Sudan Watch (July 2012 onwards)

Moderator's Note

This is a new thread and in a moment I will move a small number of 2012 only posts from the Sudan Watch thread to here. There is a separate thread for South Sudan.

This new thread and today's post are a response to the timely FP article 'Why we’re ignoring the revolution in Sudan', with for once a few good comments:http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com...ution_in_sudan

(ends)

Let's hear it for Open Source.

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BOSTON — The Sudan army is preparing a major assault against the Nuba people who live in Sudan’s southern state of South Kordofan, according to new imagery from George Clooney's Satellite Sentinel Project.

New satellite images released Wednesday show that the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) has cut off the main evacuation routes from the area, encircled the remaining local civilian population in the last rebel strongholds of the Nuba Mountains, and is building roads and lengthening the closest airstrip within striking range.

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http://www.globalpost.com/dispatches...preparations-a

A BBC report that opens with:

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Largely hidden from the world's media, a conflict is raging in the border area between Sudan and the new nation of South Sudan. The BBC's Martin Plaut reports from the border on the plight of the thousands who have fled their homes and the rebels' motives.

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Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17276865

Why? This is offered:

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The rebels who are taking on the government in Khartoum are the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-North).
They see themselves as continuing in the footsteps of the movement from which they sprang, the SPLM of the late John Garang, which now runs the newly independent state of South Sudan. When independence came in July last year, many SPLM forces in Blue Nile and South Kordofan were left stranded in Sudan. These areas were supposed to have been allowed a vote to choose autonomy, but this was blocked by Khartoum.

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JUBA, South Sudan (AP) -- South Sudan says it shot down a Sudanese fighter jet Wednesday after two military planes dropped bombs around its oil fields, but Sudan denied it had lost such an aircraft.

Military spokesman Col. Philip Aguer said the downed plane was a Sudanese MiG-29 jet fighter flying in South Sudan's Unity State, but Sudan's army spokesman denied any Sudanese jets were downed, saying the claim by the south lacked evidence.

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http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories...04-04-15-17-48

Situation in South Kordofan seems to be deteriorating rapidly.
Southern Kordofan: Unfinished Business
http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/...=MasterAccount

and an article by documentary film maker Aidan Hartley:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/mosl...n-got-you.html

Sudan's Omar al-Bashir vows to 'liberate' South Sudan

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17761949#

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The Sudans on the brink of war and state collapse

While we've been fascinated with Egypt's bizarre presidential elections drama and other stories, I and many others have been oblivious to the serious worsening of the situation between the two Sudans. There are very few foreign reporters there — basically only the news agencies at most times — but considering the seriousness of the situation, the potential for many deaths, and the potential impact in East Africa and the Sahel this is worthy of attention. It's also surprising the issue is not getting more scrutiny at the UN.

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http://www.arabist.net/blog/2012/4/1...-collapse.html

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Originally Posted by Stan

Breaking Up Is Good to Do
Southern Sudan is just the beginning.

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OK so we start here: "(the US) has been a key architect of the internationally sanctioned referendum that will likely result in Southern Sudan's independence..."

Now we see: State Of Emergency In Sudan As Tensions Rise

Now what are the odds the 'key architect' will stand idly by?

Oh yes... and any guesses what strings are attached to this:

China to loan South Sudan $8 billion

JMA,

China is rapidly becoming the major player in Africa. They seem to be managing the two Sudans pretty well.

The US will never get involved in South Sudan, and Bashir knows that.

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Originally Posted by KingJaja

JMA,

China is rapidly becoming the major player in Africa. They seem to be managing the two Sudans pretty well.

The US will never get involved in South Sudan, and Bashir knows that.

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My point is that the US and EU get involved in engineering the split in Sudan and seem to think that it will be a smooth transition. I mean how dumb can you get?

One needs to ask the 'smart' guys in DC and Brussels what plan they have for when the whole thing blows up?

An update by MSF on the situation:

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People have died as more than 15,000 Sudanese refugees stranded without food or drinking water walked a further 25km to find safety in South Sudan’s Upper Nile State. They are fleeing fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces and armed groups in neighbouring Sudan.

Around 35,000 refugees have crossed the border over the past three weeks, as temperatures in the region hit 37˚C.They arrived to find refugee camps that were already overcrowded and struggling to provide enough water for the 70,000 refugees in the area.

