Arab Spring comes late in Kuwait
Moderator's Note
I have merged a small thread 'Arab Spring comes late in Kuwait' and 'Impact of the Arab Spring on Saudi Arabia' into this newly created thread (ends).
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Dozens of Kuwaiti protesters stormed parliament late on Wednesday, as hundreds more demonstrated outside. Eyewitnesses said they were demanding that Prime Minister Sheikh Nasser al-Mohammad al-Sabah step down. Hundreds of people, including opposition lawmakers, have been protesting weekly outside parliament over alleged corruption.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-15768027
The BBC reports a previous demo over the PM earlier in 2011 and a no confidence vote being defeated.
Given the strategic role of Kuwait in providing facilities for the dwindling US presence in Iraq I am sure there's ample reason to watch.
Impact of the Arab Spring on Saudi Arabia
Opinion from a regional source... always good to have some non-US perspective:
http://www.zawya.com/story/In_a_rest...emailmarketing
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Saudi Arabia: In a restless realm
Saudi Arabia's absolute monarchy watched the demise of its close ally, President Hosni Mubarak, with alarm. The Al Sauds had sought to avoid this dramatic moment of change in the Arab world, even pleading with their American friends to save the Egyptian despot's regime.
Eighteen months on, however, the conservative rulers of the world's largest oil producer and the biggest Arab economy are learning to adapt...
My personal sense is that addressing discontent by distributing money will work, at least for a while. Saudi Arabia is not Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, or Syria: a quite large percentage of the population is materially comfortable enough to have a stake in the status quo, and the very strong fear of instability still trumps the widespread dislike for the regime. How long that lasts is anybody's guess.
Standing firm with "more of the same" or shaken?
The Saudi regime, or extended royal family must be aware of the impact of the Arab Spring, with once friendly, or allied governments being overthrown and replaced with something very different. What I have yet to see is any in-depth reporting on the impact upon the Saudi population.
We appear to assume the regime using both "soft" and "hard" power is capable of identifying its weaknesses and responding to them. From my very limited reading the regime's response is "more of the same". Whether that is still suitable is the key question.
What I would be looking for is increasing numbers of Saudis staying abroad after their studies, possibly volunteering to work in other post-Spring countries; more savings leaving and more "disappearances", even renditions back to Saudi Arabia.
For strategic reasons most Western nations prefer the Saudi regime and avert their eyes from looking more closely.
I am reminded of a conversation many years ago, possibly by a retired UK diplomat on the radio; he talked about two foreign policy nightmares for the UK: a bearded, junior Pakistani army officer appears on TV and announces a successful coup. Second, a raging bearded, fanatical Saudi face appears on TV to announce all the royal family are dead and the oil is turned off.
Quite fanciful I thought until a retired soldier responded that this shock had already happened once before - Gadafy's coup in Libya in 1968. At the time the UK had more troops in Libya than their army, apparently to defend the Libyan oilfields from Eygpt (plus RAF & USAF bases).
I assume national governments have thought through the possibilities and adjusted their calculations over policy.
A Gulf Sheikh down coming?
A new book 'After the Sheikhs: The Coming Collapse of the Gulf Monarchies' by Christopher Davidson, a UK-based academic, is published this week and FP has an article that opens with:
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At first glance the Gulf monarchies look stable, at least compared to the broader region. In reality, however, the political and economic structures that underpin these highly autocratic states are coming under increasing pressure, and broad swathes of citizens are making hitherto unimaginable challenges to the ruling elites.
Which ends with:
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Finally, and most importantly, the vicious crackdowns and arbitrary detentions that have been taking place as regimes have sought to silence these voices are tragic, but are nonetheless helping to dispel the illusion that these unelected, unaccountable rulers have anything in common with the tribal, benevolent rulers of the pre-oil era.
Link:http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/pos...cy_in_question
A shorter summary:http://www.amazon.co.uk/After-Sheikh.../dp/184904189X
If this was to come about, in one or more nations, the Arab Spring would take a very different form. SWC have discussed the Gulf states before, although in brief - except for Saudi Arabia.
There is a substantial thread on Bahrain's Unrest:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...t=12530&page=6
Inland: Jordan has protests
The other night several Tweets reported disorder in Amman, Jordan; OK a little way inland from the Gulf sheikdoms, but the same theme - uncertainty comes.
Protests about fuel prices being the catalyst.
Two BBC reports:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20321086 and http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20335287
The NYT, which has a number of protesters cited:http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/15/wo...econd-day.html
King Abdullah is due to visit London next week, for a speech giving; so one wonders will he leave home?
UK and Kuwait to announce security partnership
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The UK will provide expertise in physical security, cybersecurity and counter-terrorism to the oil-rich Gulf Arab state. It comes as Kuwait is experiencing a wave of anti-government protests....it would provide "state-of-the-art surveillance and command-and-control systems as used in the London Olympics".
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-20530427
Some may say this is a gamble, but since the UK's stance on Bahrain has been to speak quietly not unexpected.
