Ukraine: military (Aug '14 to mid-June '15) closed

Seems to be a purge going on in the motherland these days---18 top military officers and government officials have been "let go".

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...s-9659120.html


So AP ----a result of 1) the failure of the irregulars in eastern Ukraine, 2) a result of under estimating western sanctions or 3) hardliners not being hard enough---pick one---will bet none of them would have ever negotiated.

Or none of the above and Putin desperately trying to signal the west he wants an off ramp? Since out of the 4.5 million Russians in the "New Russia" only 1.5K joined the irregulars well so much for the vaulted ethnic Russian minority in the Ukraine fighting for their not Russian "independence".

AP---you need to finally bury your negotiations concept---this is a perfect example of what is being fed to the Russian population 24X7 since actually before the Crimea.

http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/08/1...-soviet-union/

And you really think Putin is going to negotiate when his own population blames the west and the Ukraine and give him this week even higher poll numbers.

A snow balls chance in the after life of him negotiating over the "New Russia" that he himself called into existence in several of his key speeches if it means him losing face and his mercenaries laying down their arms as that signals a military defeat and Russia cannot under Putin suffer a military defeat.

Dayuhan--you asked for what red lines have been crossed---Google the Helsinki Accords and reread them in detail and then state whether you think the former Soviet Union now Russia is in violation of the Helsinki Accords which laid down even for the SU Communist Party certain standards for both the East and West.

You will notice that Putin and company have attempted for the last decade to undermine the Helsinki Accords.

Then ask yourself why he is undermining them just at this time ie the Crimea and eastern Ukraine and then ask yourself does the current Putin Doctrine of "World Russia" meaning Russia can effectively enter any country they feel is mistreating Russians ---is it in fact a direct challenge to the Accords.

Once you work your way through the Accords---really read them then I will show you the next line that was crossed.

We will go baby step through baby step so the line crossings become extremely clear as many commenting here seem to have not noticed them for some strange reason.

Dayuhan--you made a recent remark that you doubted the SBU suggestion that the MH17 was a Russian False Flag operation that went sideways as doubtful.

I linked you to a blogger who was the lead blogger using OSINT to prove the use of the Buk by the mercenaries as well as the potential launch site which was then used by US intelligence for a global briefing.

That same blogger has now attempted to prove and or disprove the new SBU accusations that Russia wanted to shot down an areoflot airliner and simply missed and he tended to come to the result that it was in fact highly possible and needed more info from the SBU to be provided ie voice intercepts and or photos for geo tagging.

He then placed the direct challenge to who he calls "the Trolls" (Russian bloggers supporting Putin) and who we might suggest mirhond as an example from our own experience to disprove his analysis.

And presto several bit hard and now he is taking their arguments apart again using only OSINT.

Well worth watching the ongoing exchange as an example of Russian blogger "trolls" at work to disprove Russian involvement in MH17.

http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl/

Dayuhan--when we talk about Russian false flag operations do not forget for a moment what the FSB did in order to give Russia an reason to invade Chechnya---check Google on the four apartment buildings that were blow up killing over 300--history is now saying Russia blew up the buildings---so shooting down an airliner and using it to give one an excuse--- remember I pointed you towards the Russian emphasis on "legality"---to "legally" cross into the Ukraine.

Again remember just how many civilian Chechens were killed in the two invasions over 10K and now Russia argues to the entire world hey 1.7K have been killed in eastern Ukraine (notice they never talk about Russian mercenaries fighting there to the tune of over 10K using heavy weapons driven across that supposedly "secured border" that Putin held a press conference on it?)--that is a humanitarian disaster so hey we had "legal" rights to bring in humanitarian supplies since they are our fellow Russians that we must take care of---remember they have in the past brought in such aid to Donetsk making a big video announcement about it---what they did not show where three trucks carrying weapons, and munitions as well as SAMs that were part of that convoy.

False flag operations are a key corner stone of Russian politics since the 30s.

Russia is still trying to do the "humanitarian" invasion thing regardless of western warnings that such movements are in fact illegal because all necessary NGOs and the IRC are already inside the Ukraine.


http://theweek.com/article/index/266...itarian-crisis

Here is the Russian FM's comments concerning the "humanitarian assistance"----notice they mentioned that they "received the US comments"--that is an interesting comment from the FM so they were in fact going to move an "humanitarian invasion" the across the border into the Ukraine and the US call "seemed" to bring the convoy to a halt.

http://en.ria.ru/politics/20140810/1...n-Eastern.html

Seems like the US has moved to a more forceful spoken English language set of words--whatever was said did make it into Putin's head.

