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South Sudan: Watching a fragile nation
South Sudan is now at a turning point. After a UN supported war, the country to be will experience elections in 2010 and a referendum on its independence in 2011.
For the UN, the direction is simple: now it’s time for development, stabilisation in other words.
For the Sudanese, the direction is less clear.
First of all, neither Khartoum nor Juba has interest in going for elections and even less for the referendum. Since last year, South is experiencing a backfire of ethnical violence. Every fingers are pointing to Khartoum, the big bad wolf. But a closer look to those violence shows that reality, as usual, is less simple.
- All clashes started when the SPLM, the political wing of SPLA, started to crack down. The creation of SPLM-DC, a dissident wing of SPLM seems to have been the fire starter.
- All clashes involved, at the early stage, Dinka, the SPLA major ethnic group, and former SAF supporter ethnic groups.
- If Khartoum has advantages to destabilize GoSS, SPLA also has good reasons to undermine the civil SPLM administration. The soldier time is ending and most of them may loose their place in the sun with the elections.
- After nearly 50years of war, traditional social mechanisms are completely dysfunctional. The youth is actually marginalised by the actual in power “mature”/pre elders’ class. As war has destabilise economy and put on their knees most of the population, the actual ruling age class is trying to recover by increasing dotes and traditional transactions. This leads to a de facto marginalisation of the youth that takes guns to recover what they are denied: the right to marry and be a man.
- Education in rural areas is extremely low among men and even lower among girls and women.
- The infamous LRA, the main source of organised violence, has been pushed away in neighbouring countries where they have a safe even in an inaccessible zone. They are now split in dozen of small groups hunted down by at least 3 armed forces.
- Guns and ammunitions are flying around all over the place. Some say it is Khartoum while others are saying, well Khartoum is just fuelling the fire and tacking advantage of the incapability of the GoSS to stabilise and impose law and order.
- While the house is falling apart, GoSS and NPC are preparing for war as rumours of unilateral declaration of independence from South Sudan are becoming the official speech. Not even talking about Darfur.
- Regional powers are looking at South Sudan with a melted opinion on the creation of that non ruled country. Egypt is looking at containing the Muslim Brotherhood and extremist opposition while democratic change could just bring them to power in his old friend North Sudan. Kenyan and Ugandan governments and criminal groups are looking at South Sudan as an open land ready for colonisation.
- The population is 90% rural living on agriculture with average revenues far below poverty level.
The list is long and this one is not exhaustive.
The US interest are not low in Sudan and stabilizing South Sudan is highly necessary for the region.
Somehow, it does remind me other conflicts, without the presence of international forces. As the time is to stabilisation, South Sudan is an open air laboratory for it.
The question is simple: can we just do it? And if yes: how?
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Optimism faraway
Not the best indicator, but a year ago in part of the UK there was a move amidst the entire Sudanese expatriate community to promote the elections and referendum. Rivalry alas led to some disorder and to the local police's bemusement it was all settled quickly and the unity tottered on.
I don't know if this expatriate community has influence back home; nor does it appear to be financially empowered.
Optimimsm here is very different to on the ground reality.
My questions are: will the UN contributors keep their military and civil contingents in place if violence escalates? Does their mandate involve an active role?
davidbfpo
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MA
as a longterm Sudan watcher, I would say the short answer is No, we cannot as long as we persist in supporting the illusion of a single Sudan.
Tom
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Well, the question of an active participation of the UN in security, even for stabilisation, is a pure theoretical one. The South Sudan mission is under chapter 6, with the possibility if there is huge deterrence of the situation to use chap 7 privileges.
But the SRSG reaffirmed that up to now and for the future, UNMIS would implement a full chap 6. In clear a wait and see UN mission. The other problem is manpower. No one is really ready to provide more troops for SS.
Also, if things go bad, UN will redraw. And that is what the oldschool UN South Sudan wants: to go back to Naerobi and its confort (we are far from people centric concerns). Basically if violence errupt, UN loose their mandate...
So UN tried to push, and is still trying, SPLA to intervene into cattle wars. But as said previously, there are numerous question marks on the role of SPLA into starting the clashes. For me, it looks like calling the incendiary guy to play fireman.
On the other side, GoSS is trying hard (they say) to show they do have control. But… If they are not as bad as FARDC, they not too far from them in terms of discipline. Sometime, I even wonder what they have in mind. They contracted Kenyan army to train them. I have pretty low knowledge of Kenyans army records, but still, SAF in Khartoum must be laughing.
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From Sudan tribune Who and what is militia in South Sudan?
In Warrap state, according the media reports, heavy artilleries were used in fighting involving two Dinka clans. In Lakes state Agar-Dinka had recently attacked the SPLA convoy destroying a number of their vehicles using Rocket Propelled Grenades (RPGs). In Juba’s weapons search it is reported that even anti-air craft weapons plus RPGs, PKMs, etc., were found in the hands of civilians. So if the Lou-Nuer attackers used such type of weapons it should not be something new to any body.
also, I was talking with people from Human Rights about LRA. They asked me my solution. I answered: hunt them, kill them and when you catch one alive put him in jail.
their solution has been: let's go for reintegration...
Why can't we call a dog a dog? A civil war a civil war and not development with pre-election difficulties or war criminals just misleaded youth?
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Sudan denies recruiting former US officials as lobbyists
First announce with big highlights, North Sudan is denying now recruiting US officials as lobbyists. Well, once thing is sure, they need some in DC to be on their side.
Kiir accuses Sudan’s ruling NCP of arming Southern militias
On the other side, What ever President Kiir may say, the last reports from Small Arms Survey are pointing out the leakage of weapons and ammunition from SPLA Stock piles. When you want your dog dead: accuse him of rage…
Bentiu clashes purely SPLA affair: official spokesmanAnd just to confirm that they are really far from capable, SPLA started to fight each others, turning a so called army of clowns, into a gang of militia.
But we are going for elections, free and fair…
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Sudan War---5 Decades and Going Strong
And in the category of unending conflict
Quote:
Africa’s Last, Next War
Darfur isn't the worst crisis in Africa. In fact, it's not even the worst crisis in Sudan.
Arab horsemen toting Kalashnikovs provided by the Sudanese government thunder into a town. Women are raped in their huts. Men are gunned down as they flee for the bush, and children are packed off on the back of the raiders' horses while stolen cattle are herded away to be sold.
It's a scene that's become all too familiar for those who've followed the crisis in the western Sudanese region of Darfur over the past five years. But this isn't Darfur circa 2005. It's any one of hundreds of villages in southern Sudan in the 1980s. Or 1992, or 1997, or 2003, and quite possibly 2010.
Before there were
Save Darfur panties or George Clooney-led Darfur peace missions, Sudan was engulfed in a much longer and more destructive civil war between Khartoum's Islamist government and the country's animist and Christian south. The most recent phase of that war, from 1983 until 2005, killed an estimated 2 million civilians—more than six times the number thought to have been killed in Darfur over the past six years. Now, as U.S. attention wanders, it's coming back, and it will be worse than ever.
Good article and here is the money line:
Quote:
But that argument assumes Sudan, as currently conceived, is a functioning state—which it isn't. Counting the two failed pacts signed with Darfur's Sudan Liberation Army and eastern Sudanese rebels in 2006, "the whole country has ceased to exist and become a collection of peace agreements," says Medhane Tadesse, an East Africa analyst for the Ethiopia-based Center for Policy Research and Dialogue. "And [Khartoum] knows these peace agreements won't be implemented.
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What I love with South Sudan is that they fear nothing even being ridiculous. Now they remind USA that they have laws to pass for them to have their independency…
Is not a failed state we are building it is a silly joke.
Quote:
SPLM diplomacy stresses importance of referendum law
Saturday 10 October 2009 04:30.
October 9, 2009 (WASHINGTON) – With the Comprehensive Peace Agreement set to expire in January 2011, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement is trying to stress to the international community the importance of the terms of the proposed referendum law, which would govern the vote on popular determination in 2011.
When the CPA expires, the oil-sharing provisions will be terminated. Part of planning for the post-referendum period involves not only how to conduct the vote for separation, but how to run the oil economy after the outcome of the vote.
An official delegation was sent last week by the President of South Sudan, first to attend the UN General Assembly Meeting. The delegation was led by GOSS Minister of Cabinet Affairs, H. E. Dr. Luka Tombekana Monoja and the GOSS Minister of Regional Cooperation, H. E. Gen. Oyai Deng Ajak.
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Sudan’s SPLM gives ultimatum to NCP over law package
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article32766
Quote:
Sudan ex-Southern rebel group today issued an ultimatum to its partner in the Government of National Unity (GoNU) saying the dominant National Congress Party (NCP) has week to agree on a number of draft laws.
The laws include referendum and national security laws hotly debated with the NCP for most of this year.
The SPLM submitted a memorandum to the parliament speaker saying that these laws need to be tabled within a week or else they will boycott the national assembly.
“We are going to boycott the whole parliamentary session if they do not respond positively,” Yasir Arman, head of the SPLM’s northern sector was quoted by Reuters.
“There is an absence of political will from the National Congress” he said.
The SPLM stressed that this is the last session of the parliament before the April 2010 elections and thus these laws need to be passed as soon as possible.
After reminding international community, they blame Khartoum. We are on the road to peace…
For sure!
And I forgot the most hilarious :Salva Kiir death rumour spead by... Whe don not know yet.
This joke gonna turn to disaster as sure it is a joke.
May be it is time to have a closer look at what is going on in South Sudan.
Or in 6 month, I believe the same old folks will meet in Juba to patch the disaster.
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Quote:
3. The UN Security Council needs to address the leadership failures in Juba. Currently, insecurity in the South is worse than Darfur because the leadership of the SPLM has no direction and crippled by corruption. The collapse of the CPA would trigger humanitarian crisis in the region and it’s the responsibility of the UN and the World Superpowers to take seriously leadership failure in the South as a threat to international peace.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article32768
This is may be the most clairevoyant comment I read about the situation in Sout Sudan stated by a South Sudanese body since I arrived.
But I still wonder how people from this place can come to the conclusion that they are not capable to rule the country they did fought for.
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The Rule of what?????
Japan is funding 2010 with 10 millions…
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article32829
Is there a government in South Sudan
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article32871
Quote:
In fact, I suspect that whenever the SPLM SG talks about a failed state, he actually refers to GOSS. Honestly, at present, there is no establishment nearer to the description of a government in Juba except for a bunch of well fed and well protected individuals who go about their daily private business of looting public coffers!
What I like in that article is that they just point out what is reality. When can keep on blinding our selves but the hard facts are coming back to slap up back to the real world.
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red cross workers taken hostage
First the funny news from the failed country under construction. And then the bad sad news.
South Sudan calls on Khartoum to fully cooperate with US new policy
By James Gatdet Dak
October 22, 2009 (JUBA) – The Juba-based semi-autonomous Government of Southern Sudan has welcomed the new US policy on Sudan, and called on the Government of National Unity in Khartoum to fully cooperate with it.
In a press statement on Wednesday, Southern Sudan’s Vice President, Dr. Riek Machar said the policy was positive and would result to the lifting of sanctions imposed on the country by the successive American administrations if Sudan responded positively.
He said there would be no logic to continue with the sanctions in the country if the issues highlighted in the policy were addressed and fully resolved.
Sudan would also be removed from the list of the states that sponsor terrorism if it practically cooperates with the policy, he added.
Dr. Machar, who is also the Deputy Chairperson of the ruling party in the South, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) explained that the new US policy would help his government in trying to speedily curb the ongoing inter and intra-tribal fighting in the region.
SPLM and its peace partner, the northern ruling National Congress Party (NCP), which signed the North-South peace deal in 2005, last week achieved a breakthrough by agreeing on the final draft bill for the conduct of the Southern Sudan referendum on secession in January 2011.
SPLM officials however accuse their northern partner of dragging its feet on implementing a number of other outstanding issues in the agreement, such as the North-South border demarcation and national security law needed for the conduct of the upcoming elections due in six months.
They also accuse them of arming certain groups to destabilize the region.
The US policy which calls for engagement with the Khartoum government spells out the use of ‘stick and carrot’ approach to deal with the regime.
It calls for a campaign of "pressure and incentives" to pressure Khartoum into pursuing peace in the troubled Darfur region, settling disputes with the semi-autonomous government in Southern Sudan and providing the United States greater cooperation in stemming international terrorism.
Washington said it would set strict time lines for the Sudanese President, Omer Hassan Al-Bashir to fulfill the conditions of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).
