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Supply routes to Afghanistan
A few weeks ago I commented on the overland supply routes used by ISAF / NATO and USA via Pakistan, found just:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071114/...15GzQeG1Cs0NUE
The interesting part I quote:
Pentagon press secretary Geoff Morrell said the supply lines are "very real areas of concern" because about 75 percent of the supplies, including 40 percent of vehicle fuel supplies, either go through or over Pakistan.
"We hope it doesn't come to this," Morrell told reporters. "Right now we've seen no indications that any of our supply lines have been impacted."
davidbfpo
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Supply routes to Afghanistan
Interesting McClatchy story on Khyber Agency:
U.S. Afghan supply lines depend on Islamic militant - McClatchy, 25 April.
Quote:
The only thing standing between Pakistan's Taliban and the lifeline for U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan may be an Islamist warlord who controls the area near Pakistan's famed Khyber Pass.
In an interview with McClatchy, Mangal Bagh, who leads a group called Lashkar-i-Islam, voiced his disdain for America but said he's rebuffed an offer from the Taliban to join them.
Truckloads of food, equipment and fuel for NATO troops wind through the Khyber Pass daily to the bustling border at Torkham. Last month, Taliban fighters bombed fuel trucks waiting at Torkham to cross into Afghanistan, and last week, fighting between Bagh's men and a pocket of Taliban resistance closed the highway for several days.
Locals said that Bagh wouldn't allow Taliban fighters to cross into the Khyber agency, which is part of Pakistan's tribal belt and is now largely under his control ...
Bagh's stance has led to allegations that he has ties to Pakistani authorities or to the country's Inter-Services Intelligence agency.
One of the senior members of Lashkar-i-Islam, Mistry-Sahib, denied any connection with the Pakistan state.
"We don't want to fight the government (unlike the Taliban); it is our country," said Mistry. "We just want peace in our area. We have no connection with the government because their policies are not right."
Pakistani authorities appear to have withdrawn from Bara and much of Khyber agency, and they've taken no recent action to rein in Bagh ...
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Supply routes to Afghanistan
Following this BBC report: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/7769758.stm
I thought a thread on this subject appropriate.
The reliance upon the use of Karachi port and private hauliers (trucks) to take supplies into Afghanistan, mainly via the Khyber Pass, has appeared in other threads before. One citation was that 90% of all supplies came this way; I suspect some European NATO partners use another route, which I suspect is via Iran.
Reliance = vulnerabilituy and without Pakistani agreement I fail to see how our campaign in Afghanistan can continue.
I am aware that attacks have happened before and that the Pakistani authorities have twice recently temporarily closed the Khyber Pass.
SWJ reactions?
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Problem, no question -- and likley to
get worse before it gets better. The alternative route through Russia is unlikely to fill the void.
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My Dad (ret COL) pulled his final stint at MTMC (Now SDDC) in 2001-2002 when Afghanistan was kicking off. They tried railing some test shipments of supplies from the Black Sea across the former Soviet Union. They abandoned the idea after 50%+ pilferage of the containers enroute.
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Wow, makes the
ILA / ILWU look like pikers. Anything 0ver 25% is considered significant and reason to change.
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Get er done...
From the NATO website
Quote:
On Afghanistan, ministers expressed their common interest in the establishment of peace and stability in the country. They welcomed the arrangements agreed at the Bucharest Summit for the land transit through Russia of non-military supplies for the NATO-led force in Afghanistan and the NRC's decision to continue cooperating in providing counter-narcotics training to Afghan and Central Asian personnel.
From the Eurasia website
Quote:
Germany has became the first NATO nation to win Russian permission to use the country’s railways to transit military goods bound for Afghanistan.
NATO officials see the Russian-German transit deal as an encouraging sign.
It is the first major breakthrough in Russian-Western military relations since the Georgian conflict in August.
It is also the first time Russia has permitted a NATO ally to transit military supplies via an overland route.
But Russia has been careful to avoid giving the impression it is returning to business as usual with the Atlantic alliance, which indefinitely suspended cooperation in the NATO-Russia Council to protest Moscow’s actions in Georgia.
A statement posted on the website of the Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry on November 20 says Russia wants to deepen cooperation with the alliance on Afghanistan. But the statement only refers to bilateral transit agreements concluded with individual allies such as Germany, and does not mention a NATO-Russia land-transit accord signed on the margins of the NATO summit in Bucharest in April.
NATO officials play down the distinction.
From the WSJ Website
Quote:
Up to 75% of supplies for Western forces in landlocked Afghanistan pass through Pakistan after being unloaded from ships at the Arabian sea port of Karachi. NATO is already seeking an alternative route through Central Asia.
