I think most insurgencies are pretty well forewarned.
Malaya and Kenya were. Rhodesia was. Viet Nam was. So was Iraq. In fact in the latter, aside from all the obvious signs which the Army War College study, State and the CIA predicted, Saddam himself told us. He publicly released all the prisoners in jails, told us he was going to arm the populace and put weapons and ammo everywhere and that the whole nation would arise to defeat us. Gave the two russian generals who suggested all that gold medals just before we went in. We all missed it or at least missed the total significance. Then compounded that felony by disbanding the Army and putting a bunch of political twits in the CPA -- which should never have been formed. We not only missed the warning signs, we exacerbated the problem by not knowing what to do once the battle for Baghdad was finished.
So we have a an Intel failure (in the sense of lack of force by the community in stating the indications adequately in their ceaseless effort to never be wrong...), followed by political failure, followed by military failure, leading to a full blown insurgency. Which, like most of them, will be fixed by military effort, followed by political improvements. On the Intel improvements, the jury's out...
I further suggest that all those I mention could have been avoided and rechannelled with little effort early on had not a little old fashioned hubris (or our stupid egos...) gotten in the way. I honestly have not paid that much attention to Nepal but I suspect that the same thing holds true.
Could be; ways of the East are
wondrous strange. Circular logic is an intriguing thing. They usually seem to get there but the route is in my observation often unfathomable.
Too many insurgents want to remain soldiers
I spotted an unusual headline this week 'Why do Nepal's former rebels want to join the army?' and returned today to read it fully. Nepal has been at peace since 2006, after a Maoist-inspired insurgency and has had five years of negotiation over the peace agreement, notably the full demobilisation of the 19,000 insurgents in camps:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-15542959
The 'Why do' link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-15922387
Quote:
By Monday, government monitors had interviewed around 16,000 rebels. At the last count, more than half had opted for the army while most of the others went for voluntary retirement...
..Exactly why she and so many of her comrades are so keen to sign up is a mystery given that most former fighters will not get senior positions in the army and where their mandate is limited to a strictly non-combat role.
The agreement states that former Maoists will become forest guards, disaster management personnel and security forces at industrial units...
...The flood of fighters wanting to join the army, however, demonstrates the weak hold the hard-liners within the Maoist party have on their followers.
In a subsequent BBC report it appears the matter may - once again - delay implementation of the peace agreement:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-15981461
Maoists lose at ballot box, may share power?
News from Nepal rarely gets on the front page and I missed this completly until a Foreign Affairs alert landed:
Quote:
The centrist Nepali Congress party won the most votes in last week's general elections, latest results announced on Thursday show.
The Maoists - who formed the single largest party in the previous Constituent Assembly - have been relegated to third place.
In many places this popular rejection would mean an exit from power, it appears not:
Quote:
The BBC's Bhagirath Yogi in Kathmandu says that Nepal's future stability - as well as any new constitution - may well depend on the Maoists joining a national government, which is why intense negotiations are likely to take place in the next few days over the allocation of ministerial portfolios.
Link to a short BBC report:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25135595 and a longer one:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25087224
After a ten year civil war, ending in 2006 and the Maoists winning power via the ballot box, will they change course?