Castro's Cuba: Quo Vadis?
Castro's Cuba: Quo Vadis? by Dr. Francisco Wong-Diaz. US Army Strategic Studies Institute monograph, 29 December 2006
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The United States, particularly the Army, has a long history of involvement with Cuba. It has included, among others, the Spanish-American War of 1898, military interventions in 1906 and 1912, the 1961 Bay of Pigs Invasion, the 1962 Missile Crisis, counterinsurgency, and low intensity warfare in Latin America and Africa against Cuban supported guerrilla movements. After almost 5 decades of authoritarian one-man rule, Fidel Castro remains firmly in power. On July 31, his brother, Raul Castro, assumed provisional presidential power after an official announcement that Fidel was ill and would undergo surgery. What would be the strategic and political implications attendant to Castro’s eventual demise or incapacitation? The author suggests some possible transition or succession scenarios and examines the consequences that might follow and the role that the United States might be called to play.
One little, two little, three little Indicators...
US Homeland Security tests response to possible mass exodus from Cuba
from those wonderfully unbiased folks at AFP
Mar 07 3:42 PM US/Eastern
An exodus from Cuba combined with a virus outbreak put US authorities on full alert Wednesday in a simulation meant to tested the response to a mass migration from the communist-run island.
As part of the Homeland Security exercise off Florida, Coast Guard units took to the seas and military planes flew overhead as fictitious Cubans tried to reach US shores.
The maneuver aimed to test the response to a migration crisis similar to the one in which 125,000 Cubans landed on US shores in the so-called Mariel boatlift in 1980.
Some US officials have speculated there could be a massive migration from Cuba when ailing President Fidel Castro, 80, dies, but officers involved in the exercise declined to discuss that specific scenario.
"I'm not going to get into that," said US Coast Guard (USCG) Rear-Admiral David Kunkel. "This is driven because we have to be prepared," he said at a news conference launching the two-day exercise.
"While this exercise focuses on massive migrations from Cuba ... it could be any Caribbean nation," he said. "However, Cuba is something for which we have to be prepared."
In Wednesday's simulation, 2,000 fictitious Cubans took to the seas in a bid to reach the US Coast, and thousands more people left from Florida to pick up friends and relatives from the Caribbean island.
After about 100 Cubans made it to shore, officials found that a contagious virus had spread among the migrants.
More than 300 officials from some 50 agencies participated in the exercise, which officials said was particularly relevant in south Florida.
In the 1970s, more than 50,000 Haitians fleeing the dictatorship of Francois Duvalier and later his son Jean Claude Duvalier headed to the United States.
In 1980, Castro opened the Cuban port of Mariel, allowing anyone who wanted to leave the country by boat to do so. Over five months, 125,000 people had left the island, some on fragile rafts, others picked up by relatives living in Florida.
A similar migration involving 36,000 Cubans again took place 14 years later, once more placing a huge strain on Miami and other parts of south Florida as authorities tried to cope with the humanitarian crisis.
On August 1, then Florida governor Jeb Bush, a brother of the US president, asked authorities to ready for another such exodus. He made the request one day after Castro announced he had undergone surgery and provisionally handed power to his younger brother Raul.
Kunkel said that at the first sign such a movement could take place, he would seek assistance from the Miami-based military Southern Command.
The aim, he said would be to intercept 95 percent of the migrants and return them to the country they left.
Kunkel insisted there would be no repeat of the Mariel crisis.
"Now we have a plan," he said.
He said that the focus would be to return the migrants to their home countries, but did not rule out using the Guantanamo Bay US military enclave in Cuba to house some of them. In the 1980s and 1990s, the navy base had housed thousands of Cuban and Haitian would-be migrants.
http://smilies.vidahost.com/contrib/geno/rofl.gif
Recent media reports indicated the Pentagon was planning to build facilities on the base to house migrants interdicted at sea.
Cuba’s Revolution Now Under Two Masters
27 July NY Times - Cuba’s Revolution Now Under Two Masters by James McKinley Jr.
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For the first time, Raúl Castro, the acting president, gave the traditional revolutionary speech during Cuba’s most important national holiday on Thursday, deepening the widespread feeling that his brother Fidel has slipped into semi-retirement and is unlikely to return. Yet Cuba continues to live in a kind of limbo, with neither brother fully in control of the one-party Socialist state...
Since the Communist Party has yet to officially replace Fidel Castro as the head of state, his presence in the wings and his towering history here continue to exert a strong influence in Cuban politics. That has made it difficult for Raúl Castro to shake up the island’s centralized Soviet-style economy, experts on Cuban politics said, though Raúl’s public remarks on Thursday made it clear he would like to.
He scolded the nation for having to import food when it possessed an abundance of rich land and vowed to increase agricultural production. He also said Cuba was seeking ways to secure more foreign investment, without abandoning Socialism...
27 July Washington Post - Cuba's Call for Economic Detente by Manuel Roig-Franzia.
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As one of history's longest-serving political understudies, Raúl Castro often struggled to persuade his all-powerful brother Fidel Castro to open Cuba's moribund economy to more foreign investment.