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Taliban storm two Peshawar trucking terminals, 160 NATO vehicles torched
Anyone else catch this?
Quote:
http://www.longwarjournal.org/images...l-12072008.jpg
The Taliban launched military assaults on two shipping terminals in the Pakistani city of Peshawar, destroying more than 160 NATO military vehicles and supplies destined for Afghanistan. Security in the northwestern city is deteriorating as the Taliban seeks to control the region and shut down NATO's logistical chain to Afghansitan.
The first attack took place at the Portward Logistic Terminal. An estimated 200 to 300 Taliban fighters fired rockets at the front gate, destroying the entrance and leveling the wall. The nine security guards on duty fled in the face of the massed Taliban attack.
Taliban fighters then fired rocket propelled grenades into the compound and proceeded to set fire to the NATO vehicles parked inside. "There were dozens of them. They started firing, they used rockets, causing a lot of damage," the manager of the shipping terminal told the Associated Press.
The Taliban force rampaged in the compound for more than forty minutes before Peshawar police responded. The Taliban force disengaged after clashing with the police, leaving the terminal in ruins. "They were shouting Allahu Akbar (God is Great) and Down With America," a security guard told Reuters.
The attack was devastating.
One security guard was killed and at least 106 NATO vehicles, including more than 70 Humvees, were destroyed. "In this incident 96 flat trucks and six containers were destroyed, including a 40-foot container," the terminal manager said. "Also armored jeeps, trucks and fire brigade vehicles."
A second attack took place at the Al Faisal Terminal. A large Taliban force stormed the terminal after overwhelming the security guards. Three Pakistanis, including the terminal watchman, were killed in the attack.
Sixty-two Humvees and other vehicles were reported destroyed in the attack.
(emphasis mine)
So 130 M1114's at over $1 mil apiece were destroyed?!?! Holy Sh*t.:eek::mad:
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Same one Davidfpo posted earlier
in the thread where you said your Dad mentioned the pilferage going through the Black sea, I think...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Ken White
in the thread where you said your Dad mentioned the pilferage going through the Black sea, I think...
I guess I'm on a doublepost roll today. Time for bed.
UPDATE: Looked back at that thread, I guess the picture on the Long War Journal jolted me awake - Davidbfpo's post didn't spark me to click the link.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Cavguy
I guess I'm on a doublepost roll today. Time for bed.
UPDATE: Looked back at that thread, I guess the picture on the Long War Journal jolted me awake - Davidbfpo's post didn't spark me to click the link.
Well Neil, since you're already on a roll...
Not much of a surprise going after our logistics. The Africans have been doing that for decades albeit not on the same scale.
'bout time we are permitted to level the playing field and take them on with the same tenacity and lack of respect.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Cavguy
So 130 M1114's at over $1 mil apiece were destroyed?!?! Holy Sh*t.:eek::mad:
The last time that I saw money burn up that quickly was when I visited the DFAC on LSA Anaconda. This is huge.
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#3
It's happend a THIRD time now.:eek: Pakastan apparently has little ability to secure it's internal routes now. And we've lost a BCT's worth of wheeled vehicles, plus god knows what in CONNEX's.
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archiv...stroy_50_n.php
Quote:
Taliban destroy 50 NATO supply trucks in third attack in Peshawar
By Bill Roggio
December 8, 2008 12:27 PM
Taliban raiders destroyed another NATO supply column at a shipping terminal in the insurgency-wracked Northwest Frontier Province. The latest attack has caused Pakistan to shut down the NATO supply route through Peshawar.
The Taliban launched an attack on the Bilal Terminal on Peshawar's Ring Road early Monday morning Pakistan time. More than 50 vehicles laden with supplies destined for NATO were destroyed after a Taliban force stormed the compound and burned the vehicles, a senior US intelligence source told The Long War Journal. The size of the Taliban unit is unknown.
Taliban fighters also fired rocket propelled grenades at NATO convoys passing through the area, however no vehicles were reported damaged.
The attack at the Bilal Terminal is the third such strike in two days. Early Sunday, the Taliban destroyed more than 160 NATO vehicles, including an estimated 60 to 70 Humvees, in two separate attacks on the Portward Logistic Terminal and the Al Faisal Terminal in Peshawar. An estimated 200 to 300 Taliban fighters stormed the Portward terminal, while the size of the attack force at the Al Faisal Terminal is unknown.
Pakistani security forces were not protecting the Bilal Terminal despite yesterday's attacks. The Pakistani government said NATO convoys would be accompanied and protected by Pakistani military units.
