U.S. Officials Say Sizable Arab Force Identified For Raqqa Campaign
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U.S. Officials Say Sizable Arab Force Identified For Raqqa Campaign
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Pentagon Plan to Seize Raqqa Calls for Significant Increase in U.S. Participation
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Three-Way Contest for Raqqa to Shape Mideast
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U.S. Marines Deploy to Syria as Agreement on Raqqa Assault Eludes Allies
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CJTFOIR Spokesman: Counter-ISIS Forces Make Gains in Raqqa, Mosul
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Time for a new thread starting tomorrow.
The Syria in 2017 (January to March) had 2,105 posts and 86.8k views:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=24850
The previous thread from September-December 2016 had 2683 posts and 64.2k views.
Russian Syrian Express....
Watch this RORO: From Novorossiysk, flag RORO Sparta III transits Bosphorus en route to #Tartus #Syria carrying military equipment 01:30Z
For a complete list of links to my coverage of Assadist and Russian aerial operations over Syria in period 15 March - 30 April 2017, please see here.
In essence, and with exception of air strikes flown on 30 and 31 March, and 1 April 2017, all the figures are there. The link above also provides a number of links to related articles published at WarIsboring.com.
A much bigger - indeed, a 'major' feature on the SyAAF, its current condition, ORBAT, capabilities and intentions - is planned for publishing in the June 2017 volume of the magazine Air Forces Monthly.
Russian Syrian Express......
Ф #ЧФ BSF Tapir class LST Nikolai Filchenkov 152 transits Med-bound Bosphorus en route to #Tartus #Syria for its 5th deployment in 2017
BUT she is riding a tad high for a resupply run....
Damascus: #Assad forces shelling #Irbeen in Eastern #Damascus with heavy artillery. Many civilians were killed or wounded.
Damascus: 100 rebels wasted for nothing in Eastern #Ghouta in 3 days, while the #Assad regime bombs nonstop & tries to advance.
NEW - In a new report, @hrw says #Assad regime has conducted x4 nerve agent attacks in #Syria since December 2016:
https://www.hrw.org/sites/default/fi...0517_web_1.pdf …
AND the next Trump TLAM Response for crossing his "redline" will occur when???????
Videos of suspected chlorine IRAMs in Eastern Ghouta are here (1/31):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3HXZjvHxdJE …
and here (2/21):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kNF8aHxsOHo …
Azor....heads up.....
This morning, #Russia’s military openly positioned itself with #YPG/#PKK forces in #Afrin, to deter any future #Turkey military action:
Senior INGO official told me last week how #Russia & #Assad are giving #YPG access to S #Aleppo, to unite #Afrin-Kobane-Jazira cantons.
So in one way, you’ve got to be impressed with #YPG’s political maneuvering; using #Russia *and* U.S. to protect its territorial gains.
On the other hand, you’ve got to also see the irony - an organization that detests “imperialism” is now dependent on #Russia & the U.S.
When questioned on why @CENTCOM officers were sharing company with senior PKK figures, @statedeptspox was not particularly supportive
Seeing a U.S. SOF officer walking side-by-side with a well-known PKK Commander Sahin Cilo is just a little more THAN problematic especailly since PKK is a US named terrorist group....:
On America’s intimate ties w. the #YPG/#PKK & ratcheting of tensions with #Turkey:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...P=share_btn_tw …
11 #FSA groups + Menagh Revolutionary Council of #Aleppo statement supporting Jaysh al-Islam vs. #HTS—advise Al Rahman Corps to side w/ JaI
Azor.....HIGHLY worth reading as it goes to heart of what CrowBat and myself have been posting here......
Really read it.....
https://kyleorton1991.wordpress.com/...nd-propaganda/
PKK and Propaganda
By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 29 April 2017
The West’s Syria policy is beginning to unravel of its own contradictions.
AMAZINGLY NATO knows about YPG and PKK being one and the same BUT US SOF and CENTCOM does not????Quote:
The Turkish government launched airstrikes against the positions of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in north-eastern Syria and the Sinjar area of north-western Iraq in the early hours of 25 April. There were international ramifications to this because the PKK in Syria, which operates politically under the name of the Democratic Union Party (PYD) and militarily as the People’s Defence Units (YPG), is the main partner of the U.S.-led Coalition against the Islamic State (IS). Turkey has protested the U.S. engaging the YPG/PKK so deeply and exclusively as its anti-IS partner, being displeased at the U.S.’s uncritical (public) stance toward the YPG, even after the YPG violated U.S.-brokered agreements on its operational theatres and used Russian airstrikes to attack Turkey- and CIA-backed rebels.
In response to Turkey’s anti-PKK operations this week, The Washington Post has hosted an op-ed by Ilham Ahmed, identified as “a co-president of the Democratic Council of Syria”.
The Democratic Council of Syria (or Syrian Democratic Council (SDC)) is the political wing of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The SDF is a front-group for the PKK, mostly designed to assist the United States in circumventing her terrorism laws since the PKK is blacklisted; the PKK is also registered as terrorist by Turkey, the European Union, and NATO. The SDF has some Arab units attached to it, but this multi-ethnic composition is not allowed to threaten the PKK’s political monopoly within the SDF. Ms. Ahmed is also formally the chairwoman of the Movement for a Democratic Society (TEV-DEM), the ruling authority in the areas under YPG control that they call “Rojava”. Though TEV-DEM is formally a coalition, most of the ostensibly-different organizations within it are either outright PYD fronts or individuals and parties that have so little support they cannot hinder the PYD.
