It ain't over 'till its over
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Originally Posted by
LawVol
"I agree with Gen Dunlap on one point I took from his rebuttal. I do not think we'll be in any extended COIN campaigns in the near future although I am unwilling to put a time frame on it like he did. We can't even keep 125k (give or take) on the ground for four years without an uproar. Do you really think Congress and the American public would go for a 12 year campaign like Iraq?"
One issue here, that both LAWVOL and the MGEN miss, yes it is four years on since the Iraq war started, there are nearing 150k troops in country filling many different roles. While there is debate over withdraw timelines and benchmarks troops are still flowing in and out of country. The Army and Marines are growing in size adapting to the war and the flow of troops. The current administration has and will continue to resist withdraw. The next administration will be faced with the same issue withdraw or stay. How long will that take? What will the situation on the ground be? By the time it is all said and done it is concievable that 12 years will have passed before the war will be over, ending most likely in a similiar vein to Malaya: with the closure of a logisitics clerks ledger book and a standing independent government in charge. My main issue with the AF arguments has been that it has already assumed defeat and the critique of FM3-24 is a post mortem not a constructive dialogue. Lastly small wars, COIN, happen in many ways all the time, note that Senator Biden (dem from Deleware) has just called for a U.S. troops on the ground response to Sudan-Darfur. -T
Metaphorical rants on COIN and MTW
In running react drills for Marines in embassies, I learned how much harder it was for them to deal satisfactorily with less lethal intruders. They were far better prepared (mindset, equipment, posture, etc.) to deal with the fantasy deadly ninja teams than with a relatively harmless hooligan or activist. The Kent State flowers-in-rifles picture always came to my mind. And it froze them. We're reacting to having similar things happen to us on a much larger and deadlier, higher stakes scale.
We have seen that good capabilities in COIN are not lesser included capabilities for major theater war (MTW). They are different capabilties. In many ways, more complex and more challenging for the individual and small unit than MTW. But that doesn't mean that the reverse is true, that MTW is a lesser included capability of COIN. I happen to believe that the individual who can do COIN well can more readily adapt to MTW than vice-versa, but the scope and scale of the equipment, organization, and realted collective skillsets for MTW prevent a true two-fer in that direction. For a tiny window into that, picture a 1990s Bn from 1st Marines, all MEU(SOC)'d up, trying to do a CAX -- about as painful as 7th Marines in boats.
The sole remaining superpower is, almost by definition, not going to go toe to toe with a peer competitor. So we need to continue to adjust the "loaded for bear" idea that dominated the last decades, and reload for squirrel. History shows that our military's subsistence diet is squirrel, even when there are other bears out there.
Unfortunately, we don't need a peer to have a MTW requiring conventional skills, and the consequences of losing a MTW are at least as painful and probably far more immediate than of being neutered in our inability to successfully prosecute a small war or COIN. Even the baby bears have claws and teeth, and the cornered squirrels bite like hell.
So, we can't afford to suck at either, and it isn't good enough to optimize one since there is no two-fer. But we can't afford to field the dream team for either type of war, let alone both. It is a vexing problem.
Into the wild blue - way out into the wild blue
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It's not his most recent article, but here's a link to the Dunlap's article "America's asymmetric advantage" from the September 06 Armed Forces Journal.
Wow - "Earth to Buck Rogers", "Buck we have a situation down here - a human one - and well, we are going to be off the net for awhile, but don't worry." "Oh and Buck, one of the mission tech says he left a couple of things loose on your craft, and .....
War is about people - often its about killing them and compelling them, but its a human endevour. Any formula that tries to mimimize that into a technological one ignores the obvious, and risks the political objectives. Wouldn't life be simple if it were a parking lot?