Iraq: Out of the desert into Mosul (closed)
Like many here following Iraq is not a priority. AM today I read via Twitter reports that Mosul, Iraq's second city had fallen to ISIS, after Iraqi forces crumbled and left.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-27778112 and http://eaworldview.com/2014/06/iraq-...ke-part-mosul/
I am aware, from old SWC threads, that the Kurds watch the city closely, but was unaware that our old friends - geography and water - play a part:
Quote:
It was also unclear whether ISIS fighters had managed to cross the Tigris river, which dissects the city into two parts, and are also threatening the eastern bank, which is mostly Kurdish. But it appeared clear that the western bank, which represents the original heart and commercial center of Mosul, is in insurgent hands.
Link:http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...674_story.html
Just whether the Kurds will sit and watch is unclear.
As others who watch the region more closely comment there is a growing ISIS governed territory / enclave stretching across Iraq into Syria.
Fall of Mosul ISIS now heading back to Salahaddin
The Pesh are not in Mosul anymore. They are deployed to the east and north of the city. The ISF completely collapsed in Mosul last night and now ISIS is heading back towards Salahaddin province. It is repeating the same strategy that Zarqawi laid out before his death. To take Anbar, then urban centers, surround Baghdad, and then start fighting within the capital itself. Here are a couple reports you might be interested in to explain the current situation in Iraq:
Iraq's deteriorating security situation interview with Alexandre Massimo
http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/20...situation.html
Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant Storm Samarra In Salahaddin
http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/20...ant-storm.html
Beginning of June 2014 Deadliest In Iraq
http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/20...t-in-iraq.html
Islamic State of Iraq Launches Battle of Ninewa In Mosul
http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/20...es-battle.html
ISIS seized huge stores of equipment from ISF
ISIS took a major army base and air force base in Mosul and also the Baiji repair/supply depot of the army. Has captured 2 helicopters and hundreds of humvees, trucks, etc. Also just took the Baiji refinery and power station two of the largest in northern Iraq.
Islamic State of Iraq’s 2014 Uprising And Security Forces Collapse
Here's my latest on ISIS advance south from Mosul into Salahaddin and Kirkuk and the collapse of the security forces
http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/20...-uprising.html
After the 'Awakening' the 'Surge' and now XXXXXXX
Turkish diplomats seized, including a former adviser to the Prime Minister and ISIS claim they are being "interviewed about crimes" (From Twitter). So will Turkey react?
The Kurds calculating if they should respond, leaving aside for a moment their perennial split over power and revenue. Some reports of Peshmerga taking the civil airport @ Mosul and clashes on the road to Kirkuk. Some of which is covered here by a Kurdish website, so maybe read with caution:http://rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/11062014
Just about the best piece I've seen today:http://arabist.net/blog/2014/6/11/ma...st-solemn-hour
A commentary written in mid-May 2014, which sets the scene and has this passage:
Quote:
ISIS has created a multi-ethnic army; almost a foreign legion, to secure its territory. These cadres—trained, indoctrinated, networked, equipped and funded—will doubtless present a challenge for Arab and Western security services in the coming years, all the more so if not dealt with in the very near future.
Link:http://warontherocks.com/2014/05/sta...raq-and-syria/
Will Baghdad be able to respond, apart from reading poetry to boost ISF morale? Already I note references to enlisting (buying?) support from Iranian supported Shia militia and as one "wag" suggested Hezbollah are the solution.
From my faraway armchair and with no ground knowledge I do find the scenes of the civilian population exit noteworthy, with allowance that they maybe non-Sunni minorities.
No more population centric COIN
Quote:
Originally Posted by
carl
That's silly. It has been years since we left and years since we had much influence on how the Iraqi gov handled things both politically and militarily. From what I've read they've done a bunch of the idiot things we did in the beginning until we wised up.
As soon as the U.S. withdrew its military the Iraqi security forces reverted to the same kind of strong arm tactics Saddam carried out and the Americans did pre-Surge. That being raiding and then leaving areas, mass arrests, taking families hostage of people on wanted lists, indefinite detention, abuse and torture of prisoners, etc. The positives of U.S. style COIN never sunk in with Iraqis and they went back to what they were used to doing once we departed.
backgrounder on Iraqi insurgency
If you want a backgrounder on the Iraqi insurgency, the Islamic State and the other groups, their ideology and where operate please read my interview with Aymenn Jawad al-Tamimi
http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/20...interview.html
Also must recommend my interview with Alexandre Massimo again on how the security situation deteriorated after 2011 in Iraq. How the insurgency was able to rebuild itself and how the Iraqi forces became ineffective.
http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/20...situation.html