If these acronyms are beginning to get confusing, that is by design. As a paper for NATO’s Centre of Excellence Defence Against Terrorism noted in 2015, this is part of the “PKK’s continuous effort to escape its terrorist designation”. Ms. Ahmed’s political role, for example, makes much more sense once it is understood that she is a senior official in the PYD. That was only one of the things not mentioned in her op-ed, which was a skilled piece of propaganda that repays some study, since it helps underline some of the misconceptions currently at play over Syria.
Ms. Ahmed’s op-ed was entitled, “We’re America’s best friend in Syria. Turkey bombed us anyway,” and the entire framing of the piece is that the SDC, SDF, and YPG are “democratic, egalitarian and progressive” forces whose main mission is combatting IS in alliance with the West. Nobody denies the YPG/PKK’s success in clearing IS from areas of northern Syria—nor the massive U.S. airpower that has enabled this. The framing is deceptive, however. The YPG’s key strategic aim is the carving out of a statelet; the anti-IS mission was complementary to that, both in terms of gaining territory as the YPG displaced IS and in gaining the political credit from the West of fighting IS.
Rana Marcel recently wrote for Chatham House of the ways the PYD/YPG has tried to gain legitimacy, inside Syria and abroad. The legitimation strategy is significantly based on messaging, Marcel concluded, very carefully “tailored to different audiences”. The PYD/YPG “present[s] its fight against ISIS as a battle between universal liberal values and extremism,” and puts a particular emphasis on gender quality (its female fighters having been much sensationalized in the Western press), environmentalism, and collectivist economics. Inside its territories, the PYD/YPG plays on Kurdish nationalism. Keeping these messages separate is among the reasons the media is so heavily controlled in PYD/YPG-run areas, with independent reporting on either the party or its militia regarded as “an attempt to deliver information to terrorists”.
The op-ed, of course, contains a considerable amount of messaging against Turkey. Ms. Ahmed detects a “stark contrast” between the progressive, democratic Rojava and Turkey, which President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is “turning … into a totalitarian state,” while “turning a blind eye to terrorism and supporting groups that overtly espouse jihadist ideals.” Allowances made for rhetorical excess, Ms. Ahmed has a point.
There is no doubt, as Michael Koplow pointed out, that—even if there were not, as it seems there were, irregularities in the referendum itself—the recent vote to give Erdogan executive authority was grossly unfair, and the internal trend in Turkey is certainly toward a more authoritarian government. The only qualifier is that some perspective on the violence and repression of the governments overseen by secular military in the 1980s and 1990s, which the West found compatible with its interests, is helpful.
The Turkish government’s Syria policy has proven disastrous, including to itself. There is plenty of blame to go around for this. Ankara had a right to expect greater support from its NATO allies for its interests in Syria—and that these allies would not actively work against her. At the same time, while Erdogan’s turn from the West has been accelerated by Turkey’s shabby treatment over Syria, it is not reactive in origin, and Turkey’s support for Islamist rebel groups in Syria, notably Ahrar al-Sham, even when powerful nationalists were available, has contributed to the diminishing options the West now has in Syria.
The problem is that Ms. Ahmed casts these stones from a glass house. The PKK is in a weak position to be hurling accusations of terrorism and extremism. Nor does the PKK have much footing in governance terms. The PKK followed one of its own leaders through three states in Europe to assassinate him after he suggested democratic reforms within the organization, for example, and many other Kurds who joined the PKK have fallen to these purges, carried out on the most arbitrary basis. In Syria, the PYD/PKK has run a harshly authoritarian system, inherited almost wholesale from the regime of Bashar al-Assad. The deep economic and political integration between the Rojavan project and the Assad regime is among the things that did not make it into Ms. Ahmed’s op-ed, but it is one of the reasons that some Kurds compare the PYD’s rule to that of the Ba’ath Party.
Last summer, Ibrahim Biro, the leader of the main Kurdish opposition group, the Kurdish National Council (KNC or ENKS), was expelled from Rojava by PYD security forces and threatened with murder if he returned. A wave of attacks on Kurdish opposition parties began after that: party headquarters burned down, anti-PYD operatives beaten up and even killed either by mobs or the police directed by PYD regime, and a large number of arrests. In recent weeks, this crackdown has intensified as the PYD moved to formally ban all parties but its own.
Ms. Ahmed continues the effort to obfuscate the relationship between the PYD/YPG and the PKK. “[A]ny attempt to equate us with the PKK is disingenuous,” says Ms. Ahmed. She concedes that the PYD and YPG “share a founder and many intellectual values with the PKK,” though the PKK “run contrary to our core value of decentralization of power”. Even the smoothest media operation can have a bad day.
The key claim from Ms. Ahmed is that “our political and military leadership is completely separate from that of the PKK.” This is simply a lie.
