A new thread for 2016-2017. The current thread which started in 2011 has had 47k views and 222 posts:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=12784
Time for a new thread, as this war is very unlikely to end soon.
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A new thread for 2016-2017. The current thread which started in 2011 has had 47k views and 222 posts:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=12784
Time for a new thread, as this war is very unlikely to end soon.
Want to understand how sectarianism fits into the conflict in #Yemen? This by @almuslimi is a great place to start. http://carnegieendowment.org/syriaincrisis/?fa=62375 …
How war, Gulf tension & identity politics are poisoning formerly live-&-let-live #Yemen with sectarianism
The new wave of sectarian rhetoric in #Yemen draws on many sources, but there has been a fascinating historical interplay between the rise of Sunni-chauvinist salafism in northern Yemen, pioneered by the #Saudi-trained salafi Muqbil Wadei, which fuelled the simultaneous rise of an #Iran-influenced counter-movement that "Shiafied" Zaydism—the Houthis. All of this took place among tribes that had fought plenty but never bothered much with otherizing people on religious grounds. Familiar story: fringe radicals weaponize sectarian shibboleths to increase polarization, gaining support while tearing the country apart.. Societies are brittle things
...here what I find a very interesting (if not outright 'ultimately important') feature on coming-into-being of one of most important legends about the ongoing Yemen War:
How False Stories of Iran Arming the Houthis Were Used to Justify War in Yemen
Quote:
Diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks reveal that the story of the arms onboard the ship had been concocted by the government.
...
The government of the Republic of Yemen, then dominated by President Ali Abdullah Saleh, claimed that it had seized a vessel named Mahan 1 in Yemeni territorial waters on October 25, 2009, with a crew of five Iranians, and that it had found weapons onboard the ship. The UN expert panel report repeated the official story that authorities had confiscated the weapons and that the First Instance Court of Sana'a had convicted the crew of the Mahan 1 of smuggling arms from Iran to Yemen.
But diplomatic cables from the US Embassy in Yemen released by WikiLeaks in 2010 reveal that, although the ship and crew were indeed Iranian, the story of the arms onboard the ship had been concocted by the government. On October 27, 2009, the US Embassy sent a cable to the State Department noting that the Embassy of Yemen in Washington had issued a press statement announcing the seizure of a "foreign vessel carrying a quantity of arms and other goods...." But another cable dated November 11, 2009, reported that the government had "failed to substantiate its extravagant public claims that an Iranian ship seized off its coast on October 25 was carrying military trainers, weapons and explosives destined for the Houthis."
...
A follow-up Embassy cable five days later reported that the government had already begun to revise its story in light of the US knowledge that no arms had been found on board. "The ship was apparently empty when it was seized," according to the cable. "However, echoing a claim by Yemen Ambassador al-Hajj, FM [Foreign Minister] Qaairbi told Pol Chief [chief of the US Embassy's political section] on 11/15 the fact that the ship was empty indicated the arms had already been delivered."
...
Unlike the government's story of the Mahan 1 and its phantom weapons, the official claim that a ship called the Jihan 1, seized on January 23, 2013, had arms onboard was true. But the totality of the evidence shows that the story of an Iranian arms shipment to the Houthis was false.
The ship was stopped in Yemeni waters by a joint patrol of the Yemeni Coast Guard and the US Navy, and an inspection found a cache of weapons and ammunition. The cargo including man-portable surface-to-air missiles, 122-millimeter rockets, rocket-propelled grenade launchers, C-4 plastic explosive blocks and equipment for improvised explosive devices.
Some weeks later, the UN expert panel inspected the weaponry said to have been found on board the Jihan 1 and found labels stuck on ammunition boxes with the legend "Ministry of Sepah" - the former name of the Iranian military logistics ministry. The panel report said the panel had determined that "all available information placed the Islamic Republic of Iran at the centre of the Jihan operation."
But except for those labels, which could have been affixed to the boxes after the government had taken possession of the arms, nothing about the ship or the weapons actually pointed to Iran. All of the crew and the businessmen said to have arranged the shipment were Yemenis, according to the report. And the expert panel cited no evidence that the ship was Iranian or that the weapons were manufactured in Iran.
...
An overview of the small war by a SME, Helen Lackner (who has resided in country for many years) and the sub-title helps:Link:https://www.opendemocracy.net/arab-a...n-war-in-yemenQuote:
Those deciding for war in March 2015 gave little thought to Yemeni realities, military, logistic, topographic, social or political, human cost, or an exit strategy. But questions are being raised.
Following a Twitter alert a Western MSM (Reuters) report on the war inside Saudi Arabia and here is the relevant text (half of the report):Link:http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0VA36TQuote:
Mortars and rockets fired at Saudi Arabian towns and villages have killed 375 civilians, including 63 children, since the start of the Saudi-led military campaign in Yemen in late March, Riyadh said on Monday....the Houthi militia and army forces loyal to former president Ali Abdullah Saleh had fired more than 40,000 projectiles across the border since the war began. In a measure of how fierce the fighting on the frontier continues to be, nearly 130 mortars and 15 missiles were fired by the Houthis and Saleh's forces at Saudi border positions on Monday alone...
A curious twist to the scene:Link:http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-0...dmarsh/7141638Quote:
One of Australia's most decorated military soldiers, who is now serving as a senior advisor for the United Arab Emirates forces, is facing questions about his knowledge of civilian attacks in Yemen....The UAE Presidential Guard, the unit that General Hindmarsh is listed as commanding, is reported to be operating on the ground in Yemen.
A former UK diplomat, Noel Brehony, an Arabist and expert on the Yemen has a long review of the situation, almost a briefing document:https://www.opendemocracy.net/arab-a...1b7e-407365113
The sub-title:Quote:
The conflict will not lead to a clear victory: there will need to be some difficult compromises. Meanwhile, the destruction continues and al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and Islamic State terrorists are exploiting the situation.
A first-hand report from Aden:http://www.theguardian.com/cities/20...-qaida-jihadis
From the latest Soufan Group briefing on the Yemen, well actually Aden and these two events are of note:Link:http://soufangroup.com/tsg-intelbrie...haos-in-yemen/Quote:
On February 17, 2016, a suicide bomber from the so-called Islamic State struck an anti-Houthi coalition training camp in Aden, killing at least 13 Yemeni troops. The day before, on February 16, suspected gunmen from AQAP attacked a convoy carrying the governor and the security director of the Yemeni city of Aden. For both men, the attack marked the second assassination attempt since the beginning of the year........The Islamic State assassinated the governor of Aden in December 2015, and attempted to assassinate his replacement a month later. In late January, the group even targeted the residence of President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi.
I read such reports too, and then articles like this one by RUSI, trying to discuss potential RSAF role in Syria (quite vainly, then although providing quite a 'nice list' of RSAF-hardware, its author still missed some of most important pieces and capabilities in question), should it be deployed there.
Something is just not adding up here.
Firstly, while MSM is babbling a lot about 'AQAP in Aden this' and AQAP in Mukhalla that' - next to nobody reported not only an entire spate of anti-AQAP ops by this newly-established 'Yemen National Army' (a pro-Hadi force, recruited and paid for by KSA and UAE). Indeed, next to nobody reported the first major Saudi anti-AQAP operation.
Question is: why?
My standpoint is: 'credit (or critique) where credit (or critique) is due.
Therefore...
Since January, the AQAP launched a number of assassination attempts on various officials of Hadi's 'government' (I admit having a problem calling them that way; in essence, Hadi and his 'ministers' remain Saudi puppets) - primarily in Aden area. On 9 January, they killed a senior security official in the city; on 17 January they nearly killed another (that is: they killed four of his bodyguards, while the official in question survived the second attempt on his life) etc. Meanwhile, the AQAP consolidated its control of Zinjibar and established a number of checkpoints along the road from Aden to Abyan; sabotaged two pipelines connecting oil storage facilities to a refinery in Buraiqah (Aden); attacked a YNA checkpoint in Wadi Ser; and then took away all the heavy armament from a number of ex-YA bases they have overrun in this part of Yemen since March last year. By 5 February, even Daesh's Wilayat Hadramawt began publishing videos about wonderful life in Daesh-controlled parts of Yemen and similar PRBS...
USA, a party supposedly ah so very much concerned because - between others - it declared the AQAP for 'most dangerous single terrorist entity', reacted with a few of typical UCAV strikes: murderously precise but hopelessly ineffective. Yup, they assassinate 'three AQAP there' and 'four AQAP here', but otherwise US military is still not moving against the AQAP.
Things began to change on 19 January, when several USN warships imposed a de-facto blockade of the port of Mukhalla, AQAP's major stronghold in Yemen - and apparently a major source of income (then, at least according to Saudi reports, AQAP meanwhile became involved in very intensive - and lucrative - business of trafficking fuel, arms and supplies via Mukhalla to the Houthis in Sana'a).
Then, on 10 February, Saudi Marines - supported by RSGF Apaches and UAEAF Mirage 2000s - de-facto invaded Mukhalla and then heavily raided the local port, killing or arresting dozens of AQAP in the process. With them, the Saudis brought first units of the YNA and even some units of newly-established Yemeni police (first official police units present in this part of Yemen since nearly a year). ***See correction 23/3 on Post 18***
There are indications that a similar operation was meanwhile launched agaist the AQAP inside Aden too - and has already yielded first successes. Sure, Daesh suicide-bombed one of YNA's training camps there, three days ago. BUT, since that day (17 February) Saudi-led coalition is said to have flown about 50 highly effective air strikes on AQAP in Lahij and Abyan too.
Make no mistake: except some 'indication of movements in this direction' from Asharq al-Awsat (which is clearly 'in Saudi service'), I've found no beep in the MSM about any kind of Saudi-run anti-AQAP ops.
