Iraqi "Awakening Groups" as a model for Pakistan and Afghanistan
This aricle is copied by me from Hujra Online, a discussion forum of the website KhyberWatch.com, of which I am the only non-Muslim Member as far as I know.
The fact that I dialogue with vs. talk "at" Paks, Afghans, and other worldwide Muslims who will discuss matters, even though they and I have built in biases, as do you as American troops, gets me onto and into many sites in both the US (academia) and overseas. The Karach DAWN and Peshawar FRONTIER POST print my articles and letters, mainly letters, ever since 9/11 with little or no editing and I pull no punches but am not deliberately rude as all Muslims are not our enemies.
As a non-Member you can still read KhyberWatch.com, the Forums is your area of greatest benefit I would guess, by directly entering in your search box: Hujra Online
No .net nor .com, just Hujra Online.
George Singleton, Colonel, USAF, Ret.
Quote:
Capital suggestion
Muslims Killing Muslims
Sunday, March 30, 2008 - By Dr Farrukh Saleem
In 2005, Pakistanis witnessed a total of four suicide attacks. In 2006, there were seven and in 2007 there were 56; more than one a week. In the first 11 weeks of 2008, there have been 17 suicide attacks; an annualized rate of 80. In 2005, Muslim casualties of terrorist violence in Pakistan numbered 648. In 2006 and 2007, casualties jumped to 1,471 and 3,599, respectively. In the first 10 weeks of 2008 casualties already stand at 1,064 with a daily average of 14 and an annualized rate of over 5,000.
Why are Muslims killing Muslims? Is there a connection between suicide attacks and lack of education? Is there a correlation between suicide attacks and poverty? Is there a connection between suicide attacks and the followers of Islam?.....
Durranistan - The Unification of Pakistan and Afghanistan
Some other stuff I did, and across this theme I came:
What about uniting Pakistan and Afghanistan?
Would it stabilize the region, or rather de-stabilize further (is that possible)?
What would the neighbours say? Esp India and Iran?
What would that country look like and what role would/could it play in the larger region?
Would it be a threat? Would it turn extremist/lawless (more than now)? Would it be in permanent civil war (more than now)?
And what kind of structure could/should it have?
Without much analysis I say Durranistan could actually be a quite good idea! Based on a federal concept it could work.
Opinions?
Racially motivated, bad idea
The Pukhtun nationalist movement all too often is racially motivated, have little to no interest in minority tribes and factions in Northern Pakistan nor inside Afghanistan, either.
Attacking the 100 years standing of the Durand Line, the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan is as often as not a Pukhtun rallying cry.
How about all the Scot-Irish ancestry US and Canadian folks forming a new nation of Scot-Irishastan out of a huge slice (jigsaw puzzle piece) of current US and Canadian soverign territory and name the newly cut out nation as mentioned here?
Folks can come up with reasons to infinity to redraw political boundaires but the less of that we have the less foreign aid and military involvement we will have to get into.
Do we want the Kurds to form Kurdistan as was promised to them by the Great Powers at the end of WW I? Then expect Turkey to invade Iraq, and associated wild events to ensure for the rest of our natural lives and into generations to come.
My two cents.
We substantially agree here
I agree that FATA will have full Province status, that is a good thing in my book.
Afghanistan to recognize the Durland Line, this was the case under the late King (who died maybe a year ago. the ex-King called the Grand Jurga which helped kick off the current movement toward some version of democracy in Afghanistan after 9/11).
Your insights and awareness of some details in Pakistan/Afghanistan as a Brit...what did you do over there to have such good insight? When, what years?
Overview of Pakistan / Afghanistan
The link belows refers to testimony to the UK House of Commons Foriegn Affairs Committee 28/2/09 by four experts (Thanks to Kings of War):
http://www.publications.parliament.u...-i/uc30202.htm
Lots to mine within, particularly over the UK in Helmand and a lack of guidance. Sean Langan, kindnapped by the Taliban and held in the FATA, makes many interesting comments. ISI and the pakistani Army get a mention too.