(ST)
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article32877
Then the bad news
Gunmen abduct Red Cross worker in West Darfur
October 22, 2009 (KHARTOUM) — A French aid worker of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) has been abducted today by unidentified armed men near the capital of western Darfur state.
Gauthier Lefevre, who was kidnapped around midday, was returning with other ICRC staff to El-Geneina after completing a field trip north of the capital of West Darfur to help local communities upgrade their water supply systems.
He was travelling in one of two clearly marked ICRC vehicles when he was seized a few kilometers from the town.
The Red Cross said ignoring the identity of the abductors and their motivations. However the charity requested the help of the Sudanese authorities "and other parties with the aim of resolving the situation as swiftly as possible."
In Paris, the French foreign ministry confirmed the kidnapping and asked for an immediate and unconditioned release of the aid worker. It further said the French embassy in Sudan kept in close contact with ICRC.
Since the arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court against the Sudanese President Omer Al-Bashir for war crimes last March, aid workers and peacekeepers face growing attacks and abduction.
Earlier this week two females aid workers were released by their kidnappers after more than three months and other tow UNAMID personnel are still under the hands of their abductors.
(St)
For all the soft rebel with a cause: Men keep on fighting!
I am sure all SWJ supports you and like to see you free asap. (right now)
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Terror on civilian did not work… Let’s increase terror on foreign civilians and aid w
Quote:
Government denies abduction of two Sudanese aid workers in Darfur
October 23, 2009 (KHARTOUM) — Sudan has dismissed reports about the abduction in Darfur of two Sudanese nationals working for The Kadhafi Foundation, run by Libyan leader Moamer Kadhafi’s son.
Today’s earlier reports said the two aid workers had been kidnapped near El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur state, on Wednesday as they supervised association projects.
Sudan’s state minister for humanitarian affairs told the AFP today that security service in El- Fasher told him that the two Sudanese aid workers are free now. They were freed after half an hour. It was a misunderstanding," Abdel Baqi Gilani said.
He further said they had never been kidnapped but declining to elaborate.
Sudanese intelligence services also insisted that the two men had not been abducted, according to a senior official with the UN-African Union peacekeeping force.
Two days ago unidentified gunmen kidnapped a French staffer of the International Red Cross. Gauthier Lefevre, who was kidnapped around midday, was returning with other ICRC staff to El-Geneina after completing a field trip north of the capital of West Darfur to help local communities upgrade their water supply systems.
However, the rebel Justice and Equality Movement accused today the Sudanese security apparatus of being behind the abduction.
Ahmed Hussein Adam, JEM spokesperson told Sudan Tribune the Frenchman had been kidnapped a Bir Bakik, around 12 klm from El Geneina, the capital of West Darfur. He added that Gauthier had met with JEM rebels to discuss the humanitarian situation in Jabel Moon.
State minister Al-Gilani said Lefevre is in "good health" and that he expected him to be released soon.
He also voiced fear of more abductions and urged foreign relief organizations "to bolster security around their offices."
(ST)
Concerning Khadafi foundation aid workers… Well, if you can have some doubts of their humanitarian engagement, they basically have proven that Khartoum is behind all that just by being released in the day.
Quote:
South Sudan army accuse north of arming tribal feuds
By Ngor Arol Garang
October 24, 2009 (KHARTOUM) — The Southern Sudan Minister of SPLA affairs, Lt General Nhial Deng Nhial today accused Northern Sudan authorities of arming rampant tribal conflicts in the region.
Nhial, who led Southern Sudan delegation to the Ugandan capital of Kampala, where African Union Heads of State attended Special Summit on refugees, returnees and internally-displaced persons (IDPs) strongly accused Khartoum government led by the ruling National Congress Party of President Basher of pouring arms in border lines to further submission to the region to spark tribal violence.
"We know it very well that Khartoum and particularly the ruling National Congress Party is arming all Southern militias and Arab tribes in the North -South border as well as some tribes in the south to wreak havoc so GOSS is regarded as incompetent government in the eye of international community," he commented.
He further said South Sudan does not manufacture arms and there are no arms coming into Sudan through the South; "hence wonder where fresh arms gets into the region in bulky, they are imported from the north." .
The NCP which rule the northern Sudan and dominate the government of national unity denied these accusations. Also, UN officials in Sudan insisted on the important lack resource and infrastructures as well as rains shortage to explain this increasing of tribal fighting.
There was no need of weapon smuggling to see that GoSS has difficulties in understanding the concept of ruling a country.
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Tensions at Kenya and South Sudan Border
It could be funny if it was not that serious:
South Sudan and Kenya are on the edge to be at war. Well, may be it is just a remake of India Vs Pakistan in the fifties when British generals were playing with new born countries' armies.
Anyway, Kenya, who is training the new SPLA tanks' crew, has deploy several tanks on the border close to Lokichokio, in Nadapal. SPLA has done the same on his side of the border.
The escalation is due to regular cattle raids from Toposa tribe youth in Kenya to steal Turkana tribe cattle.
Both Toposa (SouthSudan) and Turkana (Kenyan) do not recognise the border and are claiming the ownership over the grazing land between Kapoeta in South Sudan and Lokichokio in Kenya. Elders have even come out with old British colonial maps to support their claims…
Who said Africa does not have written history?
Security beefed at border after attacks
Quote:
By Isaiah Lucheli
The Government has established four security bases near the Kenya-South Sudan border.
Labour Minister John Munyes explained that security had been beefed up following attacks by Toposa raiders, which had led to the deaths of more than 40 Turkana herdsmen and theft of over 3,500 livestock.
Mr Munyes said bolstering security near the border was part of the Government’s plan to secure its international boundaries.
"The Government is committed to establishing Customs and Immigration offices on the country’s borders. The Immigration offices at Lokichogio are 25km away from the border. This has to change," he said.
Munyes said the decision was reached during a Cabinet meeting and that the migration offices would be built on the border points in Rift Valley, Coast, Nyanza, Western and North Eastern provinces.
He appealed to Kenya and Sudanese governments not to condone militia who attacked the innocent.
"A recent incident where Toposa militia shot at Kenyan security forces at the border should not be condoned. South Sudan Government should take the issue seriously," he said.
Munyes, however, said the Government should take blame on the escalating cases of boundary disputes with neighbouring countries due to lack of commitment in handling the Migingo Island issue.
"We have been lax while handling border disputes. This has set a bad precedent and other countries are encroaching onto our territory. This must stop," he said.
http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/news/...27046&cid=159&
About the hostage in Darfur
Red Cross says has contact with abductors of French worker
Quote:
October 24, 2009 (KHARTOUM) — The Red Cross said on Saturday it succeeded to establish contact with the kidnappers of a French staffer in the restive region of Darfur.
Gauthier Lefevre, 35, was abducted on Thursday as he was returning with other ICRC staff to El-Geneina after completing a field trip north of the capital of West Darfur to help local communities upgrade their water supply systems.
"The first contact was made yesterday (Friday)" said Tamara Al-Rifai the spokesperson of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) in Khartoum. She further said the abductors had not made any "specific demands" and that "for the moment, we do not know anything about their motives."
Sudanese government officials condemned the abduction and described the kidnappers as bandits.
Last week, kidnappers released two staffers of the Irish GOAL after spending three months in captivity. Also two civilian from the hybrid peace keeping mission are still in detention since their kidnapping last August
UN Humanitarian Coordinator for Sudan condemned today the abduction saying it "serves nothing but to undermine humanitarian work in the region, at the sole expense of those who benefit from such endeavour."
“It harms the chances of creating a safe and secure environment for delivering humanitarian relief and impacts negatively on our ability to deliver food and basic health and welfare services in areas where they are most needed,” added Ms. Haq.
(ST)
US came with a new plan… here is the Khartoum answer…
Could that be the new form of tomorrow war?
UN peace keepers declare the conflict is finished and to make sure no one could tell another story the parties abduct relief workers to conduct operations and massacres in peace.
We probably face here a deviant replication of the media control from those last years into small wars.
Tom, can you add Sudan on the list of chaos countries?
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On the path of war with Kenya
Quote:
SPLM Secretary General visits Japan
October 28, 2009 (KHARTOUM) — The Secretary General of the Southern Sudan ruling party who is visiting Tokyo discussed yesterday with the Japanese state secretary for foreign affairs the implementation of the peace process and South’s development.
Mr Pagan Amum, the Secretary General of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) is visiting Tokyo at the invitation of the Japanese foreign ministry.
Mr. Tetsuro Fukuyama, State Secretary for Foreign Affairs of Japan and Pagan on October 27 discussed southern Sudan development and the implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).
The meeting comes two weeks after a similar visit to Tokyo by Mutrif Siddiq, Sudanese Under-Secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Fukuyama and Mutrif discussed economic cooperation, the CPA implementation and Darfur conflict resolution process.
Fukuyama stated that the new administration of the Government of Japan would continue and strengthen the Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD) process and actively address issues faced by Africa.
(ST)
They make less noise than the Chinese but they are everywhere in Africa. I met them in Chad, in DRC, in South Sudan…
It may come some how a little wired when they ask you if they can feed their tamagochy… And you are in the middle of nowhere.
From Reuters:
South Sudan probably faces corruption affair.
http://www.euroinvestor.fr/news/story.aspx?id=10701459
Unfortunately the link in is French but I am sure you can find it in English.
While nearly 1.2 million people are starving because of drought, GoSS officials pass contracts to import food for more than 3 billion US dollars.
The whole GoSS budget is 3.5 billion Sudanese Pounds… (Around 1.2 billion US$).
Those guys… Are they for real?
Quote:
Kiir in Kenya: Borders Demarcation Federal JurisdictionStaff Writer
http://www.sudanvisiondaily.com/index.php
FVP, GoSS President, Lt. Gen. Salva Kiir Mayardit, who is visiting Kenya, held a meeting with the Kenyan President, Mwai Kibaki, where they discussed bilateral relations, CPA implementation progress and other issues of common interest.
Following that presidential meeting, GoSS Minister for Regional Cooperation, Oyay Deng Ajak, held a press conference jointly with the Kenyan Minister of Internal Affairs, Jeijer Shuang Alonq, on the issues discussed in the behind-closed-doors presidential meeting.
Ajak reported that the presidential meeting has decided the establishment of a joint committee for resolving the issues that caused conflicts between the respective Sudanese- Kenyan border tribes of Toposa and Turkana, adding that the two sides stressed the need to work jointly for restoring the peaceful coexistence that was prevailing before the current conflicts. He further stated that borders demarcation jurisdiction is vested in the Federal Government rather than GoSS.
What I like with South Sudan it is that when it goes bad, it goes really bad.
In addition to nearly being at war with Kenya, their ally and troops trainer, they just come out with a financial scandal.
Those guys just remind me some militia war lord from the bush you can find in DRC. They go to war in the name of the people, kill and harass the people they fight for and when in power miss use and abuse of their power.
Concerning Kenya army training… I’m not specialised in tanks but the body count is actually 30 kenyan policement against 2 Toposa youth.
Cattle raiders are crazy as they do it for pride and social status. But it does not look too good for SPLA in a North South war revival.
Ah, Garang… Where are you? We need you so much!:o
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Watching Sudan
Thanks to Professor Borum. He has id'd a website monitoring events in Sudan (not just the South): http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/files...dan/sudan.html and there is a list of other websites.
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watching south...
Thanks David for reminding me that Sudan does exist… Time to end up vacations.
Good news, the ICRC hostages are in good shape according to them.
One million each. Sounds cheap, doesn't it.
keep on fighting.
Then comes the as usual depressive news from South…
US envoy discusses CPA with Sudanese adviser
November 17, 2009 (KHARTOUM) – Ghazi Salah Al-Deen, Sudanese Presidential adviser and the visiting US envoy to Sudan Scott Gration discussed today the CPA implementation and Doha peace process to settle Darfur conflict.
Mr. Gration will continue to push for a compromise between the two signatories of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) over referendum bill. On Darfur issue the US envoy plans to visit displaced camps and Jebel Marra to support groups planning to hold a unity conference there.
Gration’s visit is a continuation of the efforts of the U.S. envoy to resolve the Darfur problem and to complete the interrupted talks between the two peace partners —National Congress Party and SPLM — on the CPA implementation, said Ghazi following his meeting with Gration Tuesday.
He further added that American proposals put forward by Gration during his previous visit are still under study and it is on the table for discussion between the NCP and SPLM.
