Egypt 2007-2016 (merged thread)
ICG, 30 Jan 07: Egypt’s Sinai Question
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Terrorism returned to Egypt in 2004 after an absence of seven years with successive attacks and the emergence of a heretofore unknown movement in Sinai. The government’s reaction essentially has been confined to the security sphere: tracking down and eliminating the terrorists. Egyptian and international NGOs have focused on the human rights violations which have been prominent in police procedures. The media have been preoccupied with whether al-Qaeda was responsible. Both the state’s response and wider public discussion have been confined to the surface of events and have ignored the socio-economic, cultural and political problems which are at the heart of Sinai’s disquiet. The emergence of a terrorist movement where none previously existed is symptomatic of major tensions and conflicts in Sinai and, above all, of its problematic relationship to the Egyptian nation-state. Unless these factors are addressed effectively, there is no reason to assume the terrorist movement can be eliminated...
Egypt Trip Report (Part I)
Egypt Trip Report (Part I)
Entry Excerpt:
Egypt Trip Report (Part I)
by Andrew Exum
Andrew Exum is a contributor to the Small Wars Journal and a fellow at the Center for a New American Security. His dispatches from Egypt will be cross-posted here and on his own blog, Abu Muqawama.
If you've been following my Twitter feed, you'll know I arrived in Cairo a few days ago and will be here for another few days doing some research. I tacked this short visit onto a trip to Europe to help train a unit preparing to deploy to Afghanistan, and I must say it's good to be back in the Arabic-speaking world during what continues to be an exciting time in the region.
This is my first trip back to Egypt since living here for seven months in 2006, and since I am no one's idea of an expert on Egypt and Egyptian politics, I am grateful to my friends here in Cairo for hosting me and providing me with plenty of people to meet with.
The research questions I'll be trying to answer here concern the position in which the Egyptian Army and other security forces now find themselves.
Continue on for Andrew Exum's Egypt Trip Report...
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Egypt Trip Report (Part II)
Egypt Trip Report (Part II)
Entry Excerpt:
Egypt Trip Report (Part II)
by Andrew Exum
Andrew Exum is a contributor to Small Wars Journal and a fellow at the Center for a New American Security. His dispatches from Egypt will be cross-posted here and on his own blog, Abu Muqawama.
I am rather busy today, traveling around looking for answers to some of the security-related questions I posed in Part I of my Egypt Trip Report (see below). I want to briefly share, though, an interesting wrinkle to a rather polarized debate that has developed concerning the role the Internet and social media played in the protests in Egypt and the eventual downfall of Hosni Mubarak. Both sides of the debate, a friend told me last night, are essentially correct: yes, the Internet, Facebook and Twitter played a terribly important role in mobilizing the Egyptians who filled the streets of Egypt to protest the regime. But yes, too, it took ACTUAL BODIES out there in the streets and not "Facebook Revolutionaries" just re-tweeting the struggle from the comfort of their homes. One interesting piece of analysis I have now heard from several smart observers is that by shutting down the Internet and the cellular phone networks, the Egyptian regime actually increased the number of Egyptians on the streets protesting. Not only did shutting down the Internet force people to leave the house and physically connect with their fellow protesters, but one friend noted that if you really want to piss off all of Egypt, a good way to do so is by shutting off cell phone service. More than Facebook or Twitter, cellular phone service unites Egyptians in a virtual community. And by shutting down cellular phone service, you're sure to anger Egyptians of all generations and classes -- and not just the college kids with Facebook accounts. So score one for the enduring power of 20th Century technology, perhaps.
Nothing follows.
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Rethinking Revolution: Egypt in Transition
Rethinking Revolution: Egypt in Transition
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The Egyptian Sinai: A New Front for Jihadist Activity
The Egyptian Sinai: A New Front for Jihadist Activity
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Egypt: has the Spring ended?
Moderator's Note
Egypt features in many SWC threads and what is happening today deserves a new thread. A number of posts on another thread 'Can Military Governments be a good thing (for a while)?' have been moved here, so this opening thread will not appear first (ends).
The situation in Egypt may be the most current experiment on Military Government, we will have to see how it turns out. IMO it can be a good thing if done in accords with the original concept as was presented in the USMC Small Wars Manual.
Egypt: has the Spring ended?
