Defending Scandanavia (catch all)
Over the past decade, Finland has developed closer ties to the EU, NATO and the US in things military. It has always been close to the US in other ways - e.g., the largest population group of Finnish ancestry outside of Finland are US nationals (including JMM from his mother's side).
This is a longer backgrounder, followed by a short question.
The largest single military purchase in Finland's history was that of 64 F-18s, which are about to be updated (the second largest Finnish defense expenduture). While there are disputes about the exact cost of the update, no question that it will be done.
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HELSINGIN SANOMAT
INTERNATIONAL EDITION - HOME
3.10.2008
....
Ministry denies Air Force’s price estimate for upgrading its Hornet fighter jets.
Price of conversion of interceptors into assault fighters clarified to MPs.
The Ministry of Defence has declared incorrect the information, carried by Helsingin Sanomat and others on Thursday, according to which the modernisation programme of the Air Force F/A-18 Hornets and turning them into assault fighters would come with a price tag of EUR 1.6 billion. ...
http://www.hs.fi/english/article/Min.../1135239940183
and, the article prior
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HELSINGIN SANOMAT
INTERNATIONAL EDITION - HOME
2.10.2008
.....
Mid-Life update of Hornets is second-largest weapons deal in Finnish military history.
Planes that cost EUR 3 billion to buy will be upgraded for EUR 1.6 billion.
The Finnish Air Force is starting the second phase of the renewal programme of its F/A-18 Hornet fighter jets. The aim is to secure the usability of the aircraft introduced in Finland in 1995 past the year 2020 and to equip the planes for their original purpose.
“The Hornet was designed to be a strike fighter jet that would fight its way to the target, deliver the payload, and fight its way back”, explains Air Force commander Major-General Jarmo Lindberg.
So far the aircraft have only been used as interceptors against aerial targets, which is the sole role the Finnish Air Force planes have been deployed in since the Second World War. Now the Hornets are to be converted into assault fighters as well, by equipping them with bombs, glide bombs, and air-to-ground missiles. ...
http://www.hs.fi/english/article/Mid.../1135239907228
Both articles provide more information about the Finnish Hornet program.
Presently, an issue exists as to sourcing of the air-to-ground missiles.
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HELSINGIN SANOMAT
INTERNATIONAL EDITION - FOREIGN
5.2.2007
....
US refuses to sell air-to-ground missiles for Finland’s Hornet jets
Officials in the Untied States have rejected a preliminary request by Finland to buy JASSM air-to-ground missiles for the US-made Hornet F-18 jet fighters used by the Finnish Air Force. Finland inquired about the purchase last autumn as part of an extensive package aimed at implementing MLU2 - the second phase of the modernisation of the Air Force’s fleet of 62 jets. The Americans had no objections to Finnish requests in other respects. Finland will thus be allowed to buy missiles to attack radar stations, as well as NATO-standard Link 16 data exchange devices.
http://www.hs.fi/english/article/1135224850681
General background on the Finnish Hornet program over the last decade is here (all English).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finnish...ce#F-18_Hornet
http://www.ilmavoimat.fi/index_en.php?id=651
http://www.ilmavoimat.fi/index_en.php?id=742
There are also various MoD and Defense Forces papers which deal with the program, but which are not material to my question.
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Finland's Main Adversary is Russia, Russia, Russia. There is no other.
The Finnish assumption (worse case scenario) is that a Russian attack will have to be defensed by Finland alone. The defense strategy seems to have two components (not clearly stated as such in formal documents).
A conventional first stage would require Russia to deploy large conventional forces and sustain heavy casualties in order to win the first stage.
The second stage would be a total nation war which probably would result in the destruction of the Finnish people in Finland (the "Paasikivi doctrine"). About 70-80% of Finns agree with that strategy even though Finnish military success would be doubtful.
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My question is simply how long could the 62 Finnish Hornets stand up to Russian air power ? In short, is the expendure worth it, or could the Euros be better spent on other anti-Russian weapons ?
