Foreign Policy - Who Wins in Iraq?

Foreign Policy - Who Wins in Iraq?

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Newspaper headlines consistently remind us of the failures coming out of Iraq. The number of U.S. soldiers who have lost their lives continues to climb. The deaths of Iraqi civilians far exceed what almost anyone expected. And insurgent attacks are growing stronger and more deadly. But, if wars always produce losers, it is also true that most wars have a fair share of winners, too. So, we would like to ask, four years into the fighting, what institutions, countries, ideas, or individuals are better off because of the war? Who, in essence, are Iraq’s winners? Plus, a special essay by Iraqi President Jalal Talabani.

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I had read that article yesterday in the latest edition of Foreign Policy. Interesting outlook from a variety of authors on who is emerging as a winner from the war. I particularly like Gianni Riotta's piece on Old Europe and the comparison between Hannible at Cannae and Rome. Having been stationed in Germany at the start of the war, watched first hand all the protests and listened to Schroder's speeches, I was pleased to see that Riotta acknowledges the dissenters were, for the most part, correct. More importantly, Riotta bring forth a good point. Now that "Old Europe" has some moral high ground, what have they chosen to do with it other than to quietyly gloat.

I always think about Tom Friedman's article "Petropolitics" FP magazine, May/June 2006). His first law says: "The price of oil and the pace of freedom always move in opposite directions in oil-rich petrolist states. According to the First Law of Petropolitics, the higher the average global crude oil price rises, the more free speech, free press, free and fair elections, an independent judiciary, the rule of law, and independent political parties are eroded". As the price of oil continues to remain high, in part because of the continued chaos in Iraq, any chances of expanding democracy in countries such as Egypt, Syria, Iran, etc, dwindles. Another great example of an unintended consequence.

I think this is obvious to just about everyone but not suprisingly, no one picked the United States as a winner, or the Iraqi people. I think the FP story highlights the glaring lack of strategic vision prior to launching the ground invasion in 2003. Hopefully we can take some our strategic lessons to heart for our planners, policy makers, and leaders across the board.

Did anyone see the Prime Numbers portion of the latest FP issue. Their numbers (and yes I know you can make numbers say anything you want) claim we are spending approximately $250,000 a minute in Iraq. Ouch!