The US envoy proposed to hold nex April only elections for the Sudanese presidency and the post of president of southern Sudan government, as well as state governors. He asked to adjourn the legislative elections to the period of after the southern Sudan referebda. Further Gration suggested extend the National Assembly membership from 450 to 510 seats.
The US envoy proposed to the two peace partners during his last visit also to accept the results of the fifth census but to amend the constitution in order to prevent modification of the peace agreement with a number of voters less than 80%. Also he suggests guarantying southern Sudan 30% of the executive power as it is the case currently.
The SPLM withdrew from the National Assembly on Oct 19, saying it wants parliamentary schedule for the remaining laws of referendum and national security.
The southern Sudan party further said the current draft of security law enables the security apparatus to arrest, search and detain, adding all these are against the constitution.
(ST)
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What I love in elections it is the debate over ideas
As Sudan prepares for elections, North and South are debating over deep and fundamental ideas.
North police just jailed SPLM Secretary General Pagan Amur and Yassir Arman for participating to a demo in Khartoum.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33374
As reply, South SPLM supporters burned NCP offices in Wau and vandalised NCP cars in Rumbek. http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33385, http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33384
In the mean time, North Sudan official media announced that UN are supporting Bashir… http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33373
I jailed your politicians against I burn your stuff… A great lesson of democracy in deed.
Well, I cannot blame SPLM. But as they say, if SPLM-DC wins the election: we (SPLA/SPLM) make a coup; if NCP win the elections in South: we make a coup; if my friend and military commanders do not win the elections: we make a coup…
So why do we want them to have elections?
Would not be easier and less efforts consuming to say: ok you have a gun then you are in power?
After Iraq, DRC and Afghanistan electoral processes, Sudan elections are strongly questioning the democracy/electoral postulate of stabilization and peace building.
More western powers are promoting democracy, more it looks like a standard colonial process with fake occidental like practices to empower friendly interlocutors.
But that’s probably all what satbilization, peace building and nation building are about.
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While the joke goes on, the game becomes deadly
Darfur hostages threaten of death by Freedom Eagles in Africa
The head of Freedom Eagles of Africa, Abu Mohamed Rizeigi, told the AFP on Thursday November 26, they are targeting French aid workers to force French government to change its policy in the region.
He further warned they would attack the French diplomat and troops based in Chad.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33419
The situation is getting worst and worst in sub Saharan Africa for relief workers.
I am sure the guys in Abeche and N’djamena are already shaking like leaves….
More seriously, as insurgents or bandits taking political agenda cover in Africa are missing legitimate targets or are too afraid to target French paratroopers and other legionnaires taking some rest on the continent, they turn to civilians.
It raises the question of civilian participating to non war related nation building/support. Expatriated civilian seems to be safer and more secure in at war locations.
Talking about the situation in South Sudan and the progresses of the nation building process (you know, the promotion of peaceful and democratic resolution of conflicts and power sharing issues), I really like the SPLM last electoral move:
Gen Kiir forms South Sudan military command council
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33407
Just before starting the SPLM candidates selection process starts.
South Sudan democratic nation building process is really on tracks now… First you build the military apparatus and then you designate your candidates for elections.
I do not know where this is leading us but it is clear that the democratic elections on the continent (Chad 2005, DRC 2006, Kenya 2008, Zimbabwe…) are more and more looking like a formal process for western like endorsement of military dictatorship.
Only 20 year ago a wind of hope was blowing on Africa as Berlin wall was falling and democracies were overthrowing communist totalitarian regimes. Now, as Iraq and Afghanistan have completely washed out democratic elections processes credibility, Africa dictators to be are coming back to their old practices. In a global world: what is happening in one place has global impact.
It is far from being good news for African people but even a worst one for western countries. If the theory of global insurgency is correct, a global civilian surge is needed. The marches of the democracies’ empire are falling. Africa is proving us everyday that democracy enforcement and nation building is not just a formal exercise that western powers can tickle and abuse!
For all the soft rebels with a cause: Keep on fighting men!
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How bad Khartoum wants the South away...
Sudan referendum law endorsed in cabinet, 51% ‘Yes’ vote & 60% turnout required
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33451
This shows how bad Khartoum wants to get rip of South Sudan. Well at their place I would do the same: South Sudan government went to bankrupt not even 5 years after being in charge.
There is ethnic violence all over the place.
Oil plants are in North, oil fields in South not exploited.
And basically no state and even less nation in South… Government even went to warn its administration members against self promotions for higher salaries.
Good news for once! :
Two UNAMID staff released by Darfur hostage takers
December 13, 2009 (KHARTOUM) – Kidnappers in Darfur today released two civilian employees of the joint United Nations-African Union peacekeeping mission. The Nigerian man and Zimbabwean woman had been held since August 2009.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33454
And now the proof that I am a master of evil in control of the world not knowing it, just like annonced in the The Conspiracy Thread
Sudan points fingers at France in stirring this week’s demonstrations
The Sudanese government today accused France of standing behind the demonstrations staged this week by a coalition of Northern opposition parties along with the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM).
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33444
Yes we do do that sometimes… But we don’t take hostages!
And supporting “nice guys” as Hassan Al-Turabi… Yes we do do that also, sometimes… But we don’t take hostages!
Supporting the ICC and support Bashir arrest… Yes we definitively do do that. But we don’t take hostages!
Meeting with armed movements from Darfur? Oh yes, we do do that! For the best or the worst. Depend on which end of the gun you are.
For all the soft rebels with a cause: keep on fighting men!
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I love when Hollywood stars are coming on a safari to tell us how to change the world
Sorry, today, I did not have time to look for English versions.
Angelina Joli criticizes Barak Obama on Darfour.
http://www.parismatch.com/People-Mat...-Obama-152319/
Just to give an idea, here is the US strategy for Sudan:
The U.S. strategy in Sudan must focus on ending the suffering in Darfur, and building a lasting peace. The three principal U.S. strategic priorities in Sudan include:
• 1) A definitive end to conflict, gross human rights abuses, and genocide in Darfur.
• 2) Implementation of the North-South CPA that results in a peaceful post-2011 Sudan, or an orderly path toward two separate and viable states at peace with each other.
• 3) Ensure that Sudan does not provide a safe haven for international terrorists.
About the hostages:
Also, Chadian general Oki Dagache accused Sudanese secret services to be behind the 3 French hostages’ abductions in Chad and Central Africa.
http://www.lemonde.fr/web/depeches/0...24@7-60,0.html
For all the soft rebels with a cause: keep on fighting men!
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If war with North doesn't work out: Let's go for a war with Uganda!
Sudan presses US special envoy on lifting sanctions
December 15, 2009 (KHARTOUM) – The US special envoy to Sudan General Scott Gration met with a number of officials here who urged his government to ease the decade long unilateral sanctions imposed stressing that they are no longer justified.
The Sudanese finance and national economy minister Awad Al-Jaz told Gration that debt relief is one of the peace deliverables and part of the Oslo donors’ conference obligations adding that Sudan has made substantial efforts in improving economic growth as shown in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports.
Al-Jaz stressed that Sudan is working on sustainable and balanced development as well putting efforts to bring peace to the war ravaged region of Darfur.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33477
Is that the bargain? Debt relief against hostages?
What ever comments Mr Gration can do, the elections will not be free, frai and transparent. Registration has been a success because population almost did not have the choice. Registration is nothing! What will count are the results and how they achieve those results and what will be the out comes of those results.
If it’s another fake government who tells its population (and I quote): “tell me what you need and I will make sure the UN will give it to you…”
Then guy, move, make war, what ever but do not participate to that joke.
South Sudan demands ancestral land from Uganda
Muki Batali Bulli, the Commissioner of Kajo-Keji County, South Sudan demands ancestral land that Uganda has "extended ownership claims."
The meeting convened in Moyo last week to discuss the border dispute between Uganda and South Sudan’s Kajo-Keji County turned chaotic after the Uganda team dismissed Sudanese’s claiming of more areas of Moyo and Yumbe districts.
In the 17-paged report presented by the Kajo Keji commissioner, Muki Batali Bulli, the Sudanese community of Kuku did not only claim "ancestral” ownership of the 5km-stretch of land that has been at the centre of the conflict but also other areas in Moyo and Yumbe.
The meeting chaired by the Ugandan international affairs state minister, Henry Okello Oryem, at Multipurpose Hall in Moyo town on Saturday, was attended by political leaders and elders from both countries including South Sudan Central Equatoria State Gov. Clement Wani Konga.
In Kampala, the Ugandan State Minister for Regional Cooperation, Okello Oryem, confirmed the meeting saying South Sudanese officials demanded a 5 km (3 miles) portion of Ugandan land at a meeting on December 12.
"It’s true the Sudanese claimed ownership of a bigger chunk of land but of course we have colonial maps and other documents that clearly state where the border lies and I’m confident we’ll reach an agreement when we meet in January,"
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33455
Looks like nothing this, but it’s a huge problem to come. Land is the best war promoter in Africa.
Sudan can claim for ancestral land, but they rather should ask Uganda to invade them. Ugandan troops are deployed inside South Sudan from the tri border point between Uganda, Kenya and Sudan up to Darfur.
I wonder how much colonial maps did include Darfur as a part of Uganda?
All right, they are hunting down LRA (On that, See the excellent threat COIN case: LRA). But GoSS is much too happy to welcome Ugandan troops on his soil, while population all over just doesn’t see it the same way. Ugandan troops come with families, with traders, with plenty people. They take some land to settle, waiting to come back with the troops.
In Magwi County, they don’t even bother anymore in asking to Sudanese elders the right to take land, they just take it. According to various definitions, it is basically a form of colonization.
South Sudan went close to war with its best military supporter Kenya due to border issues. Tanks and the best SPLA were deployed for several weeks on the border.
If they don’t manage to go at war with North, they definitively are looking for other bordering alternatives. But! What can do a government (and its neighbors) when its army looks like a gang? Apply the Rwandan strategy. If you want to stay in power: send your generals abroad to make war!
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Are western powers irrationals? Apparently yes.
Sudan urges France to review its colonial policy
Foreign ministry spokesperson Muawiya Osman Khalid condemned on Wednesday the "French irrational attitudes that throw rocks hinders the path of peaceful settlement in Darfur". He also warned its negative impact would be extended to "Francophonie belt" in central and western Africa.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33480
I love the irrationality to respect law and also the colonialist politic of France in Africa… Coming from a man who considers that 2 third of the people of the country he is ruling are slaves with a lower humanity that dogs… Let me laugh.
Yes there are new partnerships in Africa but this does not change the bottom line: you do not compromise with people under investigations of the ICC.
Well, what about US? Can Khartoum really afford to use such words against US?
Are US congress men all irrational colonialists?
Guess what? Most probably apparently.
Congress presses for harder line on Sudan diplomacy, arms embargo
USCIRF Commission Chairman Leonard A. Leo, having recently returned from a five day visit to Khartoum, said "it is time for the United States to exercise strength. The policy of engagement – ‘cookies and gold stars’ – is not working. It is emboldening Khartoum to a point where this peace process is perilously close to failure."
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33478
Just to remind every body of what is freedom of speech in Sudan during presidential elections:
Sudan says it will not permit any demonstrations by opposition
The Sudanese presidential adviser and the former director of the National Intelligence and Security Services (NISS) Salah Gosh told a convention for the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) that the government will crack down “on any attempts to stir up the absurdity and the destabilization of the country’s security”.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33487
Could, one day only, African politician stop undermining this continent?
Mbeki softens stance on Darfur hybrid court proposal
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33484
Just like with Bob who is killing Zimbabwe, Mbeki is playing his soft diplomacy again about Sudan and Bashir.
Soft diplomacy is a perversion of African traditions. Yes: countries sovereignty has to be respected but justice is independent.
A transparent and fair trial is not hold on the crime scene!
For all the soft rebels with a cause: keep on fighting men!
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Building dictatorship and war
SPLM says will not endorse national security bill
The current law, the 1999 National Security Forces Act, allows the National Intelligence and Security Services (NISS) to arrest and detain people without charge for up to nine months, and without judicial review for six months. It also grants them broad powers of search and seizure, and contains immunity provisions.
Yaser Arman, the leader of SPLM block at the Sudanese parliament and SPLM deputy Secretary General for northern Sudan, told Sudan Tribune Thursday they reiterated their opposition to the national security bill during the meeting because they "are opposed the powers to arrest, detention, search and seizure, and immunities for national security personnel," he said.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33492
I agree with them but they have to propose something. The old strategy of being opposed to everything did not work in any of the African countries. Opposition has to come with propositions and bill draft, not just oppose.