A US military spokeswoman described yesterday's attacks in Peshawar as "militarily insignificant." More than 70 percent of NATO supplies destined for Afghanistan move through Peshawar.
Today's attack has prompted the Pakistani government to close down the vital NATO supply route from Peshawar to Kabul, according to Press TV. This is the second time the Khyber Pass supply route has been closed since Nov. 11.
The Pakistani government shut down the vital Khyber Pass crossing two other times this year. The first time, the government closed the crossing to protest US airstrikes against Taliban and al Qaeda operatives sheltering in the tribal areas. The second time was in response to the poor security situation.
The Taliban have stepped up their attacks on NATO supply lines moving through Peshawar over the past several months. The Taliban are also stepping up pressure on the Peshawar. Police and government officials fear they have lost control of the security situation in the provincial capital.
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Looking objectively...
...this is just about a perfect series of ops. A tactical action that has operational and potentially strategic effect. The MSR is closed, as Cavguy mentioned, the numbers are significant, and we are left with few alternatives to couter the attacks.
If the actual purpose of these ops were to get us to increase our cross border attacks and undermine the Pak govt, I think those possibilities are good.
IMO, increased attacks will greatly benefit the ACM winter recruiting drive.
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Oh Pakistan
I really really want to be able to convince myself that these attacks were not coordinated at some level with the Pakistan government, yet somehow I can not. As means to take attention away from the Mumbai attacks and to shore up $$$ for Pak "anti-terrorist" endeavors, it seems almost perfect. No evidence what-so-ever, only Paks bizarre behavior up until this point. Realistically we have assume they did not have Pakistani support or we look as crazy as 9/11 conspiracy theorists. Bah, this whole region gives me headaches and I'm only a spectator.
Reed
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Merged the threads
I've merged the two threads and here is a link to some thoughts on the attack on Kings of War blogsite (although the relevance of the first photo escapes me).
davidbfpo
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The attacks: 1 Dec, 7 Dec & 8 Dec - the local view
Here are three reports giving the local viewpoint. If "500 hardened militants" can storm Peshawar (last report), the Pakis have a real governance problem there.
Quote:
Militants torch 150 NATO trucks in Pakistan, kill guard
December 7th, 2008 - 11:32 pm ICT by IANS -
Islamabad, Dec 7 (DPA) Some 300 heavily-armed rebels attacked two parking bays in north-western Pakistan full of vehicles used by US and NATO contractors for making deliveries to Afghanistan, killing a guard and torching dozens of trucks, the police said Sunday.The attack took place in the early hours at Al-Faisal International and Port World Logistics terminals on the outskirts of Peshawar city, where the trucks are parked at night. ....
....
The attack on the Al-Faisal and World Port terminals was the second this week. On Monday [1 Dec], rebels killed two drivers and destroyed at least a dozen lorries loaded with NATO supplies in a pre-dawn attack.
http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/...100128255.html
Quote:
Militants torch 50 NATO trucks in Pakistan (Lead)
December 8th, 2008 - 7:21 pm ICT by IANS -
Islamabad Dec 8 (IANS) Another 50 trucks carrying goods for US-led NATO forces in Afghanistan were torched by militants Monday morning, bringing to more than 200 the total number of vehicles in less than 48 hours.Officials confirmed that this was the second attack in less than 48 hours in which several military vehicles and other military supplies were gutted to ash. Though there is no claim by any militants groups, Pakistani security forces said that Taliban are apparently behind the attacks on the outskirts of Peshawar, the capital of the restive North West Frontier Province.
http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/...100128598.html
Quote:
Peshawar heading on Beiruts path
December 8th, 2008 - 1:49 pm ICT by ANI -
Peshawar, Dec.8 (ANI): Peshawar is once again in the news, but for all the wrong reasons.
Last week, a car blast rocked the historic Qisakhawani bazaar killing three people and injuring several others. Then, trucks carrying NATO supplies were set on fire by extremists December 7.
....
This was the second attack within a week on the terminal in Peshawar. On December 1, two persons were killed and over two dozen trucks were damaged when militants attacked the complex.
....
High profile kidnapping and murders have added to the fears of Peshawar residents. There are fears in Peshawar that over 500 hardened militants camping in Khyber Agency may storm it in the near future.
http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/...100128382.html
Sounds something like early Vietnam when the B-57s were mortared on their ramps - Bien Hoa Air Base, 1 Nov 1964 - pic and story here and here.
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Drivers stop work
After recent events the local Pakistani drivers stop work on delivering supplies to coalition in Afg: http://www.rttnews.com/Content/Gener...e=B1&Id=802229
IIRC the Pakistani haulage sector is dominated by Afghans.
