Iraq, 'Sinking Fast,' Is Ranked No. 2 on List of Unstable States

19 June Washington Post - Iraq, 'Sinking Fast,' Is Ranked No. 2 on List of Unstable States by Robin Wright.

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Iraq now ranks as the world's second most unstable country, ahead of war-ravaged or poverty-stricken nations such as Somalia, Zimbabwe, Ivory Coast, Congo, Afghanistan, Haiti and North Korea, according to the 2007 Failed States Index, issued yesterday by the Fund for Peace and Foreign Policy magazine.

Despite billions of dollars in foreign aid and the presence of more than 150,000 U.S. troops, Iraq has declined steadily over the past three years, according to the index. It ranked fourth last year, but its score dropped in almost all of the 12 political, economic, security and social indicators on which the index is based.

"The report tells us that Iraq is sinking fast," said Fund for Peace President Pauline Baker. "We believe it's reached the point of no return. We have recommended -- based on studies done every six months since the U.S. invasion -- that the administration face up to the reality that the only choices for Iraq are how and how violently it will break up."

In a parallel series of reports, the Fund for Peace, a research and advocacy group, suggests a policy of managed partition for Iraq...

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I use the Failed States index for many purposes, not the least of which is the correlation between American military involvement and where a state is on the list.

We like going into ####holes. LOL!

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We like going into ####holes. LOL!

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Funny I have I have lived and worked in one of those excreta states and traveled throughout 3 others. found that there is great comfort in the commonality of ####holes. You know what to expect. You know not to be disappointed. And you learn to keep your head down when the sky suddenly goes dark over your head and wind starts to blow. I am sure that my fellow outhouse companion, Stan, would agree:D

Besides one should always remember the story about the bird, the cow, and the cat...:eek:

Seriously, the break up seems to me to be the most likely outcome as it did in 1990 when we said as much.

Best

Tom

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Originally Posted by Tom Odom

Funny I have I have lived and worked in one of those excreta states and traveled throughout 3 others. found that there is great comfort in the commonality of ####holes. You know what to expect. You know not to be disappointed. And you learn to keep your head down when the sky suddenly goes dark over your head and wind starts to blow. I am sure that my fellow outhouse companion, Stan, would agree:D

Besides one should always remember the story about the bird, the cow, and the cat...:eek:

Seriously, the break up seems to me to be the most likely outcome as it did in 1990 when we said as much.

Best

Tom

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Tom,
I knew you were coming here today when I saw SWJED post this in the wee AM :rolleyes:

You're correct as always, better to ponder in a load of Sierra and at least be switched on.

I noticed that some of our favorite waterin' holes are listed high. Good to know things have yet to change in more than a decade :D

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Here is a list of the top 20 most unstable countries indexed by Foreign Policy and the Fund for Peace: 1, Sudan; 2, Iraq; 3, Somalia; 4, Zimbabwe; 5, Chad; 6, Ivory Coast; 7, Democratic Republic of the Congo; 8, Afghanistan; 9, Guinea; 10, Central African Republic; 11, Haiti; 12, Pakistan; 13, North Korea; 14, Myanmar; 15, Uganda; 16, Bangladesh; 17, Nigeria; 18, Ethiopia; 19, Burundi; 20, Timor-Leste.

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Glad to see Rwanda graduated out of the top 20 !

Tom

Indeed! I understand what you are stating - but it is interesting to see how involved we've become in these places.

I've been to #7 (Afghanistan), #36 (Egypt), #41 (Kyrgyzstan), and was a thunderstorm away from #12 (Pakistan).

11. Haiti

Haiti could have been on such a list since Toussaint L'Ouverture was breathing air. Once you get on this kind of list, is there any getting off it, I wonder? Haiti is on despite multiple U.S. military expeditions to "stabilize" the place.

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Here is a list of the top 20 most unstable countries indexed by Foreign Policy and the Fund for Peace: 1, Sudan; 2, Iraq; 3, Somalia; 4, Zimbabwe; 5, Chad; 6, Ivory Coast; 7, Democratic Republic of the Congo; 8, Afghanistan; 9, Guinea; 10, Central African Republic; 11, Haiti; 12, Pakistan; 13, North Korea; 14, Myanmar; 15, Uganda; 16, Bangladesh; 17, Nigeria; 18, Ethiopia; 19, Burundi; 20, Timor-Leste.

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Hmmm seems I live in 2 (bold black) and worked/traveled in eight.

