KN Nuclear Test News Roundup
On Today's SWJ Daily News Links...
Click on the link above for:
North Korea
- U.S. Doubts N. Korean Test Was Nuclear - Washington Times
- Low Yield Of Blast Surprises Analysts - Washington Post
- Blast May Be Only a Partial Success, Experts Say - New York Times
- Even if Device Was Flawed, Test Crossed a Threshold - Los Angeles Times
- The Moment that Shook the World - London Times
- U.S. Proposes Stringent U.N. Sanctions Against N. Korea - Voice of America
- Pentagon Assesses Responses, Including Possible Blockade - New York Times
- U.S. Proposes Embargo, Sanctions on N. Korea - Washington Post
- World Condemns North Korea - Los Angeles Times
- Condemnation Swift, But Options Limited - USA Today
- World Powers Ponder Sanctions - London Daily Telegraph
- Bush Seeks Action from U.N., 6 Parties - Washington Times
- Bush Rebukes North Korea; U.S. Seeks New U.N. Sanctions - New York Times
- U.S., Japan Lead Push to Sanction Pyongyang - Washington Times
- Nuclear Test Sparks Global Condemnation - Voice of America
- U.N. Members Condemn N. Korea Over Test - Associated Press
- Bush Condemns N. Korean Nuclear Test - Voice of America
- S. Korea, Japan Condemn N. Korea - Voice of America
- Tough Talk From Seoul, if Little Will for a Fight - New York Times
- Rattled South Koreans Consider Test a Betrayal - Los Angeles Times
- China Condemns N. Korean Nuclear Test - Voice of America
- Angry China Is Likely to Toughen Its Stand on N. Korea - New York Times
- China Opposes Military Action - Associated Press
- China Rules Out War But Not Sanctions - Reuters
- Neighbors See Threat, 'Betrayal' in Nuclear Test - Washington Times
- North Korea Rocks Asia's Status Quo - Christian Science Monitor
- North Korea's Political, Economic Gamble - Washington Post
- A Look at Sanctions Against North Korea - Associated Press
- A Look at N. Korea Nuclear Capabilities - Associated Press
- Verifying Nuclear Test Blasts - Associated Press
- Weapons of the World's Nuclear Powers - Associated Press
- Text of North Korea's Nuke Announcement - Associated Press Transcript
- For U.S., a Strategic Jolt After N. Korea’s Test - New York Times Analysis
- Test 'Changes the Landscape' for U.S. Officials - Washington Post Analysis
- Next Step Depends on U.S. and China - Los Angeles Times Analysis
- Diverted Attention, Neglect Set the Stage - Los Angeles Times Analysis
- The Defiant One - Washington Times Editorial
- Responding to North Korea - Washington Post Editorial
- North Korea and the Bomb - New York Times Editorial
- Kim Jong Il's Challenge to China - Los Angeles Times Editorial
- Rebottling N. Korea's Nuclear Genie - Christian Science Monitor Editorial
- New Dawn of a Dangerous Age - The Australian Editorial
- Answering North Korea - Washington Post Editorial
- The North Korea Nuclear Puzzle - Los Angeles Times Editorial
- North Korea and the Dominoes - New York Times Editorial
- Raising the Stakes - Wall Street Journal Commentary
- Coming-Out Party - Washington Times Commentary
- In a Test, a Reason to Talk - Washington Post Commentary
- No More Negotiating With N. Korea - Los Angeles Times Commentary
- Talking With the Monsters - New York Times Commentary
- Is U.S. N. Korea Policy Working? - Real Clear Politics Commentary
- Now What? - Slate Commentary
- It’s the Nukes, Stupid - National Review Commentary
- Wanted: New Deterrent For a Tyrant - London Times Commentary
- Region in For a Shakeup - The Australian Commentary
- If Kim Jong Il Gets Nukes - Los Angeles Times Commentary
- Correct Response is Critical - The Australian Commentary
- Stalking the Hermit - Tech Central Station Commentary
- He Huffs and He Puffs - Weekly Standard Commentary
- 'Dear Leader' Feels Ignored - Real Clear Politics Commentary
- North Korea: War Is Coming To American Soil - Captain's Quarters Blog
- It's Always America's Fault - Belmont Club Blog
- North Korea Tests Nuclear Weapon - The Fourth Rail Blog
- North Korea Nuke Test Stirs Region - Threats Watch Blog
- "Collapse Brinkmanship" - The Adventures of Chester Blog
- Was N. Korea Testing a Suitcase Nuke? - Belmont Club Blog
- Fizzlemas In North Korea - Captain's Quarters Blog
- Stratfor: No "Satisfactory Military Solution" - Counterterrorism Blog
Rogue Nuclear States
- Mutually Assured Disruption - New York Times Commentary
Japan
- Japan Likely to Rally Behind PM’s Call for a Strong Military - NY Times
- Japan's PM Abe Gets Helping Hand From N. Korea - Reuters
Quote:
"U.S. intelligence agencies say, based on preliminary indications, that North Korea did not produce its first nuclear blast yesterday."
