Kosovo Independence

11 May NY Times - U.N. Security Council to Review Draft on Kosovo Independence by Warren Hoge.

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The United States and its European allies will circulate a draft Security Council resolution Friday to endorse a plan granting Kosovo supervised independence, Zalmay Khalilzad, the American ambassador to the United Nations, said Thursday.

The plan, brokered by Martti Ahtisaari, the United Nations mediator, is favored by the ethnic Albanians, who make up 90 percent of the population of Kosovo, but it is fiercely opposed by Serbia and its veto-bearing ally on the Council, Russia...

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ICG, 14 May 07: Kosovo: No Good Alternatives to the Ahtisaari Plan

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....Implementation of Ahtisaari’s Comprehensive Proposal for the Kosovo Status Settlement will pose significant challenges. The key to a peaceful transition lies in its extensive decentralisation measures, which offer a way to secure buy-in to a new Kosovo state by its Serb minority, especially the majority of Kosovo Serbs who live in enclaves south of the Ibar. The Ahtisaari Proposal is wisely ambiguous with regard to the powers and duration of the EU mission that will oversee this settlement, ensuring that the international community will retain the final word in Kosovo through its formative years of statehood.

There is strong support from the major Western countries for the adoption of a resolution based on the full Ahtisaari plan. But it is also important to exhaust all reasonable opportunities to achieve the greatest unity possible within the Council, and most importantly, to avoid a Russian veto....

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20 July NY Times - Kosovo Independence Measure Withdrawn From U.N. Council by Warren Hoge.

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The sponsors of a resolution putting Kosovo on the path to independence withdrew the measure from the Security Council on Friday in the face of a promised Russian veto and said a six-nation group would now seek a way to settle the contentious question of independence...

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ICG, 21 Aug 07: Breaking the Kosovo Stalemate: Europe's Responsibility

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The preferred strategy of the European Union (EU) and the U.S. to bring Kosovo to supervised independence through the United Nations Security Council has failed, following Russia’s declared intention to veto. With Kosovo Albanians increasingly restive and likely soon to declare unilateral independence in the absence of a credible alternative, Europe risks a new bloody and destabilising conflict. To avoid chaos on its doorstep, the EU and its member states must now accept the primary responsibility for bringing Kosovo to supervised independence.

The risks to Europe of inaction are substantial. Before the end of the year, Kosovo Albanian leaders will be under what is likely to be irresistible internal pressure to declare independence, with or without external support. If they act and are not supported, Kosovo would fracture: Serbia reclaiming the land pocket north of the Ibar River, Serbs elsewhere in Kosovo fleeing, and eight years of internationally guided institution-building lost. The implosion would destabilise neighbouring countries, increasing pressure for further fractures along ethnic lines. The EU would quickly experience refugee flows and feel the impact of the boost that disorder would give to organised crime networks in the Balkans that already distribute most of Europe’s heroin, facilitate illegal migration and are responsible for nearly 30 per cent of women victims of the sex trade worldwide.

Failure to act would also discredit the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and its efforts to project itself as a credible international actor in conflicts elsewhere. As its own official security strategy declares, “the credibility of our foreign policy depends on the consolidation of our achievements [in the Balkans]”.....

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Its interesting. In the last year I get the feeling that the European leadership is starting to re-evaluate its relationship with the United States, and reconsider its position on security related issues.

It seems to make for a renewed need for better relations with the U.S. One indicator may be the recent visit from the French President to the U.S.

I think we're going to see some interesting security relationships form over the next 5-10 years. The basis will probably come out of traditional partners, but there looks to be some curve balls out there. Lots of challenges ahead I suppose.

CSRC, 6 Sep 07: Kosovo - Third Time Lucky?

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This paper provides an analysis of the current impasse in international community policy towards resolution of the Kosovo status issue, with consequent dangers for regional stability.

Key Points
* Little real progress has been made in 2007 towards a settlement.
* Kosovo is likely to become increasingly unstable in this climate of uncertainty.
* The European Union is unlikely to be able to act as an arbiter of the competing nationalist claims.
* A clear lead by the international community under US leadership is urgently required.

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ICG, 16 Oct 07: Serbia: Maintaining Peace in the Presevo Valley

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Any future instability in southern Serbia could come from either the Presevo Valley exiles in the Gnjilane/Gjilan region of Kosovo or Serbia’s response to Kosovo independence. It is difficult to imagine Rasim Ljajic, with all his other responsibilities, being able to take the necessary steps to make the CB function much better by the end of 2007. Belgrade, which seems intent on pursuing a course that could lead to partition of Kosovo, may enter a prolonged state of confusion following an independence decision. It is also quite likely Kosovo independence would find Serbia with an angry government and populace, tempted to lash out at vulnerable targets.....