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Originally Posted by Tacitus

11. Haiti

Haiti could have been on such a list since Toussaint L'Ouverture was breathing air. Once you get on this kind of list, is there any getting off it, I wonder? Haiti is on despite multiple U.S. military expeditions to "stabilize" the place.

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Tacitus, check here regarding the Fund for Peace's 12 indicators.

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These are neither exclusive nor exhaustive. You can add more measures, as appropriate.

Social Indicators
I-1. Mounting Demographic Pressures
I-2. Massive Movement of Refugees or Internally Displaced Persons creating
Complex Humanitarian Emergencies
I-3. Legacy of Vengeance-Seeking Group Grievance or Group Paranoia
I-4. Chronic and Sustained Human Flight

Economic Indicators
I-5. Uneven Economic Development along Group Lines
I-6. Sharp and/or Severe Economic Decline

Political Indicators
I-7. Criminalization and/or Delegitimization of the State
I-8. Progressive Deterioration of Public Services
I-9. Suspension or Arbitrary Application of the Rule of Law and Widespread

Violation of Human Rights
I-10. Security Apparatus Operates as a "State Within a State"
I-11. Rise of Factionalized Elites
I-12. Intervention of Other States or External Political Actors

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Originally Posted by Tom Odom

Hmmm seems I live in 2 (bold black) and worked/traveled in eight.

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Out of 20, Tom...That's not bad at all :wry:

Look at it this way, at least you still have your hair and sanity :cool:

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Originally Posted by Stan

Out of 20, Tom...That's not bad at all :wry:

Look at it this way, at least you still have your hair and sanity :cool:

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Well I have my sanity (sort of) :eek:

On Haiti, just a story from my teaching days at CGSC. A friend was giving a class to the African students of the day and the subject was human rights and democracy. As he gave the class he held up Haiti as a long standing independent nation that has struggled with democracy and human rights. At the point, the Somali in the class raised his hand and when he was recognized, he pointed to the Haitian student and said, "My country has struggled since independence in 1960 with these issues. Your country has been independent for nearly 200 years? What is wrong with you people?

Needless to say, the class sort of fell apart after that one...

Nice story Tom. Reminds me of the Indian officer at the Armor Advanced Course who was briefing about religion in India, and he showed a Shia cult flagellating themselves with chains (forgot what religious holiday that was for).

The Saudi National Guardsman jumped out of his chair and screamed, "That is not Islam!"

Things went downhill quickly from there.

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Originally Posted by Ski

Nice story Tom. Reminds me of the Indian officer at the Armor Advanced Course who was briefing about religion in India, and he showed a Shia cult flagellating themselves with chains (forgot what religious holiday that was for).

The Saudi National Guardsman jumped out of his chair and screamed, "That is not Islam!"

Things went downhill quickly from there.

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LOL I bet it did. That would have been Ashura. Then again there was Ralph Peters who went to a conference sponsored by NATO in Italy and pulled out a map showing his proposed borders for Kurdistan, including portions of Turkey. The Turkish officers in the audience were not amused.

Best

Tom

Interesting, Tom, that the Haitian student was with the Africans and not the Latin Americans. Last time I looked, Haiti was an American republic:eek:

Seriously, the reason was that Haiti has more in common with Africa than it does with the rest of the Americas. That said, the Somali's question is a good one. If it can be answered for Haiti then we may be able to find an answer about how to address the failed/failing state phenomenon.

Maybe things have gotten so much better in the other countries that Iraq isn't really sinking at all ... it's the same or getting better.


I will e-mail my comment to Tony Snow immediately.

The governor of my state is running for President. Our state is just about last in everything. But I should watch what I post. He is currently my boss. He is advocating total withdrawal from Iraq. On the other hand, my state is only one of a few states that is in the black. Why? The oil & gas industry.

As for Iraq. Picture the great State of California suffering the same daily routine. Liberals and Conservatives blowing each other up. Tortured bodies found everyday and sent to the morgue. Illegal immigrants kidnapping citizens and demanding ransom. Police being attacked and/or executed. The list goes on...

But it isn't happening in California because we have a better system. They have an old archaic system that is difficult for even the most learned on the culture to understand. Iraq is now the, "FIGHT CLUB!", capitol of the world. I wonder if we take my governor's advice and completely leave Iraq. Would Iraq become the #1 worst place in the world or would it move up in the rankings. All I know is we opened up a big can of worms. I hope Washington knows what they are doing. No pun intended.

