Personally I have no idea, but here is an opinion:
Why the Iraqi army collapsed
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Moore
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Personally I have no idea, but here is an opinion:
Why the Iraqi army collapsed
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Moore
The story that seems to be the most believable is that the generals in Mosul ordered a retreat but with no specific instructions on how to conduct one. Then they jumped in some helicopters and took off to Irbil. The regular forces heard about it and simply broke. The hierarchical and top down structure of the ISF meant that only a senior officer could try to rally the forces and they had left. When that news spread other units they bugged out mostly before the insurgents even showed up. There have been continued breaks in morale but also some examples of the ISF standing and fighting and even launching offensives right now.
That last comment was only about the specific breakdown in Mosul that spread to the rest of central Iraq. If you want to go to the heart of the matter the Iraqi security forces are a hollowed out institution. Corruption coup proofing by Maliki etc are the root problems.
Yep. We'll see how we do in the 2016 election.Quote:
Originally Posted by JMA
They have no dog in the fight. They are not really loyal to a nation, only to their clan and religious sect. Based on those factors, they have no reason to risk their lives. Hence, the turn and run.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Moore
It is interesting that ISIS did a lot of targeted killings and assassinations of people in the ISF over the past few years. This apparently did a lot to hurt the morale of the ISF. The reason it is interesting is that is exact.y the kind of thing the VC did in South Vietnam those many years ago. In fact that was what Fall was talking about when he spoke of one side outgoverning the other; it is hard to govern when all the administrators for one's side are dead.
So regardless of how fashions in countering insurgencies change, insurgencies don't change so much. They all seem to make great use of assassination
This is real UW which we're restricted from doing. Fall provided a lo t of good insights that are as appreciated as they should be.Quote:
Originally Posted by carl
So are you saying that JPEL doesn’t actually exist? Or that it needs to be longer and less burdened by restrictions?Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Moore
Oh I don't know. The insurgent kills, the counterinsurgent arrests and jails. The latter is harder than the former but the effect is the same if you run the jails right and don't let them out.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Moore
We are required by our laws to target militarily appropriate targets. That is fine for 5th column guerrilla warfare, but it isn't how you effectively displace and replace existing governance structures. I'm not arguing we should do this, but we need to be aware of it. As Fall once pointed out, when we did our village assessments in Vietnam we assumed control if we built a school and kids were going to it. He pointed out we were often blind to the fact that the communist shadow gov appointed the teachers. Gov appointed teachers were a critical target for the VC. I see similar parallels in our current fight. We often don't understand it because it is outside of our perceptions model. A JPEL means little if we don't understand the adversary's strategy. We blindly focus on HAM and targeting foot soldiers when the real H VIs are often a different flavor.Quote:
Originally Posted by ganulv
Just a note on Indonesia, and even Malaysia. The SEA region was under Hindu influence for centuries long before Islam was born, or even before Christianity was born. The influence can still be seen: the national airlines Garuda, is named after a creature from Hindu mythology. Bali is still Hindu majority. In comparison, the various brands of Islam (and the so-called Muslim culture) in the region, is more diluted than what is found elsewhere.Quote:
Originally Posted by JWing
Other factors to consider in terms of the power structure within countries in the region. Ethnic Chinese or their descendents who intermarried locally, control the vast majority of the business interested throughout Indonesia (and Thailand). The economic control of the Chinese minority is lesser in Malaysia and Philippines, but their slice of the economic pie is far larger than what their portion of the population might suggest. The Chinese minority originate from the southern Chinese coast, descendents of labourers and businessmen. By and large, few of them converted to Islam.
Historically and till today, the Indonesian archipelago is dominated by Java, the most populous and richest island. The popular perception is that the Javanese are business at heart, no doubt due to the region's geography and trade (namely spice, historically) passing through the region. Due to Java being the center of power, the Javanese arts and culture is generally viewed as the most refined.
From my point of view, the need for a strongman in Indonesia is more about suppressing regionalism (eg. Aceh) for economic reasons, than about one group/ tribe proving their point over another.
What does JPEL mean?