Fascinating stuff and to American readers will be different to what you see regularly IMHO.
davidbfpo
Looking over the precipice
Carl,
Should Pakistan lurch towards the final state of chaos / oblivion not only would India be concerned at who had the nukes; China, Iran, Saudi Arabia and those further away. Would the nukes be transferred or seized by a "concerned" party?
How would Pakistan react to an Indian move, say to resolve Kashmir and so avert oblivion? A military confidence building measure that enabled the Pakistani Army to deploy away from the border?
Just a few thoughts.
davidbfpo
Semi-autonomy hasn't helped...
...since 1947 until end of the 1960s Pakistan's various governments have consistently allowed a great deal of autonomy in the NWFP area, FATA, Swat, etc.
Radical Islam was always present even in the mid-1960s when I was stationed there, but has as everyone knows today much worse no thanks to al Qaida and the Taliban.
Extremist Islamics are in all parts of the country, fueled, peopled by fomrerly harmless madrassas which are radicalized today due to Wahabbi Islamics (terrorists mongers) out of Saudi, who finance, arm, and give radical theological guidance.
A major US university about 2 or so years ago decided they would run a program from the US into Pakistan madrassas and uplift moderate modrassas and moderate theologians teaching there. End result: The damn idiots at the US University (name withheld on purpose) bragged on line, in articles, etc. of their "progress" so stupid much that both al Qaida and the Taliban were able to 100% target the so-called moderate teachers, all of whom were then systematically murdered. How stupid can we be to be talking at the President's level, in the open, all over again, in a manner as the major US university did?
Just some overly obvious thoughts in reaction to your good, well research above inputs.
Monday, March 9 NEW YORK TIMES re Pakistan events
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/09/wo..._r=1&th&emc=th
Regrettably a careful reading of this NYT story shows:
1. Any successes, no matter how small, by and of the Taliban and al Qaida are trumpeted by the world media as "wins"
2. Whereas any successes, no matter how small, by and of the Pakistan military and/or our allied/NATO forces in Afghanistan/on the Pakistani side of the border are trumpted by rthe world media as "disasterous losses."
How bad is the situation in Pakistan ?
The lead stories for 14-15 Mar at Thai-Indian News are not very upbeat.
Bob, you seem to be contradicting yourself...
Quote:
The other new factor is the rise of non-state actors like AQ, that can now wage unconventional warfare to join and enflame disparate local causes like only state actors could previously. They also are able to do this relatively immune from the time tested DIME tools of statecraft to control such actions among fellow states. A dynamic leader with a powerful ideology like Hitler needed to first attain control of a state in order to have significant impact. Today attaining a state creates an Achilles heel and is to be avoided by such. Bin Laden knows this full well and has no desire to soon abandon the "legal sanctuary" of his current status.
My two years in Paksitan in the mid-1960s fits this topic pretty well, as I picked up the additional duty of managing RON of walking wounded from South Vietnam immediately after the Gulf of Tonkin...and I had been "in the area or arena if you like" prior to the Gulf of Tonkin to have a young man's impression of things to come over there.
Bob, when the whole free world's intel system is jointly wrong, not by collusion to decieve but due to wrong info leading to wrong suppositions, referring to Iraq, this does not undo the continuium fact that ever since the first Gulf of Tonkin [which I volunteered back on duty for and ran the entire airlift for the East Coast, based out of Charleston AFB, but covering the coast, up and down, for that war]..the "ideology or theory" of containment, isolation, and sanctions failed miserably and was not working...in fact by Saddam and his grizzly gang, together with various Western business people in Europe...found ways and means to get richer off of the UN and associated organizations well intentioned by embezzeled morally and literally...programs to provide medicine and food for the ordinary Iraqi citizens.
My today, 2009, friends in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and here in the US, I refer here to my Muslim friends, both Shia and Sunnis, who are both over there and have family here..some of whom are in my home town here in sunny Alabama...tell me, not I them...that the radical Islamic terrorists are succeeding in "kidnapping Islam."
They tell me, but I do agree, that the updated concept of the Umah is stateless and being construed by the Taliban and al Qaida to be the "ideological" state of mind desired to seek to take over the minds and religious freedoms of the world, starting with other Muslims, but extending to all others of differeing faiths, or for that matter, even those of no faith.
