America’s safer streets: why is elusive
Hat tip to a "lurker" for this article in The Economist, the full title is:
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America’s safer streets. The great crime decline continues. No one is sure why
Link:http://www.economist.com/node/21560870
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The truth is that no one predicted America’s great crime decline, and no one has a definitive explanation for it. Particularly confounding has been an acceleration in the drop since 2008; many observers thought a poorer country would be a less law-abiding one....an ageing society like the United States should expect to experience less violent crime. Immigration also matters, he says: studies have repeatedly shown that cities with large immigrant populations experience lower rates of violent crime......in states with a particular fondness for imprisoning citizens, such as California, the policy may have done more harm than good.
Some of the comments are interesting.
As Chicago had its own thread a while back:
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Most striking is an unexpected spike of gang-related violence in Chicago, where murders are up by 28% so far this year. Against a backdrop of a long-term decline in all crime in the city, as well as a 10% decline for the year, the sudden unrest has caused some alarm.
The previous Chicago thread (2008-2012):http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=5319
Crime Stats Are Tricky At Best
Toffler was right after all!
In general (I say this very cautiously) the recent crime decrease is because there are more unemployed males at home ready and willing to defend there homes and property and or give good descriptions that the Police can act on quickly. Criminals don't like defended targets and they don't like being identified. At the same time theft of copper from unguarded businesses has gone through the roof. Some crimes against persons (personal attacks) have gone up at least in my area.
Controversial Explanation
Adult Warning Label! this is considered controversial by many people but the research is supposedly top notch.
Link to University of Chicago explanation of the crime drop.
http://pricetheory.uchicago.edu/levi...alized2001.pdf
Prison Population Can Shrink When Police Crowd Streets
A catchy title from the NYT (thanks to a Twitter alert). Which opens with:
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Now that the United States has the world’s highest reported rate of incarceration, many criminologists are contemplating another strategy. What if America reverted to the penal policies of the 1980s? What if the prison population shrank drastically? What if money now spent guarding cellblocks was instead used for policing the streets?
In short, what would happen if the rest of the country followed New York City’s example?
Link:http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/26/ny...pagewanted=all
Lots of links to explore.
Personally I wonder if crime and the better criminals have realised street crime is just too dangerous and not so profitable - fraud & forgery for example are generally safer for the criminal. Secondly, by jailing fewer NYC has reduced the educational impact of being in jail.
Criminal justice reform: a revolution on the American right
A different way of looking at criminal justice and more in the USA, a left-leaning UK think tank has published a short paper to impact policies in the UK. It has some amazing statistics and quotes. This one is a stunner, even if the question "Are you on parole or probation?" features in some of our TV diet of US cops shows here:
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The overcriminalisation of America has exacted a stunning toll: when you add those who are on probation or parole to the total number of prisoners, one of every 32 adults is under government control. That is a startlingly large swathe of our population to place in the hands of the government.
Link:http://www.ippr.org/images/media/fil...2013_10616.pdf