If there are any Hornet types (or anyone else knowledgeable) out there who would tackle this, your help would be appreciated.
Hey guys, thank you for the responses.
I realize that, however phrased, the question and answer is an "it depends". And, both of your responses address the concepts I was looking at - and better suggest the questions that should be asked.
I guess another related question is whether there has been any open-source "war gaming" re: "Russia attacks Finland". I haven't seen any, but probably do not know where to look.
The Winter-Continuation Wars were so long ago that they are not especially good precedents for the present. And, the Finns that would fight a present war are two or three generations removed from the warriors of that struggle - and have lived in a very peaceful environment.
BTW: While the Winter War ended in more or less of a stalemate, its end presaged the end of the Continuation War where Finland was within a few months of military collapse. See here (starting at post #7, with discussion in #8 - the rest is post-war politics),
http://finlander.eget.net/showthread...3900#post23900
I will think overnite ...
about some assertions made in the above two posts. Too late at nite to do it now.
I would agree with Stan if he was dealing with the rising cost of alcohol in Finland - a definite cause of concern to some (many ?) of my cousins. :)
Kiitos paljon - hyvää iltaa.
IIRC, that's only part of it; I believe the Finns
(some of them at any rate) are interested in contributing to 'out of area' missions. That's the same reason Sweden is upgrading their Gripens to be NATO compatible.
Many questions and some answers - part 1
These are good questions.
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from davidbfpo
What possible situation today would justify a Russian action against Finland?
Is the Finnish upgrade not just a bureaucratic / military proposal for a technological upgrade as the airframes get older?
There seems little question that Finnish-Russian relations have cooled, but there is certainly a divergence in how much. No one envisions a war tommorow; but, as was noted by David, we have "the unpredictable future".
Here are some sample opinions, the first from a broad survey of Finland's diplomats, the second from Finland's Foreign Minister and the third from Sweden's Foreign Minister.
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Diplomatic confessions
By Kari Huhta and Tanja Vasama
HELSINGIN SANOMAT
INTERNATIONAL EDITION - FOREIGN
7.10.2008 - THIS WEEK FEATURE ARTICLE
"I will not crouch into hushing things up, or slip into liturgy", one ambassador wrote at the beginning of his two pages of text - quoting the words of Minister for Foreign Affairs Alexander Stubb (Nat. Coalition Party).
Then the ambassador made a number of observations about Finland’s eastern neighbour.
"Russia can never earn the trust of its neighbours unless it produces an honest accounting of its past."
The ambassador continued that Russia does not pay heed to rules that had been agreed upon jointly with others. It yearns for the 19th century, while the EU is living in the 21st. It is building a fence and is protecting its security on both sides of that fence. When China started its Summer Olympics on August the 8th, Russia attacked Georgia.
"China invited the world for a visit, and Russia showed the world its middle finger." ....
http://www.hs.fi/english/article/Dip.../1135240031064
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HELSINGIN SANOMAT
INTERNATIONAL EDITION - FOREIGN
7.10.2008
Finnish-Russian relations under strain during OSCE Chairmanship
Cancelled military visits, complaints of Finnish decisions
The colder winds that have been blowing in relations between Russia and the West also extend to relations between Finland and Russia.
Russia has cancelled at least two visits by military officers since August, and the Russians have criticised Finnish actions during Finland’s turn holding the Chairmanship of the Organisation of Security and Cooperation in Europe. .....
http://www.hs.fi/english/article/Fin.../1135240029652
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HELSINGIN SANOMAT
INTERNATIONAL EDITION - FOREIGN
22.9.2008
Swedish Foreign Minister sees Russia moving away from European values
Carl Bildt sees reflections of 19th century attitudes in today’s Russia
“It takes two to tango. If Russia doesn’t want to dance, then the tango will be a bit awkward.”
This is how Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt describes relations between the European Union and Russia, which have been put to a major test by the crisis in the Caucasus.