"U.S. officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that seismic readings show that the conventional high explosives used to create a chain reaction in a plutonium-based device went off, but that the blast's readings were shy of a typical nuclear detonation."
--Washington Times, U.S. Doubts N. Korean Test Was Nuclear
U.S. Speeds Attack Plans for North Korea
http://washingtontimes.com/national/...2702-4895r.htm (pop up warning)
Quote:
The Pentagon has stepped up planning for attacks against North Korea's nuclear program and is bolstering nuclear forces in Asia, said defense officials familiar with the highly secret process.
The officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the accelerated military planning includes detailed programs for striking a North Korean plutonium-reprocessing facility at Yongbyon with special operations commando raids or strikes with Tomahawk cruise missiles or other precision-guided weapons.
The effort, which had been under way for several months, was given new impetus by Pyongyang's underground nuclear test Oct. 9 and growing opposition to the nuclear program of Kim Jong-il's communist regime, especially by China and South Korea.
A Pentagon official said the Department of Defense is considering "various military options" to remove the program.
"Other than nuclear strikes, which are considered excessive, there are several options now in place. Planning has been accelerated," the official said.
A second, senior defense official privy to the effort said the Bush administration recently affirmed its commitment to both South Korea and Japan that it would use U.S. nuclear weapons to deter North Korea, now considered an unofficial nuclear weapon state.
"We will resort to whatever force levels we need to have, to defend the Republic of Korea. That nuclear deterrence is in place," said the senior official, who declined to reveal what nuclear forces are deployed in Asia.
Other officials said the forces include bombs and air-launched missiles stored at Guam, a U.S. island in the western Pacific, that could be delivered by B-52 or B-2 bombers. Nine U.S. nuclear-missile submarines regularly deploy to Asian waters from Washington state.
The officials said one military option calls for teams of Navy SEALs or other special operations commandos to conduct covert raids on Yongbyon's plutonium-reprocessing facility.
The commandos would blow up the facility to prevent further reprocessing of the spent fuel rods, which provides the material for developing nuclear weapons.
A second option calls for strikes by precision-guided Tomahawk missiles on the reprocessing plant from submarines or ships. The plan calls for simultaneous strikes from various sides to minimize any radioactive particles being carried away in the air.
Planners estimate that six Tomahawks could destroy the reprocessing plant and that it would take five to 10 years to rebuild.
North Korean Nuclear Issues
ICG, 13 Nov 06: North Korea's Nuclear Test: The Fallout
Quote:
...There are no good options for resolving this crisis, but the least bad option remains a negotiated settlement. To achieve this, the U.S. and others will need to present a long-term view of economic change in North Korea while offering what amounts to a guarantee not to overthrow the Pyongyang regime. The undertaking will involve a considerable investment of diplomatic energy and financial resources and should be matched by a ramped-up effort to ensure that North Korea cannot proliferate nuclear weapons or missiles. But it provides the only prospect for peaceful and gradual change on the Korean peninsula.