In a fortuitously-timed release, the International Crisis Group also had a piece out yesterday, which noted:
The YPG and [PYD] are the PKK’s Syrian affiliates, and there is little prospect for their organic link with the mother party to change in the foreseeable future. Qandil-trained and battle-hardened PKK cadres with years—in some cases decades—of experience in the organisation’s struggle against Turkey hold the most influential positions within the YPG and, by extension, within the SDF’s chain of command; within the PYD-run civil governing bodies that administer YPG-held areas; and within the security forces, such as the Asayesh (security police), which are the backbone of that governance. While most of these cadres are Syrian Kurds (though notable roles are also played by Kurds from Turkey and Iran), loyalty to the PKK’s internal hierarchy appears to override relations to local society. Many also operate largely behind the scenes, or with titles that understate their actual authority, while nominally responsible officials lacking direct ties to the organisation are reduced to placeholders. Though this gives the PKK presence in northern Syria a local face, the reality of who wields power is evident to those living there and should be to external observers as well.
The PYD was founded in 2003 in the Qandil Mountains of northern Iraq, where the PKK has had a base since 1982 when it established a camp at Lolan from which it launched its war against Turkey in 1984, by Osman Ocalan, acting at the orders of his brother, Abdullah Ocalan (Apo), the PKK’s leader. Osman has since explained his role in this after he defected from the PKK in 2005.
Continued.....
The invisible holders of power in Rojava above the YPG commanders are longtime PKK operatives to a man.
Continued......
The @HRW report on the Khan Sheikhoun attack has previously unpublished images of the filling cap from the bomb used
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cVGDcReFz9k …
HRW also find's government's use of helicopter-dropped chlorine bombs more systematic; (b) pro-Assad ground-forces also now using chlorine.
Suheil al Hassan with a Russian Major General, probably near Hama
Turkish military digging trenches&setting up new positions in #Akcakale along #Syria border.Some parts of border walls removed
#TalAbyad
Iran’s Diplomatic Corps: Between a Rock and the Quds Force
http://bit.ly/2oQ1uC4
YPG shelled #Azaz with artillery this evening. Probably to provoke #FSA and #Turkey.
YPG thinks they are under #US & #Russia|n protection and invulnerable now. Let's see what they try next.
A FSA Levant Front source just let me know that houses of civilians r being shelled in Azaz, shelling from Mar'anaz
Hama Battle: Central Division carried out an Inghimasi operation in area of Zalin checkpoint, killing 7 pro-Assad and seizing weapons.
S. #Aleppo: #HTS destroyed an #ATGM launcher in Tulaylat near Al-Hader firing a guided missile.
E. #Damascus: fierce clashes in #Barzeh and #Qabun where Regime made advances around Electric Station backed by shelling and airstrikes.
N. #Hama: #Lataminah area still intensively bombed, incl. by #RuAF Su-25.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35....621552&z=12&m …
Hama Battle: Jaish Al-Nasr shelling pro-Regime forces in #Helfaya with dozens of Grad rockets.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35....609364&z=13&m …
Hama Battle: Central Division took out with a #TOW a fuel tanker near #Maan.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35....795616&z=13&m …
Main deployment areas of #Hazaras (Afghans) from pro-Assad #Fatemiyoun Brigade past months, via @historicoblog4. https://twitter.com/historicoblog4/s...76716240424961 …
New @bellingcat article with fully updated infographics for all factions in the #Syria-n Civil War:
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena...ian-civil-war/
From yesterday....
Daraa: #Assad barrel bombs killed 10+ civilians and wounded dozens in #Daraa City today. Most victims are women and children.
Daraa: Al-Bunian Al-Marsous op. room launches retaliatory strikes vs Regime positions with artillery for civilians killed in Regime raids.
Hama Battle: many pro-Assad killed past days were from Regime strongholds (S. #Ghab, #Homs, #Latakia and #Tartus prov.).
N. #Hama: barrel bomb dropped by a #SyAF helicopter over #Lataminah, smashing building.
Syria: refugee camp for ppl from Al-Waer (#Homs) set up on Turkish border in W. #Jarablus CS. 300+ tents on 5th April, now 3 times bigger.
At least 7 Syrian @SyriaCivilDefe members were killed when pro-regime Russian jets bombed their HQ in Kafrzaita, rural Hama today.
And vice versa. It takes two to tango, no?Quote:
Originally Posted by CrowBat
And? If the narcotics-related conflict in Mexico destroyed the Mexican state and the violence sent millions fleeing into the United States, would Turkey lend a helping hand?Quote:
Originally Posted by CrowBat
The United States is also being called upon to resolve the Russo-Ukrainian War, the ongoing wars in the D.R. Congo and Burundi, the transnational wars involving Boko Haram, the civil war in Myanmar, the unresolved Korean conflict, etc.
They poured into Lebanon and Jordan as well. Turkey has been the single largest provider of aid (at 47% of total), but Turkey’s allies have pitched in, with the United States being the second-largest donor at 27%.Quote:
Originally Posted by CrowBat
You inflated the number of Russian citizens fighting for rebel groups in Syria by an order of magnitude, and did they all cross through Iran and Iraq, or take the direct route through Turkey? Yes, Assad sparked the war and yes, neither Daesh nor Nusra would have been possible without the lawless vacuum that the war created. However, Ankara allowed its southern border to be a sieve for foreign volunteers to join the FSA, Daesh and Nusra, because these were clashing with the YPG.Quote:
Originally Posted by CrowBat
No, the West simply had no appetite for regime change and a major ground war. Prior to the 2013 arrangement with Russia, Assad’s deterrent complicated the situation as it was suggested that some 75,000 ground troops would be required to secure his chemical weapons.Quote:
Originally Posted by CrowBat
As for Iran’s intervention, Washington couldn’t make war on Iran in Syria on the one hand, and arrive at a deal on Iran’s nuclear weapons program on the other. Obama clearly traded involvement in Ukraine and Syria for the JCPOA.