South Sudan army minister says peace is vital for growth
Defense forces have a critical responsibility of preserving, protecting and defending the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country to safeguard citizens from internal and external aggression, the minister said.
Nhial further blatantly admitted Government cognizant of numerous challenges particularly those personnel in the defense force faces in carrying out their duties, he called on men and women in uniforms not to deviate from the cause of the SPLM.
Here again, who will disagree with such the assertion that defense forces have the responsibility to protect and defend the people? No one.
But in a nation, an army (here the SPLA) is not the army of a party (the SPLM).
Once again, nation building hits at full speed its limits and our great incapacity to introduce and conduct security reforms in post conflict countries and fragile states.
Nations are built on two things: the ownership of power sharing mechanism by the people (democracy) AND the ownership violence monopoly by the people through defense forces (the submission of the army to a State apparatus and not a party).
US army is the tool of a nation not the property of a man or a party.
SPLA has to be the tool of a nation and not the armed wing of a party.
What we are building in South Sudan is a democratic dictatorship.
Elections are not fake because parties will tickle the boxes but because democratic power basics are not in place in Sudan.
As long as the elite of North and South Sudan will not be able to separate military and political power, the democratisation process supported by the UN will never build a democratic nation. It will just give another flavor to a dictatorship. In Sudan as in so many other places…
But by saying so, I just said that nation building is not just limited to elections and replacing an elite by another. I just rejected all assumptions of nation building as we do it to day.
But the worst comes from IGC:
the latest briefing from the International Crisis Group, examines the situation in the run-up to national elections due next year and the early 2011 referendum on self-determination in the South. It concludes that key elements of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), which ended the two-decades-long civil war between North and South Sudan, have not been implemented. The failure to foster democratic transformation in the North has also undermined the chances for political settlement in Darfur and exacerbated tensions in other parts of the country.
“Sudan is sliding towards violent breakup, and time is running out” says Fouad Hikmat, Crisis Group’s Sudan Adviser. “Less than thirteen months remain to ensure that national elections and the South’s self-determination referendum lead to democratic transformation and stability in the country”.
The current negotiations between President Bashir’s National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) cannot achieve an all-Sudan peace. Both want elections but for the wrong reasons. Bashir’s party wants to re-establish its political legitimacy, the SPLM to ensure that the referendum, which must be no later than 9 January 2011, goes ahead.
http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6438&l=1
In one word, neither North nor South are looking to build a democratic nation through an electoral process but are looking for a just war coming from electoral boxes.
And the proof of how bad it is from Small Arms Survey :
According to Small Arms Survey, North army is strong of 225000 men and 310000 small fire arms. South army is strong of 125000 men with 175000 small fire arms. This is naturally without counting the 2 000 000 small arms hold by civilian population. Neither the 100 tanks bought by South and North military industrial capacity.
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And South Sudan goes deeper on the path of failed state building
There has been a lot of news about South Sudan this week end. Elections, yes! But also many on core issues as the security bill, local governance, climate…
First the serious news:
Parliament voted the security bill
The law voted on Sunday still gives power to National Security to arrest and conduct investigations without real accusations but the duration of detention has passed from 3 times 3 months to a maximum of 4.5 months.
In fact the details are not that much different from what we have in our post 9/11 western countries.
SPLM voted against and the National Alliance, Minni Minnawi’s party (from Darfur) left the parliament…
In fact SPLM point is very clear and is one more time linked to CPA. This law does not comply with transitional CPA constitution.
But as they do not comply so much with CPA constitution is South, specially on SPLA deployment locations… I wonder to who we could throw the first stone.
Anyway, Human Right Watch already denounced it. I wonder what they will say when South Sudan will pass an internal security Bill…
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp...Ow49EJlorMlahw
(in French)
Elections:
Once again, Catholic Church is call for rescue and legitimacy.
Governor calls on church for moral supports during elections
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33525
More seriously, once again, fake elections will cost a huge amount of money:
UNDP funds $91m programme to support Sudan’s election
The UNDP program, which is funded by the governments of Italy, United Kingdom, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Spain, Japan, Netherlands, France and the European Commission, will cover all the materials needed for the elections including voting cards, ballot boxes, and educational campaigns for voters, together with training sessions for election officers and local police.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33503
After the disastrous election funding in DRC, EU tries again to buy an African country…
Local governance:
South Sudan calls for traditional leadership involvement in conflict resolution
The government of the semi autonomous region of South Sudan has called for traditional leadership involvement in conflict resolution in the region awash with fire arms and other weapons.
The regional government has in recent past witnessed regular killing of innocent people mostly children, women elderly and other vulnerable groups.
It is also experiencing public hateful and/or divisive speeches mainly from intellectuals seeking political appointments in the government as alternatives to reaching compromises.
Do not want to be arch on this but once again, central African power calls “tradition” to the rescue. When will we escape from the infernal circle of the African tradition as the solution to all the problems, especially bad governance and corruption?
If intellectuals are complaining about governance, monopoly of violence, accountability… It’s not in appointing local illiterate traditional chief that thingswill change.
South Sudan is just taking the old path of a too well known African dictatorial regime. I guess the advice comes from Uganda. Former Ugandan leader used the same trick to lower down intellectual opposition.
In my knowledge, it’s the same local traditional leaders who are complaining the youth is not listening to them.
As stated into the very well documented and excellent “guide to rebuild governance in stability operations: a role for the military?”, traditional leaders are often the source of ultra local conflicts and use of violence.
Then the funny news:
Climate:
Some are trying to use Darfur as the first climate war.
http://www.cyberpresse.ca/le-soleil/...bonne-note.php
Well, I am sorry, but Darfur war is based on power sharing and development benefit access. It is not even an ethnic war. Environmental changes have nothing to do with that ever going on war that pop up in western news papers only in 2004.
What happened in Darfur since 2004 is more or less linked with the CPA (even more than less). Khartoum faced an insurgency after being defeated by another insurgency. The response is the worst in the word, yes. But it is not due to climate. Otherwise Chadian war is due to climate. And my experience in that beautiful sunny sandy desert tells me that mass population movement and thousands years of no environmental management is far from being at the center of the conflict. Politics, yes.
Climate may be the war cause of tomorrow but do not try to reduce once again complex African political issues on power and economical access into a small tiny box!
African wars are as political as Western, Arab, South American, Asian wars! To quote Wilf quoting Clausewitz: war is politic.
I guess, as the opinion is coming from Quebec, it’s just Canada trying to get access to its oil fields. (But I am a political paranoid).
And still the hostages:
Red Cross calls for unconditional release of kidnapped staff members.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33522
Message is clear, nothing to add.
For all the soft rebels with a cause: keep on fighting men!
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MA, I almost spewed my beer
onto my keyboard and monitor :mad:
Quote:
"With the financial support, provided by the donors, the NEC can affirm its ability to organize free, fair and credible elections", he added.
Have any of these so-called donors ever seen a free and fair election in Africa :confused:
I did get kick out of the Carter Center's "However" regarding their campaign contributions :rolleyes:
Quote:
Unfortunately, 13 of Sudan's 25 states fell short of the NEC's registration targets, including all three states in the Darfur region.
So, exactly how many people really did register ?
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registration??? Is that the real problem...
Stan,
I will try to respond to your question on registration.
In South, things went not that bad. The main problem is not really registration but rather the figures they will present.
First of all, there has been an over estimation of South Sudan population by SPLA during CPA talks. Census and reality have shown that only around 4 million people are actually present in South Sudan. Then only half of them are in age to vote…
Basically IDPs in Darfur used their last weapon to resist against the UN circus and elections: they boycotted registration.
In South, as in the state where I am, I would simply say that even dead and babies will vote.
Figures are anyway all fake from the very first day.
- SPLA over estimated its population so they could threat Khartoum.
- Khartoum is running an anti election campaign as they may loose presidential election if they go for transparency and fair elections.
Few months ago, a report called tickle the boxes went out to explain why all parts will cheat. And, at that time, my comment was: only Khartoum needs to tickle the box; in South, military will probably just make a coup if not elected.
For more details on elections (what a joke) please, have a look at:
Imagine the elections from NDI:
http://www.ndi.org/node/15795
Oxford analytica
http://www.oxan.com/countries.aspx?country=Sudan
And Carter centre…
http://cartercenter.org/news/pr/sudan-081909.html
But I must say that I am not very much impressed by them.
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MA, Thanks for the links (especially another Carter Link !).
I wasn't trying to be sarcastic :o
I once visited Juba from Zaire, but then the governing authority were mostly military. So I find it hard to believe that something democratic will come from these "free and fair" elections in GoSS.
I noticed there is also a reserved election position for a female candidate. I can't imagine what that will do in Khartoum ;)
Do the locals still refer to Khartoum as Qadaffi’s egg ?
Regards, Stan
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I can't tell about the Kadafi eggs
What I see for the moment is SPLA soldiers visiting villages and saying: tell what you need and the UN will give it to you.
There is no such thing as free and fair election in GoSS. They all are former or members of the SPLA with stupid ranks. I did not even new that South Sudan could host so many divisions brigader general and major general and...
But, yes, you just got it. GoSS is not a government of South Sudan people, it's a club for SPLA high ranked generals.
The idea that an army is serving a government is just not crossing their mind.
There is something to be written on Central Africa: the tomb of Nation Building...
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Elections:
On December 22, NCP put a claim for fraud on elections registration.
In South Sudan, more than 5 million individuals have been registered while only around 4 million were expected according to census. It is nearly 131% of the potential electors that have been registered in South Sudan.
As I was mentioning in a previous post, the main question here id not who is cheating, it is the completely fake figures that have been used by all sides.
In which country around this world, with a real democracy, 100% of electors are registered? In South Sudan, that is not a problem, it is even the norm.
What I found amazing is that Carter Center and other watchers are not even reacting when South is doing such things. :rolleyes:
Referendum:
2011 referendum is the core object of the for the moment legal battle.
On December 23, NCP introduced a new amendment to referendum bill.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33553
Sudan’s parliament endorses referendum bill, SPLM protests amendments
December 22, 2009 (KHARTOUM) — Leaders from the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) along with other South Sudan political parties walked out of the National Assembly in protest of a new amendment introduced to South Sudan referendum bill.
But on 23, NCP redrew its amendment:
Sudan’s ruling NCP sends referendum bill back to parliament for reconsideration
December 23, 2009 (KHARTOUM) – The ruling National Congress Party (NCP) today made a highly unexpected move and agreed to demands by the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) on removing the amendments made to the controversial South Sudan referendum bill adopted by the National Assembly this week.
“We [SPLM & NCP] agreed on the fact that the law on the referendum will be resubmitted to parliament on Monday to be adopted with the article that had been removed,” the SPLM Vice president Riek Machar said.
A political observer in Khartoum Sudan Tribune that the “extraordinary” change of heart by the NCP” is driven by the fear that the SPLM would join opposition ranks in an alliance against the ruling party.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33567
Anyways, this is not to please US:
Washington accuses Sudan’s NCP of reneging on CPA accord
December 24, 2009 (WASHINGTON) – The United States is “deeply concerned” about modifications made to the South Sudan referendum bill ahead of its passage Tuesday in the national assembly and accused the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) of breaching the terms of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33569
What has to be understood is that CPA aim is not peace for the big people of this world… It is a tool to open Sudan regime to democracy. I do agree with the objective. But counting on South Sudan leaders and especially SPLM to be a democratic rone actor in Sudan… Well, you better look at it twice.
I know the other and especially Northern opposition parties are “bad people” (they are basically Islamic radical based parties) but taking SPLM for something more than SPLA…
Let’s have a look at the 2010 elections first and see what comes out, how SPLA, which should be the army of a country and not an armed group or political militia, will act and react to all the power changes.
From ground, it is far from being done peacefully yet.
And yet the funny look like news:
In Juba police commissioner has ordered all shisha/water pipes material to be destroyed as he said: shisha tobacco is like heroin.
I love when anti arab campaigns are run at such an intellectual level. Especially when it comes from guys who are managing semi alcoholic addict troops… :eek:
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It’s not because it’s Xmass and I have a hangover that Sudan gets better.
It’s a shame but it’s like this. ;)
Depending on the sources, Salva Kiir is either concern that Sudan may go at war again, either encouraging his people to be “prepared”.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/international...la-guerre-.php
For APLM/SPLA, not being at war is highly dangerous. As they are just not good into governing a country they do not care of (at least the people), they need to regain legitimacy.