Sanctions without sustained, direct diplomacy would only mean escalation. The Bush administration has operated under the flawed assumption that direct negotiations with its foe are a concession, when this may be the only way of moving forward. With Washington, Tokyo, Seoul and Pyongyang all locked into policies which are likely to change little until new leaders emerge, however, Beijing’s is the government to watch...
N. Korea Shutters Nuclear Facility
15 July Washington Post - N. Korea Shutters Nuclear Facility by Edward Cody.
Quote:
After four years of off-and-on negotiations, North Korea said it began closing down its main nuclear reactor Saturday, shortly after receiving a first boatload of fuel oil aid.
The closure, if confirmed by U.N. inspectors, would mark the first concrete step in a carefully orchestrated denuclearization schedule that was agreed on in February, with the ultimate goal of dismantling North Korea's nuclear weapons program in exchange for fuel and other economic aid, and increased diplomatic recognition.
More broadly, it constituted the first on-the-ground accomplishment of six-nation negotiations that have been grinding away with little progress since 2003 under Chinese sponsorship. The talks -- including North and South Korea, Russia, Japan, the United States and China -- are likely to resume next week in Beijing to emphasize the parties' resolve to carry out the rest of the February agreement and eventually create a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula...
China Wheeling & Dealing With N. Korea
Here's the latest:
Quote:
China halts rail freight to N Korea
By Anna Fifield in Seoul and Richard McGregor in Beijing
Published: October 18 2007 23:06 | Last updated: October 18 2007 23:06
China suspended key rail freight services into North Korea last week after 1,800 wagons carrying food aid and tradeable goods crossed into Kim Jong-il’s hermit state but were never returned.
Absconding with Chinese wagons would be a strange move for North Korea because Beijing is Pyongyang’s closest political ally and biggest provider of food, goods and oil. Analysts monitoring North Korea said Chinese officials had privately complained to them that the North Koreans were dismantling Chinese wagons and selling them back as scrap metal.
The Chinese railway ministry suspended a number of rail freight services into North Korea on October 11, humanitarian agencies operating in North Korea told the Financial Times. The ministry told international aid agencies that it would not send any more wagons into North Korea until Pyongyang returned the 1,800 Chinese wagons.
Full Article
You almost end up feeling sorry for the Chinese officials who have the point on these aid shipments to the DPRK. Imagine how it's going to play out when they call their superiors in Beijing up & tell them that not only did the aid get through, but now the Chinese are going to have to buy back all the transport gear as "scrap metal". Ouch!
As I understand it, this isn't the first time this has happened. I read somewhere that quite a bit of rail rolling stock also used for these aid shipments went into the DPRK from China, but all the PRC got back was the train crews - no rolling stock. The NORKs treated the railroad rolling stock as just another part of the overall aid package. Probably didn't even say "thank you".
If it wasn't so deadly serious, it would be great material for Comedy Central.
Keeping an Eye on an Unruly Neighbor
CSIS/USIP, 3 Jan 08: Chinese Views of Economic Reform and Stability in North Korea
Quote:
This report is based on discussions with Chinese specialists on the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) during a CSIS-USIP delegation visit to Beijing, Changchun, and Yanji, June 25-30, 2007. Topics discussed included trends in North Korea’s economy and prospects for reform; current trends in Sino-DPRK economic relations; China’s policy toward North Korea in the wake of the nuclear test; Chinese debates on North Korea; Chinese assessments of North Korea’s political stability; and potential Chinese responses to instability.
Complete 28 page report at the link.
Political Change in North Korea
From the Parliamentary Library of Australia dated 23 January 2008:
Political Change in North Korea
Executive summary:
The prospect of political change in North Korea is a recurring question, buoyed by media speculation regarding the health of the current leader, Kim Jong-Il, the dearth of information about his succession and concern for the potential instability that could occur.
Australian interest stems from the possibility that political change in North Korea could potentially affect the economic viability of the region, which contains Australia’s three largest export markets of China, South Korea and Japan. Political change in North Korea could potentially require Australian assistance in humanitarian and/or military operations.
