Saudi Arabia: seeking security (catch all)
Moderator's Note
This thread until January 22nd 2015 was entitled 'Terrorism, CT and internal issues in Saudi Arabia', the title has been changed to reflect a wider remit and the new title is 'Saudi Arabia: seeking security (catch all)' (ends).
Today on BBC: Saudis 'foil oil facility attack'
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Saudi security forces have foiled an apparent suicide car bomb attack on a major oil production facility in the eastern town of Abqaiq. Guards opened fire on at least two cars carrying explosives as they tried to ram the gates. Two guards were killed...
By coincidence, the Jamestown Foundation just published this report today (which was actually in their pub Terrorism Monitor yesterday): Saudi Oil Facilities: Al-Qaeda's Next Target?
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Former CIA agent Robert Baer has considered the implications of terrorist attacks on Saudi oil facilities, writing, "At the least, a moderate-to-severe attack on Abqaiq would slow average production there from 6.8 million barrels a day to roughly a million barrels for the first two months post-attack, a loss equivalent to approximately one-third of America's current daily consumption of crude oil. Even as long as seven months after an attack, Abqaiq output would still be about 40 percent of pre-attack output, as much as four million barrels below normal—roughly equal to what all of the OPEC partners collectively took out of production during the devastating 1973 embargo" (see Robert Baer's Sleeping with the Devil: How Washington Sold our Soul for Saudi Crude). An al-Qaeda assault on Abqaiq would have the added propaganda effect of killing Americans. Abqaiq is an oil-company town; in 2005, nearly half of its approximately 2,000 inhabitants were U.S. citizens.
The Impact of the Abqaiq Attack on Saudi Energy Security
Follow-up report from CSIS: The Impact of the Abqaiq Attack on Saudi Energy Security
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It is too early to know the full details of what actually took place at the Abqaiq oil facility in eastern Saudi Arabia, but early reports indicate that an attempted attack was foiled by Saudi security forces on February 24, 2006. The news caused oil prices to jump more than $2 a barrel.
The reaction of the oil market—that is all too aware of geopolitical, security, and economic risks—is expected. The attack comes amidst continuing instability in Iraq, the uncertainty regarding the Iranian nuclear issue, and the ongoing violence and supply disruption in Nigeria.
Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest oil producer and exporter. It holds 25% of the world’s proven oil reserves (261 billion barrels), produces 12.5% of the world’s oil production (9.0-9.5 million barrels a day), and exports 16% of world’s total exports (7.5 million barrels a day). Furthermore, the Kingdom has the largest surplus oil production capacity (approximately 1.1-1.8 million barrels a day.
The stability of the global oil market depends not only on the Kingdom’s capacity to meet shortages in oil supply, but also in its ability to reassure the market. In the past, Saudi Arabia has played the role of “swing producer” to meet shortages in supply. Now, the attention is focused on the Kingdom’s ability to meet global oil demand and protect its key oil facilities.
In the case of Abqaiq, even if some of the facilities were destroyed, Saudi Aramco has claimed that it has backup and redundant facilities to produce at near capacity. The same fears about Saudi energy security arose after the May 2004 attack in Yanbu. During that incident, the Saudi security forces were also able to suppress the attack. The terrorists were quickly killed and the facilities in Yanbu were not in danger. That, however, did not stop speculation about Saudi energy security.
Saudi, the carrot and the stick ...
Today, the stick as the Kingdom gets down to trying its backlog of AQ detainees.
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Yahoo News
Saudi Arabia indicts 991 suspected Al Qaeda militants
By Caryle Murphy – Wed Oct 22, 4:00 am ET
....
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia – Saudi Arabia has begun the judicial process for putting on trial nearly 1,000 suspected Al Qaeda militants accused of terrorist-related crimes dating back to 2003, the Saudi Interior Minister announced.
"We have started to bring before the judiciary 991 people implicated in various incidents," Interior Minister Prince Naif bin Abdul Aziz told the Saudi Press News Agency late Monday. "Each case will be examined in stages."
This is the first time the government has disclosed the number of defendants accused in connection with the wave of terrorist violence that hit the nation.
......
Last month, Prince Naif told a group of visitors that the suspects "all will be transferred to the judiciary to give its verdict on them in accordance with what God has ordained to prevent sedition.... We don't punish anybody except on the basis of a court verdict," local papers reported. .....
http://news.yahoo.com/s/csm/20081022/wl_csm/otrials
Wikileaks adds more embarrassment: About hearts & minds in Saudi Arabia
WikiLeaks cables: Jihad? Sorry, I don't want to miss Desperate Housewives
The leak is incredibly embarrassing to the government, but that embarrassment looks largely well-deserved because the government is overrated.
An update on slow justice
Hat tip to LWOT:
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Saudi Arabia on January 8 began the trial of 16 suspected members of al-Qaeda accused of killing a policeman, plotting to attack government officials and military weapons facilities, smuggling weapons and training militants to fight in Iraq and Afghanistan (Reuters). The suspects are just a few of several thousand arrested in the Kingdom's clampdown on militancy between 2003 and 2006, of whom most have already faced trial according to the Saudi government, though human rights groups disagree and have said the government continues to hold thousands of political prisoners under the pretense of militancy.
