Small Wars and grand strategy
For those interested, two highly respected military thinkers Thomas P.M. Barnett and John Robb are engaged in a public debate on their blogs over Robb's Iraq op-ed in the NYT.
http://www.nytimes.com/glogin?URI=ht...Q2FV6ggQ3CYA.F
http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/weblo...s2/002471.html
http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/...ensource_.html
Start of a discussion between 4GW and PNM camps. I have a thread started on my blog for comments as well.
The insurgents strategy is chaos and anarchy
ALCON,
It is my believe that the growing trend in insurgent campaign (shor/mid-term objectives) strategies is to generate as much chaos and anarchy as possible. By creating an environment of "intractable conflict" insurgents are capable of strategically deterring intervention into "lawless areas." While the long-term objective remain control or dominant influence over people, territory & resources, the near term imperative requires insurgents to pre-empt foreign intervention by more powerful states.
In regards to ensuring friendly power acends to control of a new and emerging state, it is risky option. However, the one lesson that insurgent groups have learned is that they cannot compete with powerful organized states with overwhelming strategic (economic & military resource with superior information dissemination /control) capabilities.
If one looks at the various conflicts in South & SE Asia, they do not seem to make too much sense, particularly with respect to the radom patterns of violence. But when viewed in the context of destablizing societies, particularly in Indonesia, and exasperating ethnic, religious, social or economic tensions, there is some evidence fo insurgent intent to bring down the government rather than overthrow it.
Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan
Quote:
Originally Posted by NDD
Negative, the Brits did that. Yes, we helped, but it was mostly them. And that is what happens when you try to nationalize somebody elses hard work.
I don't think anything would have turned out much different if he had remained in power. The Islamists would have come for him eventually.
Eisenhower's biographer, Dean Acheson, and the CIA would all disagree, but yes, the momentum to get rid of Mossadeq came from the Brits. Kinzer's latest book clearly demonstrates the role of the US and CIA in Iran before turning our attention to toppling the regime in Guatemala.
To say that an Islamist Regime would have eventually come to power regardless of western interference in internal Iranian politics, and the brutality of the Shah and the Savak is an empty assertion.
We need to remember that the Iranians hold elections for president, unlike the Saudis or Pakistanis. They have a more democratic process that our allies in Jordan and Egypt.
"Next" Small Wars Already Happening
Gents,
Small wars as defined by the USMC are already taking place. Darfur , Sudan has seen US airlift transporting my old friends, the Rwandan Patriotic Army, as peacekeepers. The "small war" in the Congo has claimed more than 3 MILLION dead since 1997; periodic flare ups are routine. Zimbabwe is headed toward the abyss; look for bloodletting there in the near to mid term.
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict morphs and bubbles as it has since the mid-1930s. I fervently hope that we stay out of that one. Distance and balance are our only friends in that long struggle.
Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Syria are all candidates for a fiction writer's potential best seller on turmoil. Such fiction would hardly be a stretch.
I won't go into Iraq; the schisms before the war are there after the war. They will be there when we leave.
Those are my regions: Asia, South Asia, Latin America, Eurasia all have their flarepoints.
The commonality between small wars to me has always been they only surprise policy makers; the locals and others who know the regional issues can usually see them coming.
Best
Tom Odom
Mexico is already losing a small war
Recent reports from Nuevo Laredo and Aculpoco suggest that the Zeta narco terrorist and other drug gangs are fighting turf battles that the government is unable to respond to. In Nuevo Laredo the combat has been open at times and the latest surviving chief of police has made it clear that he does not intend to enforce the rule of law when it comes to the drug war. A report today, that you can check on my blog, indicates several murders in Aculpoco including high police officials. At this point the Zetas control more real estate in Mexico than al Qaeda controls in Iraq. These guys are also targeting law enforcement officals in the US. They are already a paramilitary force with training received back when they were in the Mexican army.
Recently the US and the State of Texas have beefed up law enforcment in the Laredo area, but I would not recomend going across the Rio Grande for adult beverages.
While I agree that Chavez is a potential adversary, I think any conflict with him would be more conventional. He has real assets he has to protect.
Overlapping conflicts in South/SE Asia
ALCON,
I have been having some difficulty following this threat, but I have yet to see anny comments about the small wars occurring in the arc of conflict from Bangladesh to the Phillipines.
If there is one place that small wars could lead to a larger conflict between China and the U.S. it is in this volatile reagion so vital to U.S. long term interests and security strategy.
France's Urban Insurgency ?
Any comment or analysis of the ongoing riots in France ?
I see ( at leastgiven MSM reports) an insurgent operation there remarkably like the intifada launched after Sharon visited the Temple Mount.
French citizens are now demanding the army be called out and are even raising the idea of militias to counteract the gangs of rioters/arsonists
Interesting to say the least - re: France
While not on our (U.S.) radar screen - i.e. U.S. intervention, the French Muslim riots may well be a harbinger of the future "internal small war" - at this time too much a political hot potato to even mention in official circles and mainstream media.