A Gulf Sheikh down coming? Updated
A review of 'After the Sheikhs: The Coming Collapse of the Gulf Monarchies' by Christopher M Davidson, as per Post 15:http://www.guardian.co.uk/books/2012...iew?CMP=twt_gu
It also reviews a second book on Saudi Arabia 'The Islamic Utopia' (Pluto, £17.99), by Andrew Hammond and knowing some here watch KSA:
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...neatly decapitates the argument that the ultra-conservative kingdom (which, it bears repeating, is named after its ruling family) is undergoing a credible reform process. Since the 9/11 attacks, which upset their cosy relationship with the US, the Saudis have claimed to be leading the fight against jihadism and to be responding (cautiously) to demands for change at home.
Outside a few "gimmicky" liberal enclaves that are beyond the reach of the morality police, ordinary Saudis are encouraged to shop and pray, but not to think.
Will the rulers listen and learn?
A rare commentary on Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province, with a Shia majority, who can have an unhappy relationship with their rulers. Interesting to see some Sunni-Shia dialogue.
Link:http://carnegieendowment.org/sada/20...-promises/ffnh
Ends with:
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Finally, many in the province point approvingly to a sweeping investigation into the disturbances of the East published last year by the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies and leaked to an opposition website. Based on extensive interviews, the 125-page document is remarkable for its objectivity and detail in identifying the roots of dissent in the Eastern Province as an entrenched social, economic, and political problem—rather than as the usual explanations of criminality or Iranian-assisted subversion. “It is Saudi Arabia’s own Bassiouni Report,” noted one Shia activist in Safwa, referring to the Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry. Sadly though, the document may suffer a similar fate as its Bahraini counterpart; it seems unclear as to whether or not Saudi authorities have the power—or even the will—to act on its recommendations.
Bubbling along Saudi style
Small protests in Suadi Arabia, including in Riyadh; from a previously unknown source via a reputable hat tip:http://muftah.org/saudi-arabia-on-lo...exWNvk.twitter
A taster:
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The Saudi regime’s failure to deal in a just manner with calls for reforms and civil and human rights has exacerbated popular frustration, and increased challenges to the government’s legitimacy.
Kuwait's deepening political turmoil
An IISS Strategic Comment, which opens with:
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With a popularly elected parliament and relatively open political system, Kuwait is an exception among Gulf states. The resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Nasser al-Mohammed in November 2011 marked the first time in the region that public pressure had succeeded in ousting a head of government. However, after nearly 18 months of feuding and two dissolutions of parliament, there is no sign of an end to the power struggle between the government and opposition factions. As Gulf governments harden their positions in the face of domestic unrest following the 2011 Arab uprisings, the relative openness of Kuwaiti politics may be at risk.
(And ends)As the constitutional court's verdict nears, the government will have to decide whether appeasement or containment of opposition groups is the best way to harmonise and restore balance to Kuwait's political structure. A radical transformation may be unlikely, but a compromise between different political factions could temporarily bring the crisis to a halt. The challenge for Kuwait is to attain stable government and at the same time accommodate an increasingly ambitious opposition.
Link:http://www.iiss.org/publications/str...tical-turmoil/
There is a thread on The US-Kuwaiti strategic relationship, from 2007-2008:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=3924
Can Saudi Arabia survive?
Yesterday my wife and I watched the hour-long documentary by the BBC's security correspondent Frank Gardner, who had returned to Saudi Arabia, where he was shot by Al Qaeda in 2004, and his explanation how it has so far avoided an Arab Spring revolution. My wife would normally not watch such TV, but remarked it was very good.
Frank Gardner is a fluent Arabic speaker which helps, even if this was made with official "minders" it featured numerous critics.
Sometimes such BBC TV is not available beyond the UK, but assuming it is the link is:http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode..._Saudi_Arabia/
A Gulf Sheikdom after UAE94
Christopher Davidson, author of 'After the Sheikhs: The Coming Collapse of the Gulf Monarchies', spoke this week:
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... the "UAE 94" trial provides a useful example of how these monarchies deal with opposition.
Ah, what is the UAE 94? Very briefly:
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Last week, just a day before Morsi's ousting, verdicts were announced in the "UAE 94" case – a mass trial of Emirati activists which has been condemned by human rights organisations as fundamentally unfair. Of the 94 accused, 69 were given jail sentences of between seven and 15 years, while 25 others were acquitted. Many – but by no means all – of them are members of al-Islah, a local Islamic movement which the authorities have been eager to link to the Muslim Brotherhood.
Link:http://www.al-bab.com/blog/2013/july...opposition.htm
What do the Emirs & Kings need? Muscle - not their own
Logical and almost predictable for the Gulf sheikhdoms & KSA:
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The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has invited Jordan and Morocco to form a military alliance to resolve the bloc’s manpower issues....The most recent move, according to the Jordanian official, is seen as another step in solidifying the relationship between the only remaining monarchies in the Arab world.
Link:http://www.defensenews.com/article/2...Jordan-Morocco
Now whether the people accept fellow Arabs from elsewhere is a moot point. Who says mercenaries are history?