Pause for thought; higher wages maybe?
davidbfpo
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Northern route partially reopened
..with more to come in "weeks, not months."
Quote:
Nato plans to open a new supply route to Afghanistan through Russia and Central Asia in the next eight weeks following a spate of attacks on its main lifeline through Pakistan this year, Nato and Russian sources have told The Times.
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, the former Soviet Central Asian states that lie between Russia and Afghanistan, have agreed in principle to the railway route and are working out the small print with Nato, the sources said.
“It'll be weeks rather than months,” said one Nato official. “Two months max.”
From the same article, a third route:
Quote:
However, Nato and the United States are simultaneously in talks on opening a third supply route through the secretive Central Asian state of Turkmenistan to prevent Russia from gaining a stranglehold on supplies to Afghanistan, the sources said. Non-lethal supplies, including fuel, would be shipped across the Black Sea to Georgia, driven to neighbouring Azerbaijan, shipped across the Caspian Sea to Turkmenistan and then driven to the Afghan border.
The week-long journey along this “central route” would be longer and more expensive than those through Pakistan or Russia and would leave supplies vulnerable to political volatility in the Caucasus and Turkmenistan.
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Quote:
.......shipped across the Black Sea to Georgia, driven to neighbouring Azerbaijan, shipped across the Caspian Sea to Turkmenistan and then driven to the Afghan border.
:eek:
I want to book a seat on that package. That this is a serious option is a measure of how bad the situation is with the Paki route. It's difficult to consider what would make up a more interesting route - unless it went through the North Caucasus.......
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Supplies blocked?
An interesting Australian article on the problems in Pakistani routes: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...0-2703,00.html
Note attack on the Quetta route.
davidbfpo
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Pakistan closes NATO supply route to fight militants
Pakistan closes NATO supply route to fight militants
PESHAWAR, Pakistan (AFP) — Pakistan on Tuesday cut off supplies to NATO and US forces in Afghanistan via the Khyber Pass as security forces launched a major operation against militants there, officials said.
The offensive comes after a series of spectacular raids by suspected Taliban militants on foreign military supply depots in northwest Pakistan earlier this month in which hundreds of NATO and US-led coalition vehicles were destroyed.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp...vtZXVnBB-UQAGw
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Khyber Pass closed temporarily
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U.S. to Widen Supply Routes in Afghan War
From yesterday's New York Times.
U.S. to Widen Supply Routes in Afghan War
WASHINGTON — The United States and NATO are planning to open and expand supply lines through Central Asia to deliver fuel, food and other goods to a military mission in Afghanistan that is expected to grow by tens of thousands of troops in the months ahead, according to American and alliance diplomats and military officials.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/31/wo..._r=1&ref=world
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Borsch anyone?
Not sure how much this will help since any goods coming from the US would have to transit through either Iran, Russia, or China to make use of this route. Even if we could make the arrangements to go through Russia the customs fees, transit taxes, or whatever we are calling them these days will cost a fortune. If World Wide or KBR purchase their foodstuffs from these countries we may be able to limit our need for the Pakistani route but I don't think we can eliminate it.
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Don't create a center of gravity
Even if the Pakistan route wasn't challenged, we should not create a vulnerable friendly center of gravity by only having one primary logistics route. I'm glad to see they're looking at and developing additional routes, but I doubt there is any plan to shut down current routes.
Maybe it has been written elsewhere, but it seems that the logistics effort to support a conflict in a land locked country like Afghanistan must be a tremendous effort not only at the logistics level, but at the diplomatic level. There are probably several unsong logistics heros that we need to recognize.
No one notices good logistical support, we only complain when the system isn't working.
Happy New Years to all you loggies out there.
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Updates on logistics
Over the past couple of weeks other sites have run news stories on interruptions to the Khyber Pass route and I've not posted them.
Here are a few:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...te-for-US.html
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp...Yymg4a7RByyHOg
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The Russian route .....
from the NY Times:
Quote:
U.S. Secures New Supply Routes to Afghanistan
By RICHARD A. OPPEL Jr.
Published: January 20, 2009
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — Faced with the risk that Taliban attacks could imperil the main supply route for NATO troops in Afghanistan, the United States military has obtained permission to move troop supplies through Russia and Central Asia, Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top American commander in the Middle East, said on Tuesday.
About three-quarters of NATO supplies are normally shipped into Afghanistan from western Pakistan, most of them through the Khyber Pass, an ancient trade and military gateway that lies just west of the Pakistani frontier hub of Peshawar.
....