What is interesting is that the current leader of the DNR at first was voicing the claim of major humanitarian problems and "wanted a ceasefire" and when he heard the Ukrainian militay response was "white flag and lay down your weapons" he no longer called for "humanitarian assistance".

While Russia in this link slams the Ukraine for not holding to the Geneva Agreements Russia "seemed" to forget that part of that agreement was the mercenaries laying down their arms and leaving all occupied buildings--and that is also what they signed as well.

Russia has a short memory on what it signs these days but that is part of their cognitive dissonance.

What is more interesting is the press release that Interfax placed on the same topic---notice the difference in press releases.

http://www.interfax.com/newsinf.asp?id=527435

Quote:

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Originally Posted by davidbfpo

JMA posted and cited in part:

When was this period of moral 'good'?

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So you too misquote me.

I said:

Quote:

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... the moral stature of a super power acting for the 'good'.

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There is no doubt the US can take credit and the kudos for bringing Soviet Russia to its knees. That was good for the world as a whole. that good work done the yanks then went soft on Russia and failed to take the necessary action to make sure that Russia would never again be able to threaten neighbouring states and nations. This represents yet another US foreign policy failure.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by JMA

So you too misquote me.

I said:



There is no doubt the US can take credit and the kudos for bringing Soviet Russia to its knees. That was good for the world as a whole. that good work done the yanks then went soft on Russia and failed to take the necessary action to make sure that Russia would never again be able to threaten neighbouring states and nations. This represents yet another US foreign policy failure.

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JMA---notice the Russian FM comments on "receiving the US call" concerning the "humanitarian convoy" that was not an "invasion force" from my previous link.

Cryptic was all one can say about his comment--would have been interesting to have learned what the US told Russia on that call? Word has it that just minutes after the US called the Russians informed the US that the convoy had indeed stopped.

Secondly, I for one believe the reason for the collapse of the Soviet Union was the price of Russian sour crude collapsing under pressure of the KSA that opened the flow of sour crude and drove the price down for a long period thus denying Russian an extremely large amount of cash flow that they had planned for their internal budget.

Thus the SU collapse---now what is interesting is who together with the KSA thought up that pricing maneuver?

For those that speak German---this link confirms the hardness of the US call placed to Putin indicating that the "humanitarian invasion" bluff was off the table.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/auslan...-a-985353.html

Appears both Germany and the US coordinated the response which is as follows: crossing into the Ukraine under the supposedly guise of "a needed humanitarian operation under control of Russian troops" is a red line that cannot be crossed and Germany followed up that message when Merkel evidently called as well.

I appears that the argument by both the Russian mercenaries and the Russians that the humanitarian conditions in both the surrounded cities is a disaster meaning no food, medical supplies, eater or electricity has been disproved by a number of videos have come out today depicting full food store shelves and from residents that state yes there is water and electricity off and on but in general it still works.

So the Russian bluff has been called by the Ukrainians---now will be interesting to see how Putin responds as his mercenaries are actually losing.

Looks like the "humanitarian assistance" bluff did not work so now we have the false flag artillery strikes into the Rostov area from areas generally being held by Russian irregulars and Russian GRU/SF troops.

http://en.ria.ru/world/20140810/1918...ov-Region.html

Concerning the Russian infowar---at the early outset of the infowar the Ukrainians released a chart depicting the connections between the various media companies/agencies, individuals and bloggers that were being used to spread info war materials. I posted that chart here early on.

What surprised me was an indication that an organization created by Ron Paul was being mentioned in the chart--- so I took it with a grain of salt.

But then this cropped up today in the US media questioning the information being released by the US alluding to the US not providing the "real truth about MH17" much in the same tones as what has been coming out of Moscow and Interfax/RIA. He had mentioned early on a similar statement which if one understands how the info war works certain messaging is being released on a steady basis.

So the chart might have been in fact correct as to who the global Russian info war players are.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/0...usaolp00000592

Pravda.ru claims that rebels ambushed American instructors in Ukraine :eek:

http://translate.google.be/translate...24%26bih%3D425

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09

Dayuhan--you asked for what red lines have been crossed

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I asked which specific red line you wish to link to your proposed economic threat.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09

False flag operations are a key corner stone of Russian politics since the 30s.