But Thursday, with Fidel Castro still hidden from public view after intestinal surgery last July and his prospects of returning to power uncertain, the younger brother asserted his desire to push Cuba in a new direction. Speaking at a ceremony commemorating the start of the 54th anniversary of the Cuban revolution, Raúl Castro declared that Cuba is considering opening itself further to foreign investment, allowing business partners to provide this financially strapped nation with "capital, technology or markets."
The younger Castro's remarks, coupled with his unusual admission that the Cuban government needs to pay its vast cadres of state-employed workers more to cover basic needs, amounted to the clearest indication yet of how he might lead this island nation. Castro, who was named interim president last July 31, vowed to partner only with "serious entrepreneurs, upon well-defined legal bases."...
27 July Miami Herald - Raúl Again Offers 'Olive Branch' to U.S. by Frances Robles.
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In Raúl Castro's most important speech since he replaced ailing brother Fidel, the interim Cuban leader Thursday bluntly admitted during the island's July 26 celebrations that Cuba faces myriad problems and little hope of quick fixes.
Castro, 76, told the tens of thousands convened in the eastern city of Camagüey that while salaries and food production are too low, inefficiency and prices are way too high. He added that Cuba's days of inefficiency, graft and dependence on foreign imports must come to an end.
Castro, also for the third time, called for a dialogue with Washington and made only passing mention of Fidel -- whose absence at the ceremony marking the 54th anniversary of the start of the Cuban Revolution reinforced the belief that Fidel will not return to active rule after his emergency surgery for intestinal bleeding last July...
Wikipedia:
Fidel Castro
Raul Castro
Will Cuba chose the way of enlightened despotism?
In a culturally planned economy, capital goods and services are allocated by bureaucratic decision. Over a period of time, prices established by administrative fiat lose their relationship to costs. So long as the system is run as a policy state, the pricing system becomes a means of extorting resources from the population.
However, as soon as terror eases, prices turn into subsidies and are transferred in a method of gaining public support for the communist party. In the end, everything, from food to housing is subsidized without any criterion for efficiency and hence turns into an obstacle to a rising standard of living.
France has consistently engaged into similar methods during the last thirty years, though in the case of this country the communist origins of this way of doing things have systematically been denied. Bureaucratic decisions upon what ought to be relevant to private economy truly exist and the whole economic system is truly run as a policy state, but the subtlety lies in the fact that bureaucrats and officials directly intervening in private economy are not officials, though in many cases they have been indoctrinated and trained in one or several of the four state schools and universities which use to train the ruling elite since decades. Instead those "unofficials officials" act as said-to-be private entrepreneurs and businessmen and other investors and “business angels” who carefully follow official and unofficial state directives touching on nearly everything, from goods and services prices, to wages per profession and specialties, to fashion, to design, to private banking, to insurance, health industry and many other things.
Instead of an open and officially claimed communist economic policy, this system works as one might describe as a conspiracy since it has no official existence; but the visible effects on private economy and the collective behavior of the society are exactly similar to those usually affecting communist and socialist rulled economies and they are likely to lead to depression and unemployment, as it happens in Cuba, for the reasons I explained in the first paragraph of this comment.
At this point, and since the existence of a communist ruled economy is denied, then the system belongs to another category known as enlightened despotism.
Enlightened despotism, when it is not practiced by a visible king or dictator but by a collectivity or a secret council of “wise men” is said to be ruled by synarchy.
This is what also happens in Iran today where the Mullahs truly rule the country from behind the political stage; and in Russia where the ruler is publicly visible and truly influential though he has been put in place by a council of wise men; and in some other countries such as China, though there the system is slightly different and seems to undergo a positive evolutionary phase.
This way of governing is more easily tolerated by other states as long as it is not officially named communism and as long as leaders who practice it fiercely deny it so.
Is Cuba going to adopt such system in the future is a likely hypothesis, in my own opinion, since it constitutes a more suitable, not to say obvious, way to attract foreign investments and to gain a foot, through private investments, in truly democratic countries.
Cuban Immigration Into The US Through Mexico.
Here's the article:
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For Cubans, a Twisting New Route to the U.S.
By MARC LACEY
Published: October 16, 2007
CORTES, Cuba — Cubans are migrating to the United States in the greatest numbers in over a decade, and for most of them the new way to get north is first to head west — to Mexico — in a convoluted route that avoids the United States Coast Guard.
The island of Isla Mujeres has become a stepping stone to the United States for many Cubans who believe that a route through Mexico boosts their odds of reaching Miami.
American officials say the spike in migration is due to a lack of hope for change on the island, since Raúl Castro took over as president from his brother Fidel last year. Cuban authorities contend the migration is more economic than political, and is fueled by Washington’s policy of rewarding Cubans who enter the United States illegally.
In fact, unlike Mexicans, Central Americans and others heading to the United States’ southwest border, the Cubans do not have to sneak across. They just walk right up to United States authorities at the border, relying on Washington’s so-called wet foot/dry foot policy, which gives Cubans the ability to become permanent residents if they can only reach American soil.