No, the cooperation began with the PYD. Despite the PKK-PYD ties, the YPG is not fighting in Turkey, and I have seen no evidence of a major flow of Turkish Kurdish volunteers to the YPG or conversely, flows of Syrian Kurdish volunteers to the PKK.Quote:
Originally Posted by CrowBat
When were the Turks told to tolerate the PKK? I saw Turkish armor roll into southeastern cities weapons free and kill at least as many Kurdish civilians as PKK fighters, with little to no pressure from the West. If the Sultan and his Muslim Brotherhood are so high on the list of Daesh’s and Nusra’s target lists, then why did the Sultan place them below the YPG on his own list? Ankara was accused of collaboration with Daesh by Russia, a claim that was cried shrilly after the Su-24 was barbequed.Quote:
Originally Posted by CrowBat
Of course, the West could have responded by highlighting Assad’s reliance upon commodities from Daesh-controlled parts of Syria, as the “Syrian Express” cannot keep the lights on in Damascus on its own, but then the Western publics would bay for intervention and how could the West then avoid regime change and conflict with Iran?
Supporting the YPG is dangerous for Moscow and Teheran as well, as Moscow wants to prize Turkey from NATO and has its own ethnic problems, and Iran has a chunk of “Kurdistan” as well. Few seem to be thinking this thing through.
Yeah right. I cannot claim to know many Turks, but I have yet to meet one that believes that there was a genocide.Quote:
Originally Posted by CrowBat
Should I care? As far as I am concerned, both Russia and Turkey should be walled off.Quote:
Originally Posted by CrowBat
Well, when you can prove a Jewish genocide of Arabs, perhaps I’ll entertain this more. I went through my pro-Palestinian phase years ago.Quote:
Originally Posted by CrowBat
I used aboriginal in lieu of “Indian” or “American Indian”, which are inaccurate terms. Would you prefer “native” or “indigenous”? “Aborigine” is something else entirely. Again, no genocide happened. Everyone wants to have their own Holocaust it seems whilst denying the real one that took place.Quote:
Originally Posted by CrowBat
Alright. So if the United States has one bullet for humanitarian intervention, where does it use it? D.R. Congo and Burundi or Iraq and Syria?Quote:
Originally Posted by CrowBat
In my experience, the Turks are more indoctrinated by their government than the Russians, and this includes the Turks that are secular nationalists as well. If there is one thing that Turks agree on, it is that there were no genocides and that there is an anti-Turkish conspiracy.Quote:
Originally Posted by CrowBat
Because the West wants to specifically defeat Daesh and otherwise stay out of the war. I see leaving Assad in place and defeating Sunni Arab supremacism as mutually exclusive objectives. But I’m not on the NSC.Quote:
Originally Posted by CrowBat
The problem is far too complex to make that assumption. Again, a nuclear-armed Iran was considered a worse threat than Daesh and still is.Quote:
Originally Posted by CrowBat
I said “rump state”. An Alawi can never rule over the Sunni Arab majority in Syria again. However, neither will the Alawis accept possible tyranny of the majority. Another Alawi leader could enact a realarmistice so that the FSA can concentrate on Daesh and consolidate its control over Sunni Arab Syria. Of course, Russia may be content with that but Iran won’t be.Quote:
Originally Posted by CrowBat
A weak and federalized state along the lines of Lebanon seems to be the answer for both Iraq and Syria, but are the Alawis and Shias disabused of the notion that they can win it all?
To paraphrase Gen. Sherman, the Iranians need to be made absolutely sick of war.
I never said that Iran’s regular forces were involved. I am aware that this is a Pasdaran project. However, Iran could "surge" regular forces into Syria rather than just special forces and various Shia mercenaries. Their strategic lift capabilities leave much to be desired, but they could probably cobble together some sort of ad hoc naval lift if the way through Iraq is closed off, which is a big “if”. How can Iran have a “full-blown military intervention in Syria” without the regular Iranian military? That’s an Israeli riddle for you.Quote:
Originally Posted by CrowBat
Suffice it to say, when someone constantly falls back on, “attend WestPoint” or “inform yourself”, the other party can be sure that they hit a nerve. Knowing the technical details of the SyAAF does not equate to knowing the weighing of options in the NSC or among the U.S. and its allies.
In conclusion, you seem to have trouble distinguishing between my discussion of the current state of affairs and my discussion of my own personal preferences. As both you and Outlaw are no doubt aware, risk-aversion often leads to negative effects, as was evident in American interventions in Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and now Syria. American foreign policy is typically successful when there is total and unlimited commitment, and often that commitment is far less “total” in the end than the grudging commitments made to supposedly “limited” initiatives.
It seems that the West wants Raqqa to fall and Daesh to be driven from the field as quickly as possible so that Operation Inherent Resolve can be wrapped up, and the Coalition can return home, repair the wear and tear on their aircraft and other equipment, and replenish their stocks of PGMs. This is about as permanent a victory as the Paris Peace Accords or "Mission Accomplished", but that is the way it is.