What is the predominant opinion in the US about how to solve the issue and stop this 'invasion'?Quote:
Obama says no combat troops to Iraq; U.S. weighs airstrikes
No troops to Iraq, but other options are being considered.
That was President Barack Obama's message Friday in response to the lightning advance by Sunni militant fighters in Iraq that could threaten the government of Shiite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki........
Pressure for the United States to provide military support to Iraq's struggling government has increased, with conservative Republicans blaming Obama for creating a security vacuum in 2011 by pulling out U.S. troops.
http://edition.cnn.com/2014/06/13/us/iraq-us/
Obama cannot go back on the pledge to end US involvement in Iraq.
I wonder how many Americans, at the time when Obama made the pledge and acted on it, would endorse the Republican claim that Obama created a 'security vacuum' implying that he should not have withdrawn.
The manner in which the ISIS is moving in, the greater the delay in acting, would only make the situation wretched.
If no troops are to be used, then should Drones not be used before Iraq is lost to the fundamentalists?
The uncertainty as to what will happen to Iraq is only pushing up oil prices and that would lead to inflation.
It will also water down the effect the Western sanctions on Russia over Ukraine. Russian oil will be in high demand to offset the loss of Iraqi oil, which has the second largest oilfields in the world, with the added advantage of being 'sweet' oil.Quote:
Uncertainty over Iraq pushes oil price to three-month high
http://www.theguardian.com/business/...isis-militants
What effect would one aircraft carrier have?Quote:
But he clearly indicated that plans are being drawn up to give support to the Iraqi military. That would most likely be aerial support and there were reports of the Pentagon preparing to order the George HW Bush aircraft carrier into the Persian Gulf this weekend.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...t-9535810.html
Ray:
The drones will be of no use unless they can be directed to a target. Unless we put people on the ground in Iraq to help with that they would be useless. Mr. Obama won't put people on the ground, but he might send in various drones to make 6 o'clock news strikes. So I would not be surprised to see us send in drones whose missions are to look good for the camera.
Indonesia is uniquely different.Quote:
Originally Posted by JWing
It is because of the unique syncretic mix of culture, they being Santri, Abagan and Priyayi.
Santri is the practice of orthodox Islam, who are basically urban and who go to the Mosque, read the Quar'an and follow Sharia.
The Abagan tend to be rural people who have absorbed both the Hindu and Muslim ways and are sort of animist, if you will, and who follow folk tradition, to include beliefs that centres on spirits, magic, and the ceremonial feast or salametan .
The Priyayi are those who follow Hindu Javanese traditions.
Indonesia's political history would give an idea of how Indonesia functions and why it is different.
The Santri played a the key role in Indonesian Nationalist movements, and formed the strongest opposition to President Suharto's New Order army-based administration.
In contrast, the Abangan have tended to follow the prevailing political wind; they supported Sukarno's overt nationalism, while during Suharto's subsequent presidency, they loyally voted for his Golkar party. Poorer Abangan areas became strongholds of the Indonesian Communist Party (PKI) in stark opposition to the orthodox Muslim Santri. The cultural divisions descended into bloody conflict in 1965/66 when Santri were opposed to communists, many of whom were from Abangan streams.
For further details, see
Elections and Politics in Indonesia
http://books.google.co.in/books?id=k...ed=0CDYQ6AEwBw
SANTRI - ABANGAN DICHOTOMY IN TODAY INDONESIA: RECONSIDERED
http://sudirmansetiono.blogspot.in/2...-in-today.html
Bill---here is my theory---conspiracy doubt it---the Malaki army units based in the Sunni heartland have been always Shia units and there have been increasing massive complaints by the Snni locals that they have been acting like an occupation army--bribes, corruption, indiscriminate arrests for release money, targeted killings---exactly what the US Army saw repeatedly from the new Iraqi army but we looked the other way again a COIN thing.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Moore
The attacks by ISIS were of the swarming nature which is something we also saw in especially Diyala and the Sunni heartland and they were extremely successful even against say the 1st Cav in Baqubah.
