Miltary Situation in Myanmar
Does anyone know of the current military situation in Myanmar?
From the info I have, the Myanmar gov. has been engaged in many insurgencies since its independence from fighting KMT armies which retreated from China in the 50s(who's descendants have become drug armies in the golden triangle(Khun Sa) to ethnic tribal insurgencies(Karen etc.).
It seems the Myanmar gov. has mostly won over teh local insurgencies(the last one was Khun Sa's narco armies which have been coopted into the gov.) but the Karen and other tribes in the east(Thai border) seems to be holding out.
Although I don't disagree with either of you
Is it possible that although Burma is not on the super priority list for us due to current circumstances, The chinese on the other hand probably pay a whole lot more attention to it considering that they have seen what that " breeding ground" problem can end up being for the bigger players. They probably don't want anything adding more fuel to the fire with some of their current areas of trouble and any free ranging in Burma of such groups would seem destined to cause them just as much pain if not more than most.
Burma: some news from a largely ignored conflict.
http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=20650
There's an ongoing violent conflict in Burma. While the west tends to want to focus on the peaceful efforts of Suu Kai & the NLD, not everyone is willing to ignore the junta's crimes against humanity.
interview with a former slave
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oc7qMyIu4G4
This guy was used in a press gang as a porter and human shield for 4 years before his escape to the Karen state.
"Its about Tribes, Stupid"
Have been working with some volunteer buddies helping various ethnic resistance movements and underground activists in this region at intervals now into our seventh year.
After working with ethnics at political, military and grassroots levels, I am not sure of much of anything in this complex land, since I am not on the ground full time. There are, however, a few observations to share.
The media, along with rants from the political Left and Right as well as American audiences, in general, all remain fixated on simplistic images of Burma ... with Aung San Suu Kyi as "the darling of democracy" imprisoned and now released, juxtaposed against the dictator General Maung Aye backed one way or another by profit-hungry nations and international corporations, to include Chevron and TRANSOCEAN.
This misses the point.
After all we have been through in Iraq and Afghanistan in terms of "not getting it" early on in the matter "ethnic power brokers", it is well to consider that the real issue to be creatively faced in Burma is (1) "Ethnic Balance of Power", as well as (2) the role ethnic resistance armies could play in support of vital US National Security interests.
With over 130 different groups and sub-groups, most of which occupy Burma's border areas, and on whose ancestral lands most of Burma's natural resource wealth lies, these ethnic minorities comprise roughly half of the country's populace and legally 7 of its 14 states. The truth is that "Democracy" per means discrimination again to these minorities at the hands of the Burman majority, as has historically been the case. Ethnics dispute the "Democracy First" affirmation of Aung San Suu Kyi, and instead assert that "Matter of National Reconciliation" among all ethnics is the #1 imperative for what ails Burma. Its all about balance, fairness and the righting of old wrongs.
More importantly, ethnic resistance armies comprise the only internal military capacity able to thwart the Burmese dictator backed by China which is after unfettered access to the Indian Ocean. Aung San Suu Kyi and NLD dont have any such capacity. Ethnics, using simple unconventional warfare methods, can be an enduring thorn in the side of all those who seek to profit off of stolen ethnic lands. A target-rich environment.
UW remains the superior form of war in these parts...something that gives ethnics negative leverage to become potential stakeholders in economic development coming like a freight train at them, rather than being mere speed bumps in the way of others' profit.
The Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) for example racked up 80:1 KIA and 120:1 WIA ratios against the Burmese Army in 2009. This is testament to the resolve and competency of freedom fighters who have had their families murdered for decades going up against the conscript and child soldiers in the Burmese Army, which has almost fatally bad morale. Ethnics are a force to be reckoned with no matter how materially impoverished they may be.
Ethnics are also the only internal power base to be applied against the spread of radical Islamists coming through Bangladesh and India. (Bali bombers in 2002 admitted that the Islamic populace of Burma was a future target for radicalization).
So also are ethnic potential "players" in the matter of containing the Burmese dictator's aim of developing nuclear power.