Egypt features in many SWC threads and what is happening today deserves a new thread. A number of posts on another thread 'Can Military Governments be a good thing (for a while)?' have been moved here, so this opening thread will not appear first.
Previous, recent threads of value are:
1) Arab armies and the 'Arab Spring' http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=17859
2) Arab Spring Phase 3? http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=17692
3) Egypt's "Spring" Revolution (now closed) http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=12371
4) The transformation of the Arab World (which looks at the wider impact and the impact on AQ) http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=16634
"Mirroring" can be dangerous....
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Originally Posted by
TheCurmudgeon
I prefer to think that, in other parts of the world, military men think the same way.
IMO, the "mirroring" attitude of the American military--in particular, the Army--caused a lot of problems in "AfPak", especially with regard to old relationships from the time of working with the Pakistan Army and intelligence agencies against the Soviets. Assuming the military in other parts of the world think the same is problematic.
Future historians studying this aspect of the American military, at least circa 2001-2005 or so, are going to have a field day of it, I predict.
But each situation is different and Egypt is not Pakistan. I don't know the Egyptian situation very well so I should probably stick to commenting on South Asia.
This sort of thing always interests me though:
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Egypt’s ruling military has warned against any interference in its murky economic empire amid a burgeoning power struggle with Islamists who control parliament, state media reported March 28.
The warning comes as the military prepares to hand power to a civilian leader when presidential elections end in June, and as the dominant Islamist Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) pressures the generals to sack the government.
Maj. Gen. Mahmud Nasr, a member of the ruling council, warned that the military “will not allow any interference from anyone in the armed forces’ economic projects,” the official MENA news agency reported.
In the unusually detailed defense of the military’s economic ventures, which include factories and hotels, Nasr said the businesses’ annual revenues were 1.2 billion Egyptian pounds ($198 million).
http://www.defensenews.com/article/2...ness-Interests
I have no friggin' idea really. As others have said, we shall see. Perhaps it is a genuinely popular coup that will lead to some more inclusive government and is one step on the road to better governance, maybe it's just one more chapter of the military behind the scenes from the 1950's onward. When does the clock start on the goodness of enlightened militaries stepping in when needed?
Democracy takes a while to stick
Via FP Blog a CNN interview of General Dempsey, US CJCS, which includes this portion on the situation in Eygpt:
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CROWLEY: When you look at what's going on the streets of Egypt and has been for the past several days, what is the U.S. thinking that?
DEMPSEY: Well, at one level, our stake is we probably have 60,000 or so dual-American-Egyptian citizens in Egypt. And we have several hundred official American citizens serving in Egypt. But more broadly, look, Egypt is a great country. It's a cornerstone of the Middle East. It's got an incredible history and culture and the world needs Egypt to be stable.
CROWLEY: But they don't want their government in anymore.
DEMPSEY: Well, you know, I - again, that's for them to decide. And I really mean that sincerely. And incidentally, I mean, as a student of that part of the world, as someone who lived there for most of the last 10 years, not in Egypt but in the region, I mean, what we're seeing is that democracy takes a while to stick.
Link:http://cnnpressroom.blogs.cnn.com/20...k-temporarily/
Video clips of Army - MB confrontation
NYT, Video of Army Shooting Islamists in Cairo Stokes Anger (8 Jul 2013). 16 vid clips; limited editorial comment.
Regards
Mike
Egypt's new revolution puts democracy in danger
The second commentary is from Dr Omar Ashour, an Egyptian, who provides a succinct context for the crisis and ends with:
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But if the junta-led political process somehow did roll back from exclusion, political and media repression, we may yet see a transition similar to Turkey post-1997. The scenarios aren't certain, but what is certain is that the future of Egypt's democracy is in great danger.
What is also certain is that the consequences of ending democratisation in Egypt won't be limited to the country itself. What happens in Egypt never stays in Egypt.
Link:http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisf...cracy-in-peril
Egypt Protest & Power: lessons from 1954 for 2013
Dr Omar Ashour's column reveals the contest in Egypt is not new, it happened in 1954 too (partly cited below) and then looks at today's scene:http://www.project-syndicate.org/com...by-omar-ashour
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Egypt’s crisis has been called the worst in its history. But in fact, it bears a striking resemblance to a previous episode, almost 60 years ago.