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CSRC, 2 Nov 07: What Could the EU Accomplish in Kosovo? Between the Hammer and the Anvil

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Key Points

* The EU presence in Kosovo is critical to prevent possible conflicts and further disintegration of the region;

* A multi-ethnic Kosovo has failed and can not function if the current state of affairs persists in the short and medium term;

* The EU integration mechanisms could bypass the conflict of principles of state sovereignty and self-determination, which is one of the key problems of the Kosovo crisis.

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Complete 17 page paper at the link.

ICG, 6 Dec 07: Kosovo Countdown: A Blueprint for Transition

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Kosovo’s transition to the status of conditional, or supervised, independence has been greatly complicated by Russia’s firm support of Serbia’s refusal to accept that it has lost its one-time province. Recognition of conditional independence has broad international, and certainly European Union (EU) and American, support. Under threat of Moscow’s veto, the Security Council will not revoke its Resolution 1244 of 1999 that acknowledged Serbian sovereignty while setting up the UN Mission (UNMIK) to prepare Kosovo for self-government pending a political settlement on its future status. Nor will the Council be allowed to approve the plan for a conditionally independent Kosovo devised by the Secretary-General’s special representative, Martti Ahtisaari, earlier this year and authorise the EU-led missions meant to implement that plan.

While the Troika of U.S., EU and Russian diplomats explored the bleak prospects for Kosovo-Serbia agreement over the past several months, Brussels and Washington have also been able to use the time to devise ways to support Kosovo’s transition to conditional independence without needing the support of the Security Council. The EU now has a better sense of the need to maintain its unity and take primary responsibility for the crisis. But Kosovo and the wider Western Balkans have become less stable, and further delay would worsen matters: this is not a situation that can drift comfortably into “frozen conflict” status. Once the Contact Group reports the inevitable Troika failure to the UN Secretary-General on or about 10 December, the “Quint” – France, Germany, Italy, the UK and U.S. – should, despite Serbian and Russian opposition, promptly begin implementing a plan to orchestrate a peaceful transition culminating in Kosovo’s conditional independence in May 2008....

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Complete 35 page paper at the link.

I am interested in hearing perspectives on Kosovo Independence, especially related to the potential impact for stability in the region and Europe in general.

A friend of mine is very much opposed to the USG support for Kosovo Independence, feeling that it creates a historical precedence that other nationalist/separatist movements will use to their advantage. I understand that this is the Russian argument. He fears that this might lead to a great deal of violenace and instability.

I don't really understand USG motives for supporting Kosovo at this time. It doesn't make sense if it's just about countering Russian influence and presence in Serbia. I don't buy the "we support people's right to self-determination and nation-hood" argument either.

I am also not convinced that the USG is ready and willing to step in and stop any violence that erupts.

If anyone has any good perspectives or news sources/analysis on these issues, I would appreciate it. I'm a novice to the subject and would like a better understanding.

Well, living in Europe, I'am not a fan of this evolution.
The next thing they will do is aplying for membership with NATO and EU.
As a former military man I would wish peace and stability for every new country, but as a sivilian I'am going to get stuck with the bill :(

I'm all for it...

Why not?

If the UN can allow East Timor to have a referendum on independence and leave Indonesia, why can't Kosovo go free?

Most would say that East Timor was forcibly incorporated into Indonesia in the 1970s when the Portuguese left.

People say Kosovo has been part of Serbia for centuries.

But it's not true. Kosovo was captured by Serbia during the First Balkans War in 1912. Before that, it was part of the Ottoman Empire from about 1470 onwards.

Before that, it was part of Serbia...maybe you've heard of the Battle of Kosovo Polje in 1389 that is the Serb national day. It was really a draw and the Ottomans didn't take control of Kosovo until the 1470s. So, before Columbus discovered the West Indies, Kosovo was part of Serbia...but that was a long time ago.

So the Serbs took it from the Ottomans.

The majority of people in Kosovo have been Albanians for some time. They were left out of the new Albanian state (as was half of the ethnic Albanian population in the Balkans) when Albania was created before the 1920s. Kosovar Albanians have been a majority for some time...and they do not like Serbia or being part of it. They have been discriminated against in their own home area for some time.