- Leaked video purports to show YPG/SDF forces in Raqqa countryside going into civilian houses looking to loot/steal, Raqqa Governorate, Syria
- Clashes between the Free Syrian Army and the YPG/SDF on the axis of A'zaz -Maranaz, north of Aleppo
Turkish-YPG Fighting
- Turkish artillery pounding YPG positions in Afrin with artillery
- Howitzers and T-122 Sakarya MLRS is reportedly pounding YPG positions in Afrin
Perhaps Washington will come to the realization that there are no angels here, except the White Helmets.
Neither the YPG nor the FSA should be fighting in Sunni Arab and Kurdish areas, respectively, and any operations in mixed areas should come under strict joint oversight to prevent cleansing.
BUT when you pick the wrong bar...the wrong friends...have no chair and no beer...will you then realize you might in one heck of a serious problem....THIS is where SOF and CENTCOM are now and yet I do not think they even realize it...
AND that is sad....
Maybe if they read SWC/SWJ more often????
Another wiki-leaks affair: Somebody stole the super-modern, ultra-secret digital map of Syria, used by the CENTCOM for its operations there - and posted it on the internet....
This is a post especially for all the fans of Brigadier-General Sohail 'Botox' Hussein. While reading it, please turn on this music (right-click, please): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aGuNsiSZ9RI
One of visitors of the ACIG forum has recently drawn my attention at an increasing number of photographs showing Assadist Brig-Gen Sohail 'Botox' Hussein...'escorted'... by young, or at least cleanly shaven, 'pretty'... well, boys.
I've seen 1-2 of these too, but didn't pay attention early on, and thus wasn't aware how many are meanwhile circulating the internet. Nor, actually, that a few of the boys in question are around him all the time - or that Hussein is clearly showing his predilection for such...ahem... 'visitors'. That aside, my standpoint is that everybody is free to do whatever he/she likes to do in his off time. So, why care?
But then, our visitor made me aware of the 'practice' of 'powerful men' having 'sex with pretty boys' being quite widespread in the Middle East, and not even considered as 'homosexuality'. Apparently, even some very religious men do it, whether in Syria, or Iran, even in Afghanistan (apparently, even some US servicemen reported receiving sexual advances while serving in Iraq and Afghanistan).
Anyway... Sohail 'Botox' Hassan seems to have an entire group - i.e. a 'harem' - of 'pretty boys' around him nearly all of time. And, since the internet is meanwhile flooded with... loving images of him in their company... well: why not post a collection of at least a few of them?
Here something like 'Best of Botox Hussein and his Harem'... with love, :D
(...uuuu-uuuuu-uuuu....)
You forgot to include Polish and Soviet civilians and prisoners of war.
Often you will find that the same people claiming a "Holocaust" of women (witch trials), Arabs (by Europeans and later Israelis), and Native Americans (by Europeans, Americans and Canadians), seem to want to refute some or all aspects of the Shoah.
For instance, Russians have inflated the number of Soviet civilians and POWs who were mass murdered by the Germans, by including non-Soviet victims as well as those of Stalin's brutality, which continued unabated throughout the war. Russians have then taken the Soviet total and claimed it as a Russian total. Yet Holocaust denial and anti-Semitism abounds in Russia, and no effort is made to recognize the greater suffering of Belorussians, Ukrainians and Kazakhs, or Russia's own genocides against non-Russians.
There is a race among the groups of the living to make claims upon the dead - real and imagined - whilst denying other groups their own claims.
Do you truly think that I am accusing you of Holocaust denial? Or are you looking for an excuse to disengage?
What I am accusing you of is playing fast and loose with the history of mass murder, purely to deflect from a series of genocides perpetrated by the Turks in the 20th Century, which continue in the form of low-level war.
Nothing wrong with that. You may also recall the quirks of such previous warlords as General Butt Naked in Liberia. These characters would be laughable if they weren't so lethal...Quote:
Originally Posted by CrowBat
As homosexuality no longer exists in Iran according to its former president and various crane operators, perhaps it still does in Syria?
Carpet bombings by #Kremlin regime war planes on #Hama towns today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZpp...ture=youtu.be#
At Merkel presser, #Putin called it "ceasefire".
Putin says he doesn't interfere in domestic affairs of other countries.
AND as Syria and eastern Ukraine continue to be in a deep war...we have the American FP bogged down in a debate on the "Civil war"?????
TRUMP (yesterday): I would've used my dealmaking skills to prevent the Civil War
TRUMP (today): I can't get anything through a GOP Congress
YET after his "red line" TLAM strike..he has done nothing more in Syria....
Russian MoD denies @hrw report that Soviet-era bombs were used in chemical attack, says not 1 Western inspector has visited site in Syria.
Syria: after these advances Western/Jordanian backed rebels have entered #DeirEzzor governorate from the SW, controlling most of the desert
Syria: Maghaweer al-Thawra (#FSA) rebels have captured Jabal Ghrab, wadi Swab, Muayzilah & the T3 Pumping station in the Syrian desert
Hama : Regime barrel bomb massacre in #Latmenah as a mother, father and four children were killed by a helicopter.
Afrin today.