Somehow, I doubt this is so 'only' because most of that is pre-occuppied discussing US strikes on Libya or the situation in Syria. On the contrary: much of the MSM should have been bought by Saudis. So, why don't they do what they are supposed to do...?
From a previously unknown website, via Twitter, on the gains made in parts of the Yemen by AQAP and it's newly named local affiliates: https://elijahjm.wordpress.com/2016/...ing-new-names/
Elijah J Mangier is another major PR-tool of the Assadist regime in Syria - of similar 'quality' like 'al-Masdar News'.
His blog is at least 2, perhaps more years 'old', and sometimes posting Iranian PRBS about Yemen.
In the case of the 'article' you linked above, David, he's babbling about 'Saudi-led Op Decisive Storm helping al-Qaida'.
To make few things clear here: yes, this is one of results of the Op Decisive Storm, but was never intended. What happened is that the advance during that operation was so quick, that the total of about 40,000 involved Saudi, Emirati, Bahraini etc. troops de-facto created a 'power vacuum' behind them: because of total collapse of Yemeni Army and police, there was nobody left behind them to control the 'liberated' areas.
This is what the AQAP exploited in order to establish itself in control of a number of places, foremost in Mukalla area. As mentioned above, Saudis are already neck-deep in fighting them.
Anyway, crucial result of the Op Decisive Storm was to stop such 'blitz' operations. Instead, Saudis and their intergalactic allies decided to spend the next 6-8 months with building a new Yemeni National Army (YNA), and new police. That's why no other major operation was undertaken ever since, i.e. why this war appears to be 'stagnating/going nowhere' ever since September last year. That's also why there were so many reports about graduation of new YNA units etc., the last two months or so.
This period is meanwhile nearly over, the YNA has a strenght of about 20,000; there is a new police too.
Obviously, the AQAP wasn't sitting iddle either, and thus it's not as easy to kick them out of Mukalla now. On the contrary, they are active in Aden too, and there is hardly a day without report about another assassination of some of Hadi's officials.
Mangier's babbling about 'nervousnes reaching its peak' in regards of that video showing a Hezbollah/Lebanon advisor talking to a group of Houthis is nonsense.
Actually it is so that Saudi special forces run a minor op in Sa'ada Governorate, back in early February, and smashed one of Houthi HQs there, capturing loads of documentation in the process - including that video. The video in question - see here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2NmLhAzRj8o - is very important, because it's the first-ever 'firm' evidence for Hezbollah presence on Houthi side in Yemen (i.e. it began convincing 'even' such cynical and sarcastic thugs like me that Saudis might be right after all, especially if combined with a review of how many of Yemenis that originally sided with Houthis have meanwhile turned against them).
Means: that video is surely no reason for Saudis to get 'nervous'. Rather something that made them very happy. And that's a good indication for 'quality' of the rest of Mangier's 'literature'...
...and 'BTW': another indication that Saudi (and allied) reporting about what are they intending to do and/or doing in such places like Yemen remains diletantic - and this despite them bribing dozens and hundreds of media-platforms and journalists - is their complete failure to report about developments on the ground.
For example, almost completely ignored by the media is the fact that after days long air strikes, Saudi, Emirati and YNA troops have captured the Camp Arqoob - a major military base in southern outskirts of Sana'a - early the last week.
Since last weekend, they are battling Houthis and YA in Bani Faraj, which is an eastern suburb of Sana'a.
What is also unknown is that one of first reactions of YA troops inside the city (a concentration of about 15 different brigades) was for an entire brigade of the Presidential Guard (exact designation unknown yet, but apparently the T-80-equipped 3rd Armoured) - to defect to the Saudi-led side.
Although enjoying something like 10:1 quantitative advantage over Saudi/Emirati-led ground troops, all the Houthis/YA were able to do 'against' this was to fire a single SS-21 at Marib, on 3 March.
...all of which means that the 'Battle of Sana'a' is already in full swing, and very few people outside the Middle East know about this.
The YNA - apparently in cooperation with Saudi, Emirati, Bahraini and Sudanese troops - has broken the siege of Ta'iz, yesterday.
After losing the 'Base 35' (apparently the main base of the former 35th Armoured Brigade YA), Houthis and YA have retreated into north-eastern part of Ta'iz, and are still controlling the local airport plus parts of theuniversity. The latter is besieged though, with Houthis entrenched inside the Medical Faculty and in the Deanship Building, while the Engineering School and Main Building have already been secured.
Today, the YNA captured as-Saleh Parks and is advancing into the ad-Dhabab Valley.
Saudi-led intergalactic coalition heavily bombed all the roads connecting the city with Sana'a and other Houthi-controlled areas, effectively preventing any reinforcements from reaching the area.
Two days ago, Saudis & CO launched a major offensive on AQAP in Mansoura District of Aden. This was supported by at least 30 air strikes.
AQAP appears to have been completely destroyed there: the place is reported as 'secured' even by southern Yemeni separatists.
While returning from related operations, an UAEAF Mirage 2000 two-seater crashed into a mountain, killing a crew of two. Exact reasons remain unknown (as usually).
The loss of that UAEAF Mirage 2000 was not in vain: reports from Aden indicate that the Saudis and allies have completely destroyed the AQAP in Mansoura district, and this is now secure.
Indeed, and to make things 'better' I guess: Al-Qaeda militants battle each other in Zinjibar...
...but, on the other side... sigh... Airstrikes on Yemen market killed 41 civilians and wounded 75: senior health officialQuote:
...The clashes broke out in the southern city of Zinjibar late Sunday, leaving at least seven militants dead and another nine wounded, according to Yemeni officials. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to brief the media.
The rival factions are led by local commander known as Abu Anas al-Sanani and another known as Ossan Baliedy, the brother of Jalal Baliedy, the leader who was killed along with three others in a drone strike on Thursday.
The late Baliedy headed al-Qaeda in Abyan province, of which Zinjibar is the capital, and was known for brutality, including the beheading of 16 soldiers in August 2014. He was believed to be ideologically closer to ISIS, which is locked in a bitter rivalry with al-Qaeda and has a branch in Yemen.
...
Let me guess: Saudis are going to 'investigate and publish all results'...Quote:
...Saudi-led warplanes on Tuesday launched two airstrikes on a busy market in a northern Yemeni region controlled by Houthi rebels, killing and wounding dozens of people, witnesses and medics said.
The state-run news agency SABA, which is controlled by the Houthis, said at least 65 people were killed and 55 wounded.
But Dr. Ayman Mathkour, the director of the Haja health department, told Reuters that the airstrikes by the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen's Haja province killed 41 civilians and wounded 75 others.
Relatives gathered the bodies and transported the wounded to Abs hospital and Mustaba District Hospital in Haja city.
Three witnesses described a scene of carnage, with dozens wounded or killed, but had no precise figures.
The market in the city of Mastaba, in Haja province, serves tens of thousands of people and was struck during a busy time. Witnesses said there were no military targets nearby. A Saudi-led coalition has been battling the Houthis on behalf of the internationally recognized government for a year now.
Doctors Without Borders spokeswoman Malak Shaher told The Associated Press that at least 40 of the wounded were transferred to a nearby hospital, three of whom were in critical condition.
The Houthis' TV network al-Masirah showed graphic footage of dead children and charred bodies next to sacks of flour and twisted metal. Witnesses said houses, shops and restaurants were also damaged, while cars caught on fire.
"The scene was terrifying," Showei Hamoud told The Associated Press by phone from Mastaba. "Blood and body parts everywhere." Many of the dead are children who work stalls or carry goods in return for tips, he said.
"People collected the torn limbs in bags and blankets," he said, adding that he could count up to 40 motionless bodies.
A second witness, Mazahem Khedr, said "dozens were killed" and that he saw wounded people screaming for help. Mohammed Mustafa said people were afraid to help the wounded, fearing a third airstrike.
Haja is northwest of the capital, Sanaa, which fell to the Houthis in September 2014.
...
Ever since that air strike on Mostaba in northern Hajjah Province from 15 March is 'news of the day' about Yemen in all of the Western MSM. Now, one of ironic things about this tragedy is that the Western media can't stop increasing the number of fatalities, from over 100, perhaps as many as 119 - of whom up to 22 should have been children.
As usually, Saudis are reacting in idiotic fashion: Saudis say it might not be them... enough said...
However, some of local sources - or at least Western MSM citing local sources - are indicating that this strike actually did target Houthis or YA/Salleh forces - but went wrong (with undeniably tragic consequences): Saudi-led Yemen market strike killed 33 rebels: tribal chief. Interestingly, such sources are usually citing much lower casualty figures too:
Quote:
A Yemeni tribal chief said Wednesday that 33 of the 41 people killed in a Saudi-led air strike on a market in a northern province were rebel fighters, not civilians as first reported.
Medics and tribal sources said that the Tuesday strike in the rebel-held Hajja province killed 41 people and wounded 35.
A health official in Hajja said the dead were civilians.
But on Wednesday a tribal chief close to Yemen's Iran-backed Huthi rebels said that 33 of those were "fighters".
"The fighters were riding in three vehicles at a military camp that was hit by three air raids," the chief told AFP on condition of anonymity.
He added that Saudi-led warplanes then hit the market when the Huthis arrived there.
An official at a hospital run by Doctors Without Borders (MSF) said on Tuesday the facility had received the bodies of 41 people killed in the raids.
But the charity disputed the claim on Wednesday.
"MSF's hospital in the region received 44 people wounded in the incident, two of whom died," the group's Yemen project coordinator Juan Prieto said.
The rebel-run sabanews.net website said on Tuesday that the coalition carried out two raids targeting the market and a restaurant in the area and gave a toll of 65 civilians dead and 55 wounded.
....
