The End of American Support for Syrian Rebels Was Inevitable
By Faysal Itani at DefenseOne
Introduction:
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Where the insurgency is concerned, Trump and Obama have plenty in common.
This week, the Trump administration reportedly cancelled a long-running covert program to support vetted Syrian rebels in the war against the regime of Bashar al-Assad. While this move has provoked a small outcry among Assad’s opponents, the development itself is far from surprising. Furthermore, it is incorrect, as some have insisted, to view the cancellation as a gratuitous concession to Russia—adecision like this, which aligns with years of deliberate U.S. strategy and Trump’sown stated goals, cannot be considered a concession. It is almost certainly true that Trump hopes this decision will make Russia more cooperative on ceasefires between the regime and the insurgency. But if that does not happen or if it fails to pacify Syria—a likely outcome—this would not alter an already-dismal strategic situation for the Syrian opposition, one that may well be acceptable to the United States.
The Trump administration’s decision to end this program represents the logical endpoint of years of evolution in U.S. policy. While the effort was conceived under Barack Obama, it was always at odds with America’s broader goals—a tension that Trump has long recognized and is now acting upon.
Khan Sheikhoun Sarin: update
The April 2017 Sarin CW attack on Khan Sheikhoun features in sixty posts on the Forum, mainly in the Syrian threads and the Russian Info Ops thread.
Thanks to a "lurker" for the pointer to commentary by Eliot Higgins @ Bellingcat, which starts with:
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Following the July 4th, 2017 publication of the
OPCW fact-finding mission (FFM) report on the April 4th, 2017 Khan Sheikhoun Sarin attack in Syria, questions were raised about claims made by the veteran journalist Seymour Hersh in his June 25th, 2017 article in
Welt, “
Trump‘s Red Line“. The OPCW FFM report
flatly contradicted claims made in Hersh’s article, namely how a Syrian SU-24 supposedly fired a precision-guided munition at a Jihadi command and control center in the north of Khan Sheikhoun, with the resulting explosion inadvertently releasing toxic gases from “medicines and chlorine-based decontaminants” stored in the basement of the building, along with unspecified weapons and munitions.
Hersh’s claim contradicted the OPCW FFM report, which stated that Sarin had been detected in environmental samples and in tests on the victims of the attack. Not only that, but Hersh’s reporting also contradicted
claims made by the US, French, Syrian, and Russian governments.
Link:https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena...ite-know-move/
Report: 4 US-backed Syrian rebels defect to government
By: Bassem Mroue, The Associated Press
http://www.militarytimes.com/flashpo...to-government/
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BEIRUT — A small number of U.S.-backed rebels have defected and joined government forces south of the country days after the U.S. announced an end to a CIA program that backed opposition fighters, Syrian opposition activists said Saturday.
The defection of at least four rebels came after The Washington Post reported that the White House has decided to halt the CIA supply-and-equip program for Syrian rebels.
U.S. President Donald Trump essentially confirmed the existence of the program and its cancellation Monday night when he lashed out at The Washington Post. The president tweeted that the newspaper “fabricated the facts on my ending massive, dangerous, and wasteful payments to Syrian rebels fighting (Syrian President Bashar) Assad.”
The defection also came as Col. Ryan Dillon, the spokesman for the U.S.-led coalition fighting the Islamic State group, told CNN this week that “the coalition supports only those forces committed to fighting” the Islamic State group...
Who has what in Iraq & Syria
From the NYT series of graphics on the rise and fall of ISIS, a map showing the position October 2015 to October 2017.
https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphic...5-2017-460.png
There are other graphics. Link:https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...and-back.html?
From the BBC a map showing who has what; from IHS Conflict Monitor:https://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/624/...6x9_map-nc.png
Link (part of a wider article):http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-41679377
Who will govern and who will rebuild Raqqa?
An ICSR commentary that was republished by CNN, which raises many more questions too. Personally I cannot see anyone volunteering the funding and more to rebuild Raqqa or anywhere else in Syria. I exclude those supporting the Bashir Assad regime.
Link:http://edition.cnn.com/2017/10/18/op...ion/index.html
Qatar Confesses Secrets Behind Syrian War
I offer this article for readers to assess themselves. It comes from a previously unheard of news website, which on my second reading maybe pro-Assad. It starts with:
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A television interview of a top Qatari official confessing the truth behind the origins of the war in Syria is going viral across Arabic social media during the same week a
leaked top secret NSA document was published which confirms that the armed opposition in Syria was under the direct command of foreign governments from the early years of the conflict.
Link:http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-1...ind-syrian-war
I asked a SME to have a peek and they responded:
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I am a bit skeptical. Lots of Saudi vs Qatar disinformation going on at present. This seems part of that. Weird that the Arabic is unheard, and the translation does not mesh entirely with the claims in the article made on the basis of the same video.