Bildt, who took part in a European security seminar in Helsinki on Friday, told Helsingin Sanomat that the EU must reassess its policy toward Russia. While he expects cooperation to continue on a wide front, the changing winds affecting the European security environment are blowing specifically from Moscow. ....
http://www.hs.fi/english/article/Swe.../1135239631101
As to the second question, you will have to draw your own conclusions. The following references may help.
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Overall Defense Policies
Finnish Security and Defence Policy 2004
Government report 6/2004 ["White Paper"]
http://www.defmin.fi/files/311/2574_...er_2004_1_.pdf
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(pp.109-110)
5.2.3 The services
The Army
The Army must be able to defend Finland’s entire territory, protect vital targets, provide executive assistance to other authorities, and prevent and repel military attacks supported by the other services. Regional forces are used for surveillance of land areas, to protect the society’s vital infrastructure and to hold key areas. Invaders will be defeated by using operational forces that are deployable nationwide, supported by long-range fire. ..... Border troops will especially be used for reconnaissance, surveillance, special operations and counter-special force operations.
One might ask: And what invaders are to be expected - Karelian wolves attacking Saami reindeer herds ?
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(p.111)
From 2009 onwards, development of the Army will concentrate on ground-based air defence and on regional forces. Ground-based air defence in the capital region will be increased in efficiency. Regional forces’ capacity for rapid action to protect military targets, the capacity to provide executive assistance to other authorities, and the capacity to protect society’s vital functions will be improved. The capacity of the troops in the capital region to safeguard operating conditions for the national leadership and to safeguard vital functions of the society will be further upgraded.
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(p.112)
The Navy
....
Ground-based air defence of naval bases and coastal troops will be developed as part of the national ground-based air defence development programme.
One might ask: "ground-based air defence" against whom - Flying Karelian wolves, perhaps ?
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(p.114)
The Air Force
....
During the planning period special attention will be given to raising the performance of fighter defence and to the air defence command and control system. The performance of the Hornet fleet will be increased by mid-life updating, thus improving the system’s situational awareness, interception capacity and international interoperability. Performance of the Hornet fleet will also be enhanced with the gradual procurement of a long-range precision guided weapon system, permitting air-to-ground operations.
....
.... The Air Force’s ground-based air defence capability will be improved as part of the national ground-based air defence, focusing on the capacity to protect the most important bases.
The bottom line is that someone is very much concerned with someone else having air superiority.
The focus in 2004 for projected procurements in the future is graphed at p.115. The primary components are (approximately):
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C4ISR (command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance & recon) - 25%
Mobility, firepower & regional troops - 17½ %
Ground-based air defense in the capital region - 17½%
Air Force (primarily Mid-life Update II for F-18s) - 20%
The largest part of the remaining 20% is Navy (mine counter-measires).
In terms of national effort, the following is instructive:
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(p.124)
5.2.8 Developing voluntary defence
People’s interest in voluntary activities is a resource that promotes everyday security, preparedness for new threats and military defence readiness. The basic premise for this activity must be the needs of the society as well as the needs of the Defence Forces and voluntary organizations. Voluntary defence activities supporting military defence will be reorganized to facilitate collaboration between authorities at all levels. For this purpose, local defence troops will be formed, which will belong to the Defence Forces’ wartime forces. The Government will consider the necessity of a separate act on voluntary defence.
The concept of a national defense is contained in a number of other documents (as well as expressed in the White Paper).
The overall plan meets not only an invasion by Nation X, but also other contingencies (terrorists, WMD attacks, epidemics, etc.). So, it is very correct to say that Finland's security policies include many contingencies - most are much less malignant than an invasion.
But, it is difficult for me to see how F-18s fit into those contingencies (terrorists, WMD attacks, epidemics, etc.). I do see how they would meet the invasion problem in part.
Many questions and some answers - part 2
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Hawk Training for F-18 Pilots
A description of, and projected future options for, the Finnish program to train its F-18 pilots is in a summary of a larger classified study.