As the elections are basically a fake exercise to make sure that SPLA is legally in power, SPLM has to administrate the country. Unfortunately, we are far from Nairobi and the cozy houses they use to live in for decades. So a good war with North would be the best solution for them to go back to Nairobi in all legitimacy.
Just to confort this feeling, ICG released an exellent report on Jongley ethnic fightings.
(Some comments from Sudan Tribune, please visit ICG web page for full report)
Quote:
The think tank International Crisis Group (ICG) in a new report examines conflict in Jonglei state of Southern Sudan. The report asserts that "inter-tribal fighting, while not a new phenomenon, has taken on a new and dangerously politicised character."
Titled Jonglei’s Tribal Conflicts: Countering Insecurity in South Sudan, the paper presents research on three main conflict cycles in the state: Lou Nuer against Dinka, Lou Nuer against Murle, and Lou Nuer against Jikany Nuer. The report implies that political competition at state, regional and national levels may be exacerbating tribal conflict.
"Politics and the personalities driving them in Jonglei may be linked to broader jockeying ahead of both elections and the referendum," asserts the ICG paper. "Some see the contentious debates over state leadership as an attempt to undermine Governor Manyang and alter the ethnic balance of power. Objections were also raised over his appointment of five state ministers, reportedly because they were ‘secondclass SPLM’ and supporters of Vice President Riek Machar. This hints at broader competition for paramount leadership of the Nuer, an unofficial position held by Machar, the highest ranking Nuer in the GoSS."
Here, we are far from the ethnic clash between pastoralist and displaced people. The political nature of South Sudan internal conflicts is fully taken in account.
Yes, war between former SPLA and SAF supporters is still going on. As in so many other countries (like Rwanda, DRC…) poorly educated people living from a harsh peace of land are abused and their natural feeling of attachment for their land (their resources, economical and social) is used for complex political battles between elites.
As CPA comes to its end, UN Secretary General took radical decisions:
Georg Charpentier from Findland has been nominated Deputy Special Representative, Resident Coordinator and Humanitarian Coordinator.
While General Jasbir Lidder from India has been nominated as Deputy Special Representative.
Good bye the nice guys doing nothing to not unpleased Khartoum. Welcome the European heavy Weight…
Guess who is funding the elections?
The road to Sudan, United or divided, as a Peaceful Nation is long…
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And China funded democracy…
It looks like a joke but it isn’t. China just granted 3 millions for Sudan elections.
China grants three million USD for Sudan’s election
Quote:
The announcement was made today by the Deputy Chairman of the National Commission for the Elections ((NCE), Mr. Abdullah Ahmed Abdullah, who received in his office the Chinese ambassador to Sudan Mr. Li Chengwen.
Following the Chengwen reiterated China’s support for the electoral process in Sudan and expressed the hope that the election will lead to the democratic transformation, in order to achieves stability and development. He also praised the developing relationship between China and Sudan in all fields
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33611
Apparently the US push on China, in Africa, to become more and more a “normal” donor and power in Africa had some results.
Also, most of China investments in Oil are in North Sudan… So United Sudan does looks like something they may be interested in.
After some difficulties, the referendum bill has been approved:
Sudan referendum bill finally sees the light
Quote:
Sudan official news agency (SUNA) said that the national assembly adopted articles 27 and 67 dealing with voter registration centres and the criteria by which a Southerners in the North.
Under the law, south Sudanese living outside the south and born before January 1, 1956, the date of Sudan’s independence, must vote in the south.
But south Sudanese living outside the south and born after January 1, 1956 would be able to vote in their place of residence, whether in the north or abroad.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33630
I’ll try to come with a copy of the bill. But the issue is still not clear and closed. Who are the South Sudanese livings in North? How many are they? What liberty do they have to actually go to South to vote?
Referendum battle is not ended yet.
But first things first: Presidential and general elections. On January 10th, the candidates should be announced. This candidate nomination will probably tell us long on the direction South Sudan will take. Will we witness only former military from SPLA (most probable scenario) or will we see the up rising of a real civilian political class?
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MA,
What impact has Russian envoy Mikhail Margelov's December visit had ?
RIA Novosti recently quoted Margelov where he opined there was no one to replace Bashir as president in April.
If Bashir goes, China will have a smooth arms deal in place. Hmmm, will Russia then pull out of their UN role :wry:
Regards, Stan
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Like in a dream...
Bashir expresses hope for unity in 2011 referndum, promises Darfur peace
January 3, 2010 (KHARTOUM) – Sudanese President Omer Hassan Al-Bashir, today expressed hope that southern Sudanese will vote for unity in a self-determination referendum scheduled to take place in January next year.
"Days are going towards the holding of elections (…) and will come the date of referendum where (people) have to say their word without pressure. We hope, with determination, that unity would be the fruit of peace and its biggest reward," he said
"We promise you that the peace circle will be complete, God willing, so as to be a really comprehensive peace that will soon be enjoyed by the beloved parts of Darfur and its steadfast and generous people" Bashir said.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33672
Either Bashir lost his mind about Darfur, either US and Chinese lobby is extremely strong. As I said since the beginning, South wants independence but they are more and more the only one. But as long it’s only Bashir who calls for unity, we are far from a unity option in 2011.
I was at a SPLM rally this week end and funny or not, they opened the meeting with the fact that 2010 will be the year of partition. May be, realizing after they had UN guest, they came back to 2010 the year for elections, but local, not national. Those presidential elections look more and more as a complete joke.
Actually the states with more than 100% of voter registered refuse to send their data to Khartoum to the NEC. They are saying they did not well do the census. Yes, right, that is true… But guys: why do you do #### work at the beginning and then look for a pretext to go for war?
Anyway, some candidates are coming, starting by my favorite for the moment ;)
Hassan Tourabi announced he nominated Abdullah Deng Nial as Popular Congress Party. He will run as independent. (AFP news)
Abdullah Deng Nial is from South and is a former John Garang family member… (PCP information)
Let’s go for Rock’n Roll… An extreme extremist candidate and a former Garang family member… Presidential elections will be wild. I love this: a southerner radical Muslim running for united Sudan presidential elections…
I am waiting for what GoSS will come with: a Northerner Christian preaching unilateral declaration of independence for South? :cool:
Stan, I'am going on patrol for a week so sorry for not responding immediatly. But interresting question in deed.
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You go away from office for 5 days and crazy stuff happens…
That ‘s normal I’ve been told but still, I have difficulties to go with it sometimes.
I'll make 2 post as too many stuff happened.
First of all, the coming elections:
Quote:
Sudan’s URRP leader to run for presidency in 2010
The Umma Reform and Renewal Party (URRP) announced today that it has nominated its leader Mubarak Al-Fadil to run for president in the April 2010 elections making it the third party in the country to name its candidate.
Al-Fadil was appointed by Sudanese president Omer Hassan Al-Bashir as a presidential adviser for economic affairs in 2002 before being removed in October 2004. He has became one of the fiercest critics of the NCP ever since.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33680
Quote:
SPLM ends nomination of candidates in Sudan
The leadership of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) today confirmed ending of the nomination of candidates aspiring for parliamentary and executive seats as state governors across the country.
"Their names will be made public no later than 14 January 2010 after thorough discussions from political bureau," he said.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33690
As I said previously, officials actually in post will have to resign to conduct electoral campaign. If that’s not a problem for North opposition (they are not in power) and Bashir (he just doesn’t care), this is a huge security breach for SPLM in South. They better choose wisely.
Then the referendum
It’s not me who say that, for ones, but:
Quote:
Sudanese NCP official criticizes referendum law as ‘recipe for war’
The Sudanese presidential adviser Ghazi Salah Al-Deen Al-Attabani and the leader of the National Congress parliamentary bloc criticized a portion of the referendum law adopted in the national assembly last month saying it contains a ‘recipe of war’ in it.
Al-Attabani voiced doubts about the meaning of a partnership with a “secessionist movement that does not even recognize Sudan’s independence”. He said the SPLM is proposing the New Sudan project which he described as an incriminating proposal because it “criminalizes the history of Sudan and does not even recognize its independence”.
The NCP official also accused the SPLM of failure because of lack of clarity in putting forward the New Sudan project adding that this is also due to the paralysis of its political will.
He also referred to the Juba conference held last September under the auspices of the SPLM which included Northern opposition parties saying that it lost its moral legitimacy and was effectively a venue to put the NCP on trial.
And then came the crazy news:
South Sudan independence a “reality”, NCP official says
Al-Dardiri Mohamed Ahmed, a leading figure at the NCP, was quoted by local press as saying that the separation of the south from the north became the “reality and inevitable” blaming the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) for this outcome.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33731
To be realistic, at the moment, there are 8 tanks and ACP, illegally imported from Kenya by GoSS that are stuck in the mud on Juba road guarded by SPLA beating up SAF soldiers… I am not sure they will wait for referendum to go at war.
PS: Stan, I do not forget your question. It’s coming. Give me time, I’ve several hundreds mails to respond to and a shower to take.
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What I love with Sudan, it’s they just do not know how to lie:
Quote:
Government slams foreign organizations’ report on return to war in Sudan
The Sudanese Foreign Ministry criticized a conclusion reached by some NGOs operating in southern Sudan that said that Sudan may be heading for a new cycle of war under the current prevailing conditions in the South.
The report, "Rescuing the Peace in Southern Sudan", was written on behalf of ten international non-governmental organization. It said that the upsurge of violence during the last year "could escalate even further and become one of the biggest emergencies in Africa in 2010."
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33719
10 NGO call for peace as they see war coming and what Khartoum says: you are wrong!
Hey guys, just say: yes SPLM is not capable to enforce peace. That’s the same and closer to reality that just saying no. If NCP stays in power, they will just let the situation go worst anyway.
I spend the week talking with tribal leaders and elders. They all are on the path of war. Not against the government but against the neighbors with cattle… They’re just waiting the election campaign and the lack of authority to go for it, when it’s not already done.
Quote:
Fighting in Warrap state leaves at least 139 dead
Clashes between Dinka and Nuer ethnic groups this week in Warrap state left at least 139 people dead. The fighting, purportedly over cattle, also left at least 90 wounded and several thousands head of cattle looted.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33707
Quote:
NGOs urge Security Council to consider more resources for UNMISA group of aid agencies issued a joint report today that urged the UN Security Council to consider whether the United Nations Mission in Sudan (UNMIS) needs more resources, pointing out that civilians in South Sudan are at risk, particularly in rural areas.
"The UN Security Council (UNSC) should emphasize that protecting civilians must be a priority for UNMIS and consider whether UNMIS needs more resources to meet its mandated obligations," states the NGOs’ Joint Briefing Paper issued today.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33709
Reminds me some bad times from DRC… The last 2 years actually!
More seriously, South Sudan is facing a real threat that will undermine any form of government in the coming future: ethnical fascism.
I know, it’s not politically correct to speak like this but the main problem all over the place is the Dinka tendency to believe that South Sudan belongs to them. Last year, most of the killings were due to Dinka and other tribes clashes. This year, it will be the same. Where I am, the only clashes taken in account by the government are the ones involving Dinka. I even went to a place where you had a chief for the local people and a Dinka chief to make the link between SPLA and the local chief.
According to me, South Sudan is a good example of the diseases of nationalism and failures of nation building: ethnical fascism legitimized by fake elections made in the name of peace.
SPLA should be a national army but it’s a Dinka army used by “politicians” to earn and eat the economical benefits of the war. You better be a Dinka or protecting Dinka interests in South Sudan if you want to live long…
The people I met on the ground were just afraid of SPLA. The only one who were not, were those with enough fire power to fight back...
What we really do not know to do is ending small wars. Backing up and training guys to fight in the jungle or freezing mountains… We’re all the best. But finding a path to stability and functional administration… We’re just a bunch of losers.
There is some highly theoretical work to be done on the subject.
I take a shower and come back.:D
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Stan, here is your response
Quote:
Russian special envoy remarks on Bashir’s reelection draw fire
The Sudanese political forces reacted angrily to statements made by Russian special envoy Mikhail Margelov in which he appeared to be endorsing president Omer Hassan Al-Bashir for another term in the upcoming presidential elections.
“I have not yet seen this alternative [to Bashir] even back in January when I had to convince [our] western partners that the arrest warrant by International Criminal Court (ICC) to arrest the Sudanese president is not viable and unrealistic” Margelov was quoted as saying in response to a question on availability of other candidates to run for president against Bashir.