Meanwhile, in reaction to international uproar over that strike on market in Mostaba Saudis have announced a draw-down of their air strikes in Yemen. What do they mean with a 'drawdown' is unclear though, then air strikes continue: on 17 March, Saudi-led coalition bombed al-Hafa military base outside Sana'a (closest air strikes to Sana'a since 10 March), while Saudi and/or Emirati AH-64s destroyed an entire AQAP convoy underway between Aden and Zinjibar. Last night (i.e. this morning) they flew seven air strikes against targets in Sana'a area.
In Ta'iz... After shelling Ta'iz for nearly a full day yesterday (and killing at least six civilians), Houthis and YA have launched a counteroffensive there. It seems they are attempting to re-take the western side of the city.
Saudi-led coalition launched about a dozen of air strikes yesterday afternoon, and is continuing air strikes this morning. According to Saudi sources, air strikes are now largely guided by YNA FACs, but I have my doubts about this: although the YNA should now have two brigades in the city (the 22nd and an unknown one), there are still Saudi and Emirati FACs with them.
That said, no major Saudi, Emirati or 'allied' unit is involved in this battle: most of fighting is done by the YNA, local 'Popular Resistance Committees' - and the AQAP.
Ironically... there is an equivalent of some 4-5 brigades of the latter sitting in Aden and doing nothing. Reason: they are Southern Separatists that fought against Houthis when that city was besieged, and who insist to get paid for that, but refuse to continue fighting against Houthis in Ta'iz and similar places now. Instead, they are causing plenty of trouble for Hadi and his foreign allies.
Ah yes, and AQAP keeps on spreading. On 15 March they have captured Raydah in Hadramawt governorate, and clashed with YNA units near al-Anad AB.
Overall, I expect the AQAP to continue causing ever more problems. Namely, Saudis and allies are going to continue their withdrawal and hand over ever more of frontlines to the YNA: they're not only not curious to involve more of their ground forces, but now also under increasing international pressure. But, the YNA is still much too small but to bring all of 'liberated' Yemen under control...
Plenty of things happening in Yemen the last two days - all at once.
As first, Israel flew in 19 Yemeni Jews, ending immigration mission. Between others, one of Rabbis flown out took with him a 500-years old Torah scroll.
According to Israelis, with this, they have evacuated all the Jews from Yemen, bringing related airlift operations 'to conclusion'. That said, about 50 Yemeni Jews decided to stay (40 of them are living in a compound near the US embassy in Sana'a).
'Best' of all is: Yemeni social media is full of reports about this operation being run in cooperation between Israelis and Houthis, i.e. there being a secret deal. With other words, Houthis are now defamed as 'traitors' and 'Israeli agents':
**************Quote:
..."Not only did the agents of the Zionist occupation collaborate with Israel and the United States in the covert operation to airlift Yemenite Jews to Israel, they also allowed these Jews to steal our heritage," a Yemenite activist wrote on his Twitter page, referring to the ancient Torah scroll the Rabbi brought with him.
"After Houthis ignited war in different provinces in Yemen under the slogan "Death to Israel," the truth about them is revealed," read another popular remark regarding the ostensible "Israel-Houthi collaboration."
The official Twitter account of one of the well-known Yemenite daily newspapers, Yemen Now, went even further, claiming that "Houthis stipulated their collaboration with Israel on its support for them in international forums."
...
In Ta'iz area, the Houthis/YA have brought in the 11th Brigade, the last intact major unit of the YA left. This launched a counterattack on the YNA's positions at Jabal Han and Maqahwiyah, and overrun these, thus putting the city under siege again. Meanwhile, they should have captured the central prison too.
This is obviously a major setback for Hadi, who clearly failed to deploy reinforcements to Ta'iz: locals are complaining they feel 'abandoned by the government'. That said, plenty of such complaints are based on typical lack of patience: in essence, the locals expected everything would get better 'instantly' - which is impossible, of course. On the contrary, alone the situation with thousands of mines left behind by Houthis/YA is terrible: dozens of civilians were killed by these the last few days - foremost various merchants that rushed to Ta'iz in attempt to sell food to people there, but also at least two kids.
Of course, this is no good news for the Saudi-led coalition either: their heavy bombardment of the 11th Brigade as this advanced for Ta'iz appears to have been ineffective. Reasons are unknown, but possibly related to feint movement of several other YA units. Guess, without them deploying their ground troops to this area too, not much is going to change.
***************
I have to correct one of my earlier reports: namely, sometimes in late February I reported a Saudi attack on Mukhalla, a port in southern Yemen controlled by the AQAP. It turned out this was a 'mere' raid. That is: Saudi Marines landed east of this town, destroyed a major ammo depot there, and then withdrew. They also landed inside the port, destroyed several depots there (probably related to ammo), and then withdrew too.
Means: Mukhalla remains under AQAP control (i.e. their branch calling itself 'Sonst of Hadramawt').
Sorry for this: was my misunderstanding of related reports.
**Moderator has added correction pointer to Post 10**.
*****************
Talking about AQAP: the US flew a major air strike on AQAP training camp outside Mukhalla, and there are claims about dozens of KIA:
The Pentagon claims up to '200 KIA in two air strikes'.Quote:
...Tribal sources in the area told AFP that a series of airstrikes hit the camp and that wounded militants were taken to a hospital in Mukalla.
Witnesses there reported seeing around nine vehicles carrying casualties from the area.
Dozens of Al-Qaeda militants were meanwhile seen rushing to the hospital to donate blood, according to residents.
...
Finally a sane analysis of military aspects of this war - by Michael Knights from WINEP:
Gulf Coalition Operations in Yemen (Part 1): The Ground War
Gulf Coalition Operations in Yemen (Part 2): The Air War
Gulf Coalition Operations in Yemen (Part 3): Maritime and Aerial Blockade
Disclaimer: any relations to certain posters of this forum are fully intentional.
Plenty of news from Yemen today.
Firstly, it turns out the AQAP learned what to do with that strange stick of long, green, heavy tubes they've captured from the 190th Air Defense Brigade (Yemen Air Force) at Riyan AB (outsie Mukhalla), on 25 April 2015:
Yemen conflict: Al-Qaeda ‘used surface-to-air missile’ to bring down Emirati fighter jet
...and I was already wondering, how would Emiratis and Saudis know it was 'technical malfunction' - just minutes after that poor Mirage crashed.Quote:
...A French-made Mirage jet, flying in the air force of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), crashed into a mountain side just outside the southern port city of Aden on 14 March. Authorities claimed that the crash was “the result of a technical malfunction”, but sources dispute this, claiming that the jet was shot down with Russian munitions.
...
Two pilots flying the jet were killed in the crash and locals reported seeing Apache helicopters and the jet engaged in an attack on AQAP forces dug into a district to the west of Aden. Security sources have estimated that some 300 jihadist fighters were under attack at the time the jet came down.
A source in Yemen told The Independent that the surface-to-air missile was a Russian-manufactured SA-7 or “Strela”. The SA-7 is a shoulder held heat-seeking missile. It has a “kill zone” range of between 15 and 1,500 metres in altitude, suggesting that the Mirage was flying low in a strafing run on the AQAP positions when it was hit.
...
A second source, who has close links with the Saudi intelligence service, said that the missile which brought down the Emirati jet this month was acquired by AQAP in raids on military bases that have occurred over the past year.
“Al Qaeda has confiscated huge amounts of weapons from bases in Yemen,” he said. He cited two such bases, one at al-Aryan along the southern coast east of Aden and another at Ataq, the capital of the southern governorate of Shabwah.
...
Though, if they call every MANPAD-hit on their fighter-bombers a 'technical malfunction' (which, hand on heart, is the case: things that blow up when hitting combat aircraft tend to cause multiple technical malfunctions), then now we at least know what happened to that Moroccan F-16, and that Bahraini F-16, and those Saudi and Emirati AH-64s...
Ah, I'm drifting away... This is interesting too:
Yemeni forces make key gains in Jawf
Hm... Houthis running away without giving a battle? That's news...Quote:
...Yemen army forces and allied tribesmen in the northern province of Jawf said on Saturday they had taken complete control of the district of Al Metoun after Iran-backed Al Houthi militants pulled out of their positions.
“Al Houthis preferred to withdraw ahead of (the) arrival of a large (number of) troops on the edges of the district,” Abdullah Al Ashraf, a spokesperson for resistance militants in the province, told Gulf News on Saturday.
Unlike other front lines where government forces are struggling to break Al Houthis’ military lines, Yemeni forces have seized large swathes of land from the militants including the province’s capital, Hazem, since late last year.
...
Al Ashraf, who also returned to his house in the same city, said: “People came back home when Al Houthis left the city without fighting.”
...
After clearing militants out of Al Metoun and recently the district of Al Masloub, Al Ashraf said that only two districts are still under Al Houthis’ control in the province.
“If we manage to (take) control (of) these districts, we would be on the border with Saada.” Saada is an Al Houthi stronghold in the northwest of the country.
Military analysts say that the government forces are pushing their advance into the remaining regions in the province as to surround the militants in Saada.
In the province of Sana’a, Yemeni forces said on Friday they had seized some mountainous areas outside the capital after fierce fighting with Al Houthis and army units loyal to ousted president Ali Abdullah Saleh.
Abdullah Al Shandagi, Sana’a resistance spokesperson, said on Friday that the government forces pushed Al Houthis out of the mountain of Sulta and a small village called Al Houl.
...
A year after the beginning of the military operation against Al Houthis, government forces are now less than 30km from the Yemeni capital.
...
Local media reports recently said that Ali Mohsen Al Ahmar, the deputy chief commander of armed forces, met with the leaders of some of these tribes in the central province of Marib where they assured him their support to the advancing government forces in Sana’a province.