America has a bad track record of not cultivating ethnic power bases well in advance of conflict come surely at us. Burma is now a case in point.
Bottom line. Working now on US vital interests in the region to contain China, radical Islamists and nuclear proliferation, is a compelling reality for us. Yet we remain dangerously fixated on 5 meter targets elsewhere.
Harnessing the Unconventional Warfare power potential of ethnic resistance movements should be part of our "condition setting" calculus. Part of that calculus should involve ethnics compelling needed evolution of the dictator's Dark Ages business model. This could be accomplished by experimenting with more enlightened entrepreneurship ventures that empower the masses as a viable tax base, instead of their being the object of rape, pillage and plunder, as is now the case.
Vulnerability? Fear. The dictator and his stakeholders / supporters are fundamentally fearful of loss of profit, loss of image, loss of economic opportunity, fear of increased insurance costs, fear of media and fear of the truth of what is going on in the shadows. In China's case, it is particularly fearful of unstable access to the Indian Ocean.
Getting wrapped up in Aung San Suu Kyi and NLD (an organization with internal effectiveness and corruption problems) is no different than once again putting all our money and hopes on single ponies like Karzai, Chalabi, and other dictators most recently in the spotlight.
As author Robert D. Kaplan once said when talking about SWA, "Its about tribes, Stupid."
Note: We coincentally smuggled him into the jungles of Burma in 2008 to do research for his present book "Monsoon".
stuck in the middle with juntas
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Originally Posted by
anonamatic
In a lot of respects they're stuck, and that in unpleasant ways.
I appreciate that you took the time to whip up the diplomatic voodoo.:) Thanks for your thoughtful response.
the world's a mess, it's in my keris
Quote:
Farce follows tragedy in Myanmar
By Bertil Lintner
BANGKOK - If Karl Marx was right that history repeats itself first as tragedy and then as farce, Myanmar may have just entered the farcical phase of its long-running military rule. The first general election held in over 20 years last November and announcement that a new elected National Assembly will be convened on January 31 have not excited many ordinary Myanmar citizens, but have led to wild speculation among foreign pundits about what it all means for the country's political future.
Farce follows tragedy in Myanmar - Bertil Lintner - Asia Times Online, Jan 25, 2011
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Quote:
Myanmar, North Korea in missile nexus
By Bertil Lintner
BANGKOK - Military-run Myanmar's growing weapons ambitions, including new revelations that the reclusive regime is producing long-range Scud-type missiles with North Korean assistance, threaten to destabilize the region and make the Southeast Asian country a new global weapons proliferation hotspot.
Myanmar, North Korea in missile nexus - Bertil Lintner - Asia Times Online, Mar 2, 2011
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Quote:
Fog lifts on Myanmar-North Korea barter
By Bertil Lintner
BANGKOK - With the Middle East and North Africa in turmoil, North Korea risks losing some of its oldest and most trusted customers for military hardware. Pyongyang has over the years sold missiles and missile technology to Egypt, Libya, Yemen, the United Arab Emirates, Syria and Iran, representing an important source of export earnings for the reclusive regime. The growing uncertainty among those trade partners could explain why North Korea is now cementing ties with a client much closer to home: military-run Myanmar.
Fog lifts on Myanmar-North Korea barter - Bertil Lintner - Asia Times Online, Mar 4, 2011
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Quote:
Bertil Lintner is a Swedish journalist based in Thailand and the author of several works on Asia, including Blood Brothers: The Criminal Underworld of Asia and Great Leader, Dear Leader: Demystifying North Korea Under The Kim Clan.
Lintner is one of many blacklisted journalists who have not been allowed to enter Burma since 1985. Lintner has written numerous articles and books on Burma, and is considered to be one of the most knowledgeable foreign journalists on Burmese affairs. The State Peace and Development Council says his reports on Burma are groundless and based on wishful thinking.
Bertil Lintner - Wikipedia
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The State Peace and Development Council [...] is the official name of the military regime of Burma (also known as Myanmar), which seized power in 1988.
State Peace and Development Council - Wikipedia (entry listed as 'outdated')