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Originally Posted by John T. Fishel

Interesting, Tom, that the Haitian student was with the Africans and not the Latin Americans. Last time I looked, Haiti was an American republic:eek:

Seriously, the reason was that Haiti has more in common with Africa than it does with the rest of the Americas. That said, the Somali's question is a good one. If it can be answered for Haiti then we may be able to find an answer about how to address the failed/failing state phenomenon.

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John T.

We always treated Haitians as Africans; I was scheduled to go be the DATT in Haiti as an African FAO when fate and Rwanda intervened. You are correct; the Somali question was a good one. A French instructor of mine at DLI who was Haitian answered it one day in class. We asked him what he thought of the Duvaliers (Pappy and Baby) and he said they were bad for the country, bad for the people, and bad for the region. He then said if he was given the chance, he would do exactly what they had done. :cool:

Tom

Tom--

You are right, of course. DOD always treated Haiti as if it were a slice of Africa in the Americas. All the army attaches were Africa FAOs. I wonder - do you know - if State did the same?

Regarding the DLI instructor: His comment suggests something inherent in Haitian culture. Indeed, many scholars of Haiti - both Haitian and outsiders - have labeled Haitian culture as being predatory. This smacks of cutural deteminism which, as one old anthro prof, David Bidney, argued truly overstates the issue. The problem I see is that I don't have any answer for Haiti other than a long term "trusteeship" (nice word for colonial rule) in which power is devolved form the local to the national level as the culture is changed.

:eek:

On that cheery note

JohnT

Haiti seems to share a low aptitude for self government with many African countries. Until Mugabe recently topped them, I had thought that Haiti may have the record for incompetence in governance.

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Originally Posted by Merv Benson

Haiti seems to share a low aptitude for self government with many African countries. Until Mugabe recently topped them, I had thought that Haiti may have the record for incompetence in governance.

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Merv,

Certainly Haiti ranks up there. But Africa is simply amazing when it comes to the comic-tragedy of Mugabe and Mugabe-like figures. Stan has a continuous decade of Zaire/Congo under his belt and fueled with a couple of beers can offer hours of stories. It gets to the point where you have to guard against making erroneous assumptions of incompetency. That was the case with certain of my SF guys when they came from Haiti and joined me in Rwanda where the RPA stood out by virtue of its efficiency.

But where Haiti still reigns supreme is duration of independent incompetence; two centuries is quite a record.

Best

Tom

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Originally Posted by John T. Fishel

You are right, of course. DOD always treated Haiti as if it were a slice of Africa in the Americas. All the army attaches were Africa FAOs. I wonder - do you know - if State did the same?

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I believe Ambassador Swing went straight from South Africa to Haiti in the early 90s. One man doesn't make a trend, but it's one data point.

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You are right, of course. DOD always treated Haiti as if it were a slice of Africa in the Americas. All the army attaches were Africa FAOs. I wonder - do you know - if State did the same?

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I believe that is the case, per Bill's response above. Also had to do with language training of course as French was an Africanist language

Tom

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Originally Posted by Tom Odom

Merv,

Certainly Haiti ranks up there. But Africa is simply amazing when it comes to the comic-tragedy of Mugabe and Mugabe-like figures. Stan has a continuous decade of Zaire/Congo under his belt and fueled with a couple of beers can offer hours of stories. It gets to the point where you have to guard against making erroneous assumptions of incompetency. That was the case with certain of my SF guys when they came from Haiti and joined me in Rwanda where the RPA stood out by virtue of its efficiency.

But where Haiti still reigns supreme is duration of independent incompetence; two centuries is quite a record.

Best

Tom

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Nichols said it best (and Tom has studied and lived with it longer than most care to even think about): "You can take the man out of WAWA, but you can't take WAWA out of the man."

The moment we forget this absurd and abysmal saying, we will be subjected to jungle rules...and just plain ol' screwed !

We began to imagine all sorts of pathetic and hopeful means of saving or restructuring a culture that has done just fine for decades, destroyed anything the French or Belg left behind, and will steal you blind while doing said.

I think the Haitians came over for short courses, but never graduated :wry:

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Originally Posted by SWCAdmin

I believe Ambassador Swing went straight from South Africa to Haiti in the early 90s. One man doesn't make a trend, but it's one data point.

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The NCOs that replaced me both in Africa and Estonia came directly from Haiti (you got me there). Merely due to French language skills...in Estonia ?

The latter also served in Canada :eek:

I doubt State could pork up such an ideal marriage...You have to attend FSI French language training to screw things up this bad...aye ?

West Africa Wins Again

My dad has been doing business in West Africa for 30 years. He still goes to Nigeria twice a year, and says it hasn't changed since the 70's.