Even better news from battles against the AQAP. One of Hadi's officials is very happy to announce:
Well, Abyan was actually hit by a US UAV strikeQuote:
...“This morning, airstrikes targeted a stronghold of the terrorist group on the outskirts of Aden province, in Al Fyoush area," a source in Aden’s interior ministry told The National, without providing details of casualties.
“Raids also struck a crowd of terrorists in Abyan province’s Ja’ar district, close to a factory."
...
...while the Saudis (or their allies) then bombed Zinjibar too:Quote:
Air raids killed 14 men suspected of belonging to al Qaeda in southern Yemen on Sunday, medics and local residents said, in one of the largest U.S.-led assaults on the group since a civil war broke out a year ago.
...
Residents in southern Yemen said an aircraft bombed buildings used by al Qaeda in the southern coastal Abyan province and destroyed a government intelligence headquarters in the provincial capital Zinjibar that the militants had captured and were using as a base. Medics said six people were killed.
Earlier on Sunday a suspected U.S. drone attack killed eight militants gathered in courtyards in the villages of al-Hudhn and Naqeel al-Hayala in Abyan, residents told Reuters by phone.
...
Hm... interesting to hear there's still AQAP in Aden area: the last report cited something like 'all destroyed'. But then, nobody said that a massive improvement in combat effectiveness and -performance of several major Arab militaries must mean that the PR-skills of their governments experienced a similar improvement...Quote:
Saudi-led coalition warplanes carried out a series of raids in southern Yemen on Sunday targeting Al-Qaeda positions that killed five suspected militants, a Yemeni military official said.
...
The official, who requested anonymity, said the jihadists were killed in air strikes that targeted buildings in the city of Zinjibar, including an intelligence and special forces headquarters occupied by the militants.
Several people were also wounded and taken to a hospital in the nearby town of Jaar, the official said.
An abandoned army weapons factory in Jaar which the jihadists had taken over was also hit, the official added, but was unable to say if there were any casualties.
Other raids carried out by the Saudi-led coalition struck suspected Al-Qaeda positions in second city Aden at dawn, according to the same official.
...
Orla Guerin, BBC, has a short column, which ends with:Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-35901321Quote:
For most Yemenis there is no hope of escape, but more peace talks are planned for next month, to be accompanied by a ceasefire. Whatever the outcome, UN officials fear that one year of war has set the Arab world's poorest country back decades.
The Saudi-led coalition appears to have re-directed its air power and is now unleashing it against the AQAP in Yemen. Confirming my standpoint that the talking-heads in Riyad remain dilletants in regards of dealing with the media, this is almost completely ignored by the Western media, of course.
Anyway, last night it was turn on the AQAP in Mukalla again. Except for brief 'mention in disptaches' by Reuters, not a beep about this anywhere else.
Bombed are primarily the port of Mukalla, but also the main base of the former 2nd Military Region, in al-Mihdar. The compound in question used to include not only the HQ of that MR, but was also the main base of the former 190th Air Defense Brigade (overrun and disarmed by the AQAP on 25 April last year).
There are rumours that these air strikes have killed one of AQAP's top 'emirs', Qasim ar-Raymi, but there's no confirmation so far.
Surely enough, air strikes in question have caused the AQAP to call for public protests. When that didn't work, this morning they went to the local schools and kicked the kids out to the streets so these could 'protest against air strikes'.
After nearly two weeks of bitter fighting, the YNA has captured the Camp as-Safra'a, east/north-east of Sana'a.
This was a military base held by Houthis (since 2011) at a dominant position above the highway connecting al-Jawf and Ma'arib. Safra'a served as a staging point for Houthi offensive on Ma'arib, just for example: controlling it means that the YNA now has a staging point for an offensive on Sana'a or on Amran.
Mopping up of the AQAP out of Aden continues too. The YNA captured the central prison and secured all the major roads in the Mansoura district, the last three days.
Surprisingly enough, latest example of misguided Western attempts at 'informing the public' about what's up in Yemen was delivered by (usually reliable) France 24, few days ago.
Namely, after some search around, it turned out this is a near word-by-word translation of a report by al-Maseera TV, which is a Houthi-run TV channel.
What actually happened is that the YNA (Hadi-loyal 'new' Yemen National Army, recruited, trained, and paid for by Saudis and Emiratis) concluded its offensive in Midi area by kicking Houthis out of the south-eastern part of that town, and then re-opening the road connecting that town with Hardadh.
Contrary to Houthi reports about ambush and collossal 'government' losses, the Houthis - again - just run away. Local medical sources report exactly two YNA's WIA being delivered to the Samtah Hospital (facility taking care about all of YNA's casualties in that area) during this battle.
On 1 April, the YNA launched a pursuit of withdrawing opponents in direction of A'abs and Haradh.
A VICE investigation into the historical UK-US-Yemeni cooperation to combat terrorism; a mix of human sources, SOF, technical surveillance and drone strikes:https://news.vice.com/article/britai...-investigation
Four days ago, on 14 April 2016, Saudis and Houthis agreed a sort of a cease-fire, and this is holding.... well, in most of the country.
Reasons are nicely summarized here What the Yemen ceasefire means for the Gulf, the anti-ISIS campaign, and U.S. security
Emiratis instantly began pushing for a new offensive - though this time against the AQAP, and Washington seems to like this idea.Quote:
The fourth attempt in a year at a durable ceasefire and a political process in Yemen should get strong support from President Barack Obama when he visits Saudi Arabia later this month. The war has been a humanitarian catastrophe and a boon to al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). It's in our interest to end it.
The latest attempt at a ceasefire was arranged by direct negotiations between Saudi Arabia and the Zaydi Shiite Houthi rebels meeting in Riyadh with U.N. support. Political negotiations are scheduled to begin in Kuwait on April 18. If the truce fails, the Saudis are threatening their coalition will mount a major offensive to take Sanaa from the rebels.
A battle for Sanaa would make a bad situation even worse. The U.N. has said that 21 million Yemenis need immediate relief, of which seven million are "severely food insecure." The situation is particularly acute in Taiz where the Houthis have been besieging the city for months, as well as in Sa'ada (the Houthis’ home city in the north), which has been bombed repeatedly by the Royal Saudi Air Force.
...
The biggest beneficiary of the war has been AQAP, which now controls some six hundred kilometers of the southern coastline—from just outside Aden to Mukalla, the fifth largest city in Yemen and the capital of Hadramaut province. When AQAP seized the Mukalla at the start of the war, they looted $100 million from its banks. They are now earning at least $2 million and perhaps as much as $5 million a day in smuggling oil. The group is stronger today than ever before.
The Saudi coalition largely left AQAP alone until recently. The Royal Saudi Air Force has now mounted a few missions against it but they remain firmly in control of much of the south. AQAP regularly attacks coalition forces in Aden.
...
Otherwise, the Saudis and Emiratis keep on pounding the AQAP down the southern Yemeni coast: on 14 April, it was turn on Koud, in Abyan province, where 10 Jihadists were killed.Quote:
...The U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the UAE was preparing for a campaign against AQAP, but declined to offer details, citing operational security. The UAE is playing a key role in the Saudi-led coalition fighting Houthi rebels in Yemen that are loosely allied with Iran.
The White House and the Pentagon declined to comment. Government officials in the UAE did not respond to request for comment.
...
Michael Knights, an expert on Yemen's conflict at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said he and a colleague estimated the UAE's presence in Yemen peaked at about 5,500 troops in July-October of last year and now is as low as 2,500 personnel.
Knights said the UAE played a critical role in efforts by the Saudi-led alliance to push back the Houthis, employing a mix of capabilities, including mechanized infantry columns, that proved decisive.
"The UAE has been the real central player in the ground war," he said.
In contrast, Saudi-led air strikes drew sharp condemnation from the United Nation's top human rights official last month, who said the coalition may be responsible for "international crimes."
In a nod to its capabilities, some U.S. military officials have nicknamed UAE "Little Sparta" after the ancient city-state known for its fighting prowess. Analysts note that the small Gulf state has also played an outsized role in other conflicts, from Libya to Afghanistan.
Frederic Wehry, a Middle East expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a U.S. Air Force veteran, said the UAE's ability to combat AQAP would rest partly on its ability to navigate Yemen's complex web of tribal allegiances.
UAE forces currently are concentrated mostly around the southern port of Aden where the embattled Yemeni government has found safe haven. But since retaking the city in mid-2015, they and local forces have struggled to impose order, opening the way for al Qaeda and Islamic State militants to operate there.
AQAP is estimated to now control 600 km (373 miles) of Yemeni coastline and the southeastern port city of Mukalla, home to 500,000 people.
The fight against AQAP is of greater importance to the United States than the battle against the Houthis, which until now has been a higher priority for America's Gulf allies. The Gulf states see the fight against the Houthis through the lens of a regional rivalry with Shi'ite Iran.
One particular U.S. concern is Qassim al-Raymi, who last year succeeded Nasser al-Wuhayshi as AQAP's military commander after a U.S. drone strike killed Wuhayshi.
One U.S official, speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said al-Raymi "appears to us to have intent as well as operatives with capability to be able to do external plots."
The United States thinks there are dozens of AQAP operatives deemed to be "true threats" capable of mounting external attacks, the official added.
Washington also has long sought Ibrahim Hassan al-Asiri, considered the most formidable extremist bomb designer. He is accused of a creating hard-to-detect bombs, including one used in a failed bombing of a U.S.-bound airliner in 2009.
...
Two days later, and following extensive negotiations, Houthis conceded return of Yemeni government to capital
...which means something like: the entire Yemen War - lasting more than a year - was actually 'all for nothing'.Quote:
...Houthi militants have agreed to allow Yemen’s legitimate government back to operate in the Yemeni capital Sana’a.
They have also agreed to hand over heavy arms to the state, Al Houthi spokesman Mohammad Abdul Salam told Kuwait’s daily Al Rai on Friday.