Mariam Al-Mahdi, a senior figure in the Umma national party, deplored statements by Margelov saying that the choice of who to become president should be made by the Sudanese people.
“The Russian envoy has little understanding of the Sudanese political arena. He has limited his dialogue during his tenure to the two partners [in GoNU NCP & SPLM] so all he really saw was Bashir” the daughter of the former prime minister said.
The leader of the Popular Congress Party (PCP) Hassan Al-Turabi expressed “surprise” over Margelov’s position but downplayed its significance.
“The Russians have only recently been acquainted with democracy and are still carrying the burden of totalitarian rule. What he [Margelov] said has no impact on the ground and with no weight” Al-Turabi said.
“He [Margelov] did not meet with other political parties besides the ones in power or create channels of communication with us so his understanding is lacking. He knows nothing about Sudan or its problems like in South or Darfur or even the country’s history and what happened in the last twenty years [since Bashir came to power],” the Islamist opposition leader added.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33409
Actually Margelov comments are quite relevant and western powers do think the same; even USA. That is the main problem in fact, if not Bashir who else?
Basically, for the moment, Russia is providing the air transport to the UN (As usual). Up to now, MI8 pilots were mainly playing Khartoum game. It has been a hell to get the helicopters on some places long the Ethiopian and Kenyan border. But now, things are getting better…
Quote:
Russia has to open consulate in South Sudan – envoy
Russia should open a consulate in the southern Sudan capital as over 20 countries have their offices there, said Mikhail Margelov the special envoy to Sudan in statements to Russian journalists.
"This is not the first year that the idea of opening a Russian consulate in Southern Sudan in Juba has been discussed, and I am deeply convinced that this should be done and not delayed," reported the Russian RIA Novosti news agency on Wednesday.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33405
This could explain why Russians are more and more cooperative…
More seriously, Russians will not reconcider their participation to UNMIS. They have too much to lose and Bashir is almost insured to stay in powern the North. What ever happens in South, Darfour will still be there. I know, I know, they talk about peace... For the trillion times again, just before elections...
Chances to get peace in North a great but what is even better for the Russians is that chances to have war in South is even bigger.
But anyway, the big news comes from China, once again!
Quote:
China has been thanked by Kenyan government for its financial support for the construction of a road and rail way channel for Sudanese Oil to Lamu harbor in Kenya. AFP January 6 2010.
For the moment it's Port Sudan which is the main point for Oil export. This tells long about the efforts put to get South Sudan on tracks.
The only clouds I see, there is actually a conflict inside GoSS and SPLM/SPLA between pro Kenya and pro Uganda.
The coming elections will tell us who will win that battle. Uganda is actually having some strong positions in South Sudan. The LRA hunt has allow Museweni to send an important number of troops inside South Sudan. It's difficult for me to not see the Kagame mentor not applying Rwanda tactic to basically militarily colonize South Sudan. LRA looks like another fake FDLR threat to me…
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
M-A Lagrange
This could explain why Russians are more and more cooperative…
More seriously, Russians will not reconcider their participation to UNMIS. They have too much to lose and Bashir is almost insured to stay in powern the North. What ever happens in South, Darfour will still be there. I know, I know, they talk about peace... For the trillion times again, just before elections...
Chances to get peace in North a great but what is even better for the Russians is that chances to have war in South is even bigger.
But anyway, the big news comes from China, once again!
MA,
This is exactly what I was thinking. If Russia goes, the Chinese will be dead on their heals. Setting up a consulate means they are there to stay and guarantee a place for special envoy Margelov to watch the elections :wry:
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WFP warns against hunger coming... And they are right;
Quote:
Sudan: UN agency warns of massive food deficit in southern region11 January 2010 – The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) warned today that Southern Sudan is facing a massive food deficit fuelled by drought and widespread insecurity.
The warning comes as Sudan marks the fifth anniversary of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) which ended two decades of conflict between the central government in Khartoum and the southern-based Sudan People’s Liberation Movement.
“With tribal tensions reportedly mounting, there could be similar disruptions to vital food distributions in 2010,” warned the agency, which hopes to feed a total of some 11 million people across the entire country this year.
http://www.globalsecurity.org/milita...1-unnews03.htm
The only thing is that I was present to one of the many meetings WFP had with donors. And to be frank, they were just the worst advocate in the world for their cause. Their argument was: we are WFP give us money so we will distribute food.
If I was donor I would just say: NO! GO BACK AND DO YOUR HOMEWORK!
But they are right...
Just for the pleasure to be politically paranoide, in the South Green belt, they exported 100 trucks of 25 tonnes of food to North Uganda this year, according to a State ministry of Agriculture.
Even if they did half of it, apparently Ugandan market is much more interresting than South sudan market. May be because in North Uganda there is also hunger but the people have money and the government is not broke?
But as I said, I'm a political paranoide.
Well, you also have to had this:
Quote:
Sudan Stakes New Claim on Uganda LandThe meeting that was convened to discuss the border dispute between Uganda and Sudan turned chaotic after the Sudanese team tabled a document claiming more areas of Moyo and Yumbe districts.
In the 17-paged report presented by the Kajo Keji commissioner, Muki Batali Bulli, the Sudanese community of Kuku did not only claim “ancestral” ownership of the 5km-stretch of land that has been at the centre of the conflict but also other areas in Moyo and Yumbe.
The meeting chaired by the international affairs state minister, Henry Okello Oryem, at Multipurpose Hall in Moyo town on Saturday, was attended by political leaders and elders from both countries
Muki said the area continues westward to West Eria hill, Lefori and down to Wano, all places in Moyo that have previously been free of controversy.
Other areas claimed in the document include Dwani wano, Goburi land, Bori, Liwolo, Koriwa and several hills and streams.
On the site where the construction of an MTN mast was halted, Muki said the area was called Koturume and lies in the land of the Lito’ba clan from Sudan.
According to Muki, they stopped the construction of the Afoji-Lere road by Moyo district because it passes through Dwani Wano, an area, he said, was occupied by Ugandan refugees following the outbreak of the 1979 war.
“We received you warmly and allowed you to settle. Now the local authorities in Moyo have extended claim over Dwani Wano. The land is undoubtedly Kuku land,” Muki said.
http://www.sudanvisiondaily.com/modu...icle&sid=52828
As I said, I can't believe Ugandan army entered South Sudan just for the pleasure to hunt LRA. Actually, if you look at it closely, they are securing the Great Equatoria Green Belt. And USAID just decided to fund agriculture in South Sudan Great Equatoria Green Belt.
How to put it nicely?
US do not trust GoSS enought for security and does have the same analyses of the situation than Oxfam: South is falling into war and elections will not make any changes.
Also, they need to feed Museweny apparently. Democratic opening does not seem to be for everyone.
Let say it's a coincidence and not the too well known Kagame strategy to colonise a weak neigboor and his huge natural ressources...:rolleyes:
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MA,
I just coincidentally finished a documentary translated from French to Estonian on the GoSS.
The Frenchman (MSF) claims that people are still being set on fire and villages plundered to drive the population north.
Although there was much USA-bashing for the current regime in Sudan, in closing they mentioned the Chinese ready to provide "economic aid" with the new elections.
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As usual, MSF does a great job
Stan,
I will not criticise MSF, I'm a former MSF and the saved me when I had malaria in lost place in DRC but...
They do not really know how to communicate. I believe we read the same article and I have to agree with them. But they are too often focused on the great western evil powers. They started to have a teeth against China, I have to recognise. But the Maoist heritage from Kouchner is heavy to carry and they have difficulties to throw it away.
It makes months I am trying to get them in a lost part of South Sudan where there is no health, no government, no NGO, nothing.
And they came to make a surgery assessment...
Sometimes, it's difficult to get them out of the glamorous spots. But as all the others, they need money and 2010 will be difficult.
Saying so, they did and are doing great job in all the worst places where LRA is or Jongley.
I am surprised MSF-USA (doctor without borders) did not publish it in english. But if MSF is a big familly, like in all families, they are not all good friends. :rolleyes:
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news en vrac
Elections:
Quote:
Sudan’s NCP hints at possibility of alliance with SPLM in elections
The Sudanese ruling National Congress Party (NCP) expressed openness to the idea of an alliance with its rival representing the South in the upcoming April elections, a senior official said today. The presidential assistant and deputy NCP chairman Nafie Ali Nafie, speaking at a press conference today affirmed that his party is committed to holding the elections as scheduled. Nafie stressed that the NCP will accept the choice of the people irrespective of the outcome, hinting to the possibility of alliance with Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) “in light of the keenness of both sides to implement of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and maintaining the unity”.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33764
Quote:
Gration calls on EU to provide monitors, funds for Sudan voteMajor General (Ret.) Scott Gration, the US presidential envoy to Sudan, in a meeting with the press today called on the European Union to send some 300 elections monitors to Sudan in time for the April nationwide elections.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33749
The push for Sudan Unity is stronger and stronger from US. The EU seems to be keen to pay and control it but up to which extend?
The US strategy to let the former colonial powers deal with local indirectly terror linked issues in Africa seems to be still on the run.
But I cannot see EU doing it for free.
South Sudan agriculture and Rwanda/Uganda non interference in DRC against oil? Seems to be a loose deal.
May be EU expect AFRICOM to become the gendarme de l’Afrique in its place?
Any ways, official candidate list from NCP for North has come out. The one for South is expected in the coming days.
Quote:
NCP Deputy Head for organizational affairs Dr. Nafei Ali Nafei said that his party has choosen the following:-
Fathi Khalil for the Northern State, Al-Hadi Abdullah for River Nile, Dr. Abdul Rahman Al-Khidir for Khartoum, Al-Zubeir Basher Taha for Al-Jazeera, Ahmed Abbas for Sennar, Ahmed Karemeno for Blue Nile, Karamallah Abbass for Gedarif, Mohammed Yousif Adam for Kassala, Mohammed Tahir Aila for the Red Sea, Yousif Al-Shenbali for White Nile, Faisal Hassan for Northern Kordofan, Ahmed Haroun for Southern Kordofan, Mohammed Yousif Kibir for Northern Darfur, Abdul Hamid Kasha for Southern Darfur and Jaafar Abdul Hakem for Western Darfur.
http://www.sudanvisiondaily.com/modu...icle&sid=53050
and the Chinese:
Quote:
Sudan and China discuss expansion of Khartoum refinery
Sudan’s oil minister Al-Zubair Ahmed Al-Hassan was in China for talks on Khartoum refinery expansion, the official news agency SUNA reported today.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33765
Seems that Sudan is the new wild wild west of Africa those days. I wonder how that ménage a 3 (or more) between US, Russia and China will turn. Chinese are new players but strong ones with heavy arguments.
And this link on Sudan from our Quebecois friends:
General link on Sudan and UNMIS from University of Montreal
http://operationspaix.net/spip.php?p...=132&date=2010
A bit official but nice stuff on this site.
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Southern Sudan...Today and Tomorrow.
Nuba Mountain, South Kordafan State: 2002
Juba, Sudan 2007-08
All the comments are generally exactly correct. The situation in Sudan was once defined by one of the locals as similar to an onion; peel off one layer and you find another layer of discord, tribalism and conflict.
I was at the celebration of the opening of the SPLA HQ in 2008. President of GOSS Kiir was the speaker; most in the SPLA/M understand the aspirations of John Garang was for a united Sudan; but, what from what I understand Kirr will support an independent Southern Sudan.
This split within the "party" is the foundation for armed conflict within the tribes in the South, accurately defined as the Dinka and Neuer tribes. I might add, the Vice President of GOSS is Neuer.
The entire foundation is based on oil. The Abeyei region in the along the disputed north-south "border" is where the "money is". Even, if the south could secure that region, the oil pipeline runs north past Khartom to the Port of Sudan. The Nuba Mountains is adjacent to the pipeline and under the control of the SPLA..I was in the mountains with the 5th SPLA Front in 2002 commanded by Ismael Karmis..the governor was Abdul Azziz (he remains governor today of South Kordafar State). The SPLA would attack the pipeline daily interrupting the flow. That said, the cease fire agreement signed in late 2001 just for Nuba Mountains was designed to lay the ground work for the CPA and to stop all military action against the pipeline. Nuba Mountains actually is located in the "north"..and as such, was a critical component to the CPA signed in January of 2005.
Should the south "vote" to succeed from Sudan forming a new African state..they would have no access to ports, no pipeline, no all weather roads and surrounded by countries which may or may not support a future Southern Sudanese state (Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, DRC)
Other issues I have personal experience includes the UN initiative at DDR..De-mining, Disarm and Re-Integration (the most difficult part).