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Link:http://www.msf.org.uk/Sudanese_refug...ontent=website

This is a new thread and in a moment I will move a small number of 2012 only posts from the Sudan Watch thread to here.

This new thread and today's post are a response to the timely FP article 'Why we’re ignoring the revolution in Sudan', with for once a few good comments:http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com...ution_in_sudan

Interesting chap the author, see his bio:http://eldahshan.com/about/

Some context for recent events:

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Sudan has a history of non-violent pro-democracy civil insurrection which far pre-dates the Arab Spring. But can such an uprising succeed today?

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Optimistically it ends with:

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Though the movement faces enormous challenges and victory is by no means certain, the current protests in Sudan illustrate that even the most brutal regime is ultimately vulnerable if it loses legitimacy in the eyes of its people.

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Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/opensec...l-insurrection

Sudanese politics in a short primer, even with a bewildering number of political groups, but this sums it all up:

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The current regime has been in power for 23 years with nothing to show for it.

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Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/opensec...urity-in-sudan

This is a historical account, affecting both South Sudan and Sudan; he starts with:

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The author resigned his UN mandate as one of the experts charged with administering the Sudan/Darfur sanctions agreed under the "Responsibility to Protect". The sanctions against individuals could not work, and indeed, the UN knew this and violated its very own sanctions in trying to bring peace to the region. But the UN's need to preserve the pretence of a common international response to war violence forces it to deviate from the important tasks required for peace. The Responsibility to Protect should not be instrumentalised like this

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The author is not bitter:

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We can only conclude that in the case of Sudan, they never really wanted to act and have been happy to maintain the illusion that the UN is acting. When action fails, they can blame - and eventually even sanction - the local players for a mess that is in fact in part of their own making.

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Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/j%C3%A9...nctions-buster

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KHARTOUM - Sudan said on Wednesday that an Israeli air strike had caused the huge explosion and fire at an arms factory in Khartoum that killed two people, while Israel's defense and foreign ministry declined to comment.

Sudan, which analysts say is used as an arms-smuggling route to the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip via neighboring Egypt, has blamed Israel for such strikes in the past but Israel either has refused to comment or said it neither admitted or denied involvement.

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http://www.jpost.com/LandedPages/Pri...id=289106&rz=1

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Two Iranian warships carrying a message of "peace and security to neighboring countries:* have docked in Sudan, the state-run IRNA news agency reported on Monday.

According to the IRNA report, the ships that docked in Sudan on Monday were the Shahid Naqdi, a corvette-class vessel, and the Kharg, a supply vessel that can carry three helicopters. It said the two vessels left from a port in southern Iran last month.

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http://www.rttnews.com/1993345/repor...mpaign=sitemap

* Why do I think their version is something like this?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-2VmohG_Pk

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A LONG-RANGE Israeli bombing raid last week that was seen as a dry run for a forthcoming attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities has destroyed an Iranian-run plant making rockets and ballistic missiles in Sudan.

Eight Israeli F-15I planes — four carrying two one-ton bombs, escorted by four fighters — struck the giant Yarmouk factory on the southwestern outskirts of Khartoum, the capital, in the early hours of Wednesday.

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http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/...cle1156457.ece

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Citing anonymous Israeli and western defense sources, the British newspaper alleged that an IAF force consisting of eight fighters, two helicopters and a refueling plane were used in the attack on the weapons factory near Khartoum. The force flew down the Red Sea, avoiding Egyptian air defense, and used electronic countermeasures to prevent detection while over Sudanese territory.

Four fighters made the bombing run, the other four were used for air cover, and the helicopters, which carried 10 commandos each, were in reserve in case a rescue operation was needed to recover a downed pilot.

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http://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-...spaper-claims/

A rare article on Sudan by Reuters, hat tip to Enduring America:

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Sudan was unstable even before the south seceded. Now Khartoum has lost three-quarters of its oil, and inflation at 45 percent is causing pain for ordinary Sudanese. Activists encouraged by revolutions in neighboring Libya and Egypt have staged small but regular protests against the government, though Sudanese security forces have so far kept them down.

More crucially, the loss of the south has exacerbated political splits within the government of Omar Hassan al-Bashir, who came to power in a coup in 1989. The country's rulers, who ushered in a hardline religious state, are struggling to keep competing factions happy. Religious preachers feel Bashir, 68, has abandoned the soul of his coup, citing as evidence the secession of the Christian-dominated south. Mid-level and youth activists in Bashir's National Congress Party (NCP) want a louder voice. And army officers feel the president is still making too many concessions to the south.