The comments come ahead of Monday’s talks in Kuwait that bring Yemen’s rival parties back to the negotiating table.
Abdul Salam said the militant group would also allow Yemen’s current vice president Ali Mohsen Al Ahmar, and influential oil and telecom tycoon, Hamad Al Ahmar, back into Sana’a.
The promised concessions by Al Houthis herald a major shift in their policy, analysts say
...
“Our demand is consensual authority for a scheduled transitional period,” Abdul Salam said.
The transitional authority would decide on thorny issues like the number of regions for a new proposed federal state, disarmament of militant groups and secessionist demands in the south and grievances of Saada residents in the north.
In the interview, Abdul Salam denied widely held suspicions that the group was a pawn of Iran.
“We are not tools in the hands of anyone,” he said.
...
But at least Emiratis have got their opportunity to go kicking AQAP's backsides around Lahj Province
Quote:
Yemeni forces backed by Apache helicopters from a Saudi-led coalition wrested the city of Houta from al Qaeda fighters after a gun battle on Friday morning, a local military official said.
...
The recapture of Houta, regional capital of southern Lahj province which has been held by the militants since last summer, is one of the embattled Yemeni government's most important inroads yet against al Qaeda forces who have taken advantage of more than a year of war to seize territory.
Government troops began their attack at daybreak and succeeded after several hours of air strikes and heavy combat, the military official told Reuters.
"The campaign to control Houta has been completed and it has been cleansed of al Qaeda and extremist elements," he said. Several people were killed and injured on both sides and 48 militants were captured, he added.
...
Following a relatively quick build-up, Emiratis have launched an amphibious landing in Mukalla - and this time it's serious (and confirmed by locals).
Hadramawt Tribes Confederation is involved in this operation too (it's strictly anti-AQAP meanwhile - and not to be confused with the Hadhrami Domestic Council, which is in alliance with the AQAP in Mukalla).
So, in total: Emiratis are entering the port from the south, HTC (i.e. now HC, because they reformed themselves as the 'Hadramawt Confederation') from north, west and east.
More news as they stream in.
Emirati and YNA's offensive on Zinjibar is successful too: their troops are meanwhile inside the town, and holding most of governmental buildings. Major General Ahmad Sayef Al Yafae, commander of the Aden-based 4th Military Region, told Gulf News that as many as 35 Al Qaida fighters were killed and 60 others were injured in the first hours of the fighting and his forces had regained control of the city of Kawd and many other small scattered regions in the province.
Notable is that the YNA is supported by few of ex-YAF Mi-8/17s too (see the photo below). This comes as a confirmation for Emirati-supported effort to build-up a new air force (initially reported as equipped with those Emirati-assembled IOMAX light strikers).
Below the most accurate map of the situation in Yemen I was able to find recently.
Note: I modified it to show approx YNA's advance on Abbs and Hajjah, in NW Yemen, and YNA/Emirati advance on Zinjibar too.
Twitter reports on multiple air strikes on Mukhalla, air strikes on traffic management, and more (and bigger) air strikes.
This is something like official: Yemeni Troops, Backed by United Arab Emirates, Take City From Al Qaeda
Locals report the AQAP tried to give a fight, but then suffered heavy casualties to Emirati (probably Saudi too) fire-power, bow and fled the battlefield.Quote:
..."Groups of Al Qaeda fighters fled the city in cars. I think they escaped towards mountains far from Al Mukalla after about 20 Aqap fighters were killed," Salem told The National.
Local tribes are believed to have convinced the militants to leave, he said.
“We entered the city centre and were met by no resistance from Al Qaeda militants who withdrew west" towards the vast desert in Hadramawt and Shabwa provinces, a military officer told Agence France-Presse.
...
Bottom line: Mukhalla is now in Emirati and YNA's hands.
BTW, the amphibious assault on Mukhalla was actually led by RSN's SEALs, followed by Saudi Marines. But, these are not mentioned by anybody with even a single word.
If any foreign forces are cited, then 'Emiratis only'.
Twitter reports from Mukhalla area are indicating that the AQAP not only suffered severe losses there, but de-facto collapsed and run away.
Locals are reporting that the 'Army' (guess they mean the YNA) has entered Buwaish - the next town east of Mukhalla, this morning.
One correction in regards of my post with the map attached (see above), in regards of the situation in Hajjah province (NW Yemen, on Saudi border and the coast of the Red Sea): the YNA didn't drive all the way from Harad to Abs after all.
Namely, after capturing the upper part of Harad, the YNA stopped its advance on Abs and tried to outflank the Houth/YA positions in lower Harad by advancing down the coast. The YNA captured most of the farms in this area, and secured all the hills, in turn securing the road from Midi to Hara too.
But, now comes the best part: while mopping up the area west of Harad, YNA discovered a big system of tunnels. Reportedly, this is extending for nearly 30km and connecting the area around Harad with the Saudi border.
Now, no doubt: this sounds fantastic. But, keep in mind: Houthis are controlling this area since at least five years, without interruption. Plus, existence of such tunnels would in turn explain the ability of the Houthi/YA/Saleh forces to 'suddenly appear behind' Saudi outposts on the border, back in autumn last year (mind all the 'spectacular' videos of knocked out M1s, M2/3s etc.).
The capture of this tunnel system is also an explanation for why this offensive was launched (and the last-before-last cease-fire breached) and why the Houthis/YA are not launching any forays into Saudi Arabia, this year. Indeed, these tunnels might be an explanation why Houthis asked for negotiations almost immediately after the YNA secured the area (and tunnels).
Further - and quick - advance of the YNA and coalition today: locals report that they've liberated the town of ash-Shahar, 60km east from Mukhalla 'up' the coast.
The AQAP just run away.
If this is truth, it could be one of new records in history of mechanized warfare..
In their drive east of Mukhalla, Saudis, Emiratis and YNA have seized Riyan AB and the nearby base of the 23rd Brigade YA (de-funct, i.e. overrun, disarmed and disbanded by the AQAP) yesterday.
Further east, the AQAP VBIED an army convoy that was in the process of entering Zinjibar - yup, the place so eagerly besieged by Jihadists back in 2011, and lately produly held by them again, but recaptured by Emiratis, Saudis and YNA on Saturday (23 April). Then they quickly reached Azzan too, as the AQAP fled.
So much for professional military operations.
Allmighty superiors of the Saudi-led coalition in Riyad though, continued their PR-campaign in a particularly dilettantic fashion. Between others, Asiri claimed 800 AQAP killed in Mukhala area so far.
Of course, he's got all the MSM (even those of its outlets bought by Saudis) - but also various think-tanks etc. jumping all over him now: how dare Asiri becoming so desperate to issue such claims in attempt to improve the negative image of the Saudi-led coalition?
The 'pearl' of the day was delivered by this Houthi journo (rather surprising to see Houthis have left any journalist within their reach free to roam the world, actually): he said that Saudis are bad when they attack the AQAP.
After all, the areas that were liberated by the Saudi-led coalition the last few days are now 100% certainly going to be handed over to the Daesh (i.e. IS's Wilayat Hadramawt), while AQAP was lately so humanitarian, it 'shun vioence' and this offensive is 'pushing it back to brutality'...
Bottom line, if:
- Saudis & allies don't fight AQAP = 'bad Saudis, supporting and cooperating with the AQAP'
- Saudis & allies fight AQAP = 'bad Saudis, fighting AQAP that became ah so peaceful'...
Simply amazing how fast is everybody learning from Sputnik, RT and Putler... just Saudis not.
With AQAP on the run in south-eastern Yemen, it seems its leaders are easier to track too - and that's resulting in a notable up-tick of US UCAV strikes.
This one should've scored 'big points': U.S. drone strike kills local Qaeda leader in South Yemen
That said: Zinjibar is not 'AQAP-controlled' since at least two days.Quote:
A suspected U.S. drone strike killed a local leader in Al Qaeda and five of his aides in southern Yemen on Tuesday, residents said, as Yemeni and Emirati troops pressed their offensive against the militant group.
Abu Sameh al-Zinjibari and other men died when a missile struck their moving car in Amoudiya, a village near the Qaeda-controlled towns of Jaar and Zinjibar.
...
A 'quick and dirty' review of (important) news from Yemen, of the last few days:
Another 'turn-over' in this war might be in the making: Are Saudis prepared to drop Hadi to make peace in Yemen?
Al-Qaida withdrawing from 2 cities east of Yemen's Aden portQuote:
...Although the current talks in Kuwait began over two weeks ago, there has been little progress. They had started with a wobble: the Houthi/Saleh delegation arrived three days late in protest at the fact the ceasefire nominally in place was not being respected by the other side. From the outset of the negotiations, they had always wanted a complete ceasefire, not a mere "cessation of hostilities". Once their delegates arrived in Kuwait, they spent the first two days arguing precisely this point.
Kuwait’s foreign affairs minister, who was desperate to secure a home-soil diplomatic coup for his country, immediately travelled to Riyadh for talks with the Saudis and, in the days since, despite reports of coalition jets patrolling Yemeni airspace, there have been relatively few air strikes since; a positive outcome already.
For many, this apparent shift in Saudi policy shows the urgency of reaching a settlement on their part. However, whilst there are mounting indications Riyadh desperately wants out of this conflict, several foreign diplomats I’ve spoken to insist that the Saudis are not willing to seek an exit at any cost; many are still expecting, or hoping for, some sort of victory.
Despite that initial three-day delay in Kuwait, direct talks between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia had been under way for weeks, already a major breakthrough. So far, these discussions have produced several confidence-building measures, including prisoner exchanges, and a ceasefire at the border. They have also delivered a cessation of hostilities – both of Houthi cross-border attacks and coalition bombings in North Yemen – that has held since.
