Possibly a little premature to make determinations.
Your Statement:
"We apparently didn't even imagine that there could be an insurgency in Iraq. The best case scenario seems to have been the ONLY scenario we ever imagined or thought worth planning for. How any serious student of war can think like that is a mystery."
may or may not be correct; all we know is what's been said in public and that's generally, in the national security arena, not a very good indicator of what actually happened.
Without being totally privy to the briefing sessions to the WH, we'll never know precisely what went on. However, based on the open source stuff I've seen (all should be easily Googled), I know:
- We had a massive failure of intelligence. Saddam gave two Russian Generals gold medals just before we attacked and they left town. The thinking at the time and until mid summer 2003 was that he'd wasted two medals. Then it became apparent that they suggested he open all his arm store, arm the entire populace, empty the prisons and let the Americans get to Baghdad because you will not be able to stop them conventionally -- then wage a guerrilla war. He did all that and he even announced publicly that he was going to do it. The Intel community either missed it totally or they propllry analyzed and reported it in a classified item not yet released and a command decision was made to go any way. We don't know which; we do know the authority exists for the President to do that.
- That the CIA, State, the Army War College, the J3 on the Joint staff and DCSOPS at DA all warned of the almost inevitability of the chaos that ensued. The CentCom war game two years earlier had included such problems.
- That the initial entry rumor mill had a "90 days and we're gone" mantra and that planners were told to low key the post attack planning effort.
- That the original intent was to go earlier and that there was strong advice not to play the UN game, yet Bush decided to go back to the UN and delay the attack (Why is not known, my guess would be to support Blair). That delay allowed a Turkish election to transpire and the new government reversed Turkey's position and did not allow passage of the 4th ID (and all its attachments) to start a northern front, a very significant part of the original plan.
- That Franks wanted 350K troops and Rumsfeld wanted 90K and that the Decider compromised on 250K+
- That in early May of 2005, Garner was abruptly removed, Bremer was installed and the whole ball game changed. To include the disbanding of the Army and the Police, arguably really dumb and several other dangerous things inculding incompetent political appointee staffers in the CPA. The "90 days and we're gone" rumors ceased. What we do not know is why that major change occurred, all we know is what we've been told about and what on the surface appeared to occur.
The rest as they say is history.
So we did imagine -- what we did not do was train beforehand on how to fight such a campaign and we deliberately elected not to plan comprehensively for something that had been touted by many in the Armed forces as a possibility, even a probability.
I do not know -- you may -- what went on in the Tank and in the WH Situation Room or at Camp David. So I don't know why some of those things occurred. From the above my guess (informed type as opposed to WA type) is that CentCom dusted off the Contingency Plan which visualized post attack problems and was told by the well known American Civilian control of the Armed Forces to forget that, strike hard and fast and we're getting out quick. That is their prerogative.
The Armed Forces then have to rebel or say "Yes Sir." My guess is that Franks was given the word that the Guidon was planted and it was going to go; either he could lead it or someone else would. Given his ego, he knew he could take Baghdad quickly but didn't know what would happen next so he said "Okay but I want to retire as soon as we secure the city."
Much has been made of the intel on WMD and so forth. Spooks by nature are an unforgiving crowd and get perturbed when their product is ignored -- but the Commander, the decider, has a right and the authority to do that; intelligence is advisory, not prescriptive. Similarly, the decider has authority to overrule his military adviser on plans for combat, discard elements he does not like and go for the gold. He may be dumb to ignore the Intel and / or to change the best plan his military folks can provide but he absolutely has the authority to do so. If he's successful, no one cares and he's a hero; if not he become something else.
At this time we don't know enough about the lead in, we do not know what caused some of those apparent decisions -- and it ain't over yet.
Walrus, If you'll read my comment, there's
no mention by me of WMD, just intel with respect to Iraqi capabilities and possible intentions that might be inferred by planners from those capabilities.
Analysts resign frequently, it's a high turnover job. The majority of those from Langley are of an anti-Bush persuasion and are also in the process of defending their institution. If anyone retires from the CIA and goes public, you can bet they are either attacking (rarely) or defending (usually) the Agency.
The Brit who committed suicide did so for reasons we may never know but there is no doubt that a portion of his angst was directed at the fact that he had leaked some classified info to a BBC reporter. That should be easily Googled.
Yes, there is the probability that Fido Feith, who's intelligent but stupid and dangerous, tried to muddle some intel -- but that is irrelevant. The CIA and DIA stuff goes directly to the President; Feith's foolishness may or may not have gotten there. The point I made was that Bush almost certainly made a conscious decision to proceed regardless -- and that is totally legal. It may or may not have been dumb (and we do not know enough at this time to say whether it was or was not) but it was not illegal.