Link to Reuters report:http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...80708W20120108
Link to LWOT briefing, KSA is just one item:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...nse_in_florida
The quiet war in Saudi Arabia
Recent disorder in the Eastern Province received some coverage here and then faded away:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16543013
This link is to a background comment, although the author is Washington-based let's say his viewpoint is slanted:http://www.opendemocracy.net/joshua-...n-saudi-arabia
I know disorder in this reportedly mainly Shia minority dominated province has long been feared by outsiders, being adjacent to the oilfields.
Saudis to build 1k border fence
A slightly odd BBC report, by Frank Gardner, who is in Saudi Arabia - where he was shot and crippled in 2004. This report starts with 'Saudis build 1,000-mile Yemen border fence', a 'Morice Line' again:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22086938
His first report aims to:
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..to unpick why the Arab Spring has not happened in the Kingdom.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22050745
On SWC we have debated whether a fence or 'Morice Line' can work and in a variety of settings: French ruled Algeria (where the Morice Line was built), Rhodesia and Afghanistan. Not to overlook the US-Mexico border. Link:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ghlight=morice
The Saudis of course have what other builders did not, money and more money.
Whether a fence is enough of an answer to the pressures within Saudi Arabia is a moot point. See thread on internal troubles:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=16968
Assessing Two Countering Violent Extremism Programs: Saudi Arabia’s PRAC and the Unit
The times are a'changing: a Wahhabi democrat
A staunch conservative preacher in Saudi Arabia has changed his views, to the alarm of the regime:
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Mr. Awda had something akin to a conversion moment during the Arab uprisings of 2011, and since then has become a passionate promoter of democracy and civic tolerance.
....even published a book called “Questions of Revolution.” Promptly banned here but widely disseminated on the Internet, the book drew on Islamic texts and history to reach some very unorthodox conclusions: that democracy is the only legitimate form of government; that Islam does not permit theocracy; that separation of powers is required; that the worst despotism is that practiced in the name of religion.
He openly declares his admiration for the democratic inclinations of the Muslim Brotherhood, which is anathema to the Saudi royals.
Link:http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/05/wo...=67232673&_r=0
A Saudi Psychologist on Jihadism and more
A Huffington Post article, the full title being 'A Saudi Psychologist on Jihadism, Clerical Elite and Education Reform':http://www.huffingtonpost.com/joseph...d&ir=WorldPost
This is a clue:
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Clinical psychologist Abdullah al-Garni serves a niche clientele: recovering jihadists. He heads the mental health division at the Mohammed bin Naif Center for Counseling and Advice, a halfway house for members of Al-Qaeda and other groups who have served prison time in Saudi Arabia or at the U.S. Government-run Guantanamo Bay detention facility.
The most interesting Q&A is:
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Q: How did Islam come to be used as a justification for terrorism among Saudis?
A: It is a matter of how a group of so-called clerics interpret, or misinterpret, Islam. In
Surat Al 'Imran of our Holy Book, it says, "No one knows [the Qur'an's] true interpretation except God, and those who are well-grounded in knowledge say, 'We believe in it. All of it is from our Lord.'" But some clerics stop in the middle of the verse, and just say, "No one knows [the Qur'an's] true interpretation except God and those who are well-grounded in knowledge." Then they put it to you that they alone are well-grounded in knowledge, and go on to use the half-sentence as a divine mandate for their own authority. If we claim that our religion is a peaceful religion, calling for peace between nations and between religions, then these false foundations need to be addressed.
Saudia Arabia: we have a problem
This week Richard Barrett, ex-diplomat (UK & UN posts) and now with the Soufan Group, commented that trained Saudi military personnel are defecting to ISIS. He drew attention to the oddity in a February 2014 statement by the King that fighting abroad meant a five year prison sentence for citizens and seven and half years for those who serve in the military.
His estimate, based on visits to Saudi Arabia, was that 2,500-3,000 have gone to fight; with three hundred in rehab centres (maybe intercepted before leaving or returned).
In my background reading this week I found suggestions that the Saudi army were deploying to the northern border (maybe easier to defect then?).
Copied to here from the current thread on Iraq.
Just a small war on the border with the Yemen
A rare report spotted:http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...0FA04620140705
The KSA has a problem:
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The kingdom .....said in May it had detained 62 suspected al Qaeda militants with links to radicals in Syria and Yemen who it said it believed were plotting attacks on government and foreign targets in the kingdom.