In Haiti, the mulato elite speak French. All Haitians, however, speak Creole.

When I was there, I did not identify any US soldiers, not even 3rd SFG guys, -other than Haitian born Americans - who spoke Creole. The 3rd Group guys were trying to pick it up, however. The ICITAP folk who were training the police - I knew their chief, Rick Lang, from Panama - were Spanish speakers. The RCMP were all French speakers (at least bi-lingual) and their may have been Creole speakers among them since Quebec has a large number of Haitian immigrants. But, then, the RCMP are Canadian, not American...:o

John T

yep and that was still the case when my ex was there and i was planning to go in the early to mid 90s. I suspect it is still the same; no one really gets Creole, just French.

Tom

Hi John !
Most of our buds from 3rd were in Sub-Sahara along with CA back then. Some of the 5th studied Creole in my days (1984), and a few made it to Zäire (now talk about funny to listen to...even the Africans didn't know what to think).

Bi-lingual you say ? I can't even imagine (after speaking Belgian French for 10 years) how a Québécois could get along in Haiti, or for that matter, a Haitian in Quebec.

Regards, Stan

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Originally Posted by John T. Fishel

In Haiti, the mulato elite speak French. All Haitians, however, speak Creole.

When I was there, I did not identify any US soldiers, not even 3rd SFG guys, -other than Haitian born Americans - who spoke Creole. The 3rd Group guys were trying to pick it up, however. The ICITAP folk who were training the police - I knew their chief, Rick Lang, from Panama - were Spanish speakers. The RCMP were all French speakers (at least bi-lingual) and their may have been Creole speakers among them since Quebec has a large number of Haitian immigrants. But, then, the RCMP are Canadian, not American...:o

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Originally Posted by Tom Odom

But where Haiti still reigns supreme is duration of independent incompetence; two centuries is quite a record.
Tom

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Gentlemen,
So what is unique to Haiti, which would explain this kind of record of futility? All I can think of is voodoo.

I know nothing about voodoo, other than some vauge notions of zombies, voodoo dolls, and using it to control people. I've seen "Live and Let Die", that James Bond flick.

Serious question for you old Hatian hands out there. We often debate on here whether there is something inherent in Islam causing the problems in Muslim countries. Well, is there something to voodoo that contributes to the misery in Haiti?

They share the island of Hispanola with The Dominican Republic, which looks like Switzerland in comparison. I don't think they practice voodoo there, either.

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Originally Posted by Culpeper

As for Iraq. Picture the great State of California suffering the same daily routine. Liberals and Conservatives blowing each other up. Tortured bodies found everyday and sent to the morgue. Illegal immigrants kidnapping citizens and demanding ransom. Police being attacked and/or executed. The list goes on...

But it isn't happening in California because we have a better system. They have an old archaic system that is difficult for even the most learned on the culture to understand. Iraq is now the, "FIGHT CLUB!", capitol of the world. I wonder if we take my governor's advice and completely leave Iraq. Would Iraq become the #1 worst place in the world or would it move up in the rankings. All I know is we opened up a big can of worms. I hope Washington knows what they are doing. No pun intended.

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Iraq, unlike California, has 100 billion + barrels of oil up for grabs.


What's going on in Iraq is more like Mad Max where groups/gangs have formed to get a peice of the black gold while the majority of the population suffers.

Hi Tacitus--

Vodun ( the correct term for voodoo) is the religion of the masses in Haiti, It is a sycretism of Catholocism with sub-Saharan African animism. It is not, however, unique to Haiti but is common in may areas of the world where there were large numbers of African slaves. Among those areas are Brazil - where it is called Condomble - Cuba - where it is known as Santeria - and the American South around Charleston and New Orleans.

So, I don't think that one can make a causal argument for Vodun expliaining Haiti's culture of predation and its self-destructiveness. At most, one might suggest a possible contributory role in combination with many other variables.

Cheers

JohnT

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Originally Posted by John T. Fishel

Hi Tacitus--

Vodun ( the correct term for voodoo) is the religion of the masses in Haiti, It is a sycretism of Catholocism with sub-Saharan African animism. It is not, however, unique to Haiti but is common in may areas of the world where there were large numbers of African slaves. Among those areas are Brazil - where it is called Condomble - Cuba - where it is known as Santeria - and the American South around Charleston and New Orleans.

So, I don't think that one can make a causal argument for Vodun expliaining Haiti's culture of predation and its self-destructiveness. At most, one might suggest a possible contributory role in combination with many other variables.