On February 28, 1954, almost a million protesters besieged Cairo’s Abdin Palace, then being used by Gamal Abdel Nasser and other leaders of the July 1952 coup. The protesters’ main demands were the restoration of Egypt’s fragile democratic institutions, the release of political prisoners, and the army’s return to its barracks.
The two-month crisis of 1954 was sparked by the removal of Egypt’s president, General Mohammed Naguib, by Nasser and his faction. As in 2013, the Muslim Brotherhood was at the center of events, mobilizing on the side of the deposed Naguib. But, following Nasser’s promises to hold elections in June 1954 and to hand over power to civilians, one of the Brotherhood’s leaders, Abd al-Qadr Audeh, dismissed the protesters.
Nasser’s promises were empty....
He concludes that:
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Any resolution to the current crisis should aim to save the remnants of the only gains made so far in Egypt’s revolution: basic freedoms and democratic institutions. That will require ceasing violent repression, stopping propaganda and incitement in pro-junta media and at pro-Morsi protests, and trust-building measures.
A credible guarantor, possibly the Obama administration, needs to be heavily involved in this process, given the absence of trust among Egypt’s main political actors (indeed, every institution is politicized and willing to cheat if it can). Finally, a referendum on any final deal is essential.
In short, the credibility of ballots and democracy must be restored in Egypt (and throughout the region); bullets and violence must not be allowed to rule.
From my armchair I cannot see the USA taking on such a role, which cannot be private.
There is a main thread on the current situation: Egypt: has the Spring ended? So a merger one day, but this article warrants it's own thread today.
Egypt: When a Coup is Not a Coup
Egypt: When a Coup is Not a Coup
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The 23 Twitter Accounts to Follow on Egypt
The 23 Twitter Accounts to Follow on Egypt
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What did happen to the police vehicle?
Jcustis remarked in Post 26 partly about:
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We can pick up a few clues of the nature of the response, from the footage and stills that are out there of the crack down. One specific one that comes to mind are the sequence of pics of the armored 4-wheel vehicle spilling off of the 4-story overpass.
I've only seen headlines about this incident, so EA Worldview provide a very short video clip before the 'spilling off' and this commentary:
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One of the dramatic stories during Wednesday’s mass killings in Egypt was that anti-regime protesters had pushed a police vehicle off a bridge in a Cairo suburb of Nasr City, near the sit-in that was being attacked by security forces.
We featured a picture of the incident, which supposedly killed several officers, and video which showed the vehicle on the ground as clashes raged around it.
This morning, however, a video has been posted which appears to give a very different version of the event — amid congestion on the 6 October Bridge in Nasr City, the police vehicle hits a bus. It then reverses and skids off the bridge.
While men are following the police van as it backs up, they are not close enough to have “pushed” the vehicle.
Link:http://eaworldview.com/2013/08/egypt...-on-wednesday/
What did one General say?
Egyptian police General Amr in an interview:
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We are 90 million Egyptians and there are only 3 million Muslim Brotherhood We need six months for. liquidate or imprison all this is not a problem, as we have already done in the 1990s.
Link to Le Monde, French newspaper, to a IMO badly structured article, which includes this quote:http://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/articl...3103_3212.html
No wonder some speculate the 'Algerian model' maybe followed:http://blogs.aljazeera.com/blog/midd...erian-playbook
The Brotherhood :Americas Next Great Enenmy
Interview of Author Eric Stakelback Author of The Brotherhood a book about the Muslim Brotherhood and how dangerous they are and their links all the way back to NAZI Germany!
http://www.booktv.org/Watch/14856/Th...eat+Enemy.aspx
Batons not bayonets mattered
A powerful Reuters special report, their title is 'The real force behind Egypt's 'revolution of the state':http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...99908D20131010
It starts with (minus one passage):
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Little attention was paid when a group of Muslim Brotherhood leaders broke free from their cells in a prison in the far off Wadi el-Natroun desert. But the incident, which triggered a series of prison breaks by members of the Islamist group around the country, caused panic among police officers fast losing their grip on Egypt.
In all, 200 policemen and security officers were killed that day, Jan 28, called the Friday of Rage by anti-Mubarak demonstrators. Some had their throats slit. One of the Muslim Brotherhood leaders to escape was Mohamed Mursi, who would become president the following year.
As Egypt appeared to move towards the removal of President Mursi's MB government, much was made of the potential for interaction with the Egyptian military by the US military - was there a relationship with the "batons".