You emphasis is to seek a mold, updated, that stamps in common outcomes from the past down to today. I disagree, just as I disagree with the two generals featured in another part of SWJ who complain about folks using high faluting words, confusing terminology which they think confuses young officers and NCOs, but as much, my view, seems to confuse them!
Chaos and mayhem have always been what that says, and is a piece of the puzzle in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Whether it is Musharraf, Zardari, or whoever comes next in Pakistan...and a deposed ex-Chief Justice of the Pakistan Supreme Court has no business under their, Pakistani, Constitution which I know a little about...trying to be the top dog and dictator over the non-sectarian PPP elected President of Pakistan.
The Shariff brothers, one of whom was the PM of Paksitan whom Musharraf deposed, are as crooked as it gets and ex-PM Shariff has trucked with the Taliban, and al Qaida, heavily and supported/enabled them both when he was PM, which is part of why Musharraf overthrew him (Shariff).
The Uman as a terrorist adopted and distorted concept is stateless, seeks to draw in or force in, more correctly said, into radical Sunni/Wahabbi driven Islam, the masses of the world, if they but could.
The boogey man? Not yet, but if pacifist ideas took hold here in the West, if we don't keep insisting that Pakistan permanently install peacekeeping forces inside the NWFP and related areas of Pakistan to back up and directly in most cases enforce civil law and order...instead of, my studied opinion, Zardari and/or the flag ranks and ISI sending troops from where they are and were most needed to senseless postings on the Indian border...allegedly over Mumbai terrorism which Pakistan has made clear was instigated, planned, funded, and driven from within Pakistan to inside India... then there is no rational hope.
No, the US cannot police the world, literally, even with our NATO allies. But we can back and support when they can be trusted [and as often as not the ISI and Pak flag rangs are not trustworthy but support radical Islamic terrorists such as the Taliban and even al Qaida) the duly elected non-sectarian government of President Zardari over that of the ex-Chief Justice of the Pakistani Supreme Court, Mr. Justice Chowdry...who would use the court system to run yet another dictatorship of Pakistan...all over again!
It is a mess, but we cannot turn our backs on all this, but we cannot fix it ourselves, either.
So Bob, you have your quasi pacifist influence views and I have my hawkish views, but we both are looking at as you so correctly wrote of...stateless religious terrorism which is bent on worldwide trouble making if we don't keep them pinned in where they are until some sort of resolution in maybe....generations to come...can be realized.
I would never trust these religious terrorist thugs with nukes, and I can tell you it makes my native Pakistani friends, both Shia and Sunnis, loose sleep at night as that prospect grows daily with the chaos inside Pakistan.
So Bob, as during WWII, when actual pacifists refused combat duty but were useful in support non-combat roles, your ideology and ideas have a place in the puzzle, as do mine focused on what I know to be the cold reality of terrorism in the name of Islam. No Bob, all Muslims are not terrorists, but even one such Islamic terrorist is one too many today with nuclear weaponry control and use at stake inside Pakistan...and the possibility of tactical nukes being used elsewhere...fill in the blanks...that makes me loose sleep!
Debate and views in two threads: a note
I have moved two posts on another thread, Special Warafre 1962, by Bob's World and George S., to this a more appropriate thread on Afghanistan / Pakistan. The other thread started IMHO to disperse somewhat. (PM to both sent). So if the views seem slightly disjointed blame me and look at the other thread please.
davidbfpo
David, what is your opinion ...
re: the question I asked in post #10 ?
Some Shariffs financial holding u may not know of...
Quote:
Originally Posted by
davidbfpo
JMM,
Distracted at the moment and have not watched Pakistan as closely as usual. I did watch the newsreel yesterday of Sharif's "long march" and the BBC repporter's comment that the police were active in opposition and then disappeared.
Others who watch Pakistan have remarked that the abyss is not close-by and that large parts of civil society remain strong. Not sure if the decision to restore the Chief Justice supports or detracts from this.
davidbfpo
David et al:
The Shariff brothers are among the wealthiest land owners in and from the Pakistani Province of Punjab.