Unlike past small wars with an adversary confined to particular countries we are now facing a threat that has made inroads across the globe. Nothing new here – except that now many countries who felt insulated from being on the receiving-end of a 9-11-like attack or otherwise attacked by Islamist extremism now have to rethink their over-tolerant policies.
Simply being against the war in Iraq offers no safety-net and many western countries are waking up to the fact that simply being western is a “good enough” reason for being targeted. Go figure…
France's long term problems
Folks,
France's current problems stem from the end of its colonial empire, especially the loss of Algeria which Frenchmen of the day considered to be an extension of European France rather than a mere colony. France ruled its colonies by making the locals nominal French citizens, especially the upper classes. Britain in contrast used indirect rule as much as possible without the fiction of handing out British passports. The exception to that was in the loss of India when Britain did extend citizenship to "Indians" (Indians and Pakistanis) who wanted to leave.
In France's case and under French method, it became very easy to get that French passport if things were not going well in one's native country (colony). In graduate school at the Naval Postgraduate School in 1981, we had to read Franz Fanon's book, Wretched of the Earth[ viewed as something as a fundamental platform for anti-colonial wars. Fanon was one of those upper strata Algerians who was nominally French and who then found himself excluded from both "real" Algerians and "real" Frenchmen. His book is not an easy read because it is an emotional cry, not a logical discussion.
In my 15 years as a FAO, it was quite common to meet Africans who had one foot in Africa and one foot in France. The same is true in North Africa for Tunisians, Algerians, Moroccans, etc. As the decades have passed, the numbers of such quasi immigrants have steadily increased. They never truly integrate into France's social structure and France has allowed that to continue. Right wing politics in France have largely been driven by this alien body; in 1988 during the French elections for President, I was on OP duty with a number of French soldiers in Sinai. Discussions on the election were hot and heavy and the right wing candidate promised Draconian measures if he were elected. He was not. But the French senior officer on duty actually got on the UN radio network and put out a net call to all French observers bemoaning the defeat. Think about that one...
Since then French policy has been accomodation, wise in some ways and foolish in others. France has been sitting on a tinder box of discontent among the immigrants and among those who would support a large scale crackdown. The rise in tensions ampong the Muslim population and the GWOT seem to have acted as the necessary spark.
Other countries in Europe (and the US!) have similar issues. Belgium is an extension of the Congo, Rwanda, and other francophone Africa. Germany has long had a large Turk population. The US has its own illegal immigrant crisis.
The real challenge for France is going to be containing the current violence without pouring gasoline on the fire. I have read reports suggesting premeditated organization to the violence. Certainly that is possible if not absolutely probable. This has been brewing for some time. But I would also say that you should not underestimate the capacity for spontaneous violence in these populations. In Zaire, le pillage was an art form.
best
Tom
The Impending Collapse of Arab Civilization
Grand V sent this link along to a Sep. 2005 article in Proceedings - The Impending Collapse of Arab Civilization by Lieutenant Colonel James G. Lacey, U.S. Army Reserve. Excerpt follows:
"... A lot of the evidence that Huntington presents for his theory of civilizational war makes more sense when viewed through the prism of the collapse of Arab civilization. Global maneuvering that Huntington interprets as preparations for a new round of world conflict are in reality the spontaneous adjustments that other societies are making in reaction to the collapse of a neighboring civilization. By accepting that we are facing the collapse of Arab civilization we can, for the first time, create a grand strategic concept for success. We no longer have to engage in a war against terrorism, which is a method of fighting and not an enemy. Additionally, we now have a strategic explanation for what is going on that does not make Islam the culprit. Hence we do not have to fight a religious war to win."
"The grand strategic concept that provides the best chance of success is the one that served us so well in the Cold War—containment. No matter what else we do we must position ourselves to contain the effects of the complete collapse of Arab civilization. Already 10 percent of the French population is from Muslim North Africa. Europe's ability to assimilate a larger flood of economic refugees is questionable. And mass migration is just one effect a total collapse will have. Containment will mean adopting and maintaining difficult policy choices..."
More on LTC Lacey's "The Impending Collapse..."
That is an excellent article, an interesting viewpoint, and correctly challenges a few sacred cows that have been left un-BBQ'd for too long. However, I do find it exceptionally difficult to have it both ways, as it were -- a very convincing argument for containment (Tom Odom's points well taken, too) but with the ju-jitsu of "Reverse the tide when and where we can" thrown in for good moral measure at the end.
Benevolent interdiction? The political science and international relations theorists can have a good time slotting that one in to the continuum. I have some concern that it would undermine the strategy that is advocated.
Strategic doctrine: Integration?
A related op-ed in today's NYT by Richard Haass entitled "is there a Doctrine in the house?" is worth reading. http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/08/op...html?th&emc=th
Best
Tom
Terms & Definitions Disconnect
ALCON,
Does anyone agree that there is a distinct disconnect between how U.S. military doctrine defines war and how our advesaries define war?