Russo-Ukraine War 2017 (January-April)

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Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09

Easter is over BACK to the war-------

17:15 #Donetsk: [forum] It has begun, capital out's from #airport direction, and one incoming. Now AA-guns are rattling

17:22 #Krynychna, #Makiivka: One can hear heavy [guns], heavy machine-gun burst, windows glasses vibrate

17:28 #Donetsk: assault rifles, machine guns [are heard] at #Oktyabrskyi, sometimes heavies, incoming or outgoing

17:31 #Novhorodske: You can even use the word 'battle' to describe the events behind #Skotuvata, incl. lots of small arms fire

17:40 #Donetsk: Orcs are shelling artillery in the North

17:47 #Donetsk #railway staton: It has boomed [servel times] closer, like hammering posts. Now sirens went along #Artema

17:50 #Donetsk #railway station: Artillery continues the active work. Singles. At 2-5 sec intervals

17:50 #Donetsk #Putilovka: Orcs escalated after Easter, shelling towards #Avdiivka

Lot's of battle reports coming in from #Donetsk, #Makeevka and #Avdeevka this evening

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Pisky is still under fire.

Why Russia's Massive Zapad Military Exercises Scare the World
http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the...e-world-20199#

Russians are happy with the annexation of Crimea, but not with Crimea getting more money from state budget
https://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/ar...3490/normal/1#

Large Russian Land-Air-Sea Exercises in Crimea Highlight Vulnerabilities in Ukrainian Navy and Coastal Defense
https://jamestown.org/program/large-...stal-defense/#

Strange that UAF and social media has been pointing to this since 2014 and that the recent Russian exercises conducted just such joint land/sea/air landing exercises in Crimea...

FSB says it quashed plot to smuggle vast amount of weapons from Europe/Ukraine into Russia
http://www.fsb.ru/fsb/press/message/...bMessage.html#

AND as always with FSB accusations of this type...they NEVER publish a single photo or evidence..all just words as if the world is suppose to believe the FSB????

Another disinformation attempt being used to set the stage to something else...

BUT THEN the ground reality of Russian military actions.....

Ukraine reports 1 WIA amid 32 enemy attacks in last day

Most #Ukrainians want peace in Donbas, but not at any cost and consider elections in #Donbas ”unacceptable” – poll
http://uaposition.com/latest-news/uk...eptable-poll/#

.@Twitter bots in action - #Russian #informationwarfare methods designed for "easy exploitation - high impact"
http://bit.ly/2p3b30p

Ukraine twitter accounts complain of sudden drop in Russian trolls attack. Worried that their budget is cut.

Possibly true as the US government has recently taken down a series of Russian botnet servers with the arrest of a top Russian hacker in Barcelona....

Russia would need oil price at $72 to balance '17 budget (30% above EIA's '17 forecast).
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...il-break-even#

Ukraine and Syria are burning through Russian budgets....

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Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09

Putin is actually an interesting character...as a KGB officer in Dresden he BTW did not make it into SVR as many in his KGB class group felt he did not have what it took...

But anyway he turns up in the Dresden KGB HQs acting as more or less a liaison officer between the KGB and Dresden MfS...

And when things collapsed he went home it was said with a refrigerator and 400 USDs in his pockets when others went home rich from their time in Dresden and the ensuing collapse...

It is also said he was tasked at recruiting GDR citizens who legally left the GDR for the BRD and who might be settling in to the areas around Bad Tolez...the then German HQs for USA SF...in order to spy in SF activities...which some say he failed badly at...but he was good at recruiting active Stasi personnel into the KGB which then linked MfS warnings to Moscow about his activities in the "brother state".....

But he had very good contacts as he had worked with the Mfs Surveillance and Political Crimes units...

What is interesting is both the MfS and Putin totally missed the developing anti GDR movement hidden under the mask of "the peace movement" building in Dresden which then led to the complete fall of the GDR...

Now if one looks at his Dresden past and now you will see little change is his character and or his actions...

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Putin may well have been in the First Chief Directorate, which became the SVR, but that did not mean he was much more than a functionary; it is equally probable that he was in the Fifth Chief Directorate and liaising or attached to the First in some capacity.

What is clear is that Putin grasped how the KGB was organized and the importance of its Ninth Chief Directorate, whose successive organs (FSO, SBP) Putin has transformed into a Praetorian Guard.

One can infer parallels between Putin’s rise to power and that of Stalin’s. Both were dull bureaucrats who desired power, prestige and to be in the thick of the action, yet both were forced to content themselves learning the inner workings of how their societies were structured.