The UN's ability to organize a "true" election, plus all the other critical components is marginal at best.
And, lastly...the LRA..I absolutely agree..these guys must be killed or captured.
Sudan will be a struggle for many years to come. It was one hell of an experience....
RH
Other travels include SE Afgh/2003 and Iraq/2005..plus the Balkan Wars
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Hello Negociator6
Quote:
I was at the celebration of the opening of the SPLA HQ in 2008. President of GOSS Kiir was the speaker; most in the SPLA/M understand the aspirations of John Garang was for a united Sudan; but, what from what I understand Kirr will support an independent Southern Sudan.
As I understand it, that is what Museweny wanted and effectively not Garang. But Garang is dead. So the vision of a unified Sudan with 2 sub states will not be.
Quote:
The entire foundation is based on oil.
True and not. The deep roots of the second Sudan civil war can be also found in the first civil war and in the pastoralist culture that is shared by all ethnical groups from North to South Sudan. I was in Chad in 2005 and it was the same #### about land, water and cows. The oil question was flying much too high for the average fighter.
Quote:
The situation in Sudan was once defined by one of the locals as similar to an onion; peel off one layer and you find another layer of discord, tribalism and conflict
You read my mind.
Quote:
This split within the "party" is the foundation for armed conflict within the tribes in the South, accurately defined as the Dinka and Neuer tribes. I might add, the Vice President of GOSS is Neuer.
If only you had just Neuer and Dinka... But you forget the Toposa, the Murule, the I do not know what...
What kills that country, part from actually in power SPLA is the marriage bride. As long as a young guy cannot give 200 cows, at least, he is not a man. And the elders will mocke him and he will never have any chances to have a place in the society. So he takes an AK and goes for cattle raiding. And greedy politicians (may be stupid) take advantage of it rather than trying to solve the problem.
Anyways, welcome to comment, analyse and counter analyse South Sudan unfinished war.
M-A
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a Frankenstein laboratory
Apparently not every body’s happy with the previous batch of SPLA/, sorry SPLM/A, in charge:
E. Equatoria SPLM Governorship Election Results must not be overturned by the Political Bureau
January 13, 2010 — SPLM contest for the post of Governorship in the state has been won convincingly by Comrade Louis Lobong Lojore against the incumbent Brig. Aloysius Ejotuk Emor in a contest widely believed to be transparent and fair. Comrade Louis not only beat Comrade Aloysius hand down (21 votes for Louis and 4 votes for Aloysius) but his overwhelming victory sends a strong message to Juba that people voice is a voice of God and if they determine, time or money can’t stop their march. The ball is now with the SPLM Bureau to clear Comrade Louis Lololomoe Aribokinyang without any delay or manipulation!
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33776
Lakes nominations finalized for election – Awet not chosen for governor
January 12, 2010 (RUMBEK) — The Lakes State Electoral College Committee Chairman Abraham Mayen Kuc has officially announced the SPLM candidates nominated for the post of governor and for the geographical constituences in the April 2010 nationwide election. The incumbent governor, Daniel Awet Akot, was not chosen to stand for the post.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33771
What is really interesting is not who is chosen (it does have its importance) but the on going processes of questioning actual in power former SPLA commanders capacity to rule and administrate properly the State they were given.
And for those who are nominated but already in place:
Kiir will not step down as army chief if nominated for presidential election
An official of the semi-autonomous Southern Sudan has ruled out any possibility of General Salva Kiir Mayardit stepping down from the army even if he is nominated as SPLM candidate for presidency.
The minister for Presidential Affairs, Dr. Luka Biong Deng, who is a close aide to Kiir on Wednesday, said Kiir’s candidacy would not need him to step down as commander-in-chief.
He however admitted that presently the SPLA Act states that no member of the SPLA can participate in political activities but said there will be decisions made within the regulations of southern Sudan.
The Southern Sudan interim constitution is however silent about what the aspirant candidates for political positions, while actively serving in the army, should comply with during elections.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33778
Salva Kiir formally nominated for presidency in South Sudan
The Political Bureau of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) has announced the incumbent chairman of the party, General Salva Kiir Mayardit, as the candidate for South Sudan presidency.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33788
Smells like if I loose I still can make a coup… The battle between late Garang supporters and Kiir is raging on.
Anyway, it also addresses the issue of constitution design for post conflict or conflict ending contexts.
The idea to oblige candidates to resign from their positions inside State and South Government was quite a smart move. I believe the intension was to avoid exactly what Kiir is doing. And in fact, it works in most of the States, as SPLM has nominated mainly non governors to run for elections, in order to preserve SPLM control on administration.
On the other hand you have a breakdown of continuity and a dangerous State vacancy if the actual governors do run for elections as independents (as they will in many places).
I believe there are no perfect systems. A system that would forbid anyone already in place to run for elections would not be considered as fair.
Simple questions and complex answers, as usual with Nation Building.
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Building State or Building Nation? The SPLM/A challenge
Quote:
Sudan electoral board warns Salva Kiir to resign from his military position
The Sudan’s National Elections Commission (NEC) has sent a warning letter to the semi-autonomous Southern Sudan President and the region’s presidential candidate, General Salva Kiir Mayardit, to relinquish his military post in order to qualify to run for the upcoming April 2010 elections.
NEC is a national legal body established by law in 2008 in accordance with the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and the Interim Constitution of Sudan, 2005.
It is charged with the responsibility to process and oversee the conduct of the post-war general elections during the interim period and has established branches at Southern Sudan and states levels.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33807
It's a move, but may be not the strongest one.
Much more awaited, even if the results was known, SPLM-DC announced its candidate:
Quote:
Lam Akol runs for presidency in South Sudan
The former Sudanese foreign and head of the Sudan People Liberation Movement for Democratic Change (SPLM-DC) Lam Akol will run for the post of South Sudan president, according to a statement released by his office.
Akol was a leading figure in the legacy SPLM party but his close ties to the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) led by president Omer Hassan Al-Bashir has alienated his colleagues at the ex-Southern rebel group.
Akol has insisted at the time that the SPLM partnership with the NCP is particularly valuable and also campaigned in favor of the Sudanese President after the issuance by the International criminal Court of an arrest warrant against him.
The alliance expressed support to Bashir candidacy for president of the country.
“President Al Bashir is the only person to sign working peace agreement in Southern Sudan, Darfur, and the Eastern Region….. El Bashir was also credited with stopping wars and the bloodshed which had plagued the nation for so long. Also the inclusive administration instituted by President Al Bashir already is a good step for political pluralism and social and cultural diversity. Mr. Bashir is the very one now working to implement democratic transformation and as it was embodied in the interim Constitution of the country and the CPA and he should be given the chance to continue with this”.
“Bashir has to be given the chance to complete the implementation of the CPA and the other agreement which he had signed while serving current term. Many challenges remain and the alliance of Southern Political partied believes it is only Al Bashir who can overcame the challenges that remain in implementing the peace agreements”.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33797
Now, the real question is being asked. And it shows how much SPLM is not comfortable with those elections.
Quote:
Should Dr. Lam be allowed to campaign in South Sudan?
In the SPLM-DC nomination statement, Gurtong reports the Secretary of SPLM-DC Charles Kisanga as saying that “there have been big complains and protests from the members of the Alliance of Southern Sudan political parties operating in the Southern Sudan, that they had not been able to file candidates for many constituencies due to intimidation, bullying and arrests by SPLM security forces.” What Mr. Kisanga means by “SPLM security forces” is not clear.
However, this statement raises the question of whether Dr. Lam Akol will be free to campaign in South Sudan against Gen. Kiir or not. South Sudan Minister of Cabinet Affairs Dr. Luka Manoja instructed the Governors of ten states in South Sudan last year to allow all political parties, except SPLM-DC, in the South to conduct their activities freely. SPLM allegedly accused SPLM-DC of being the armed resistance movement that does not qualify to be a political party.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33804
I love the subtile differenciation between SPLM and SPLM-DC. As far as I know, SPLM is the political wing of a rebelion militia (well the agregate of it).
Transition from a military organization to a political one is always a challenge for rebels in Nation Building. South America experiences tend to show that such organizations are not capable to do it.
Other African experiences tend to show that the transition is only in surface (see what happened in Zimbabwe).
In South Sudan, the difference pointed out by Sufferedbeetle between State Building and Nation Building takes all its sense. Those elections are the first step to the referendum which will be a pure Nation Building exercise. Those elections are a State building exercise per definition but also a Nation Building exercise in the sense that South (At least SPLM/A) will have to reveal its true face.
Is SPLM/A are Nation representative machine or just a militia gang as too many others? Will SPLM/A accept to build a Nation with all its political diversities and accept to be challenged?
Will South be able to build its future out of the war?
Accepting SPLM-DC campaign will be the proof that SPLM can live without Khartoum. That South Sudan as a Nation is something that does exist further than the "my hamster grazing rights" claim or policy (to use Wilf definition).
The main danger in Nation Building is to build a fake apparatus that will just hide the real roots of the tensions. The temptation is high to just place people you have the habit to deal with and not address the real questions. Stabilization in Nation Building is not just addressing the on going small scale conflicts but it's also building a process that allows to prevent up coming conflicts.
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And China converted to State building
First the next episode of the elections and Salva Kiir legal prblems:
Quote:
Gen. Salva Kiir should relinquish his military position
The SPLM Secretary General Pagan Amum was quoted by a local newspaper, The Juba Post, as saying that his party’s chairman will step down from being the army chief as the law requires.
Amum also added that the party’s candidate for the position of the President at the national level, Yasir Saeed Arman, will also resign from his current position as party’s Deputy Secretary General for Northern Sector and focus on the presidential campaigns.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33843
The list of the candidates for South Sudan:
Uper Nile: Simon Kun Puoc (SPLM); NO (NCP)
Unity: Taban Deng (SPLM); Paul Leli (NCP)
Warrap: Nyandeng Malek Deliec (SPLM); Mayur Akeli (NCP)
Jonglei: Kuol Manyang Juuk (SPLM); Josepgh Dower Jacob (NCP)
Eastern Equatoria: Louis Lobong Lojore (SPLM); Andalla Albert (NCP)
Central Equatoria: Clement Wani Konga (SPLM);James Luro (NCP)
Lakes: Chol Tong Mayay (SPLM); Thomas Pan Melik (NCP)
Northern Bahr El-Ghazal: Paul Malong Awan (SPLM); Joseph Ajwang (NCP)
Western Bahr El-Ghazal: Rizig Zakaria Hassan (SPLM); Steven Musa (NCP)
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33840
Interresting but not suprising, NCP is not even trying in Upper Nile. Must say that Malakal is not really a pro NCP place. In 2009 combats between former SAF militia lead by Gabriel Tang and SPLA killed 50 and wounded 100. In 2006 combats between the same killed more than 100.
But that was hard breach of the CPA by the way…
Then the next episode of China takes over the world and becomes a Western like power:
Quote:
China may send observers for Sudan’s April election
Abdalla Ahmed Abdalla, Deputy Chairman of the National Election Commission, met recently with the Ambassador of the People’s Republic of China Li Chengwen. They discussed "preparations for arrival of a Chinese delegation to participate in the monitoring of the coming elections in Sudan," according to the official Sudan News Agency (SUNA).
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33833
Please welcome the State building "a la chinoise". Elections are fake? So let's go! I love when we basically are morally shooting our selves in the foot and end up with a brain damage! :cool:
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Going down?
Quote:
US Congress reps. seek to commemorate Sudan’s CPA
January 20, 2010 (WASHINGTON) — Three Republican congressmen introduced a resolution in the US House of Representatives today to belatedly recognize the fifth anniversary of the signing of Sudan’s Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and call for "urgent and aggressive actions to establish peace in all regions of Sudan."
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33854
I do not know what they call an aggressive action to establish peace in all region of Sudan. Few days ago, AFRICOM was optimist about the elections and USA Special Envoy also. As all the NGOs covering the elections (Carter Centre… ) also as well as the electoral observers. Even China decided to enter in the dance…
The real question is not peace between North and South. Peace as the absence of war is there. Peace as Spinoza describes it… It's another subject.
In fact it's not the election and the insecurity that such exercise brings with him which is the problem. The problem is far much simple. The main problematic in South Sudan nowadays is economical.