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I know. I don't doubt for a moment that the Russians would use a false flag operation if they thought the circumstances called for it and if they thought they could get away with it. I just doubt that this case was one of them. There's just too much evidence - much of it posted by you - suggesting that the separatists believed they were shooting at a Ukrainian military plane. Why would a separatist leader gloat over the shooting with all that "we warned you not to fly in our skies" stuff if the target was an Aeroflot plane and the intention was to blame it on the Ukrainians?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09

JMA---notice the Russian FM comments on "receiving the US call" concerning the "humanitarian convoy" that was not an "invasion force" from my previous link.

Cryptic was all one can say about his comment--would have been interesting to have learned what the US told Russia on that call? Word has it that just minutes after the US called the Russians informed the US that the convoy had indeed stopped.

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If a mere phone call from the US can force the Russians to abort a plan, they must be seriously running scared, and whatever the US is doing must be working.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09

Secondly, I for one believe the reason for the collapse of the Soviet Union was the price of Russian sour crude collapsing under pressure of the KSA that opened the flow of sour crude and drove the price down for a long period thus denying Russian an extremely large amount of cash flow that they had planned for their internal budget.

Thus the SU collapse---now what is interesting is who together with the KSA thought up that pricing maneuver?

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The oil glut and the price crash were certainly a major cause of the Soviet collapse, but nobody "thought it up". If you look at the data it wasn't just the KSA that increased production: almost all producers did. The price started dropping, and producers pumped more to try to cover their budgets, depressing the price further. OPEC tried to stop it by tightening quotas, but the quotas were ignored, across the board. Classic case of short-term thinking and distrust for other members of the cartel: the interests of all would have been best served if everybody had cut production to support the price, but nobody trusted the others to follow their quotas and nobody wanted to be the fool who cut production and then got shot down by the combination of low production and a lower price.

The oil glut was catastrophic for all producers, including the Saudis; I don't think there's a serious oil analyst anywhere who believes that it was deliberately contrived as a weapon.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09

Russia is still trying to do the "humanitarian" invasion thing regardless of western warnings that such movements are in fact illegal because all necessary NGOs and the IRC are already inside the Ukraine.

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Who will stop them?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dayuhan

I asked which specific red line you wish to link to your proposed economic threat.



I know. I don't doubt for a moment that the Russians would use a false flag operation if they thought the circumstances called for it and if they thought they could get away with it. I just doubt that this case was one of them. There's just too much evidence - much of it posted by you - suggesting that the separatists believed they were shooting at a Ukrainian military plane. Why would a separatist leader gloat over the shooting with all that "we warned you not to fly in our skies" stuff if the target was an Aeroflot plane and the intention was to blame it on the Ukrainians?

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See Dayuhan another reason that often when tearing comments apart one tends to overlook links that one is pointed towards.

Ukraine@war.blogspot.nl

One of the best open source analysis blogs I have seen on the Buk and the launch site. He and his work was used by the US government for their intl briefings as it was virtually the same style of work as done by an intel analyst.

He did the workup on the SBU new theory of the false flag and came to the opinion it made sense with the notice that there needed to be released by the SBU the alleged voice intercepts which they did by the way just after the shot down of the missile crew and potential photos which could be geo tagged.

He then invited "trolls" to challenge him and one did and failed badly.

That was the link I provided you and if you had worked your way through it this question would have been answered.

Having worked the intel world a long while in my career---when someone uses the term "makes sense" than pay attention---I had an old German WW2 intel officer mentor from the German Army Gehlen Intel Group when I started back in 70 who told me the human is capable of anything and if it makes sense to you believe him.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by JMA

Who will stop them?

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JMA---would have agreed with you but the RIA comments by the Russian FM seems to indicate that something was said by the US and backed up by Germany that led to a 50 vehicle "humanitarian" protected by Russian Airborne/SF armor to come to a sudden halt meters from the border.

He simply stated "we got the comment" but did not go further into it.

So something was said in a manner that halted a moving convoy within minutes into the conversation as the US was informed during the conversation the convoy had halted.

Putin had to have been totally informed as a previous Interfax release earlier during the same day indicated he was handling the "humanitarian efforts" personally.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dayuhan

If a mere phone call from the US can force the Russians to abort a plan, they must be seriously running scared, and whatever the US is doing must be working.