“It is very important as we increase the effort in Afghanistan that we have multiple routes that go into the country,” General Petraeus told reporters in Islamabad, where he had met with the head of the Pakistani Army as well as the country’s president and prime minister. The general had previously visited Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan to discuss the issue.
“There have been agreements reached, and there are transit lines now and transit agreements for commercial goods and services in particular that include several countries in the Central Asian states and also Russia,” he said.
Russia is the principal source of fuel for the alliance’s needs in Afghanistan, and the Kremlin already allows the shipment of nonlethal supplies bound for Afghanistan to travel across Russian territory by ground.
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And more folks pull up to the poker table...
From Reuters; Afghanistan, India unveil strategic road
Quote:
By Jonathon Burch
KABUL, Jan 22 (Reuters) - Afghan President Hamid Karzai and India's foreign minister opened a new road on Thursday that will help link Afghanistan with a port in Iran and challenge Pakistani dominance of trade routes into the landlocked country.
The 220-km (135-mile) road in the southwest Afghan province of Nimroz is the centrepiece of a $1.1 billion Indian reconstruction effort in Afghanistan. It has drawn sniping from Pakistan, worried about its rival's growing influence there.
India, denied access through Pakistan, hopes to be able to deliver goods to Afghanistan through the Iranian port of Chahbahar, and this has triggered fears in Pakistan it is being encircled.
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RUS Clarifies It's Only NON-Military Stuff Allowed Thru
Russia not permit US, NATO military transit to Afghanistan
ITAR-TASS, 22 Jan 09
Article link - .pdf permalink
Quote:
Russia did not permit the United States and NATO to transit military supplies across the country to Afghanistan, Russian Military Representative to NATO General of the Army Alexei Maslov told Itar-Tass on Thursday.
“No official documents were submitted to Russia’s permanent mission in NATO certifying that Russia had authorized U.S. and NATO military supplies transit across the country,” he said in comments on some media reports about a statement which Commander of the U.S. Central Command General David Petraeus has recently made in Islamabad concerning alleged agreements with Russia and other countries bordering Russia on alternative transit routes for U.S. and NATO military supplies to Afghanistan.
Russia has concluded with NATO and two NATO states the agreements on transit of non-military supplies in Afghanistan.....
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To our English Cousin
As we are into 2009 your earlier post regarding use of the Port of Karachi causes me to offer some first hand experience observations.
I used to (1963-1965) run all movement of men, material, food stuffs, whatever, from Port of Karachi up to our former US Air Base at Peshawar (Badabar).
In those days there was one single rail line north, which went into Peshawar.
Back then supplies for the old US Embassy in Kabul was also part of my bailiwick. I shipped same via rail (you do use air on occasion but not for expendibles in a constant resupply pipeline that works as well and more cheaply via rail) stuff for Kabul to Peshawar.
At Peshawar supplies/foodstuffs headed to Kabul were off loaded onto hired local carrier trucks and taken via the Khyber Pass to Kabul.
I suspect the same routing as involves Port of Karachi to Afghanistan, primarily Kabul, is still used today, railroad from Karachi to Peshawar, thence by truck into Kabul.
However, with the completion of the Port of Gwatar near the border with Iran on the Arabian Sea, I would hope that at the least a railroad spur has been built up past the sprawling city of Karachi to join into the existing main/single rail line into Peshawar, and the shipment of supplies and food stuffs would proceed as just described from Karachi from Gwadar.
It would be revolutionary and great news IF the Chinese, who built and paid for the Port of Gwadar also have singly or jointly together with the Government of Pakistan built another railroad line north, but I doubt that was done, a mere educated guess on my part.
Airlifting of critical material, and of all personnel, is the name of the game in the past and likely today, as well.
With military personnel airlifted you do not even have to pass over or go through Pakistan at all, shipping personnel from Europe.
The new supply route(s), land, which Russia is newly providing and which I reasonably assume are at least in part already in use are/is good news and should help, as security via Russia will be much easier and better vs. through the troubles with terrorists inside Pakistan.
How is the weather in UK? My actualy English first cousin says you have had a real snow in late 2008 that slowed everyone down for a few days.
Cheers.
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Quick reply
George,
Been awhile since I was in Pakistan and I do recall the railway network was hardly effiecent. IIRC I did not see a single moving train in my travels around Punjab and NWFP.
I would be very surprised if any new railway lines have been laid, Pakistan had invested in moving freight by trucks - an industry dominated by Afghan drivers. That the Chinese would have built a line, I'll ask around. There is some irony if they had built a new line useful for Western forces.
Finally, yes snow has been forecast and so far minus temperatures overnight, a little snow so far.
davidbfpo
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Thanks for your inquiry to learn about RR line (new?)
