"What might emerge" is an open question in every insurgency
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Steve the Planner
Marc:
Back to my original point.
Libya uniquely raises the issue of How not just Who.
I remain interested in How this will play out. Folks in BenGhazi are not finding over, for example, taking the capitol, suspending the national assembly, re-writing the national constitution.
What might emerge is an open question.
To me, answering that question raises unique questions in the Arab World.
But it is a question for the affected populaces to answer.
The key to remember is that causation for these insurgencies radiated outward from the governments, not inward from whatever organization, leader or ideology employed during the insurgency itself. The key for the west is to not get overly anxious about the role of AQ or MB or any others who seek to exploit this situation, but rather to focus on helping to shape conditions that allow the moderate majority the opportunity to either reform the existing government or build a new government that is designed to avoid abuses and to provide the degree and nature of governance this populaces needs.
As an example, it was communists who exploited the poor governance (effective sure, but illegitimate, racist, exploitive, etc) of Great Britain in Malaya. Once the unacceptable aspects of that governance were withdrawn and new, acceptable governance formed, the communists became moot. The survivors came back in from the cold, where they had been driven by the security forces, and found that there was no longer a market for the product they offered.
So too in the Arab World have Islamist organizations offered the best hope for the people. Now that the people have taken the situation into their own hands this is no longer the case. Played correctly we can help render these Islamist groups as moot in the Arab world as communism has become in much of Asia. Played incorrectly, and we will drive the populace into their arms and deny them this rare opportunity at liberty and self-determination.