So many Saudis support the aims of ISIS
Within a broad article by Peter Oborne, a British journalist writing in a US outlet, was this snippet, with my emphasis in bold:
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This is because ISIS is not a mutation of Islam, as Obama has asserted. It is all too faithful to the literalist Saudi interpretation of Sunni Islam as set out by its 18th-century founder Muhammad Ibn Abd al-Wahhab. Hence the extraordinary popularity of ISIS within Saudi Arabia itself. According to a recent poll in the Saudi-funded Arab newspaper Al-Hayat, an astonishing 92% of Saudis believe that ISIS conforms to the values of Islam and Islamic law.
Link:http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/...e-on-the-west/
Even leaving aside my sceptcism of polling in a place like KSA we know there is support for a harsh version of Islam, not to that extent.
The missiles we overlook: the Saudi's SSM
The Chinese surface to surface missiles (SSM) that the Saudi Strategic Missile Force have are IMHO overlooked, so good to see a review article with many links by a counter-proliferation SME:http://www.nti.org/analysis/articles...les-its-saber/
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Saudi Arabia clearly envisions its strategic missile force as a deterrent to the growing missile arsenals of its neighbors....Analysis of new bases near Ad-Dawadmi and Ash-Shamli suggest that Tel Aviv and Tehran remain the most important strategic targets for the Saudi Strategic Missile Force.....Some Saudi clerics and analysts describe the Houthi threat as more dangerous to the stability of the Kingdom than even the Islamic State. Like Iran, Yemen has purchased a significant number of Scud missiles from North Korea that might threaten Saudi Arabia if the government were to become hostile.
(Ends with) It is hardly surprising that, in such an environment, Saudi Arabia would seek to improve its ability to deter missile attacks. The display of the DF-3 missiles, along with Saudi Arabia's generally increased openness about its missile capabilities, is intended to ensure that those capabilities will be well enough understood by potential adversaries for Riyadh to enjoy their full deterrent value
Well that is reassuring or is it?
There are two other threads on Saudi Arabia, one on the sometimes fraught relationship with the USA and another on internal security. I expect there are posts elsewhere, notably over the reaction to a likely Iranian nuclear weapon capability.
ISIS incursion into KSA: the target?
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It later emerged that one of the dead soldiers was no ordinary border guard but the commander of Saudi Arabia’s northern border forces, Brigadier General Awdah al-Balawi. This suggests that the attack, far from being random or opportunistic, had been carefully targeted and perhaps based on inside information regarding the general’s whereabouts.
Link:http://www.theguardian.com/commentis...cal-links-isis
The wider problem:
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...it is in no position to confront Isis at the ideological level. The problem here is that Isis and the Saudis’ Islamic kingdom are ideologically similar, so attempts to challenge Isis on ideological grounds risk undermining the Saudi state too.
Another wall: to keep people in or out?
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The Saudis are building a 600-mile-long “Great Wall” - a combined fence and ditch - to separates the country from Iraq to the north. ....The proposal had been discussed since 2006, at the height of the Iraqi civil war, but work began in September last year after Isil’s charge through much of the west and north of the country gave it a substantial land border with the Kingdom to the south.
Link, which ahs a map and graphic:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...-out-Isil.html
Saudi Arabia Plunges into an Abyss
Originally posted under Middle East General, but on second thought I believe it deserves it own thread for awhile.
John Robb provides an analysis on the ISIS attack on Saudi that is both interesting and flawed. He loses credibility when he implies ISIS coordinated the Paris attacks instead of ISIS's competitor for the Caliphate which is al-Qaeda. Nonetheless, the rest of the analysis is thought provoking.
Robb suggests the reduction of oil prices is principally directed at ISIS, but if ISIS picks up their operations the price of oil could quickly soar to $150.00 a barrel. That would result in weakening the West economically and strengthening ISIS (and Russia), so embracing the State Department's version of strategy, gee I hope that doesn't happen.
Robb also makes an interesting point that ISIS needs to keep moving to stay alive (attract recruits and funding). Overstated in some aspects, but I tend to agree there is an element of truth in this, which is why AQAP was quick to claim responsibility for the attacks in Paris. We now have market based jihad, where competitors are seeking to dominate the jihad market (recruits and funding). So far the competition is based on a zero-sum approach versus a win-win approach. I could see a future where the larger company buys out the smaller companies, but that will take time.
http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/...-an-abyss.html
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Here why this attack is significant.
It tells us that ISIS is starting to focus on Saudi Arabia --> with good reason. The reason is that there's simply no other way to unite the various groups under the ISIS banner. ISIS, like all open source movements, needs to keep moving in order to stay alive (like a shark). Right now, ISIS has stalled. A jihad to retake the holy sites from the corrupt regime in Riyadh can serve as a simple plausible promise that can reignite the open source war ISIS started, on a global scale.
Comparing Daesh and KSA legal punishments
A WaPo article 'How Saudi Arabia’s harsh legal punishments compare to the Islamic State’s', from which the Twitter image originates from. As the author concludes relationships with partners are rarely completly "black -v- white" regarding common standards:
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...for many Americans, the extremist group's rise is also bringing with it a renewed skepticism about American allies in the region.
Link:http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...slamic-states/
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B7z1HcsCUAEliRF.jpg