Thanks for your resposne.
As I wrote, 46 to 44 years ago (1963-65) the single RR line north from Karachi was in heavy use and we used it every single week to move cargo north to Peshawar/US Air Base there.
Be interested if the Chinese have built a feeder or spur track line into existing RR; a totally new line to north; or nothing at all. I suspect a spur/connector RR line would make common sense, but only a guess.
In my antique day Lehland Motors in Pakistan was represented by Tim (Timothy) George, a tall redheaded, freckle faced Scottsman. We were good friends.
Have a good snow time,
George
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Pakistani militants cut off key NATO supply line to Afghanistan
Quote:
Pakistani militants cut off key NATO supply line to Afghanistan
The attack highlights the need for alternative routes.
By Liam Stack, CSM
Islamist militants in Pakistan blew up a bridge through the mountainous Khyber Pass early on Tuesday, severing a key supply route for US and NATO troops in Afghanistan. Periodic attacks on the route have pushed the international forces to seek alternative ones outside Pakistan.
All traffic on the bridge has come to a halt, The Press Trust of India reports, including dozens of supply trucks bound for US and NATO forces.
The bridge connects Peshawar, the largest city in the Northwest Frontier Province, with the Khyber Pass, the primary route into Afghanistan.
Militants have harassed NATO supply lines in northwest Pakistan for several months, conducting ambushes on convoys and attacking truck depots in Peshawar itself, according to the news service. It says Tuesday's bridge attack may be a result of increased security at supply depots.
v/r
Mike
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Blown bridge near Khyber Pass can be fixed pdq
The Tuesday, Feb. 3, 2009 blowing up of a/the supply route bridge to and from Afghanistan from Peshawar via the Khyber Pass is another move by the terrorists which again causes or forces Pakistan's hand to "defend" it's alleged tribal belt terrories, which for some time now are for all practical purposes areas in revolt and clearly not under the writ of law nor protection of the forces of Pakistan.
Terrorists are annoying the Pakistani Frontier Corp (FC) and the regular Pakisani Army, along with local police, etc.
A big problem is the fact that both the Taliban and also are a large part of the Pak military presence in these tribal areas are all ethnic Pukhtuns, some are even close kin. There is a real danger of Pak military forces in this area revolting against Pakistan, which is why I believe Govt. of Pakistan keeps "negotiating" instead of fighting and securing and permanently manning for security all these widespread tribal areas.
It is up to the Government and military of Pakistan to man permanently posts all along this supply route to stop this nonsense.
Failure to do so means Russian routes are "cheaper" now as any route that works is cheaper than 100% air lift which is what the on again, off again, on again Pak supply route is these days.
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NATO supplies starting to move again from Pakistan
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...militants.html
This article from yesteday's LONDON TELEGRAPH notes that already where a 100 foot iron bridge was blown yesterday that a diversion across a dried up stream bed is working to bypass the bridge, while the bridge is quickly being repaired.
Note there is another road route further south in Pakistan into Kandahar Provience in Afghanistan.
Negotiations are underway by some European NATO folks with Iran, very interesting.
And of course we/US have a plan being perfected now with Russia and the Stans to the north of Afghanistan.
The Taliban and al Qaida cannot stem the tide which by a year from now should find them "under water" or having capitulated (the Taliban).
Eventually, I envision a moderated Taliban turned loose to wipe out al Qaida. Interesting?
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Better routes
I won't rehearse my own articles on this, but several things.
First, we are empowering Russia, and she is only a temporary "friend," soon to be erstwhile friend (in fact, in my estimation, she remains an enemy posing as a friend). Russia wants the U.S. to go through Russia and only Russia for supplies, with leverage, therefore, concerning what we do with Georgia and then the Ukraine concerning possible NATO entry among other things.
A better route (again, I have posted extensively on this) is through the Caspian region, bypassing Russia completely. Somewhat more problematic, but nevertheless able to be done.
It's good that supplies are moving again, but note this that I linked in my most recent on logistics:
http://www.military.com/news/article...tml?ESRC=eb.nl
For the Taliban to succeed is easy. Bombs in the middle of the night and there goes the next bridge. And the next one, and then 100 more trucks carrying supplies to us in Afghanistan after an attack on depots causing fire.
I wish I could share your idyllic view of a moderated Taliban, but there are absolutely no signs of such a thing happening, nor does there appear to be any reason on the horizon to make such a thing happen without forces and COIN (and then it is still dubious).
Nor, I would point out, does there necessarily have to be a reason for this. Why must we co-opt them if they are 25,000 fighters out of millions and the population really doesn't want them around? This is not the same thing as the indigenous Sunni fighters in Anbar who were supported by the population.