“Riyadh is where the talks are really happening,” a senior diplomat told me. What about President Hadi and his government? I asked. “At some point, they will have to accept that they have to go,” he replied. I was reminded of recent reports from Yemen suggesting many of Hadi’s ministers have been busy selling their properties and assets in the country. I wanted to tell him they had seemingly come to terms with their fate, and are merely buying time now.
...
But if the Houthis and the Saudis cut a deal, I asked the diplomat, what would happen to the forces on the ground fighting for Hadi, such as the militias in Taiz and Aden? “I think we have known for a while now that they aren’t under Hadi’s control, and they most certainly are not fighting for him,” he responded.
This was something I had considered, and written about, before but had always refused to believe. To hear it stated so bluntly by a senior diplomat was shocking. The notion that the dozens of armed militias currently operating across the country were under nobody’s control was too frightening to contemplate, and confirms fears that even if a peace deal is struck Yemen might not see peace for years, possibly decades to come.
...
The FNA reports several 'Saudi' air strikes on targets in Sana'a area, the last two days:Quote:
...Al-Qaida militants in Yemen are pulling out of two coastal cities east of the key southern port of Aden following tribal-led negotiations, security officials and witnesses said on Thursday.
The pullout from Zinjibar and Jaar is which is expected to take less than a week, they said. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to reporters while the witnesses did so out of safety concerns.
...
Meanwhile, Aden's civilian airport reopened on Thursday after months of closure due to security concerns, said Tarek Abdu Ali, the chief of the airport. The first passenger plane, coming from Jordan, landed around midday, he said.
...
The Yemen Post reported five air strikes already on 3 May, and clashes in four different regions - including Hajjah and Ta'iz. Especially the latter should be heavily shelled by Houthis and YA.Quote:
...The Saudi Air Force has launched several air raids over the capital city of Sana'a in the last two days, causing damage in a number of residential areas, several sources said on Thursday.
"In addition to bombing Sana'a, the Saudi Air Force also targeted the Ansarullah-controlled Anad Camp and a number of districts in Ma'rib province, killing a number of civilians and fighters," the sources added.
...
Finally, UAE-trained Yemenis land on Socotra island
With other words: the cease-fire in Yemen is about to collapse.Quote:
A contingent of Yemeni soldiers that has been trained in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has landed on Socotra (Suqutra) island in the Arabian Sea, Yemeni media channels reported on 2 May.
The reports were supported by photographs showing soldiers at a location that could be identified as Soctra Airport. They were wearing a type of tricolour desert uniform that has been used by the UAE armed forces in the past. A Boeing C-17 Globemaster III - a heavy transport aircraft used by the UAE's air force - could be seen in the background.
...
*************
Earlier reports cited arrival of a 'US Special Forces team' in Mukalla, and meanwhile the Yemen Post is reporting arrival of no less but '100 (US Army) Rangers in southern Yemen.
Also, the US military is getting more-intensively involved against the AQAP in general:
Quote:
... The U.S. military is helping Yemeni, Emirati and Arab Coalition forces that are battling al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, and were recently able to retake the port city of Mukalla from AQAP control.
A senior U.S. official said that American special operations forces are advising the Yemeni and Emirati forces in the region, and that they are working at the headquarters level and are not near the conflict. The official was not authorized to discuss the issue publicly so spoke on condition of anonymity.
Navy Capt. Jeff Davis, a Pentagon spokesman, said the U.S. is providing "limited support" to the Arab Coalition and Yemeni operations in and around Mukalla. He said that includes planning, airborne surveillance, intelligence gathering, medical support, refueling and maritime interdiction.
Davis declined to discuss whether or not special operations forces were in the country. But he said the U.S. has sent a number of ships to the region including the USS Boxer amphibious ready group and the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit, which is embarked with the group. The USS Gravely and USS Gonzalez, both Navy destroyers, are also in the area.
"Trained and supported by an Arab Coalition led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, Yemeni government forces and resistance fighters have retaken Mukalla and continue their offensive against AQAP in eastern Yemen," said Davis. "AQAP remains a significant security threat to the United States and to our regional partners and we welcome this effort to specifically remove AQAP from Mukalla and to degrade, disrupt and destroy AQAP in Yemen."
...
While Yemeni peace-talks were suspended (again), it's meanwhile 'official': US sends troops to Yemen, steps up anti-Al Qaeda strikes
Meanwhile, various other sources announce at least a 'moderate' - and certainly 'growing' US military presence in Yemen: US deploy over 200 soldiers in S Yemen, stations assault shipQuote:
The Pentagon acknowledged for the first time on Friday it has deployed US troops to Yemen since the country's collapse last year to bolster government and Arab coalition forces battling Al Qaeda.
Spokesman Navy Captain Jeff Davis said the US military has also stepped up air strikes against fighters with Yemen-based Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).
A "very small number" of American military personnel has been working from a "fixed location" with Yemeni and Arab coalition forces — especially the Emiratis — in recent weeks around Mukalla, a port city seized by AQAP a year ago, Davis said.
"This is of great interest to us. It does not serve our interests to have a terrorist organisation in charge of a port city, and so we are assisting in that," the spokesman added.
He said the troops were helping the Emiratis with "intelligence support", but declined to say if they are special operations forces.
...
The Pentagon announced it has carried out a string of strikes on Al Qaeda in recent weeks, outside of Mukalla.
“We have conducted four counterterrorism strikes against AQAP since April 23, killing 10 Al Qaeda operatives and injuring another,” Davis said.
...
Finally, only now, more than a year after the start of the Saudi-led military intervention, are serious points in the USA starting to criticise the entire adventure: Former U.S. Diplomats Decry the U.S.-Backed Saudi War in YemenQuote:
The United States military has deployed more than 200 US Marines in the port city of Mukalla in the central province of Hadramout, Yemeni media say, APA reports quoting Press TV.
The forces were deployed in the important seaport and oil terminal on Saturday, Yemen's Arabic-language al-Masirah news website reported. The amphibious assault ship USS Boxer with more than 1,200 sailors and Marines as well as a group of vessels aboard were also stationed offshore in the Gulf of Aden.
...
Of course, nobody is commenting about this operation probably being a 'bargain' between Oblala and Salman: 'go to Yemen, leave Syria to Iranians'. Connecting dots was never an accepted way of thinking in the DC.Quote:
...“I don’t think you can restore a government, especially an unpopular one, from the air, and I don’t think the use of force in this matter does anything but create long-term enmity,” said Chas Freeman, who served as the ambassador to Saudi Arabia between 1989 and 1992. He noted that former President Hadi’s unpopularity was partly due to his deep ties to Saudi Arabia and the United States. Freeman is currently a senior fellow at the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University.
Barbara Bodine, who served as ambassador to Yemen between 1997 and 2001, directed us to recent remarks she made on the Zogby Show about the impact of the bombings on Yemen’s social fabric.
“It’s just been pushed over the edge,” she told host James Zogby. “It’s been declared a level 3 humanitarian crisis, there’s only four of those in the world. … The devastation of the physical damage, infrastructure damage, … the water system to the extent it has existed has been completely destroyed.” Bodine is currently a professor of diplomacy at Georgetown University.
...
All of the diplomats pointed out that, contrary to administration statements that the Saudi war is serving counterterrorism objectives, the war has actually undermined U.S. national security interests. In particular, they noted that the campaign against the Houthis has allowed one of its enemies – al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) – to seize more territory.
Grappo220
“No question about that, no question whatsoever, that the war has turned everyone’s attention away from what concerns us most, and that’s violent extremism and terrorist groups,” said Gary Grappo, a former deputy chief of mission to Saudi Arabia. “Al Qaeda has grown in strength, and in numbers, and in resources, and that’s directly related to the turning of attention to the internal instability and ultimately the war in Yemen.” Grappo is currently CEO & founder of Equilibrium International Consulting.
...
“I would argue that the Houthis were not in the Iranian camp until they were driven into it by necessity,” Freeman said. “When they were attacked by the Saudis – or counter-attacked, depending on how you see it – they needed support from somewhere, and they got it from Tehran. So the Saudi effort to punish the Iranians [for the nuclear deal] by punishing the Houthis ironically cemented the relationship between Iran and the Houthis that otherwise probably would not have existed.”
Khoury also described the Houthi-Iranian relationship as having been advanced by the Saudi-led bombing campaign. “Once the Houthis got there, they thought … they are [also] against the Saudis so they must be good friends to Iran, so they started [cooperating],” he said.
Here we go again:
- Saudi-led intergalactic coalition re-launched its air strikes on Houthis. One of primary targets was the Umaliqah Military Camp in northern Amran (south of Sa'ada). Up to 60 were flown in the last 48 hours. al-Bawaba reports 13 KIA there, including 5 para-medics, and 15 WIA.
- Houthis responded by at least one SSM fired at Khamis Mushayt in Saudi Arabia, during the night form Sunday to Monday (8-9 May); Saudis claim to have shoot down the same.
By now, the Royal Saudi Air Defence Force must be the most experienced military service around the world - at least in deploying PAC-2s and PAC-3s for defence from Scuds and Tochkas.
To make things really sarcastic: Saudi intercepts missile from Yemen but truce holds
Sounds like both sides are rapidly learning - from Assadist and (especially) Russian behaviour.Quote:
Saudi Arabia intercepted a ballistic missile fired from Yemen on Monday, but a Saudi-led military coalition said it would maintain a shaky truce despite the "serious escalation" by the Houthi militia and its allies, state news agency SPA said.
...
Also of interest: Tip-offs helped accelerate Al Mukalla liberation
Hm... sounds like 'typical Arab-style warfare': short battle, then negotiate (or the other way around).Quote:
...Since government forces booted Al Qaida out of major port cities in the province of Hadramout on April 24, the governor of Hadramout, Major General Ahmad Bin Bourek, has come under the spotlight apparently for playing a role along with many generals in engineering the plan that pushed out Al Qaida at stunning speed. General Bin Bourek talked to Gulf News about the operation and post-Al Qaida Mukalla, the capital of Hadramout.