Now, there have been Serbs in Kosovo for some time too...centuries...but they are a declining population...Serbs from Serbia don't want to live in Kosovo and a lot of Kosovo Serbs were leaving before the war...no jobs!

So, do you force a people who have already fought a guerrilla campaign to stay in a country they don't want to be part of...a people who have for all purposes been free for the last 9 years...and watch the situation blow up again...or do you gamble and give them independence, something that once Kosovo is split (the northern part was part of Serbia proper until Tito changed the borders in 1946) will lead to more stability, or do you try to have Serbia come back in and fight another war.

Borders change...they always have...and this really is the best way forward...for all the Serbs say about Kosovo, ask them if they will move to Kosovo...and the numbers they had demonstrating in Belgrade today, well...10,000 isn't much for a nationalistic demonstration in Serbia.

The Serbs know it's over...they may not want to admit it, but they know...but they'll make a big deal of it and add it to their martyr mentality...I mean, besides the Catalans, who else has a national defeat as their national day?

Bloomberg, 18 Feb 2008

Benchmark Asia, Europe Coal Rise to Records on Disruptions.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aDEg4o8vJVE8

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Coal from Richards Bay, South Africa, the source of more than a quarter of coal burned in Europe for power, advanced $5.70, or 5.2 percent, to an average of $115.90 a metric ton in the week ended Feb. 15, according to McCloskey. Prices at Newcastle, Australia, a benchmark for Taiwan, Japan and South Korea, gained $13.68, or 11 percent, to $139.16 a ton, according to the globalCOAL NEWC Index.

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Deutsche Welle, Feb 12, 2008 (English)

Could an Independent Kosovo Sustain Itself Economically?

http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,...122353,00.html

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Kosovo sits on an estimated 15 billion tons of coal.

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However, behind all the hope and optimism which stirs in the province ahead of the declaration there is still some uncertainty over whether Kosovo -- known during the Cold War as "Yugoslavia's poorhouse" -- will be able to support itself economically as a new nation state.

Even today, Kosovo rates as one of the poorest regions in Europe. According to the World Bank, the average annual salary for the population is 1,243 euros ($1,803). It reports that 37 percent of the population lives in poverty and survives on less than 1.42 euros a day.

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Originally Posted by tulanealum

I'm all for it...

Why not?

If the UN can allow East Timor to have a referendum on independence and leave Indonesia, why can't Kosovo go free?

Most would say that East Timor was forcibly incorporated into Indonesia in the 1970s when the Portuguese left.

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Well, it's not just the Russians who oppose it. The Georgians can't be too happy (South Ossetia), the Spanish aren't recognizing it (Basques), Sri Lanka (Tamil), etc., etc. There's plenty of countries that wouldn't like to see a long-suffering ethnic minority region get its independence. . .

. . .in 15 years would we want the Hispanics to declare Californian independence?

I just consider it a positive sign that Kostunica announced that regardless of Serbian anger over the decision, there would be no violence . . .the Kosovar President said the same regarding the Serbian minority in Kosovo. Given that much of humanity's misery seems to have arisen from the Balkans over the centuries, it's nothing short of an enormous shift that this is happening peacefully.

Matt

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Originally Posted by MattC86

Well, it's not just the Russians who oppose it. The Georgians can't be too happy (South Ossetia), the Spanish aren't recognizing it (Basques), Sri Lanka (Tamil), etc., etc. There's plenty of countries that wouldn't like to see a long-suffering ethnic minority region get its independence. . .

. . .in 15 years would we want the Hispanics to declare Californian independence?

I just consider it a positive sign that Kostunica announced that regardless of Serbian anger over the decision, there would be no violence . . .the Kosovar President said the same regarding the Serbian minority in Kosovo. Given that much of humanity's misery seems to have arisen from the Balkans over the centuries, it's nothing short of an enormous shift that this is happening peacefully.

Matt

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Matt, I think you're right...both leaders said the same thing and it was good...but I can tell you right now, that if that happens in practice, it will be a miracle...the Kosovo Serbs will never ever accept independence. Most will eventually leave when they realize the VJ and MUP are not going to cross the border...but this is not over...although I think an independent Kosovo is good for Balkans stability, there will be pains...RS in Bosnia will use this to join Serbia...partition will occur in Kosovo with the north leaving and maybe western Serbia rejoining Kosovo (it was broken off by Tito and given to Serbia in 1946 as current northern Kosovo was part of Serbia and given to Kosovo in an effort to dilute the Albanian majority in Kosovo), and eventually the question of whether Kosovo will join Albania and what the Albanians in Macedonia will do, etc.