As for this "moderated Taliban," I'll bet you a six pack of Shiner Bock that it won't happen. Are we on?
Best,
HPS
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Through Iran
It's the obvious choice.
Now you smart guys can work the details.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Old Eagle
Through Iran
I think our allies that are on more cordial terms with Iran may pursue this. I say this not to denigrate our allies, rather because it is the obvious choice and is not inconceivable. All countries involved would try to hide it the best they can.
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Via Iran?
A long time ago I referred to some West European nations using a route via Iran, which was mentioned during the diplomacy over Iran's nuclear weapons programme and UN sanctions - alas reference not retained. The article indicated use of the Iranian route influenced the stance taken by some West European nations. I would suggest France, Germany and Italy are possible users of this route. IIRC there is a railway line to an Iranian city near Herat and this can link back to Turkey, or maybe Gulf ports?
Using other routes via Russia etc are fine in principle, but have immense problems and will investment be needed?
This aspect of the campaign in Afghanistan will continue to appear.
davidbfpo
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Irianian RR history, it was built by the US Army WW II
David:
The late Army Transportation Corp Lt. Colonel George Lowrey, USA, Ret., Deceased, of WW II era Lt. Colonelcy (his family owned heavy industry business in Birmingham, Alabama, he was only in the Army during WW II) an older but very good friend of mine...built the Iranian railroad still in use in Iran.
The Iranian RR was built in reaction to:
- Removal of the prior Shah, who was pro-Nazi [the ex-Shah had started a process to "let" German forces come into northern Iran and a RR was needed by the allies pdq to move troops and material as a blocking reaction;
- USSR movement of troops into northern parts of Iran against understanding with the Allies [this was attempted during and especially toward the end of WW II by USSR, to move into and "take" w/puppet government Soviets attempted to set up in N. Iran;
- To create a better transporation route for escaping Jews from Europe (this was a backdoor escape route from Nazi extermination of Jews)
- And to move supplies up into and for Russia to use against the Nazis.
In the 1960s when I was a young USAF Lieutenant out of US Embassy in Karachi, I made numerous flying visits to coordinate matters in Tehran...and the WW II era built railroad was still the backbone of the then entire (not then very vast, not sure size/status of Iranian RR system today) Iranian RR line(s) as of the mid-1960s.
Background info of course.
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Russian Influence and our air base in Kyrgyzstan.
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php...show_article=1
It seems a squeeze from Russia is inevtible.
Appearantly the Kremlin has applied pressure against Kyrgyzstan for allowing us to base there. Kremlin states that US does not protect it's allies (Georgia) and Kyrgyzstan will remain Russias neighbor to the south. "The US will leave you be we are here to stay"
Russia prefers to be dealt with directly by the US in "Their sphere of Influence".
It goes without saying that shakey Logistics through Pakistan and the inability to airlift is a very uncomfortable position for our troops to be in.
Big work must be put into this right away. Logistics is the baseline which shall determine how Afghanistan works for us.
If you cannot supply the troops, they may not stay there.
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Another link in the chain
Yesterday's AP analysis is here.
Quote:
Analysis: Kyrgyz base a Kremlin test for Obama
Analysis: Kremlin testing Obama administration in dispute over key Central Asian base
DOUGLAS BIRCH
AP News
Feb 04, 2009 12:34 EST
The Kremlin's message to President Barack Obama is clear: if the U.S. wants Central Asian help in its war against the Taliban, it must deal first with Russia.
A $2 billion aid pledge from Russia appears to be behind Kyrgyzstan's announcement that it will close a U.S. air base that has played a key role in American military operations in Afghanistan......
It seems we lost the auction. :(
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Kinda confused on this one
Kyrgyz Republic looks to lose much more then they might gain from any such venture.
Just under 36% of GDP is agriculture, much of which they enable through trade with us. And just how much exactly do they expect to gain in growth from Russian purchasing power. Less people usually equals less need for food and other such amenities, not to mention if they continue along the path they currently seem to be on it's likely that Russia grows it's defense budget which would leave even less for external expenditures.
.
Quote:
Trade: Exports (2007)--$1.34 billion: cotton, wool, meat, tobacco, gold, mercury, uranium, hydropower, machinery, shoes. Partners--Russia 20.7%, Switzerland 19.9%, Kazakhstan 18.0%, Afghanistan 10.4%. Imports--$2.64 billion: oil and gas, machinery and equipment, foodstuffs. Partners--Russia 40.5%, China 14.7%, Kazakhstan 12.9%, Uzbekistan 5%
DOS
Seems like it would be a better bet counting on growth of trade with Afghanistan, Pakistan, China, India, and assorted other regionally located entities who just might be looking for trade opportunities over the next ten to 15 years.