Yes the Nuer and the Dinka are fighting… On power and oil… In Warrap or Jonglei…
http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/...nt&rc=1&cc=sdn
But average violence is due to poverty. In Yambio what started the fire last week is just the delay in payment for students' performance incentives during CPA anniversary.
Now, let's have a look at the complex dance of the elections:
Quote:
SPLM candidate vows to work for Sudan’s unity
In a press conference held at the SPLM premises after his arrival to Khartoum and an important reception by supporters, Arman vowed to work for voluntary unity between the north and the south. He also said he would present a political program that the south fought for.
Arman further described his candidacy for the presidency as a "gift" from the south to the north and a greeting to the west and center. He further added that his candidacy restores confidence and rehabilitates the North-South relations.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33866
Quote:
Kiir’s presidential advisor declares independent candidacy for governorship
Alfred Lado Gore, a veteran politician and advisor to President Salva Kiir Mayardit on Diplomatic Affairs on Thursday declared his intention to run for the post of governor for Central Equatoria state as an independent candidate.
Gore’s nomination was turned down last week by the party’s highest political organ, the SPLM Political Bureau, in favor of the incumbent governor Maj. General Clement Wani Konga.
He sounded confident, saying he enjoys popularity among the citizens of Central Equatoria state and criticized the Political Bureau for taking an “unpopular decision among the people” during the selection exercise. . He further explained that he took the decision to contest independently because of “popular demand” on him among the people of Central Equatoria state.
The SPLM official said he would not leave his party but work to maintain its popularity in the state by bringing on board his supporters.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33863
The guy is resigning from his job. At the best moment, South Sudan just do not need a wise guy for diplomacy right now…
Already Salva Kiir is facing internal opposition inside SPLM as the line at national level is Unity and the line at South Sudan level (His line) is independence. And now key people are running independent…
To be frank, this is what happens when in the name of peace, you put every body in the same box and say now you are all friends and you gonna work it out.
Basically there are 2 different approach. The South Sudan one and the DRC one.
In South Sudan, all opponent of North were put in a box called SPLM to ease State building job and avoid civil war (what a result on the last one!). I'll call it the all=1 approach.
In DRC, they ended up with 4 vice presidents and 1 president the 4+1 approach.
I just do not know how this will end up but the 4+1 approach had the advantage to be more "democracy like" than the all=1 approach. Not that DRC is a stunning success, far from it, but at least elections preparation was less messy and civil war was limited to elections results publication.
It's also the problem of having an international community who's taking side unilaterally not for the "good guys" but against the "bad guys".
I mean, if we really want State building to work out and end up with Weberian States supported by a strong administration and promoting Democracy (Here I put a "D" on purpose), the enemy of my enemy is my friend strategy is just too limited.
And let's make a stupid comment: The 4+1 is culturally more accurate most of the time. Even it creates a Hydra which is less easy to manage than the All=1 Chimera.
But let's talk about future (?)
Quote:
UN chief urges Sudanese to discuss post-referendum arrangements
January 22, 2010 (NEW YORK) — UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon urged the Sudanese parties of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) to address the post referendum arrangements to shun war.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33876
Ah… ??? shouldn't we be looking at post elections first.
As JMM says: let's shoot the 25 m target first. But I believe that it's preventive (even preemptive) action.
Step by step gentlemen please. The fubar potential is already there.
And finally the "So Smart" move from Khartoum:
Quote:
Sudan revokes licenses of 26 aid groups in Darfur, warns dozen others
The following groups have their licenses cancelled according to the decree; 1- Prospect Sudan 2- Counterpart International 3- Feed the Children 4- Food for the Hungry 5- Safe Harbor 6- The Halo Trust 7- Right to Play 8- Air Serve 9- Mercy International 10- Global Peace Mission 11- Population Media Centre 12- Sudanese International Development and Relief Association (SIDRA) 13- Royal Dutch Aid 14- Canadian Association for African Development 15- SPEG- Holland 16- Norwegian League for Disabled 17- African Association for Development 18- Health Assistance for Children (HAFC) 19- Nabata Charitable Foundation 20- Impact 21- Cins- Italy 22- Ulfa Aid 23- Joint Projects Organization 24- Arabic Centre for Immigrant Labors 25- Tomp/Germany 26- Human Relief and Peace.
The second set of organizations received an unspecified warning to adjust status in accordance with the law but no details were furnished. They include Stromme Foundation 2. Veterinaraires Sans Forntieres- Germany 3. Planned Parenthood 4. (International Centre for Agricultural Research in Dry Area(ICARDA 5. Deniz Feneri 6. International Blue Crescent Relief 7. Handicap International 8. (Education Action International (Former was University Services Org 9. Movimondo 10. Sudanese Mothers for Peace 11. Panos Sudan 12. Eritrean Islamic Relief 13. One Earth.
A humanitarian war crime to come?
Please have a look at that threat: Humanitarian action: a Just action?
M-A
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And we passed the FUBAR point
Quote:
Sudan’s peace partners failed to reach agreement over parliamentary seats
SPLM wanted more seats for the South in the National Assembly in order to make it possible to block any future attempt to amend the constitution by the elected national parliament which might affect the gains of the CPA in the South or the conduct of referendum itself.
Southern Sudan officials have however observed that NCP had become more intransigent after learning that the SPLM had distanced itself from forging an alliance with it during the upcoming April elections.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33906
When two liars are accusing each others:
Quote:
Khartoum paper prints ‘nonsense’ on Blue Nile troop build-up, says SPLA
January 25, 2010 (RUMBEK) – The Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) Official Spokesman, Maj-Gen. Kuol Deim Kuol, today denied that the South Sudan army is building up forces in Blue Nile State. He was responding to a news article printed in Akhir Lahza.
"This is all nonsense," said the SPLA spokesman in reply. "SPLA is not present in Blue Nile, all our troop are in Northern Upper Nile at Gupa — you see Sudan Armed Forces’s problem is that they mix up borders, and the fact is that the border is not demarcated."
He suggested the problem was perhaps a matter of border demarcation and called upon the Khartoum government to demarcate the borders. "Where is the border between Upper Nile state and Blue Nile state demarcated?" he asked.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33907
I love that! South Sudan is basically a country with moving borders. The border in the South is being discussed. The border in the North also. Wait, they also are negociating for the border with Ethiopia…
The base of a Nation is… A Land, People and an army? Well I guess they have the people, the army but are still missing the Land. At least the limits of their Land.
But North is not in rest about lies…
Quote:
Sudan rejects US allegations of masterminding weapons flow to South
“We heard today from the U.N. that it is not just small arms but some heavier munitions that seem to be flowing in,” Rice said. “We weren’t given specifics on that. But we have seen, in the violence that is taking place in the South, a higher degree of sophistication and lethality of the weapons employed, and that’s a source of concern”.
The American official said that Washington believed some of the weapons were coming from northern Sudan.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33929
Some are also coming from other places, that's for sure. But saying that North are not supplying weapons to the South… Between some and all there is a difference. Just like between some and none.
The elections: going officially fake?
Quote:
NCP endorses Kiir for South Sudan presidency, calls on SPLM to reciprocate
The NCP’s presidential adviser Ali Tamim Fartak told Reuters that the decision not to field a candidate for president of the south, which will vote on January 9, 2011 on independence, was to “maintain a good partnership” with the SPLM.
“And we hope the SPLM will do the same by withdrawing their candidate for the president of the republic,” Fartak said.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33928
Truth is also that in many places, NCP, like any other parties, except SPLM, has not been able to register its candidates. For unknown reasons they did not have the paper work…
The elections can be fair and transparent, if there is only one candidate for each post…
This really questions the concept of elections in post conflict countries. Especially if there is a possibility to end up the conflict just by splitting the place in several pieces.
Not that union is really an option actually but somehow, it should be impossible to come to such end.
We are clearly in a Nation destructuration process now. And it has been endorsed by both parties.
But while China is trying to be democratic… India is not loosing its objective:
Quote:
Sudan, India discuss energetic cooperation
Indian Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas, Shri Murli Deora arrived yesterday to Khartoum met today with his Sudanese counterpart Al-Zubair Ahmed Al-Hassan, to review progress on the existing projects and discuss ways to expand it.
ONGC’s overseas arm of the state-owned ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL) has a 24.125 per cent stake in Sudan’s Block 5A. OVL also has a 25 per cent stake in Sudan’s Greater Nile Oil Project (Block 1, 2 and 4), which produces 280,000 bpd.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33910
War among the SPLM: when the party is fighting among its people ;)
Quote:
SPLM warns against contesting as independent candidates
The Chairman of the SPLM Youth League and member of the party’s Political Bureau, Akol Paul Kordit, announced on Tuesday that the party would not allow any of its members to stand as independent candidates.
Three senior officials of the party have officially declared their independent candidacy for governorship. These include Southern Sudan President’s advisor on Diplomatic Affairs, Alfred Lado Gore for Central Equatoria state, the state minister of Energy and Mining in the Government of National Unity, Angelina Jany Teny for Unity state and the incumbent governor of Eastern Equatoria state, Aloysius Emor Ojetuk.
Jonglei state was also reported to have been processing for an independent candidacy for governorship while many others across the region considered contesting for parliamentary seats as independent candidates.
There are growing fears in the SPLM leadership that many of the candidates nominated by the Political Bureau in Juba may lose elections to independent party candidates who were initially nominated by the people and the Electoral Colleges in the states, but dropped by the Bureau.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33916
SPLM is falling in the old one party trappe. We are supporting the construction of an African China like both in South and North. Well, Uganda and Rwanda are the model for South and they are not really democratically open. Sometimes, I really wonder if we do have a memory. Enlightened dictatorship were the failed solution of the 70th. Now we are building sustainable dictatorship... Could someone explain me what is the difference?
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BECAUSE WE CAN'T FORGET: day 100 for ICRC hostages
First of all, some quick comments on the AU meeting and the Sudan question:
[
Quote:
B]Jean Ping redoute le chaos au Soudan
[/B]Est ce que l’indépendance du sud Soudan ne va pas amener les autres acteurs au Darfour et ailleurs à demander comme le Sud Soudan une indépendance qu’il ne demande pas aujourd’hui etc etc. Alors si ce scenario catastrophe qui j’espère n’arrivera pas se produit alors nous sommes partis dans une situation de chaos.
http://www.gaboneco.com/show_article.php?IDActu=16751
As usual, Mr Ping is asking the million dollars question: what would be the consequences of South Sudan independence on the Darfur conflict?
Will Sudan become an African Poland? Basically, a never ending source of conflicts in the future. Looking at European History shows quickly that splitting a country is several pieces just does not work.
CPA was meant to bring peace but partiction, especially as South is not capable to administrate itself, is a trigger puller "en puissance".
Like in the Wild Wild West, civilization comes with the train? It looks like a bad remake of a Sergio Leones film. But what are the other options?
Developing transport in South Sudan is vital for the economy. But the real question is linking what with who?
Train is may be the best idea for macro development, but the real challenge is at micro level. Yes South Sudan needs a big communication way to export the oil (Not refined in South by the way) but what South needs first is real roads to link cities together. What is the use to put efforts on agriculture if the targeted market is export? Once again, the logic of State Building is driven by the necessity to build the centralized administration apparatus seen as the key to stability. But the best key for stability is first to have a self sufficient country. As long as South will depend on imports for basic food: the conflict possibility will be there.
The people… Big heads seems to always forget that part of the Clausewitz trinity: the people. Elections do not keep quiet the people as efficiently as a full belly… State Building needs a major reform and needs to look at the people as THE KEY actor rather than a ex nihilo empowered intelligencia and elite which get its legitimacy from international economical and political interest rather than from popular legitimacy. David Kilcullen was already pointing this bias several years ago…
Quote:
Sudan/Chad: almost 100 days of ordeal for abducted staff members Gauthier Lefèvre and Laurent Maurice
This Saturday, 30 January, will mark 100 days of captivity for our colleague Gauthier. For Laurent the ordeal will also last 100 days unless he's freed before 17 February. We are continuing to do everything we can to bring about the safe and rapid release of our colleagues. We are in contact with the abductors and with the national and local authorities and are following developments closely.
Our hearts go out to our colleagues and their families. ICRC staff, not only in our Geneva headquarters but all over the world, have shown great support and deep concern throughout this crisis.
And let me insist: we will continue to do everything we can, for as long as is necessary, to bring about the safe and rapid release of Gauthier and Laurent.
http://www.cicr.org/web/eng/siteeng0...terview-290110
Because it makes 100 days and we cannot forget them.
For all the soft rebels with a cause: Keep on fighting!