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And Dayuhan why was there a common word used during that period "oil cartel" and it was being led by the KSA so what motivated the KSA to flood the market if pricing went lower which would cut into their earnings as well?

Think it though and ask the question why?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09

And Dayuhan why was there a common word used during that period "oil cartel" and it was being led by the KSA so what motivated the KSA to flood the market if pricing went lower which would cut into their earnings as well?

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I just explained that; possibly it wasn't clear.

Nobody really "led" OPEC at that point, because OPEC effectively collapsed. Its production quotas, its only tools for supporting the price, were voluntary and when countries ceased to follow them, the cartel lost all power.

What has to be understood is that this process started slowly. When prices dropped slightly, oil producers pumped more because their political masters wanted the money. When prices dropped a little more, they pumped even more, because the political masters still wanted more money.

If they were thinking long term and if they trusted each other, they could have all decided to cut back production and forced the price back up. They weren't thinking long term, and they didn't trust each other, so they didn't do that. They acted to bail themselves out in the short run, by pumping more and selling more. Once the spiral started they couldn't break out of it, largely because they didn't trust each other enough to cooperate.

As a result the US had a 10 year cheap oil joyride, the Soviet Union went broke, and oil producers everywhere had a very miserable decade, very much including the Saudis.

This has been picked apart in near infinite detail by oil industry analysts, and I don't know of anyone in that community who buys into the idea that the oil glut was intentionally contrived as a weapon. It had a lot to do with chaos, suspicion, and mistrust, not much to do with conspiracy.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09

That was the link I provided you and if you had worked your way through it this question would have been answered.

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I did look at the link. The trolls are very crude, but the blogger doesn't do much better. Someone asked:

Quote:

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the rebel leader wouldn't have known it was BUK and wouldn't have bragged to half DNR on the phone about it.

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The blogger responds:

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That was PART of the plan... them bragging about it. It would whitewash Russia.

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That makes no sense at all... how would a Russian proxy bragging about shooting down a Russian plane "whitewash Russia"? It would do the opposite: Russia would look at least indirectly responsible. If the purpose was to blame the Ukrainian forces for shooting down a Russian plane, the bragging and gloating are completely incompatible with the plan... and why would Russia want to make the separatists look responsible?

The immediate post-shootdown gloating from the separatists is very well established, and it doesn't fit with the false flag conspiracy theories at all.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dayuhan

I just explained that; possibly it wasn't clear.

Nobody really "led" OPEC at that point, because OPEC effectively collapsed. Its production quotas, its only tools for supporting the price, were voluntary and when countries ceased to follow them, the cartel lost all power.

What has to be understood is that this process started slowly. When prices dropped slightly, oil producers pumped more because their political masters wanted the money. When prices dropped a little more, they pumped even more, because the political masters still wanted more money.

If they were thinking long term and if they trusted each other, they could have all decided to cut back production and forced the price back up. They weren't thinking long term, and they didn't trust each other, so they didn't do that. They acted to bail themselves out in the short run, by pumping more and selling more. Once the spiral started they couldn't break out of it, largely because they didn't trust each other enough to cooperate.

As a result the US had a 10 year cheap oil joyride, the Soviet Union went broke, and oil producers everywhere had a very miserable decade, very much including the Saudis.

This has been picked apart in near infinite detail by oil industry analysts, and I don't know of anyone in that community who buys into the idea that the oil glut was intentionally contrived as a weapon. It had a lot to do with chaos, suspicion, and mistrust, not much to do with conspiracy.

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Really Dayuhan you are still stating the KSA does not "guide nor influence" OPEC---even in times of overproduction which if you really do look at the numbers from that period-- then why did the two major producers of sour crude the exact same quality as that which comes out of the Urals overproduce?

Why would anyone cut their income deliberately via overproduction if that is what you are saying ---it was general overall overproduction that caused the low income earnings. The OPEC is smart enough to fully understand overproduction in a normal demand market does not lead to a great cash flow--so again why did they over produce?

Ask the question again why was there an over production strictly in sour crude when the refineries of the west could not handle the volume that was being offerred?

Ask the question again why did the market dip when the US made their recent sells of sour crude when in fact the general product sour crude was running fairly stable---why the price dip which exactly matched the US sales period of their reserve sour crude?

You really need to start asking the question why---until you fill in the why answer in ---all other questions such as who what when where and how jet unanswered into space---answer the why and then the answers to the above questions make sense.