Personally, I believe that four experiences were formative for Putin:

1. Knowledge of the grinding guerrilla war in Afghanistan from other KGB officers or perhaps military officers
   
2. The fall of Communism in East Germany in 1989
   
3. The fall of Communism in the Soviet Union and its dissolution in 1991
   
4. The First Chechen War from 1994 to 1996, which echoed the guerrilla warfare of Afghanistan

On that basis, I believe Putin is absolutely terrified of overthrow by popular protests and defeat by guerrillas. His policies certainly reflect these fears.

Mariupol area 7.20 pm - a battle began with armour, mortars, firearms.

To all readers of this thread….


I have been reading SWJ since 2004 when I first became aware of it…and I have since then contributed a few articles to it as well as FP…

But since the Russian military annexation of Crimea…their unleashing of non linear warfare with cyber and information warfare as it’s core and then their military invasion of Ukraine and their adventure into Syria in the name to defeat IS which we all know is a farce……

During the last two years I have posted roughly 30,000 posts on these two areas and then starting posting more and more information on Russian infor and cyber warfare.

Alone on the Ukrainian thread Views have in the last two years climbed to over 980,000 …the Syrian thread climbed in the same time to over 360,000. I also noted that in the last two months the Russian disinformation and hacking has climbed over 8,000 Views.

While it is hard to see if readers were looking/researching or just skimming through I am happy that they “viewed” anything as I have seen that basically a lot of what I posted never did make it into US MSM or if it did…then days later.

During this process I have learned the value of social media OSINT and the ability of conducting excellent information warfare using social media….and took pains to show how Russian info warfare was being conducted both in Ukraine and Syria….and developed along the way a working relationship with @bellingcat one of the best social media OSINT types going these days..actually produces better quality open reporting than anything I have previously seen in the IC which also uses OSINT...

Along the way I have bashed the Obama WH for basically changing the entire ME in the desire to tilt fully to Iran and for their apparent lack of a solid strategic strategy on virtually anything…and they walked away from engaging in the Ukraine…..the Obama WH was great smoke and mirrors machine and the US MSM never really challenged that…

We then transitioned to the Trump WH….and suddenly and truly we are seeing for the first time the somehat serious political theory of “Wag the Dog” in it’s full glory being applied to cover up for a total lack of any strategy on anything other than “tweets” being used as a FP……using "on a whim and a prayer" as FP....

I learned a long time ago after VN if one does not ever speak truth to power things get worse….and in my work career that was a principle I held to which cost me sometimes, but I always learned even then you in fact move forward…because some along the way respected that.

The posting has led me to fully “see” and “understand” the intertwining of a lack of US FP built on well thought through strategies and allowed me to see at the same the interesting development of the Russian non linear warfare which is pushing their political war with the US….and they do view it as an actual war…somehow we do not…

BTW I have posted many comments on this concept of “seeing” and “understanding” something that drives me in all these years as I learned long ago ground reality “does talk to you..if you are willing to listen”….

After being recently chastised and sidelined for three days “for being on a soap box” that not many were willing to actually share…..even though reading and then responding by cut and pasting comments….I have decided it is now a good time to withdraw from SWC…it has been a great ride , the knowledge I gained in the postings has flowed into my company in a far different way than I even imagined and is openly up a startling new realm in integrating hacking defense with customers demanding now how to counter the everyday info war they are in….

It has been one heck of a long ride and I really enjoyed it…will comment on occasions if an article interests me…….

The killing in eastern Ukraine and Syria will just continue until someone stands up in the US and truly leads….and leads not by tweets….but by the realization of what Putin’s geo political goals really are guided by a strategic strategy...finally.....

Based on evidence I have had the opportunity to be shown/review the person tweeting might not be in office much longer IF treason counts for anything these days in the US…

Breaking my posting pause due to this development which is really important reference the Russian shot down of MH17...

Bellingcat's earlier piece on this key suspect in the #MH17 case
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-a...ning-of-mh17/#

Intercepted phone calls related to the #MH17 case were analysed for similarities with the voice of the suspect

Important news on #MH17 about the man who organised the movement of the Buk that shot it down
Russian journalist presents exclusive proof of "Khmuryi" involvement in MH17 downing
https://www.unian.info/society/18924...ng-video.html#

Moscow started building power plants in Crimea, then realized Siemens would not provide the turbines b/c sanctions
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-uk...ame=worldNews#

Russian media openly saying their army and terrorists have destroyed 800 houses in Donbas in 3 month non-stop shelling.

The Hague tribunal awaits tankmen of Russian Army’s 136th Brigade: lists, documents, orders. OSINT+HUMINT:
https://informnapalm.org/en/hague-tr...osint-humint/#

Russia illegally extracts 3 bln cubic meters of Ukrainian gas in Crimea
http://112.international/conflict-in...ea-16427.html#

Already Eighty(80) Ukrainian soldiers were killed, 530 WIA in 7671 attacks in 2017(118 days