There are four scenarios for political change in North Korea. These are: hereditary or other familial succession, a smooth transferral of power to another centre of power, such as the military, forced political change through coup or revolution, and the disintegration of the state and its ultimate absorption by South Korea. Each scenario has specific warning signs that are yet to appear.
The key determinants of political change in North Korea are likely to be the military, external powers and the economy. Each of these determinants plays a central role in the political viability of the current North Korean leadership. There are several triggers of political change in North Korea, one of which is the deterioration in the health of current leader, Kim Jong-Il.
Given the potential economic and security impact, the issue of political change in North Korea is something that Australia and the region should be prepared to address.
Here is the PDF link:
http://www.aph.gov.au/library/pubs/r...-08/08rp19.pdf
Somebody get TEAM AMERICA! on the phone
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle3822538.ece
Kim Jong-il builds ‘Thunderbirds’ runway for war in North Korea
An airbase inside a mountain is the latest sign that North Korea, whose links to Syria’s nuclear programme came to light last week, is cranking up its military machine.
North Korean military engineers are completing an underground runway beneath a mountain that can protect fighter aircraft from attack until they take off at high speed through the mouth of a tunnel.
The 6,000ft runway is a few minutes’ flying time from the tense front line where the Korean People’s Army faces soldiers from the United States and South Korea.
Art imitates life. Life imitates art.
Who woke up the Times? NK has been building those
for years. I'm curious. Wonder how they know its 6,000 feet long if it's underground...
Haven't looked that close for a while
Quote:
Originally Posted by
TristanAbbey
Folks may be interested in this summary of the NK succession reportage:
http://bellum.stanfordreview.org/?p=316
Would appreciate comments from the more informed, in particular about whether I'm right or wrong about the big story being the succession, not the missile test, saber-rattling, etc.
But if the kids competent at all there are probably quite a few in the hierarchy that might not mind the change at all.
Good indicator of this would be to look at why O originally "fell from grace" in the first place;)
Good assessment, I think.
With four trips to Korea South -- and few incursions into the North (long ago) -- between 1950 and 1975, I know enough about North Korea to be mildly annoying; I do not even approach the danger level. However, I've watched them fairly closely for about 58 years now and I'm firmly convinced you're correct.
The succession is / will be a big event and I suspect the jockeying is bitter and ferocious. As for the rest of the noise, they have played the west like a second hand Ukelele since 1951. They are masters of the bluff and have manipulated every US administration since Eisenhower to get this or that break.
They constantly approach but generally do not cross the line Though they sporadically (mostly through miscalculation) step on the line just to see if we're paying attention. They are concerned with three Nations; China and Russia for obvious reasons -- and us; even Japan and South Korea are 'also rans' with them. They can be irrational and unduly bellicose but they are not crazy. That said, the worst thing we could do is ignore them -- that would drive them into a perhaps irrational frenzy...
North Korean Nuclear Test
LINK
Quote:
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) - North Korea claimed it carried out a powerful underground nuclear test Monday - much larger than one conducted in 2006 - in a major provocation in the escalating international standoff over its rogue nuclear and missile programs.
Pyongyang announced the test, and Russia's Defense Ministry confirmed an atomic explosion at 9:54 a.m. (0054 GMT) in northeastern North Korea, estimating the blast's yield at 10 to 20 kilotons - comparable to the bombs that flattened Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
The regime also test-fired three short-range, ground-to-air missiles later Monday from the same northeastern site where it launched a rocket last month, the Yonhap news agency reported, citing unnamed sources. The rocket liftoff, widely believed to be a cover for a test of its long-range missile technology, drew censure from the U.N. Security Council.
North Korea, incensed by the condemnation of the April 5 rocket launch, had warned last month that it would restart its rogue nuclear program, conduct an atomic test and carry out long-range missile tests.
As always, the best technical analysis is at armscontrolwonk.
They've been playing that game for 56 years
under only two leaders versus our 11 leaders in the same period. They're pretty good at it. They generally bluster and bluff until someone pays a bribe of some sort and then they remain quiet until they want something else. They're a little dotty but not completely nuts.