In fact swarming attacks are extremely effective if carried out by aggressive small units---in Tirkit the attacks came from all directions at the same time, were violent and fast--the Iraqi army trained in the US fashion was simply not prepared for it---and ISIS then uses violence to hype the attack meaning the instant killing of prisoners or execution style killing to ramp up the psywar effects of the attacks.
There is something in the manner and fashion of these attacks that smacks of military training and field leadership---thus my comments back to al Duri and the Military Council and yes he did work often in the past with AQI.
So if one is viewed by the population to be an occupation army, and you are Shia do you fight and die defending Sunnis or simply flee and live for another day---you still will be paid whether you fight or not is the current motto of the Iraqi army. There is massive corruption and theft in the current Iraqi army and ghost units where higher officers collect the pay for the entire ghost unit etc.
So in effect they had become a hallow army---looks great in parading falls apart when attacked.
AQI has always pushed the ethnic conflict---the question is can al Duri and the Sunni tribes control ISIS--I think they can as they fight just as well as does ISIS and they are defending their heartland.
There was always chatter that KSA was funneling monies to al Duri and the Islamic Army in Iraq which I and others believed to be true as we traced 100 USD bills first to money washers in the Kuwait City Gold Market area and then on to the KSA.
The RSA has been at war with Iran in Syria and getting the foreign Shia fighters to pull back into Iraq which was done and creating a second front to keep Iran engaged in is a smart move whoever is behind it. It also places Iraqi oil fields in danger thus the oil jumping to 111 USDs yesterday so the ME oil producers are earning a little extra and that is always good for them. Now rearmed with heavy weapons and 114s/MRAPs and AAA and artillery and heavy combat experience and far fewer foreign Shia fighters---there will be new developments coming out of Syria in the coming months. Remember they also released 4500 Sunni prisoners for an extra fighting boost.
The wild card are the Turks now that ISIS originally their ally has actually taken Turk prisoners (48). The Kurds will push back into the "disputed areas" where they have always wanted to push the green line to nothing new there put to go to open warfare with ISIS-doubt it.
We need to stay of this fray as anything we do right now will be viewed by the Sunni to be proof of our open ended support for Malaki and the Shia and in the end if we assist we still will have no long term influence.
Bill---there is though a second option the KSA and Russian private deal meaning we hold your oil/gas prices high in exchange for dropping Assad fell through again privately---just maybe the KSA released the dogs of war to both rearm the Syrian fighters when the West did not and to send a hello back to Russia.---just a thought.
I presume it could be done the same way as it is being done in Pakistan.Quote:
Originally Posted by carl
I daresay that the US withdrew from Iraq, after a high cost in human and financial terms, would not have cultivated and organised a humint that is active in Iraq.
Therefore, would it be incorrect to surmise that the US can use drones, even if they do not wish to put boots on the ground.
What do you think is the aim of sending the aircraft carrier?
Hoping for a commodore Perry repeat? :D
Totally agree to the comments--a whole different world developed there and could if needed be a model for the ME ethnic groups if they wanted a model which they do not currently want.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ray
With a country having 60% Shia and Iran next door there is no danger of Iraq ever going Sunni fundamentalist any time so---the Shia will not give up the current power they did not have for the last 60 or so years and they fight well as we learned via JAM and the Special Groups and Mahdi.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ray
There is though a danger that Iraq splits into three separate countries and now the Sunni triangle has oil reserves thus a chance to develop alone if needed as did the Kurds.
Malaki was a fool for not sharing the wealth and reaching out--but he was always a dictator at heart and yes US military and State Dept types who were around him hid that fact as it endangered the overall mission which was to get out under the guise of "democracy".
Anything Obama does that kills Sunni civilians in the process will be viewed as a direct support to the Shia and Malaki and wins him absolutely nothing with the Sunni who are still at the heart of any solution there if anything it would stiffen their fighting as they will message to the Islamic world see it is the Sunni against the Shai and they are supported by the Americans.
Sunni's are still the majority Islamic grouping worldwide.
Joint prioritized effects listQuote:
Originally Posted by carl
Nothing more than a convoluted targeting list using EBOOKS methodology. We have failed miserably since adopting EBO true believers are still out there in force. The process sounds logical but is deeply flawed.