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Link:http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...&dlvrit=354887

Nothing like keeping Western friends happy, with organised protests and inactive policing.

Ethnic violence continues within S. Sudan. The government understandably is unable to provide effective security over such a large area.

http://www.cnn.com/2013/02/10/world/...SS%3A+World%29

Dozens dead, hundreds missing in South Sudan raid

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(CNN) -- A heavily armed militia attacked tribesmen during a weekend cattle drive in strife-wracked South Sudan, a government official reported Sunday, leaving behind dozens of dead and possibly kidnapping hundreds of others.

Unarmed civilians "were murdered in cold blood" while herding their livestock to camps along the Sobat River, near the Ethiopian border, Akobo County Commissioner Goi Jooyul said in a statement on the attack. He identified the assailants as members of the Murle ethnic group and the victims as the Lou Nuer, two factions that have been battling over grazing lands and water rights in the world's newest nation.

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http://www.voanews.com/content/south...d/1602917.html

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“We need to step up our patrolling system for our security forces to make sure they don’t allow pockets or areas where these criminals can hide themselves,” he said.

But officials say South Sudan’s poor infrastructure and lack of roads make it difficult for security forces to patrol along state borders to prevent the raids.

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http://news.yahoo.com/103-said-kille...204053266.html

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Jonglei County has been wracked by massive bouts of tribal violence for years. The United Nations says more than 2,600 violence-related deaths were reported in Jonglei from January 2011 to September 2012, and account for more than half of reported deaths in South Sudan, a country that is emerging from the shambles of a decades-long war. Jonglei state covers northeastern South Sudan.

Akobo County Commissioner Goi Joyul said the attack took place during a yearly migration in which members of the Lou Nuer ethnic group were driving cattle across the Sobat River. The commissioner said survivors of the attack saw the assailants use rocket-propelled grenades in addition to machetes and spears "thus overwhelming an SPLA force accompanying the people."

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Sudan: African Sequel to the Arab Spring?

Entry Excerpt:



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Read the full post and make any comments at the SWJ Blog.
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

Probably not unexpected by those who know and watch. Apparently the UN has been considering an exit too:http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article53188&utm_

Via The Soufan Group and added after a long lull:

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• Sudan is emerging as a “success story” for U.S. counter-terrorism policy because it now cooperates against terrorist groups rather than harbors them.
• Most U.S. sanctions on Sudan were lifted in late 2016 and Sudan is close to being removed from the U.S. ‘terrorism’ list.
• Seeking wealthy benefactors, Sudan has moved closer to the Persian Gulf states and out of Iran’s strategic orbit.
• Major international players have largely chosen to ignore Sudan’s past human rights abuses and the International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant for its leader, President Omar Hassan al-Bashir.

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Link:http://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrie...from-the-cold/

For several days now there have been public protests in many Sudanese cities and Channel Four (UK) has a report (7 mins):

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The Sudanese opposition leader is under arrest – amid a crackdown on anti-government protests held across the country. Security forces fired shots into the air last night to disperse crowds in the capital, Khartoum – as demonstrations against President al-Bashir continued for a tenth day in a row. Amnesty International said at least 37 people have been killed and hundreds injured. From Khartoum, Yousra Elbagir reports – and we should warn you there are some images of violence.

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Link:https://www.channel4.com/news/sudan-...against-bashir

I assume the C4 footage can be viewed beyond the UK. If not it is here:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ePTAsKk5m74

A Soufan Group briefing; BLUF:

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• After two weeks of protests in Sudan, President Omar al-Bashir has ordered an ‘investigation’ to determine what led to the unrest.
• The nearly three-decade-long rule of al-Bashir has hindered Sudan’s economy and divided the country along ethnic, tribal and religious lines.
• Security forces have been accused of shooting protesters, with estimates of up to 40 people killed in the protests that began on December 19th.
• Al-Bashir shows no signs of actively addressing the protesters’ grievances, although this could change if the protests intensify over subsequent weeks.

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Link:http://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrie...n-the-horizon/

A small update from an optimistic opponent of the regime:https://www.opendemocracy.net/north-africa-west-asia/hala-al-karib/revolution-in-sudan-let-it-fall?