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KAUHAVA WORKING GROUP
A working group investigating the potential for setting up
a common European flight training center at Kauhava
SUMMARY OF THE FINAL REPORT 16 May 2006
http://www.defmin.fi/files/652/Kauhava_eng-nettiin.pdf
After basic flight training, the pilots move on to Hawk training at Kauhava (home of puukot manufacturer Iisakki Järvenpää). The multi-phased program is graphiced at pp. 6-7 of the report. I am not competent to judge how good this training is. Others are obviously free to comment.
The official view of the Finnish Hornets is found in the article "The Hornet’s ten years in service". The article notes the two-phased upgrade program; and formation of a special international unit of 4 F-18s, with the balance committed to territorial defense.
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During the intended 30-year life cycle of the Hornet the Air Force will undertake two upgrades to maintain its capabilities up-to-date and to ensure that functional and structural lifespan requirements will be met. The first of these will take place during 2007 and 2008. The second upgrade, planned for incorporation between 2012 and 2014, will include a study of giving the aircraft air-to-ground capability, among other matters.
...
As laid down in a Government report of 2004, the Air Force is developing a rapid reaction F-18 unit capable of undertaking combined crisis management operations. This four-aircraft unit will be provided with means to operate as part of a multinational detachment and in this way achieve the objectives of missions, the scope of which will be respectively widened. The goal of the preparation work is set at achieving operational capability towards the close of this decade. Training and flight operations related requirements have for the most part been met already, while the building of the unit’s technical support and organisation to match the required schedule is underway.
http://www.ilmavoimat.fi/index_en.php?id=651
From the official view, the F-18 project has been a great success - so, many thanks (kiitos paljon) to all those involved:
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(from above url)
The project turned into a success story
The Air Force commander-in-chief, Major General Heikki Lyytinen expressed his thanks to all personnel involved in the running of the project in a speech that he delivered in the occasion. The project was a success story that was completed ahead of schedule and on budget.
- The final decision to purchase the aircraft made the Finnish Air Force to embark in the most intensive training programme in its history. 150 aircraft maintainers and 15 pilots were trained in the United States. The lessons they learned were subsequently modified to be compatible with the respective Finnish systems.
Lyytinen explained how the arrival of the Hornet brought along major changes in the Air Force’s operations, know-how and capabilities. Its sophisticated technology changed mission preparation procedures, and more importantly, post-flight debriefings and mission analyses. The effectiveness of training was boosted, and avenues opened for the developments of tactical doctrines.
According to Lyytinen, the Hornet has met the Air Force’s expectations as an efficacious and pilot-friendly fighter. The transition into the new era has therefore gone as planned, and the Air Force has established a good operational capability. Experiences obtained during various exercises have shown that this capability is also appreciated internationally.
- As for its flight characteristics and performance the Hornet remains a top-class fighter. The aircraft also has potential for further developments and enhancement of its performance.
Enhancement of capability is the story of the two-phase upgrade process. The official view of that is found in the article "More Capability to the Hornet"
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Development of the Hornet
MLU 1 of the Hornet will take place by the end of this decade. The capabilities of the fighter will be enhanced by new air-to-air missiles and the JHMCS associated with the upgrade of the software. Engagement range will be increased by introducing long-range missiles. The fighter’s close-in combat capabilities and the deterrent effect will be also improved.
The objective is to achieve a better exchange ratio in case of a fighter getting unexpectedly involved in close combat due to identification problems or depletion of radar missiles. Situational awareness can be increased by enabling the transmission of air picture even under jamming or interference.
MLU 2, the last upgrade according to the present plans, is scheduled to be implemented at the beginning of the next decade. It includes, among other things, the improvement of the electronic countermeasures suites and, possibly, the procurement of new air-to-air missiles. To increase situational awareness the Hornet will be equipped with new warning systems and upgraded communications and identification systems compatible with those of other nations. The structural lifespan of the aircraft will be ensured up to the planned withdrawal from service of the aircraft.
http://www.ilmavoimat.fi/index_en.php?id=742
The air-to-ground missile enhancement has been discussed above in the OP.