Cheers

JohnT

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Hi John !
A good point, but I rarely saw Sub-Saharans performing any rituals (thank God). I did serve with Tom, does that count ?

We do however happen to have a distinguished resident member that performs this kind of stuff (in Canada).

I will summon him ASAP :eek:

Hi Folks,

I guess Stan's summoning spell worked :D..

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Originally Posted by John T. Fishel

Vodun ( the correct term for voodoo) is the religion of the masses in Haiti, It is a sycretism of Catholocism with sub-Saharan African animism. It is not, however, unique to Haiti but is common in may areas of the world where there were large numbers of African slaves. Among those areas are Brazil - where it is called Condomble - Cuba - where it is known as Santeria - and the American South around Charleston and New Orleans.

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John's got it as far as Vodoun is concerned (although "animism" is somewhat misleading; the original forms are closer to a combination of ancestor worship and "classical" paganism rather than animism). Most of these syncretic religions do share certain commonalities amongst deities, spirits (e.g. the Orishas and the "riders"), and ritual formats. There are fairly large communities in most major North American cities as well (including Toronto, Montreal and Ottawa).

What is fairly unique to Haiti and the New Orleans area (part of the same culture area originally) is the dualistic form that shows up. For several centuries, there as been a fairly heavy split between "factions" within Vodoun; probably the best know is the activity of the Duvaliers and the Tontons Macoute who used one of these factions to establish a reign of terror.

[quote=John T. Fishel;19173]So, I don't think that one can make a causal argument for Vodun expliaining Haiti's culture of predation and its self-destructiveness. At most, one might suggest a possible contributory role in combination with many other variables.[/quote

I've got to agree with John, here. My own gut guess is that the major factor in Haiti's instability is that it started as a slave revolt state with a heavy emphasis on conflict. Certainly its invasion of the Dominican Republic in the 1820's contributed to that vector. Vodoun was used during the occupation as a "weapon" against the Dominicans, and it is still in use today in the DR amongst the Haitian community there (~2 million people or 25% of the population).

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Originally Posted by Stan

We do however happen to have a distinguished resident member that performs this kind of stuff (in Canada).

I will summon him ASAP :eek:

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Hi Stan,

"performs"? Nah, that's not my style at all :eek:. I've only been to a couple of them and I know more people who are involved in Santeria than in Vodoun :D.

Marc

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Originally Posted by John T. Fishel

Hi Tacitus--

Vodun ( the correct term for voodoo) is the religion of the masses in Haiti, It is a sycretism of Catholocism with sub-Saharan African animism. It is not, however, unique to Haiti but is common in may areas of the world where there were large numbers of African slaves. Among those areas are Brazil - where it is called Condomble - Cuba - where it is known as Santeria - and the American South around Charleston and New Orleans.

So, I don't think that one can make a causal argument for Vodun expliaining Haiti's culture of predation and its self-destructiveness. At most, one might suggest a possible contributory role in combination with many other variables.

Cheers

JohnT

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Greetings JohnT,
Thanks for the background on Vodun. I don't claim any insight into voodoo or Haiti. Just wondering what is unique there. Maybe the voodoo is a symptom, not a cause, of the problem?

Religion is a fascinating subject. For example, Rastafarians accept that Haile Selassie I, the former Emperor of Ethiopia, was God incarnate. To a non-Rasta that just sounds bizarre. More broadly, any religion not your own seems a fraud perpretrated on a gullible public. People ask, "How can they not see through that sort of nonsense?" The idea that your own religion seems just as crazy to a man with different one does not seem to occur in the minds of men.

Hi Tacitus,

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Originally Posted by Tacitus

Religion is a fascinating subject. For example, Rastafarians accept that Haile Selassie I, the former Emperor of Ethiopia, was God incarnate. To a non-Rasta that just sounds bizarre. More broadly, any religion not your own seems a fraud perpretrated on a gullible public. People ask, "How can they not see through that sort of nonsense?" The idea that your own religion seems just as crazy to a man with different one does not seem to occur in the minds of men.

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One of the interesting things, for me at any rate, has been how religious systems can be used to condition perceptions of reality. From my own studies, it is readily apparent that almost any religious system can be used to either reinforce or destabilize any other social system. There are, however, some interesting clues that can be picked up as to the particular aims - i.e. is the system focused on making the individual or the group more or less stable? is the system aimed at limiting or expanding personal growth? is the system in "balance" with lived reality (i,e, does it provide an explanatory model that actually works for the believer)? This is, however, getting into another area...

Marc