As for the other minority groups, well, this is the way the world works...it's history and it's not going to change...despite hyper globalists telling us that we're moving to bigger bodies and the nation state is dead.

I won't deny this, but I'm all for Catalonia getting independence from Spain...peacefully though.

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"...As for the other minority groups, well, this is the way the world works...it's history and it's not going to change...despite hyper globalists telling us that we're moving to bigger bodies and the nation state is dead..."

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Tribalism will trump globalism -- fortunately. All the areas named plus Scotland, Wales, Quebec and literally dozens of other places argue for a future of more, not less fragmentation. Which is fine with me.

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I won't deny this, but I'm all for Catalonia getting independence from Spain...peacefully though.

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Peacefully is always better but history shows that it is not always probable. Like it or not, minor warfare is the story of the world and of mankind. The Cold War, a very artificial period in history, has led many today to think the lack of small wars due to great power constraints was and is the norm. Be nice if it was; it is not.

Having spent some time in both Bosnia and Albania I can say I would be very suprised if this does not result in violence. The Serbs got a bad rap for many of the things they did and deservidly so but that tends to foment the myth that everybody else was an innocent victim of Serb aggression. As far as I can tell, nobody's hands were clean. Some were dirtier than others but all have things that they would prefer be foregotten about. My point is that violence always seems to be just below the surface in the Balkans. Serpska for instance has wanted out of Bosnia pretty much since there was a Bosnia. This might very well encourage them to act. There are also other parts of Bosnia that are ethnically Croat and might well be tired of being part of a dirt poor Muslim country. I see this as setting a bad precident.

SFC W

But was East Timor a bad precedent...similar situation...maybe not the mixing populations, but there were certainly those who wanted to stay as part of Indonesia.

If Kosovo stays part of Serbia, then you can expect more fighting and worse than what will happen if it is independent. Is that good?

It's a bad situation all around...but I believe this is the best option...and as for the RS, let them leave...should they be made to stay in a state they don't want to be part of?

That's only a matter of time...the RS will leave for Serbia.

Borders have always been changing and they will continue...you can try to stop it, but if you want to, you may have to use an iron fist. And will the world really be ok with that? The only way to keep Kosovo in Serbia is letting the Serbs fight the Albanians and push those out (to where?) that won't accept it as part of Serbia.

Eventually the RS is going to go...EURFOR is unlikely to try to quell that.

Why didn't people raise a fuss about Montenegro leaving Serbia...there is a 31% population of Serbs in Montenegro...they didn't want the breakup to happen...how much complaining was there from the international community then?

Time will tell, but I'm not sure that "solving" this problem won't just start a lot of other problems. I'm a bit afraid that's this might be the tipping point for Russia to really wratchet up their mischief. How does this play in Russia? I wouldn't be suprised to see this strengthen Putin's position - more evidence of US manipulation and alignment against Russia...

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Originally Posted by Uboat509

Having spent some time in both Bosnia and Albania I can say I would be very suprised if this does not result in violence. The Serbs got a bad rap for many of the things they did and deservidly so but that tends to foment the myth that everybody else was an innocent victim of Serb aggression. As far as I can tell, nobody's hands were clean. Some were dirtier than others but all have things that they would prefer be foregotten about. My point is that violence always seems to be just below the surface in the Balkans. Serpska for instance has wanted out of Bosnia pretty much since there was a Bosnia. This might very well encourage them to act. There are also other parts of Bosnia that are ethnically Croat and might well be tired of being part of a dirt poor Muslim country. I see this as setting a bad precident.

SFC W

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Given what has occurred over the last 48 hours - you're proven right and I'm proven wrong, again. I'll stop my prognostications :wry:

Besides the mob attacks on the closed US Embassy in Belgrade, there are reports from CNN, CFR.org, and several other sources that Serbian Army reservists "clashed" with NATO-led peacekeepers at the border checkpoint. No elaboration on what exactly "clashed" consists of, or if NATO-led means NATO forces. The NATO commander had said they had drawn up extensive plans for such a scenario - I certainly hope so.

Latest on the Serbian situation available here:

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe...nce/index.html

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7256158.stm

and

http://www.cfr.org/publication/15481...breadcrumb=%2F

Matt

Matt,

Last I read "clashed" meant throwing rocks at the NATO troops, hadn't heard anything worse. Yet...