Self censorship and job protection are a common phenomena in all walks of life in my observation. Even in the Priest / Rabbi / Preacher hood. Politicians, elected or appointed are masters at it. Civil Service folks are notorious for it. Unfortunately, the Armed forces are a reflection of the society from which they come so some folks in uniform also practice job protection. Far fewer than in an equivalent number of civilians in my observation but there's no question that service people at all levels are guilty of it. Human foible.
As you say, the risk assessment was almost certainly made. My guess is that Bush overruled Rumsfeld (who did not want to go to Iraq and hated the mission) and the JCS recommendation (The Staff recommendation; Myers was an Air Force guy and couldn't even spell land warfare -- that, BTW was part of the overall problem; three aviators; Bush, Rumsfeld and Myers nominally in charge and none of them with the first idea of what ground combat looked like) and said "Go." He undertook a calculated risk. We'll see in a few years how good his instinct was, too early to tell now.
Powell's 'famous' quote isn't a Pottery Barn rule but you're right, he knew -- so did most people in the Army. Only the Politicans refused to heed or consider the problem. However, they're the ones that were in charge, they did nothing illegal and while none of us are happy with what's going on right now, it could've been far worse and we'll have to see what happens when the fat lady sings before we can write the Critics Review.
Tom, thanks, good points. BUT... :)
I can recall at least two articles alluding to the fact that Rumsfeld was focussed on his plans to force the Army and Air Force to speed up the transformation process and thought that Iraq would be inimical to that but he was outflanked by the Wolfotwits to Cheney onduit. Broadly immaterial in any event, as I said "my guess..."
I'm aware of the flow into the WH. I erred in tacking DIA to the CIA in the 'direct to the Prez' column, should have said direct to the MLO and thence to the NSC. :(
I figured Feith's stuff probably got to the President; Wolfowitz and Cheney would have insured that, my minor point was (Tenet the Unbelievable not withstanding) we do not KNOW what the President actually saw or was told. Again, my salient points were; (a) that Bush almost certainly made a conscious decision to proceed regardless and (b) I have no reason to doubt that some people made a case for the potential problems. Been there done that, WH briefings are pretty free flowing, more so than are military briefings.
We can differ on the relevance of any intelligence cooking or manipulation. Yes, "...creating linkages using doubtful intelligence and dubious sources is a matter of record." but that does not pass the 'so-what' test. You know as well as I do that intel is not the be all and end all, at that level it is totally understandably rarely precise and that the Boss (historically far beyond Bush) can pick and chose what's presented to suit himself.
Simply, we do not know what intel Bush was briefed and what he heeded or discounted. As time passes, more will be revealed and we'll know more but we cannot know what went on in his head -- whatever it was did what it did and we are where we are. I'm sure some think that by "shining a light on the process" we can insure no future debacles. Heh. Good luck with that. A key and indisputable fact in the whole thing is that Bush said outside the Ranch to a CNN reporter in January of 2002 that "Regime change in Iraq is a goal of my administration." Most of the intel perversion or obfuscation took place after that. Regardless, regime change in Iraq has been effected...
Over many years I've seen many intelligence failures and many failures to heed intelligence. My WAG is that the ratio of failures due to those two factors is pretty close to 50:50 overall with a distinct preponderance toward pure failures of intel to provide the picture at the strategic level, about par at the operational level and with considerable variance at the tactical level, situation and personality dependent. That is not to fault the Intel guys, obtaining info is not easy, analysis is talent dependent, personalities intrude; lot of factors impede the perfection we would all like.
Having worked both sides of that issue, I understand the problems and processes and absolutely do not fault the Intel community in general for not always being able to produce the finite recipe or answers that some idiot Commanders want. I've been a collector and an analyst; I've also been a planner and an operator. I know it isn't easy and isn't perfect on either side. War's like that...
I also know that the conclusions are frequently drawn on the pessimistic side just to be safe. ;)
And that the system essentially works.
Going north after DS would have been interesting; probably been far easier then than it was in 2003. We certainly had more people and a better tail and Saddam would have been far less prepared in all aspects. The Arab Armies would not have gone with us, they would have loudly objected to the invasion of a Muslim nation (but cheered us on under the table) and, regardless of what happened in Iraq, if we had gotten all the way to the Turkish border and then said "You guys take over"...
We didn't, what if games are sort of a waste of time and effort IMO.
Ah yes, but the question is, had we gone north in DS, would that intel have proven accurate at that time ??? :)