#Kremlin regime soldiers patrolling with #PKK-affiliated fighters.
Putin's middle finger to Erdogan, one day before the visit.
According to SIPRI, Russia provided more than 50% of the value of the arms transferred to Syria from 1992 to 2013, with data being scarce for 2014 and unavailable for 2015-2015. Russia was the single largest transferor in 2002-2003 and 2009-2013, or for one third of that period. Has the Syrian account been up to date? Certainly not. But such is the cost of doing business in the arms trade, and neither Yeltsin nor Putin have had problems providing corporate welfare to Russian defense contractors.Quote:
Originally Posted by CrowBat
With regard to Tartus, it is effectively a glorified dock. Russia has been unable to even thinly spread its assets across its existing bases, let alone take advantage of naval facilities in Syria and Vietnam. Recently, the Russian Navy had to cannibalize its Black Sea Fleet to reinforce its Baltic Fleet, and deploying the naval group off of Syria has been a strain.
As stated previously, I referred to “client” in a very loose sense given that Russia’s international relationships are far fewer and far weaker than those of the United States, and I won’t belabor the point further.
What new ROEs have been introduced? Thus far Russia has offered to turn transponders on if all NATO aircraft (i.e. spy planes) will do likewise.Quote:
Originally Posted by CrowBat
In 2017, there were at least six incidents of Russian military aircraft flying in international Baltic airspace with their transponders off.
In 2016, there were 110 intercepts in the Baltic area, including at least four where Russian transponders were off, and six violations of Estonian airspace. In addition, there were ten violations of Bulgarian airspace and at least one unsafe interception by Russia over the Black Sea. NATO intercepts were lower for 2016 than 2014 and 2015, but are still far above 2013 levels.
Well, Russia may be “Upper Volta”, but it still has “rockets”, does it not? This country has directly challenged American interests since 2008, and has invaded and partitioned two prospective American allies.Quote:
Originally Posted by CrowBat
Regardless, you continue to have difficulty reading what I actually write. I never said that Russia would attack American or Coalition forces in Syria. What I did assert was that Russia probably would ignore a no-fly zone, no-drive zone and/or a blockade, and dare the Coalition to fire on it first. Despite lacking true allies, Russia would certainly have allies of convenience in Damascus and Teheran.
Consider the Berlin Airlift, when American and British forces were faced with overwhelming Soviet quantitative and qualitative superiority, frayed lines of communication and only perhaps two dozen atomic bombs were available to the U.S. once the B-29s had been deployed. The Allies violated the blockade peacefully, adhered to pre-blockade arrangements as much as possible, and were prepared to lose men and machines to Soviet aggression and the weather, if need be. The airlift was a logistical feat for the British and French, and humiliated the far stronger Soviet Union.
After the fall of Qaddafi and the refusal of Obama to treat him as an equal partner, Putin has been determined to humiliate the U.S. despite Russia’s weaknesses. Were the U.S. to establish a blockade or NFZ/NDZ, I believe that Putin would move heaven and earth to violate it and risk the lives of Russian sailors and pilots doing so.
And? It all boils down to whether the U.S. would fire upon Russian and Iranian blockade runners.Quote:
Originally Posted by CrowBat
Of course Moscow cared. It just had bigger fish to fry. Assuming that the blockade did not include airstrikes on Assad’s ground forces, it would have taken the rebels some time to defeat Assad, during which Moscow and Teheran could have tried to run men and materiel through the blockade, by air, sea and overland through Iraq, which was not exactly an American ally in 2013.Quote:
Originally Posted by CrowBat
If Obama had launched TLAMs or established a blockade in 2013, Assad would have been screaming for help.Quote:
Originally Posted by CrowBat
Right. We are talking about your alternate timeline where Obama launches TLAMs and establishes a blockade.Quote:
Originally Posted by CrowBat
The Iranians would have had this prerequisite long before the JCPOA was drafted, and would have signaled Obama if he had intervened in Syria in 2013.Quote:
Originally Posted by CrowBat
Russia could take an alternate air route with refueling, rely upon sealift or transit via Iraq, which was led by Maliki, who would probably have allowed it. After all, Iraq currently hosts Iranian special forces and has sent Iranian-led Iraqi Shia militias to Syria.Quote:
Originally Posted by CrowBat
...as if one needs any 'Western inspector' - to get killed by old Russian bombs: there are enough photos and videos of what are VKS fighter-bombers dropping around.
Except of ODAB-500s, the 'newest' stuff are FAB-500M-62s: 62 stands for the year of their design... (1962).
BTW, the VKS now has at least one A-50 SRDLO (Russian for AWACS) in Syria. The source is 'murky', to put it mildly, but the photo appears to be genuine: it was taken near Hmemmem AB, on 29 April.
This, in turn, is 'little surprising', considering number of sorties flown every day is indicating that the Russians meanwhile have about 50 combat aircraft - mind: combat aircraft, i.e. fighter-bombers alone - deployed at Hmemmem.