Punjab used to inclue all of what is today's NWFP, until 1901, as I wrote on SWJ yesterday.
The Shariff family reaches back to Raj era India and had and still has vast land, timber, and mining holdings both in today's Pakistani Punjab, as well as inside today's NWFP and inside today's Swat. I think the Shariffs own copper mine(s) in Swat, among other things.
To my eye these economic business interests the Shariffs own in now troubled terrorist zones explains to me that ex-PM Shariff when he was PM (overthrown in 1999 by Musharraf who knows all about these holdngs) and his brother have in the past (through 1999) and are again at the present among the power centers favoring "deals" with the Taliban...in order to preserve and protect their land, timber, and mining and any other related business interests in ex-Punjab zone now defined as today's NWFP, Swat, etc.
Hope this background helps you all better understand what the Pukhtuns don't like about Punjabis, particularly about the Shariffs who they voted against, not for, by voting for either the PPP or the ANP in the Presidential and Parliamentary national and provincial elections in 2008 in Pakistan.
Cheers,
George
Documentary on Pakistan's Taliban generation
Broadcast on Monday, on the UK Channel Four, a 49 minute long documentary made by a Pakistani lady reporter: http://www.channel4.com/video/brandl...ban-generation
The main website for short clips and commentary is: http://www.channel4.com/programmes/dispatches
Recommended by local contacts and to be watched later today; Spring is here and into the garden.
davidbfpo
Global Hujra Online citation: 3/29 Pakhtun's opinions
http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6416
I think posting #6 may be of interest and perhaps best fits under this established thread by David.
Here is a pinpoint quote from this Internet Pakhtun website that is encouraging to me:
Quote:
As I have already mentioned that we have always been enmeshed in proxy wars. We dont have much of the options. We have to wait. The govt should try something on the line of Swat, where reconciliation should be fostered to bring a temporary peace and stop further bloodshed. None of the member of this forum will agree, but I am of the opinion that if the local support army in reporting against taliban activities, I am sure this menace will be ended soon. Army is inactive due to non-cooperation from the civil population. Understandably, Taliban have killed many civilians having links with the army and therefore, I understand that civilians are hesitant to report anything to the army. But we have take risk otherwise this fire may take longer than our expectation.
It is not the job of civil population to fight with Taliban, it is the duty of Law enforcing agencies. So we better assist them in performance of their duties.
Patchwork steamroller: Kilcullen on Afpak
David Kilcullen has written a review in The Spectator: http://www.spectator.co.uk/the-magaz...urzon-do.thtml
I particularly like the description of the current Pakistani operation: 'a patchwork steamroller'.
The last paragraph will be familiar to SWC: For Britons and Americans watching the hard-fought progress of our Coalition troops in Helmand, the harsh reality is that Nato could do everything right in Afghanistan and still lose the broader regional campaign against terrorism if Pakistan fails to contain its internal militants. (My emphasis) This makes the fight in Pakistan, and finding means to help Pakistanis help themselves, the most important battle in the world.
davidbfpo
Pakistan rounds up the Quetta Taliban and now let's one go? (updated title)
(Moderator's Note another thread 'Nearly half of Afghan Taliban leadership arrested in Pakistan', which was started 25/2/10 merged into this and re-named as 'Rounding Up').
Well, I've checked this very large board the best I can and found no mention of this incredible news that the Afghan taliban's operational #2, Abdul Ghani Baradar was capture a few days ago in Karachi. NYT held off the story until today-
Secret Joint Raid Captures Taliban's Top Commander-NYT Mazzetti Feb. 16, 2010
Baradar was profiled last summer in this excellent NEWSWEEK article.
This is MASSIVE news. That he was captured in Karachi wasn't particularly surprising. There've been rumors of the Afghan taliban leadership relocating quietly for some time. Too, Hakimullah Mehsud of the TTP supposedly expired in Multan on his way for treatment in Karachi. Karachi is increasingly playing a prominent role in the GWOT. That an Afghan Taliban commander was captured in Pakistan at all IS surprising in light of eight plus years of sanctuary. The implications of a sea-change in Pakistani perspectives is profound.
Thanks.