Dunbar's Number and Insurgencies
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Originally Posted by
Nobody Special
So I had this genius idea slap me in the head but it's so far out of my lane I don't even know how to put it together and what the law, bosses or public would have to say to shoot it down. One of the best things about A-stan when I was there is we had a couple of psy-ops guys attached to us and I have to say they did some great work. So the idea is to start a psy-ops campaign against known or suspected gang members. But like I said, just thinking out loud because it's out of my lane. Thoughts? Ideas?
Have you heard of a concept known as Dunbar's Number? Dunbar makes an argument to the upper limits of social organizations (gangs, terrorists, insurgencies, military operational units, etc). And, although his research was never geared to terrorist groups, insurgents or gangs, it may be effective when dealing with these elements. (Dunbar's research was done many years before Afghanistan, Iraq, Oklahoma City, 911, or other attacks)
Dunbar postulates that the absolute maximum group size would be 150. And that this high number could only exist for "social communities" with a very high incentive to remain together. For a group of this size to remain cohesive, Dunbar speculated that as much as 42% of the group's time would have to be devoted to social grooming. So your idea of Psy-Ops to play the end against the middle may have merit to fracture the insurgency cell (social community). The group might have to expend 80% of its energy trying to hold it together. Correspondingly, only groups under intense survival pressure, such as subsistence villages, nomadic tribes, and historical military groupings have, on average, achieved the 150-member mark.
Moreover, Dunbar noted that such groups are almost always physically close: "... we might expect the upper limit on group size to depend wholly on the degree of social dispersal in A-stan. In dispersed societies, individuals will meet less often and will thus be less familiar with each, so group sizes will be limited to local command and control and be smaller in size as a consequence." Thus, the 150-member group can only occur if there is an intense necessity to be united, i.e. due to intense survival, security, environmental and/or economic pressures. My guess would be that Psy-ops could develop a play geared at group sizes of 70 or less, and that the play could be very effective.
Still lurking these days. Will be interesting to watch Chicago now.*
http://www.suntimes.com/5871162-417/...mpstat-meeting
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On Thursday, McCarthy introduced CompStat to Chicago. He was part coach and part interrogator as he quizzed commanders about crime in their districts and what they intended to do about it. He questioned narcotics and detective supervisors about how they’re supporting district commanders.
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He also said he wanted narcotics investigators to focus on helping patrol officers shut down open-air drug markets. Narcotics Cmdr. Jim O’Grady pointed to one probe in Humboldt Park that closed such a market with the help of neighborhood leaders, forcing dealers to arrange their sales over the phone.
McCarthy nodded approvingly. “We gotta fight this like a ground war,” he said. “Once we take territory, I don’t want to give it back.”
McCarthy returned to his battle analogy when the discussion turned to the shooting of two girls — ages 2 and 7 — on Wednesday night on a Northwest Side playlot. The 2-year-old was grazed in the head, and the 7-year-old has a serious back wound. Two men were being held for questioning in the shooting, which apparently was targeting gang members nearby. McCarthy said the department must send a message to the Maniac Latin Disciples, who are thought to be responsible.
“We’re going to obliterate that gang,” he said. “Every one of their locations has to get blown up until they cease to exist.”
Bill Bratton addressing the issue of gangs and gang violence
Bill Bratton, ex-NYPD & LAPD, has strong links with some in UK policing and has been over twice this year, once invited by an influential think tank, Policy Exchange and recently by the government to quickly offer help on gangs.
The link is to his most recent thoughts:http://www.policyexchange.org.uk/pag...ngviolence.cgi
Citing his time in LAPD:
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Prior to 2002 the focus and priority from gang and crime suppression had been on arrests and incarceration but in spite of that effort crime continued to grow. We learned the hard way that while arrests and punishment are an essential part of any gang and crime reduction strategy, you cannot arrest your way out of the plague of crime and violence. It didn’t work and it entailed enormous costs.
Near the end:
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I have learned throughout my 40-year career in law enforcement that cops count, police matter. Effective policing can deliver results, even if the desired funding is not always available. Addressing the problem of gangs, as with most crimes, requires effective and committed partnership between law enforcement agencies and the government. Police cannot fight crime on their own. Today’s world is a global one where success depends on collaboration, innovation and sharing the best ideas. Likewise I believe policing should be an open profession where ideas are freely exchanged.