I was watching CNN International as this was breaking and they kept switching back and forth between images of people praying in church and people throwing rocks and cocktails at the US Embassy. They kept saying there were something like 150,000 protestors, but it took them about 20 minutes to clarify that only a small fraction of those were violent. For awhile, they were more or less saying that all of them were up in arms. We get Jim Clancy over here and his knuckle-headed commentary makes me want to throw my TV out the window. For example, he said, "It appears that the police are on the street to deal with the violent protestors". I think it's time to send him back to Iraq where he can say things like, "It appears, from the window of my hotel, that there's an increased/decreased level of violence."

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Originally Posted by MattC86

Well, it's not just the Russians who oppose it. The Georgians can't be too happy (South Ossetia), the Spanish aren't recognizing it (Basques), Sri Lanka (Tamil), etc., etc. There's plenty of countries that wouldn't like to see a long-suffering ethnic minority region get its independence. . .

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The Jamestown Foundation's Eurasia Daily Monitor, 21 Feb 08:
Kosova and the "Frozen" Conflicts of the Former USSR

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The leaders of the breakaway mini-states of Transnistria in Moldova, Karabakh in Azerbaijan, as well as Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia welcomed Kosova's unilateral declaration of independence this week and its subsequent recognition by the international community. At a joint press conference this week in Moscow, the presidents of self-proclaimed South Ossetia and Abkhazia Eduard Kokoiti and Sergei Bagapsh, announced they will “address Russia, other CIS countries, and international organizations to defend and approve our rights to independence.” The Transnistria foreign ministry issued a statement announcing, “The declaration and consecutive recognition of Kosova are of principal importance since they create a new model of conflict settlement based on the priority of the right for self-determination”.

Transnistria , Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Karabakh proclaimed their sovereignty in the early 1990s as the USSR collapsed, but no international actor has recognized them. Only Abkhazia is seeking outright independence; Transnistria and South Ossetia have expressed a desire to join Russia, while Karabakh wants to join Armenia......

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SFANTU GHEORGHE, Romania — Dozens of wreaths trailing ribbons in red, white and green, the colors of the Hungarian flag, covered the base of a memorial to the 1848 revolution in the town park here on a recent day. Deep in the heart of Romania, just one lonely garland bears the country’s own blue, yellow and red banner.

New Year’s is celebrated twice here, first at the stroke of midnight and then an hour later, when it is midnight in Budapest. When Kosovo declared its independence from Serbia in February, hundreds of the town’s Hungarians took to the main square to demonstrate in favor of Kosovo, and by extension their own aspirations for autonomy.

A Hungarian minority group is pressing for greater autonomy in a region where its members outnumber Romanians. A new and more radical organization, the Hungarian Civic Party, has risen to challenge the establishment Hungarian party, which has been a member of each coalition government since 1996.

Those who argue that independence for Kosovo has set a bad precedent tend to talk about frozen conflicts outside the European Union — Abkhazia and South Ossetia, in Georgia, and Transnistria in Moldova. But even in the European Union, borders are often arbitrary. Many ethnic minorities, like the Basques and the Roma, remain stateless while others, like the Hungarians in Romania, as well as in Slovakia and Serbia, are still separated from their brethren.

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http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/07/wo...in&oref=slogin

ICG, 25 Sep 08: Kosovo's Fragile Transition

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....Kosovo is proving to be a difficult test for EU security and defence policy. The political will mustered before the February joint decision on the deployment of EULEX and a EUSR is dissipating. At a time when the EU is engaged in tough talks with Russia about the deployment of a new ESDP mission to Georgia, it would be dangerous to show lack of resolve so close to home.

The effects are not yet clear on Kosovo of recent events in Georgia, where Russia has cited western actions in Kosovo as part of its justification for unilaterally recognising the breakaway territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent. Moscow may be more ready than ever to demonstrate its blocking capacities in the UN and tempted to encourage territorial fragmentation in the EU’s backyard; or it may be more ready to show its cooperative side after having demonstrated its new and troubling self-confidence. There is more need than ever for the EU to muster a strong foreign and security policy in its immediate neighbourhood.....

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Berghof, 21 Sep 10: The KLA and the Kosovo War: From Intra-State Conflict to Independent Country

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As with other papaers in the Resistance/Liberation Movements and Transition to Politics series, this paper analyses the origins, development and post-war transformation of the Kosovo Liberation Army from the specific perspective of its members, who made the transition from opposing an oppressive state regime to participating in the construction of a new, more democratic system. In particular, it looks at commonalities between the KLA and other resistance/liberation movements across the globe, while also reflecting on distinct historical traits which make Kosovo’s transition to statehood quite unique and arguably unprecedented.

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