I can just see it now. .........
(M) OK we'll forgive debt(which we never really expected to get paid anyway) and promise to build stuff and bring you into the fold, you just have to put a damper on those darn yanks expeditionary efforts. Or we could just shut of the spigit(which we're getting really good at lately:D ) and cut back on trade with you(which by the way we're gonna have to do anyway we just want you to think we're doin it because we want to, not have to)
And all this time all KR hears is HMMMMM blah blah blah you don't have to pay blah blah or it'll hurt.
What their thinking is wonder how much more I can get the US to pay for that $$$$$$$airfield$$$$$$
We live in one screwed up world:wry:
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Pakistani Forces Kill 52 Militants Near Vital Supply Route
Just saw this, looks like Pak military is helping out along supply routes:
Quote:
Pakistani Forces Kill 52 Militants Near Vital Supply Route
Associated Press
ISLAMABAD — Government helicopter gunships killed 52 Islamist militants Friday in two attacks in northwestern Pakistan, a lawless region where Al Qaeda and Taliban militants increasingly hold sway, a government official said.
They destroyed five militant hide-outs, a large ammunition depot and eight vehicles, he said.
Militants have stepped up attacks in the Khyber region in recent months, seeking to disrupt a vital supply line for Western forces in neighboring Afghanistan.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,489044,00.html
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Stop and Go in Kyrgyzstan
Late discovery, from the BBC on 6th Feb '09: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asi...ic/7873866.stm In summary: Kyrgyzstan says its decision to close a US base that serves as a vital supply route for US and Nato operations in Afghanistan is "final". Under the MOU the USA has six months to leave.
Nothing in ths region is either clear or simple.
davidbfpo
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MOU is still in effect re Kyrgyzstan US Air Base
David's recent post that under the MOU we have six months to vacate is correct.
Some of the recurring missions in and out of Kyrgyzstan are being flown by the 908th USAF Reserve Wing out of Maxwell AFB, Alabama. One of those pilots spoke to our Military Officers Association of America chapter monthly dinner meeting not too long ago, talk included excellent slides.
Pakistan desperately needs the revenue from use of movement of supplies and material through that nation. I like the posting of 50-odd militants killed by Pak attack choppers. We must see more of that, but what the Pakistani military hasn't been able to effectively do is put enmass divisions in place and keep them there instead of playing psychological games about India and other phoney threats.
Cheers.
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You know
Quote:
Originally Posted by
George L. Singleton
Pakistan desperately needs the revenue from use of movement of supplies and material through that nation. I like the posting of 50-odd militants killed by Pak attack choppers. We must see more of that, but what the Pakistani military hasn't been able to effectively do is put enmass divisions in place and keep them there instead of playing psychological games about India and other phoney threats.
Cheers.
While this is understandable and especially that last part, one would think that at some point PAK and Indian Governments need to develop at least some kind of mil/mil comms that would help cut down on the militants opportunities to capitalize on old resentments.
They don't have to like each other but at least if they are comfortable enough with the fact that their not gonna attack each other a lot of the problems might be nipped in the bud before they reach boiling point's.
As to the Kyrgyz does anyone know, if this happens do we have to keep providing the other aid we've been giving them. Seems like if they pick a side they should try living with it. ( This said of course completely Tongue in Cheek I personally have no idea as to the larger dynamic's there) but it does seem like a reasonable layman's question
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[QUOTE=Ron Humphrey;66187]While this is understandable and especially that last part, one would think that at some point PAK and Indian Governments need to develop at least some kind of mil/mil comms that would help cut down on the militants opportunities to capitalize on old resentments.
Ron, you are thinking logically about mil to mil between Pak and India. The ethnic, religious, and geopolitical hatreds there are deep at all levels, even flag ranks who have Western univeristy degrees, etc.
What is sheer insanity or stupidity or both to us is everyday routine hatred to them, always has been, and will be for a long time to come.
Both Pakistan and India still have many poor illiterate population who have to be kept focused on something or someone to hate to avoid thinking too much about their own lack of everything in their daily lives.
One vivid memory of Karach in my day was the dead and dying just lying by the thousands on sidewalks across that city of then 14 million, now I hear maybe 20 million population...people using those sidewalks just stepped over or walked around, no concern for the lower classes at all!
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New route?
Kazakhstan will now assist logistically: http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090209...20090209161206
Now I must get that atlas and check on where to invest my savings (not serious, just a late joke of mixed effect).
davidbfpo