LInk to Article
Interesting article, because it strikes home. Recently had a situation where I was made acutely aware that the greatest growth of illegals coming across the Mexican border are from Eastern Europe, with Poland, Romania, etc. leading the way. There are all sorts of newspaper recruitment ads for illegals who can't get visas (or would have incredible waits) to fly to Mexico, make contact with their "handlers", and cross the US border to get to safe houses where they are then transported to major US cities. Cost is $10k to $15k per person, but beats waiting in line for 10-12 years, if you are lucky enough to win the visa lottery.
Got to hand it to the ordinary Cubans, though. They really got this game wired. They've just figured out a way to beat not only the US Coast Guard, but also the Cuban authorities by using Mexico as a conduit. Fidel really can't beat up on Mexico too much, because Mexico is one of "the locals" - Not like the Great Northern Imperialist.
I'm just sitting back and enjoying the thought of Fidel Castro joining sides with the conservatives out there who want to dramatically tighten US-Mexico border security.
Actually, this is "Endgame: Part 01 of ???". This was just....
...the opening gambit in a brand new game. Think of it as "Post Castro Era For $100 Billion" (give or take a few).
Originally posted by J Wolfsberger:
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The lousy economy is not and never has been the fault of the US; it's their own, for following a deranged economic system. If we were to lift Helms-Burton, and absent a dramatic shift to rule of law and a market based economy, I can't convince myself that there will be any significant change. The Cubans, however, will be expecting huge changes.
Then what?
(Incidentally, given the current craze for ethanol based fuels, Cuba could easily be a major producer. Why aren't they already?)
First off, let's get the ethanol issue off the table, because that's the easy one. Main reason is the high (and excessive) US tariffs against sugar cane ethanol imports. Substantial reason for tariffs: See Fanjul Brothers, FL. Much, but not all, is in the politics of sugar. The rest of the story has been the corn producers, but that might be changing, simply due to supply and demand issues for corn as a foodstock.
As an example, we (US) impose a $.54 cents per gal tax on ethanol imports. Here's the link to the details. The result is that ethanol imports just can't compete, even though making ethanol from sugar cane is much more cost efficient than making from corn.
Expect to see the most truly unbelievable bipartisan political coalitions come out over the whole issue of Helms-Burton.They're going to be players coming down on different sides of the issue (keep/modify/repeal), and talking about having folks showing up on different sides. Be a show in itself - Ah, the sweet smell of $$$$ & influence by the boatload.
Crazy prediction time: To DeeCee land & environs, Cuba will become the next Iraq. I don't mean in military terms, but in controversy terms. But the players on both sides are just going to be wild. Might take 6 months to a year, but it's going to be fun.:rolleyes:
Even on his freaking deathbed, Fidel can still pull off a stunt like this one. Got to hand it to that old buzzard - he still knows how to pull off an exit.
Commentary piece which is interesting, because it's plausible.
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Cuba's Generation Gap
By BRIAN LATELL, Dated 03.01.2008
After waiting his turn for nearly 50 years, Raul Castro traded in his military uniform for a tailored suit and became Cuba's new president on Feb. 24. His brief inaugural address was filled with obsequies to his ailing brother Fidel, along with promises to consult him about important decisions. But the reality is that 76-year-old Raul is now firmly in charge. Fidel's long reign is over.
There is even reason to believe the brothers' relationship had turned acrimonious, and that Fidel was forced into retirement. One indication: During his interregnum following Fidel's provisional cession of power in July, 2006, Raul never benefited from public words of encouragement or support from his brother.
In over 90 ruminations issued by Fidel in the Cuban media over the last year, Raul was only mentioned once. In contrast, Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez was repeatedly glorified, once even referred to by Fidel as his "brother."
There's another indication that all is not well between the two. Upon taking command, Raul demonstrated his independence, naming an alter ego as first vice president of the governing council of state -- the same post, first in the line of succession, that Raul had occupied himself for decades.
Link to full commentary
Background; Brian Latell
There's been lots of rumors floating about for a while that Raul and Hugo Chavez aren't on the best of terms, and that neither one really trusts the other. Just something to think about.
USAWC professor: Junk the Cuba embargo
Hey Folks, we did some Q&A with Army War College research professor COL Alex Crowther, who argues in the latest SSI op-ed that we should nix the embargo on Cuba. May be of interest to some:
http://bellum.stanfordreview.org/?p=250
Tristan
That should've been done 40 years ago.
All we've done since then is keep the 'Revolution' humming...
Castro is dead, now what?
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-cu...-idUSKBN13L044
Former Cuban leader Fidel Castro dies aged 90
As much as I despise communism and cruelty it has inflicted upon mankind, I grudgingly respected Castro's ability to stand up against the world. I believe it was Nixon that said Castro was a leader of men and a force to be reckoned with. I'm sure the pundits will do what pundits do for the next few weeks, but I don't think anyone will have a clue on what way Cuba will go until at least 6 months passes.