What is your general assessment of the situation in the recently liberated areas in Hadramout?
The situation is improving quickly. Today is better than yesterday and yesterday was better than the day before. We are working day and night to bring about security and stability in the city of Mukalla and other regions. The most important [achievement] is putting an end to theft and pillage gangs. The security situation in Mukalla would improve much more when we deploy policemen and army soldiers in their uniform at checkpoints in order for the people to see the features of a standing army that represents the state. Also, armed police officers in uniform would be deployed on streets and in police stations. We seek to present the liberated Mukalla’s culture and civilisation as a model.
You are talking about your efforts to bring peace and security to the city of Mukalla. How about other liberated cities like Ghayel Bawazer and Sheher?
We have sent army troops to the two cities to replace local resistance committees who took charge of security after liberation. We are determined to entrench the state’s symbolism in these two cities through the presence of the army and security services. The army sappers are removing mines planted by Al Qaida in Sheher, and along roads between these two cities and interior localities.
The liberated areas, especially Mukalla, are weirdly peaceful. Many people thought that Al Qaida would retaliate for defeat by mounting deadly suicide attacks. But nothing has happened since liberation. Why?
The forces that were designated to liberate Mukalla were professionally trained in raids and clashes. During our stay outside Yemen, we prepared our plan based on intelligent information from inside Mukalla. We knew their locations and numbers. [Shortly before the operation] we were informed that Al Qaida’s professional fighters had departed the city to Hajjar valley [in Hadramout], Shabwa, Abyan and Marib. The accurate air strikes and their inability to fight off our forces prompted them into exiting.
...
How about the UAE military’s support?
The Emirati brothers had played a vital role by providing air and logistical support that helped Hadrami forces during battles. They trained the elite forces for a year, paid their salaries, armed them and would continue helping us until we stand on our own feet and make sure that the Hadrami leaders would take Hadramout to safety.
Let’s talk about Mukalla liberation plan. How did you prepare it? Who helped you?
Before Al Qaida captured Mukalla in April 2015, we had intelligence that Al Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula was gathering in Hadramout and their leaders were flocking to training and recruiting camps. They were trained in making bombs. The militants were not only from Yemen but of many nationalities including Egyptian, Syrian, American, Australian, French, British and from GCC states. Some militants who plotted the blowing up of US airlines were trained in Hadramout. Our intelligence information showed that the armed men who attacked the French magazine Charlie Hebdo and some who plotted attacks in Belgium were trained in Hadramout and got their plans from here.
Practically, Hadramout has been classified as a central breeding ground for producing and financing terrorism worldwide. Their capture of Mukalla in April last year supported the overall impression about Al Qaida. So it was imperative to create a plan to purge Hadramout of them. But we lacked abilities and training.
So how did you set up this plan?
When Decisive Storm operation began, the coalition, mainly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, backed our plan. The first step was mobilising military forces from Hadramout as the people here would not welcome foreign forces. At the same time, we gathered information about them from our agents who penetrated them.
A month before the beginning of the liberation process, a group of people, who were misled by Al Qaida’s religious banners, contacted us and said they would part ways with Al Qaida if and only if we protected them. They tipped us off about Al Qaida car bombs and training camps. We managed to get rid of Al Qaida in 20 hours as the operation came within a series of military operations by the coalition in other provinces like Lahj, Abyan and Aden. The operations weakened them to a great extent and crippled their abilities for manoeuvring.
We succeeded because all walks of Hadrami society including tribes and Salafis regardless to their religious and political affiliations took part in liberation. We succeeded in record time because Al Qaida realised that no one would fight for or cover them. They found themselves exposed. A night before marching towards Mukalla, we landed some armed Salafis from the sea who controlled the seaport and airport.
Is it true that Al Qaida planted mines inside vital facilities in Mukalla?
They planted a huge number of mines because they felt that no one would stand by them. We are in need of help from brotherly and friendly countries to help us defuse them. They planted them inside police stations, government buildings, parks, the airport and Dhabah oil terminal. The UAE sappers would not be able to completely clear them before six months.
Some media reports say that militants retreated after mediation by local tribal and religious leaders. Can you confirm?
They pushed some forces into mediating with us. After realising that they cannot fight our forces, they demanded that they should be allowed to depart to one area. We refused, as per the directives from the president that there should not be any talks with the terrorists.
WINEP's Dr. Michael Knights goes on with a particularly interesting piece, discussing actual Saudi strategy against the AQAP: Gulf Coalition Targeting AQAP in Yemen
Centrepiece:
Curiously, the final chapter - 'Implications for US Policy' - falls rather short. It is not addressing the issue of negative repercussions for the US (and UK's) politics towards the KSA, allies and Yemen, in the light of what is de-facto a 'defeat' on the PR-plan.Quote:
... Preparations for the current anti-AQAP campaign began as early as April 2015 with the opening of quiet negotiations between the Gulf coalition and key tribes in southern and eastern Yemen. By February 2016, the coalition was engaged in a major military effort to clear AQAP from al-Mukalla and the Lahij-Abyan coastal corridor.
To facilitate the campaign, units from the United Arab Emirates have brought to bear many of the lessons learned during deployments in Somalia, Afghanistan, and Libya. In Aden, the coalition developed six 100-man units of local resistance fighters bolstered by UAE special forces, while Gulf intelligence agencies worked with locals to create an AQAP and Islamic State target list. In early March, coalition airstrikes hit AQAP's leadership in Burayqah and in northern neighborhoods such as Salahuddin, Sheikh Othman, and Mansoura; on March 14, a UAE Mirage 2000 jet crashed in Burayqah during a low pass over Aden, reportedly downed by an AQAP 9K32 Strela man-portable air-defense system (MANPADS). On March 20, 600 Yemeni personnel mounted in UAE-supplied Nimr tactical vehicles launched ground operations against AQAP. With support from UAE Apache helicopters, they cleared the Mansoura district and dislodged AQAP fighters from their stronghold in the Mansoura central prison, killing an estimated 120 of them.
To the east, the coalition undertook a similar project in al-Mukalla, but on a far greater scale. A year ago, it began patiently developing a 10,000-strong force to recapture the city, including around 4,500 Yemeni army troops of the 2nd MRC, around 1,500 tribal fighters from the Hadramawt Tribal Confederation (HTC), and around 4,000 anti-AQAP rebels from within al-Mukalla itself. As in Aden, these forces eventually helped the coalition create a granular target list of AQAP operating locations, which were then hit by airstrikes and naval gunfire beginning on April 18, 2016. On April 20, army troops of the 1st MRC supported by UAE Apaches recaptured the PetroMasila oil facilities 190 kilometers north of al-Mukalla. And on April 23, the coalition launched ground operations to recapture the city itself and its nearby port and military bases. In two days of heavy fighting, AQAP tried to block the 2nd MRC and HTC forces from sweeping south into al-Mukalla, employing defensive positions on the three approach roads about 50 kilometers north. These blocking positions were defeated, allowing relief forces to link up with the anti-AQAP resistance inside the city on April 25, while UAE marines made ancillary landings along the coast to the east. An estimated 450 AQAP fighters were killed in these operations.
The campaigns in al-Mukalla and Aden have been complemented by follow-on efforts to prevent AQAP re-infiltration. Pursuit operations have spread east of Aden and west of al-Mukalla to break the group's hold on coastal towns and roads, and internal resistance forces are being retained as local police, with salaries paid by the coalition for now. In addition, even before liberating certain neighborhoods, coalition forces covertly surveyed the essential services needed by local communities, enabling them to immediately distribute food from warehouses and dispatch reconstruction teams in AQAP's wake to replace or improve on services the group and its tribal allies were providing.
...
Namely, while it now turns out there was a carefully orchestrated strategy for launching an offensive against the AQAP, run already since April 2015, nothing was done to prevent creation of impression that 'Saudis are not the least keen to fight AQAP', which came into being in the last 15 months.
Even less so to explain cases (especially in such places like Ta'iz) where there is no doubt that US-supported actions by Saudi-led coalitions resulted in support of the local branch of the AQAP too.
My conclusion is that part of reason for this situation is that militaries like those of the Saudis, Emiratis etc. remain 'public shy'. Essentially, for them everything military-related is de-facto OPSEC. However, their brass should either know better, or at least learn that nowadays it's not enough to spend a few billions to buy critical or potentially critical media: one has to take care for the actual message to reach the public too. In the case of this war, there was clearly a failure in this regards.
Correspondingly, a missing lesson from this campaign is that while specific 'Arab' militaries came of their age and are 'finally functioning', their and PR-skills and -relations of their political masters remain a major problem, exactly like in the last 70+ years.
Thanks to a "lurker" for the pointer to this Canadian article, which aims to:Link:https://www.opencanada.org/features/...now-more-ever/Quote:
...despite the assumptions of many in the West, Yemen is not too small or too remote to matter. Here are five reasons why:
Ballistic missile launched from Yemen into Jizan - supposedly in respose to Saudi violation of cease-fire....
Don't worry, folks: the war in Yemen is going on regardless of continued negotiations in Kuwait. More about its 'Houthi/Saleh vs Hadi' part at some other opportunity.
