Afghanistan: What is it ?/ What is it not?
It has has contested here several times that Afghanistan is not an insurgency. Sounded to me like a great topic for discussion.
It seems if you are describing something inaccurately, then its likely the other qualities you ascribe to it may also be wrong (or that if you got them right for the wrong reasons you still may be bad off). If you decide this "something" is something you have to interact with, or becomes the object of a policy or military objective, then misunderstanding it, and misunderstanding its environment may lead you to the wrong approach.
So what is an insurgency?
Here are three sources and four definitions for insurgency:
JP 1-02: an organized movement aimed at the overthrow of a constituted government through the use of subversion and armed conflict
Merriam-Webster Online dictionary
Pronunciation:
\-jənt\
Function:
noun
Etymology:
Latin insurgent-, insurgens, present participle of insurgere to rise up, from in- + surgere to rise — more at surge
Date:
1765
1: a person who revolts against civil authority or an established government ; especially : a rebel not recognized as a belligerent2: one who acts contrary to the policies and decisions of one's own political party
Wikipedia:
An insurgency is a violent internal uprising against a sovereign government that lacks the organization of a revolution. Its definition is similar to that of "resistance," but has different connotations. Usage of the term varies widely, and is highly subjective.
None of those would seem to accurately describe the situation in Afghanistan. You might be able to shoe horn it into the Wikipedia one, but to do so might leave you assuming that either it is the Karzai government (I do not necessarily mean the idea of a centralized authority) that is the principal reason for armed resistance, or that there is some overarching counter political theme or body which has united those who oppose it.
If its not an insurgency, then can the belligerents by typified as insurgents?
If they are not insurgents, then what are they? Could they be a range of things? Does it matter and why?
Does the possibility exist that while possibly not being an insurgency, it could become one? What would it take, and do we think there are those trying to make it one -e.g. is the Taliban attempting to build a political movement in the remote areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan for the purpose of challenging one or both of those governments? How do we know?
If its not an insurgency, then do counter-insurgency principals apply (some or all), and will COIN TTP (some or all) work? If so, which?
What about the situation is like an insurgency, and what is unlike an insurgency? What COIN thinking can be adapted to work, and what cannot?
We may have imposed self constraints on our ability to discuss this by putting qualifiers like global onto so many things, i.e. terror, guerrillas and insurgency. There is a danger in that because we tend to infer like properties on things and group them due to geography, religion, culture & language, association by timing or event, recent experiences, etc. rather then consider them as unique and distinct. Its a natural tendency that should be resisted because it facilitates bias. I'm involved in a couple of other projects where the out of hand COAs were based on assumptions that were only applicable elsewhere. We've got to be careful less we wind up solving exactly the wrong problem(s).
Best, Rob
People on the ground are calling it an insurgency
After a long hiatus from this blog site I have returned with hopefully something worth contributing. I just recently returned from Afghanistan and the commander of the CJSOTF calls his fight there an insurgency. Granted, the question of Karazai's legitimacy are valid arguments and I would agree that both the Taliban and even some members of the 'coalition' do not view him as anything more than the Mayor of Kabul. However, I do believe it is the intent of the Taliban to overthrow/rid/eradicate the current government (despite its lack of legitimacy and influence throughout the country) and return to the pre-9/11 days of Taliban rule. I am not a supporter of short term negotiations or discussions with the Taliban in hopes of some power sharing deal or semi-autonomy in the south while hopefully initiatives else where will sprinkle the 'fairy dust' of democracy (or its associated values) to the rest of Afghanistan in hopes the people will see the error in Taliban iedology. That type of strategy falls well short of appreciating the complex and various cultures and beliefs of the Afghan people, plus I don't see NATO or the U.S. maintaining the committment necessary (10+ years) for that to come to fruition. Long term the Taliban will rise and will attempt to take back control of the country. Although it gets no media coverage here there is plenty of evidence to support this in-country from captured and purchased propoganda the Taliban distribute throughout the country. They might settle for the south near term, but their long term strategy is the whole enchilada.
Calling it an insurgency is acceptable shorthand for what it mostly happens
to be, a conglomeration of insurgencies (plural) with several strains of 'Taliban' fighting a nominal if not effective de jure government. While Afghanistan is more than an insurgency, it is probably important not to get hung up on semantics.
Still, as Rob says:
Quote:
"We may have imposed self constraints on our ability to discuss this by putting qualifiers like global onto so many things, i.e. terror, guerrillas and insurgency. There is a danger in that because we tend to infer like properties on things and group them due to geography, religion, culture & language, association by timing or event, recent experiences, etc. rather then consider them as unique and distinct."
Call it what you will but be aware of what it is.
In addition to the insurgency factor, there are also several strains of 'Taliban' fighting each other. There are long standing blood feuds that have nothing to do with the 'Taliban' or the government and they can muddy the water quite thoroughly.
There is rampant criminality, most notably the poppy cultivation and drug trade but there are other criminal organizations involved in minor warfare as well. Smuggling of many things is an art form and some smugglers are more than willing to fight. These conflicts between groups of criminals can involve clans and tribes and take on a life of their own.
Add in newly created tribal conflicts and 3,000 years of tradition plus current modern power disputes and jockeying for potential commercial advantage (and other modern powers just meddling to keep the pot stirring), the spill over of the Indo-Pakistan disagreements plus Pakistan's historic concerns over the area and Afghan internal politics and feuds and there is a good deal more than an insurgency.
Call it such if that makes you comfortable but do recall it is far more complex than that.
I don't think you're out of the galaxy,
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Ski
...In my small group at CGSC, I've been arguing consistently that there are multiple operation centers of gravity due to the distinct and diverse nature of these groups. Each enemy has to be looked at as a unique entity. My SGA wasn't buying it, but today I listened to another SGA who I'm taking an elective with who reinforced my point of view, so I feel a little less out in the galaxy.
I think (a) you're right on the mark; and (b) that's what we are in fact doing on the ground -- COIN where it suits, LE to include paramilitary and even military reinforcement of LE ops where relevant. CA and PsyOps where they can be applied plus full bore Intel, diplomatic, political and economic efforts to modify behavior of others and those local opponents for whom that's appropriate. It's all working, none of it is easy and it'll take a while.
That said, I still believe we'll have to modify our desires to comport the reality that is Afghanistan...
I have to look back to find it
But I wonder what feedack I could get on an idea that occurred to me about a year or so ago.
L&S- In order to determine what "COG" you need to focus on at the operational level you may to look much closer to home, for in your weakness or strengths might be found the most accurate foci as opposed to searching in what you think you know of the enemy?
When we seek to determine a direction for "targeting" we in essense seek to know that which is very uncertain. If instead one focus on that which you know the best(ie: your own) it may be that the sudden recognition of an enemy's weakness is not far behind.