From an Israeli source, citing a speech on April 23rd 2017:Link:http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/article/21198Quote:
Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri calls on his followers in al-Sham (greater Syria) to abandon the concept of territorial control and concentrate on guerilla warfare, joined by other Muslims around the globe
The following testimony was presented to the United States House Committee on Foreign Affairs on April 27, 2017, by Charles Lister
http://www.mei.edu/content/article/t...policy-options
Selected excerpts and my comments - Part 1/2:
In August 2013, Assad had at least 1,000 tons of chemical weapons, including several hundred of Sarin. According to the DOD (https://fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/R42848.pdf), securing Assad’s stockpiles by force would have required the deployment of up to 75,000 soldiers, including thousands of regular and special forces on the ground in Syria, and an air and naval campaign far larger than the 60 aircraft and 7 ships required for Operation Odyssey Dawn in 2011. Not only did the 2013 “Framework” destroy or remove nearly all of Assad’s CWs, it dismantled their infrastructure and delivery systems. The deal prevented Assad’s formidable arsenal from being transferred to Hezbollah for use against Israel, or falling under Al Qaeda or Daesh control, which U.S. military intervention may not have been able to achieve. Unfortunately, the deal ensured Assad’s survival and continued war against his own citizens, with increased Iranian and Russian support.Quote:
Originally Posted by Charles Lister
I agree. Yet behind Assad is Iran, much as Iran was behind Maliki’s efforts to marginalize the Sunni Arabs of Iraq. Therefore, we arrive at the second humanitarian compromise in order to minimize the threat of WMDs: permitting Iran to pursue a sectarian war in Iraq and Syria in return for an agreement on Iran’s nuclear weapons program.Quote:
Originally Posted by Charles Lister
I doubt Assad is comfortable, as he sits only at the pleasure of Teheran, whose calculus may well change. His recent use of Sarin was an unambiguous test of the new U.S. administration’s interest in Syria and resolve.Quote:
Originally Posted by Charles Lister
This is in addition to Syria’s invasions of Israel and Lebanon, ties to U.S. adversaries Iran and North Korea, support for designated terrorist group Hezbollah, and attempt to develop nuclear weapons.Quote:
Originally Posted by Charles Lister
Specifics will be needed. Is the U.S. supposed to partition the country into ethnic and sectarian enclaves and then use force to prevent one group from aggressing against another? What about the mixed areas on the frontlines? Should the U.S. be neutral except where Al Qaeda and Daesh are concerned, but ignore the foreign Shia mercenaries marauding on behalf of Assad? How can the U.S. ensure compliance from Iran and Russia? Currently, the regime is determined to reconquer the country, despite being reliant upon foreign funding, manpower and materiel to do so. How can its calculus be changed without changing the regime itself?Quote:
Originally Posted by Charles Lister
Exactly. Moscow will tolerate a slap on the wrist that does not materially alter the balance of forces, but not a decapitating blow.Quote:
Originally Posted by Charles Lister
Agreed.Quote:
Originally Posted by Charles Lister
Russia is likely interested in a negotiated settlement and a partitioned country with a “frozen conflict”, whereas Iran is determined to secure total victory over every inch of Syria.Quote:
Originally Posted by Charles Lister
They may not have a choice. The Sunni Arab majority will not accept minority Alawi rule; neither will the Alawis, Christians and Druze accept a possible tyranny of the majority by way of democracy (such as in Iraq). Moreover, the Kurds are not about to surrender a de facto independent Rojava, which ideology aside is not dissimilar to Iraq’s KAR.Quote:
Originally Posted by Charles Lister
The following testimony was presented to the United States House Committee on Foreign Affairs on April 27, 2017, by Charles Lister
http://www.mei.edu/content/article/t...policy-options
Selected excerpts and my comments - Part 2/2:
Washington will go with choice “b”. Even if a commitment on the order of Western Europe, Japan and South Korea is the most sensible choice, Americans will balk at the up-front costs. The war in Afghanistan is not even over, but according to the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, development aid to Afghanistan has already cost the U.S. more than the Marshall Plan in equivalent U.S. dollars. That is a damning indictment of “leading from behind”, leaving a “light footprint” or whatever American bureaucrats call a limited and restricted intervention. Note that today, Japan, Western Europe and South Korea are all American allies and host U.S. forces; they all contribute to American and global freedom, peace and prosperity. Conversely, we all know what losing the peace meant in the former Confederate states, Germany, Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya, and what limiting the war effort meant in South Vietnam.Quote:
Originally Posted by Charles Lister
Regarding:Quote:
Originally Posted by Charles Lister
(2) What about the existing pro-Assad zone around Aleppo and the Kurdish zone around Afrin? Assad would have to give up Aleppo to Turkish/FSA forces and the Kurds would be surrounded by Turkish or FSA forces on all sides of their enclave.
(3) Yet there is evidence of ethnic and sectarian cleansing by the YPG against non-Kurds, and Turkey would not be particularly tolerant about a PKK-aligned statelet bordering its restive southeastern Kurdish region.
(4) Why Israel? Nothing brings Syrians of all ethnicities and faiths closer together than the presence of Israeli forces on their soil.
(5) This is a terrible idea. Having Shias and Kurds occupy Sunni Arab areas is a recipe for endless insurgency. It would be preferable to cede this area to Jordan as well. Assad should be confined to his western enclave.
