk management at MF Global Ltd. in New York. ``The last thing we need is another supply disruption. The outage certainly adds to the bullish sentiment.''
'Nigeria: the (wide) context for violence'
We all know that Nigeria has a large Muslim community, mainly in the north and that in several states Sharia law has been introduced. Clashes have in the past occurred between Christians and Muslims, often ended by national (federal) action.
These two short articles illustrate: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/8169359.stm and http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...tion-raid.html
Quote:
(From the later) Around 70 fighters from the fundamentalist group armed with guns and grenades attacked a police station in Nigeria's northern Bauchi state early on Sunday, but retreated after officers opened fire.
Nigeria: In Defense of the Reputation
I sometimes wonder what nerve gets plucked that causes a government with as many problems as that in Nigeria to want to joust at windmills. I mean they only have an insurgency that is holding them back from truly using their oil resources, a corruption problem that sets regional if not world standards, and let us not forget, the art of the credit card-email scan. In the very best hotel in Abuja, one had to be financially suicidal to even flash a piece of plastic.
But here ya go: Nigeria is insulted by a South African horror film about aliens in Jo Burg makes ganster cannibals from Nigeria look bad.
Lord I miss Warren Zevon...
Tom
Quote:
Nigeria Wants Apology for Country's Depiction in 'District 9'
ABUJA, Nigeria — One of the summer's biggest blockbusters — a sci-fi morality tale about aliens and apartheid — is not welcome in Nigeria because of its portrayal of Nigerians as gangsters and cannibals, Nigeria's information minister said Saturday.
Nigerians seek opportunity
The desire to reach Nigeria from Chad is also seen in the apparently relentless flow of Nigerians to South Africa - seen as a land of opportunity. The TV documentaries I've seen, most recently on C4, were of Nigerians in downtown Jo'burg, in Hillbrow - a once risque area, now "off limits". See Google: http://www.google.co.uk/search?q=hil...ne-navbar&cd=1
The South African sci-fi film 'District 9' has some content that has upset the Nigerians, I suspect some comparisons are made between Nigerians and the newcomers. Check the BBC story: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/8264180.stm and this is a UK review of the film: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/f...-9-review.html
davidbfpo