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Based on the suggestions stated in responses, the questions seem to be these:
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1. How much would it cost the Russians in men and materiel (aircraft) to overwhelm the Finnish Hornets ?
2. Would the Russians be willing to make that expenditure of men and materiel (aircraft) ?
3. Is there any other weapon system that could force a higher cost to the Russians for the same expenditure ?
4. Do the Russians have capabilities in the Leningrad Military District to accomplish # 1 ?
5. If not, what would be required from other districts or their strategic reserve to accomplish # 1 ?
6. Is Finnish training and tactics adequate for the mission (deterrence of Russians by requiring an expenditure in excess of Russian resolve, #2) ?
7. Will the Finnish Hornets (with projected upgrade II) and C4ISR upgrade be adequate for the same mission ?
8. How essential is full air-to-ground missile capability to the same mission ?
Kiitos paljon to all who have responded.
Hyvää päivää.
Finnish Surface-Air Update - NATO compatible
An upgrade to the Finnish air defense system has been long scheduled. Seems that FDF has scrapped upgrading the present Russian-made system and leans toward either of two NATO compatible systems.
A factor may be flexibility (the NASAMS missile can be used by the Hornets)vs. range (25k vs 100k), as outlined by Sanomat here.
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HELSINGIN SANOMAT
INTERNATIONAL EDITION - HOME
16.1.2009
Government plans to replace Russian anti-aircraft missiles with NATO version
Finland’s air defences are to be upgraded with a missile system used by NATO countries to replace a Russian-built system. A formal decision on the matter is expected early this year.
Helsingin Sanomat has learned that the price tag of the new system could be about EUR 400 million.
....
The aim is to replace the Russian-built Buk or "Gadfly" system with either a Norwegian or a French-Italian system as of 2012.
....
The Norwegian missile which is under consideration could also be used by the Hornet jet fighters of the Finnish Air Force. It has a range of 25 kilometres, whereas the Buk can reach targets 35 kilometres away. The range of the French-Italian candidate is 100 kilometres.
Some background on NASAMS (Wiki), AIM-120 AMRAAM (Wiki), NASAMS (manufacturer) and SL-AMRAAM (manufacturer).
Ref to French-Italian SAMP/T (Wiki).
Sweden deploys troops over underwater threat
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Sweden deploys troops over underwater threat
Published: 17 Oct 2014 17:44 GMT+02:00
Updated: 18 Oct 2014 09:30 GMT+02:00
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UPDATED: Sweden's military has deployed planes and ships in the Stockholm Archipelago against what it says is a foreign threat in the waters, with the size of the operation unchanged overnight.
Ring was however also keen to avoid connecting the incident to Russia, saying
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too little was known for now to allow an in-depth analysis. In recent months, Sweden has seen an uptick in Baltic Sea manoeuvres by the Russian air force -- including an incident in September when two SU24 fighter-bombers allegedly entered Swedish airspace in what then Foreign Minister Carl Bildt called "the most serious aerial incursion by the Russians" in almost a decade.
Sweden lodged a formal protest after the alleged incursion.
"As the government has said, the situation has deteriorated in the Baltic Sea," Wikstrm said on Friday.
Russian submarine activity around Sweden became a major cause of concern during the Cold War. The most famous of these was the submarine U137 which ran aground in a secret Swedish submarine lane in Blekinge, southern Sweden, in 1981, causing a major diplomatic crisis.
http://www.thelocal.se/20141017/swed...-off-stockholm
It seems that Gordon McCormick, author of famous COIN formula "Magic diamond", has studied Swedish problem in 1990.
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"Stranger Than Fiction. Soviet Submarine Operations in Swedish Waters"
http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand...2007/R3776.pdf
How Norway is Transforming its Armed Forces
Thanks to a "lurker" for the pointer to this article:https://www.thecipherbrief.com/artic...MJjx9Y.twitter