Yet confronting Iran brings with it serious risks, such as the abrogation of the JCPOA with the looming cloud of war to disarm Iran, as well as a spoiling of the anti-Daesh efforts in northern Iraq, which are dependent upon Shia militias subject to a great deal of Iranian influence. In addition to Iraq, Iran could also make life difficult for the U.S. in Afghanistan and turn Hezbollah’s attention back toward Israel.Quote:
Originally Posted by Charles Lister
Azor...I had already seen the Lister comments via social media...BUT here is the interesting thing...outside of social media comments...US MSM and the Trump WH NSC basically ignored his comments...
AND neither Trump WH NSC nor CENTCOM nor US MSM is actively questioning the American support to and for a Communist inspired and led Kurdish PKK a US named terror group...
Example it took social media pointing out that a proRussian mercenary who had fought in the Russian mercenary army in eastern Ukraine and joined the US Army and was on active duty...then finally a single MSM outlet picked it up...and it ended there...
As long as the Trump WH and Trump himself is in total chaos there will be no US FP on just about anything.....
Trump called Obama weak on #SouthChinaSea patrols. 100 days in, he seems to have halted them entirely.
Fmr AG Yates warned WH Jan26 that Flynn could be compromised by Russia. Did Trump lie on Feb10 when asked about it?
Sally Yates to contradict White House about Flynn & Russia. She told WH on Jan 26; Feb 10 Trump said he knew nothing
http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/02/politi...y-contradict/#
Lies..bluffs and "Wag the Dog moments" are not FP....and Assad is still using chemicals...
Playlist of videos relating to the April 2nd 2017 bombing of Maaret al Numan national hospital
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?lis...gvDw66-1bYnGr#
We both know that the MSM rarely gets war and international politics right, if ever.
By Lister on the Kurdish Question in Syria:
Yet in his recommendations, Lister calls for:Quote:
The United States should use its significant diplomatic leverage with Turkey to push for consideration of a ceasefire with the PKK inside Turkey, which may help ease tensions with the YPG across the border in Syria. As part of a package deal with Turkey, the United States could offer to include a select portion of its anti-Assad forces – the majority of which have already been vetted either by the CIA or by CENTCOM – into a broader offensive on Raqqa. This would be a similar arrangement to that worked out for Mosul, where zones of responsibility were pre-arranged between rival or competing factions.
Well, which is it?Quote:
...the formalization of a zone of stability under SDF influence in northeastern Syria.
Should the U.S. resolve the Turkish-Kurdish conflict first before advancing on Raqqa?
If FSA units are to be included in the SDF to dilute the YPG's influence, then should the U.S. resolve the FSA-Assad conflict first? Or after the Turkish-Kurdish one?
Lister has a very good grasp of the situation, but he is unable to proffer good recommendations because there are too many moving parts.
He makes the mistake of suggesting a level of U.S. involvement "that sits in-between" regime change and the status quo. As you may have noticed in South Vietnam, and which younger Americans have noticed in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya, there is no "in-between".
The U.S. had the ability to effectively deny all of these countries to their adversaries with little effort, but it could not establish strong and friendly states without making a total commitment. Note that the Marshall Plan was less expensive than the development costs for Afghanistan, adjusted for inflation.
Moreover, the "zones of calm" that Lister calls for, backed ostensibly by U.S. airpower, are unprecedented in that such a dynamic with internal and external warring parties has never occurred before:
- In Iraq, Iraqi forces had already been decimated by the war with Iran (financially) and then the Gulf War, both of which involved major ground combat
- In Bosnia, the Bosnian Serbs were already under pressure to negotiate, including by Yugoslavia
- In Kosovo, the Serbs believed that a land invasion was imminent and were under pressure from Russia
What is wrong with the status quo, if supplies to the vetted FSA units are increased and efforts are made to reorganize the SDF to include more non-Kurds?
From a public relations perspective, Daesh will probably need to be defeated on the battlefield first before the U.S. can quietly restructure the situation. If Daesh is not a priority, there will be domestic confusion and anger.
And again here is what you simply are not getting...you can "defeat" IS on the ground...BUT again in Iraq I watched the US military claim they "defeated" AQI by 2008/2009...only to have them disperse and go into a very good form of guerrilla warfare working together with the other Sunni insurgent groups....and actually began beating up on Army units in well
carried out swarm attacks....
Which is what both Lister and Orton are pointing towards again happening in both Iraq right now and is coming in Syria...
I will remain on my soap box as long as US FP is operating under the Trump Principle of "Wag the Dog".....which is neither a strategy or a FP and simply uses any action to deflect and or direct attention away from a lack of a strategy and or FP....on anything!
Weeks After Massive US Bomb, IS Still on Air in Afghanistan
by Voice of America
An article here in SWJ.....
THIS Azor is exactly what I posted previously ..you simply cannot "defeat IS militarily on the ground".....they will simply fade as they did in Iraq back into guerrilla warfare....Quote:
Almost three weeks after the United States dropped its most powerful non-nuclear bomb in Eastern Afghanistan, the Islamic State group continues to show battlefield resilience as well as run its FM radio channel in the area.
Actually if one really does reread Mao and his writings on guerrilla warfare....IS is in a phase two actually possibly a full phase three and when pushed hard simply backs back down to a phase two and or phase one guerrilla war..if pushed harder.
AND here is the key in both Iraq and Syria...there will be a lot of disaffected Sunni's remembering the ethnically cleansing by Shia militias or sectarian genocide conducted by Shia's in general and West standing by doing nothing and they will then support quietly that new guerilla war...