These are the reasons why China could attack
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Dayuhan
China's financing of the deficit is not the bogeyman it's made out to be, for a variety of reasons.
I do not at all agree that the US is more dependent on China than the other way around, especially in wartime. The Chinese are sitting on a social volcano of enormous proportions: the income disparities among regions and social classes are staggering and the information flow has irreversibly opened. The aspirations are there and rising and they have to be met. It's as if they have the capitalist genie half out of the bottle. It won't go in and it remains to be seen whether they can get it all the way out.
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In any event the Chinese have no incentive whatsoever to fight the Americans or anyone else: the current order is quite conducive to their interests. The danger, of course, is that the recession that China will someday experience will generate major political instability and produce a reactionary and aggressive government. Not imminent, but not unimaginable.
Dayuhan-
I agree - it is unlikely that China will attack. BUt the very social instability you refer to could end up being the cause. If the economy goes downhill, and social unrest rises, the PLA could end up blaming it on capitalism/the West and use that as rationale to attack. It's a classic tactic of repressive governments to focus on external enemies to distract the public from internal problems.
V/R,
Cliff
Don't think it would be intentional...
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Fuchs
Any example of a modern nation going into a full-scale war voluntarily in tumultuous times?
My point was that regimes may become loudmouths to rally their subjects in order to counter domestic troubles, but they don't go voluntarily into a full-scale war in such a situation.
Fuchs-
Agree. The fear here though is that the PLA leadership will either miscalculate US response due to lack of understanding (not a lot of mil to mil contacts so not a lot of familiarity) or possibly mirror imaging. Another possibility is their overestimating their own position... if you read their literature there has been a distinct swing in their confidence over the last 2-3 years.
Like I said before, I think it's unlikely, but that doesn't mean we don't need to prepare for it.
V/R,
Cliff