Meanwhile, here an interesting read with rare info on Emirati 'COIN ops' in Yemen: The U.A.E. Approach to Counterinsurgency in Yemen
Most interesting excerpt:
Quote:
The Gulf coalition has noted AQAP’s focus on winning over the locals through well-publicized (but not necessarily widespread) jobs, social services, and financial inducements. This is one of the many areas in which the United Arab Emirates can draw on its operational experiences in Lebanon, Somalia, Kosovo, Libya, Sinai, and Afghanistan (where a U.A.E. task force operated for over twelve years). Since the summer of 2015, the Emiratis have been preparing the ground for civil-military operations in areas liberated from AQAP, most notably in Mukalla. According to my contacts, U.A.E. special operators and civilians have been used to covertly survey gaps in stocks of food and medicine in local warehouses and hospitals. This has allowed the coalition to immediately begin meeting local needs in terms of food security, medical and teaching support, and replacements for damaged infrastructure.
In Aden, this allowed the coalition to support the reopening of numerous schools in time for the autumn 2015 term, with school furniture and uniforms sourced locally from Yemeni manufacturers to maximize the local economic impact of aid provision. Civil-military operations teams quickly got to work on installing diesel generators and maintaining water pumps and sewage facilities. In Mukalla, the coalition prepositioned humanitarian support onshore and aboard the U.A.E. naval flotilla off the coast, and new supplies are now being flown in. Food, medicines and water purification materials were surged ashore. The Emirates also followed up the liberation of Mukalla by deploying military bridges into the city. If they follow patterns set in other conflict areas, road-building will likely follow, using local contractors. U.A.E. telecommunication companies may throw up new cellphone towers as they did in Afghanistan. The Gulf states will probably support development of local schools, clinics and mosques, and may also invest more broadly in boosting the local economy as a strategic investor, as the Emirates did in Khost province in Afghanistan.
...
Crowbat,
Thanks for the pointer to the WoTR article on UAE's COIN approach; which make very interesting reading. I note the importance of having historical "kith & kin" between southern Yemen and the UAE.
The article ends with an optimistic slant:So I note today in Foreign Policy's e-briefing this:Quote:
AQAP is used to being the smartest player around with the deepest local ties, but a partnership between the Gulf coalition, Yemen, and the United States could present Al-Qaeda and the emergent Islamic State in Yemen with a much tougher set of opponents.
One must wonder will the UAE have learnt enough to avoid the mistakes the USA and on a smaller scale others encountered in their Yemeni dealings.Quote:
American special operators are back in Yemen, and it doesn’t look like they’re going to leave any time soon. A group of about a dozen U.S. commandos sent to the country in April are going to stick around, U.S. defense officials say, and will help troops from the United Arab Emirates hunt down fighters from al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).
That sounds like a priority shift for Emirati troops, who have been fighting Houthi rebels for the past year. But Yousef al-Otaiba, the U.A.E.’s ambassador in Washington, told the Washington Post that said his country’s fight against AQAP “will go on for a long period of time...the military priorities have shifted from fighting the Iranian-backed Houthis to being more focused on AQAP".
IMHO, it's the other way around: there is meanwhile nothing the Emiratis can learn from Americans in this regards any more; only Americans can learn from Emiratis.
Namely, we do not get to hear much about this topic, but Emiratis were actually fighting a low-level COIN war against their own MBs since years, and have de-facto squashed these.
Ops in question included 'regular' (at least 'a few every night') helicopter patrols along their shores, a number of which resulted in discovery and - usually - sinking of boats smuggling militants, arms, etc.
So, they 'arrived in Yemen' already 'blooded', well-experienced, and well-connected.
And ever since... well, their ties to the local population are always going to be several magnitudes better than those of any US troops deployed there.
Last week London's Fontline Club held a meeting on the Yemen, as the war entered a second year; with Iona Craig (who still visits), a yemeni expat who works for Oxfam (one of the sharper UK charities), a regional HRW speaker and an independent UK reporter in the chair (who has reported from the Yemen):http://www.frontlineclub.com/crisis-...forgotten-war/
There is a 90 min podcast, which I expect includes the Q&A. Yet to be listened to.
http://www.thenational.ae/opinion/co...egional-crises
UAE shows the way to deal with regional crises
Hassan Hassan
July 3, 2016
BUT WAIT the Obama\Rhodes WH policy in fighting IS was what again????......not doing any "stupid ####".....Quote:
Since late 2013, two main regional blocs have competed over how to deal with the rise of extremist forces in Syria. The policy in Syria today seems to have finally settled in favour of one of the arguments.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE, on one hand, favoured a twin policy of fighting extremist factions at the same time as battling the regime of Bashar Al Assad. Turkey and Qatar, on the other hand, pushed for toppling Mr Al Assad first. They argued that it would be easier to build a local, regional and international consensus to fight extremists after the downfall of the regime. With varying success, the two sides competed to advance their visions on the ground in Syria and in policy circles outside it.
Around this time in 2013, Jabhat Al Nusra had already revealed its links to Al Qaeda after two years of acting as a local Syrian group with a jihadist bent. ISIL began to establish a foothold for itself in much of Syria, mostly focusing on policing rebel-held areas. Syrian Islamist groups then began discussions to form a unified front. By the end of the year, Islamist and jihadist forces became the main players in rebel-held Syria.
At the beginning of 2014, clashes erupted between the rebel forces and ISIL. This continued until the summer, when the latter took over #Mosul and returned to Syria with a vengeance – eventually controlling about half of the country.
Two summers later, it should be clear that the twin policy of fighting the regime and extremists would have a better chance of working. Today, the two superpowers involved in the Syrian conflict are getting closer to working together to defeat ISIL and Jabhat Al Nusra, after American president Barack Obama reportedly proposed a partnership with Moscow against the Al Qaeda affiliate. Turkey’s policy in Syria was also widely criticised after last Tuesday’s terror attacks inside Istanbul’s Ataturk airport, with many saying that the attacks were payback for neglecting the growing presence of extremists in Syria.
The lesson that must be drawn from how the situation developed in Syria is that the twin policy is more effective. But there is an inherent issue with counterterrorism efforts in the region, often because they have been largely led by the United States, or because operations show little regard for local sensitivities or aspirations. Shifting politics in Washington may also undermine ongoing efforts and therefore perpetuate or exacerbate the problem. So, the apparent solution is for regional countries to take on the task.
This is where the UAE comes in. On Tuesday, Reuters published a detailed account of the Emirati special forces’ counterterrorism mission in southern Yemen – an operation that turned out to be more extensive and impressive than initially made out in media. An Emirati eight-person special forces team landed in Yemen in April 2015 and began to train Yemeni soldiers. The UAE teams trained a 2,000-strong force that drove the Houthi rebels from Aden last July, and further 4,000 forces to run the newly captured city. The UAE special forces then began to prepare for the Mukalla operation which culminated with driving out Al Qaeda.
A US official told the agency that some in Washington had doubted the UAE’s sincerity in attacking Al Qaeda in the port city of Al Mukalla. But the Pentagon deployed a small number of military personnel to help in the fight after an evacuation in early 2015, according to Reuters, in a possible sign of increasing US willingness to re-engage on the ground.
“Whether there’s secession or not, the south is in the hands of its sons and that was made possible by the coalition countries," Mahmoud Al Salmi, a professor at Aden University, said.
What makes the UAE’s mission particularly significant is that the effort is conducted by local forces and led by a regional country with a long-term commitment to the neighbourhood’s stability. This aspect is critical for any counterterrorism effort. While locals who want to expel extremist forces from their areas often seek support from the US, long-term commitment weighs heavily in their calculation. This dynamic is felt in Iraq, Syria and other countries where extremists dominate.
Local tribes or insurgents would rather strike temporary alliances with extremists, even though they could defeat them with some help from the US, because they know the US commitment is often fickle but extremists always come back. That is a lesson many have learnt from the Iraq war, when the people of Anbar joined forces with the American troops to expel the predecessor of ISIL from their areas between 2005 and 2010. The US withdrew from Iraq and left them to deal with an increasingly sectarian government in Baghdad and a growing jihadist force in their midst.
Today, many seek US support but they also want a regional guarantor of long-term commitment. The UAE offers an example of what that commitment looks like.
At a recent conference @ Oxford University, hosted by Pembroke College, entitled 'The Lure of Jihad: Propaganda & the Construction of Jihadist Identities' amidst the presentations was one talk that fits here: Keeping the Lure Alive: The evolution of AQAP's Propaganda Strategy & What we can Learn from it' by Dr Elisabeth Kendall. Her research has taken to the eastern provinces, most recently in November 2015.
- Due to the Saudi-led blockade AQAP is making US$2m per day taxing imports, especially of fuel;
- There is no appetite in the eastern provinces for the Caliphate;
- Polling using locally recruited staff to conduct interviews found that 21% state an Iman's role is to advise on all matters; 10% want a 'single, strong leader' definitely not a distant man;
- Each family can have up to twenty children and child mortality is high and death is accepted. Alongside having more guns than books in each home - makes them a hardened audience and it is hard to terrorise people like that;
- The ability of AQAP to get local "buy in" depends on local, tribal factors and it is clear there is mutual toleration of each other as business is pursued;
- When shown an IS 2015 video, showing a local Yemeni IS group, it was widely ridiculed and caused bewilderment;
- AQAP have adapted their approach, it is now more nuanced, but there is a contradiction between business and war. No longer are the punishments and stoning seen in 2011-2012 used. They now aim to get popular support by proving they can govern and so help the people. Then they radicalise;
- AQAP does not portray graphic violence against non-Muslims;
- It is almost a "Robin Hood" method, fighting for justice and righting wrongs. The jihad today is a continuation of the fight against the British (who left in 1967) and AQAP have used stills of British soldiers being buried in Aden in that conflict;
- AQAP's tweets (I do wonder how many locals use Twitter) when examined are by issue: 57% development, 18% law, 13% celebrations & parties and 3% Sharia;
- There has been considerable population movement to the eastern provinces, notably Al-Mukalla, from the north following the damage caused by the war.
Dr Kendall has written widely, her last article readily found was in WaPo in May 2016:https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...a-be-defeated/