Counterinsurgency Tactics against the Mexican Drug Cartels

Hello!

I am working on my Masters thesis and my topic is looking at the application of counterinsurgency tactics to help combat the Mexican DTOs and help Mexico regain stability and security. The point of my thesis is desigating the Mexican drug issue as a "criminal insurgency," and then looking at successful COIN tactics that might work in this situation.

Several things:

1. I am looking for a thesis reader with Mexico/LatAm expertise and COIN expertise.

2. Second, I am embroiled in contest of wills with my thesis chair who doesn't think COIN has anything to do with Mexico. Sigh.... Anyone have any advice?

3. Here is my chapter list:
Chapter 1 -- A Current State of Affairs
Chapter 2 -- Mexico Drug History
Chapter 3 -- Insurgency History of Mexico
Chapter 4 -- What is COIN? COIN successes/Failures (Includes Colombia)
Chapter 5 -- Drug cartel intelligence update
Chapter 6 -- Current Mexican policy/efforts
Chapter 7 -- Recommended Actions / COIN tactics

I know it's difficult to post advice without seeing what I have so far, but does anyone have any suggestions?

I've read Kilcullen, Nagl, the COIN manual, Tequila Junction, some stuff by George Grayson, and a bunch of good stuff on SWJ, Red Team Journal, etc.

Thanks in advance!

Just some pointers, I'd be intrigued to discuss.

a.) Have you identified the political outcome that the drug cartels are seeking to achieve, by using violence?

b.) How do the drug cartels use violence to advance their political objectives?

Interesting points - I've tried to stay away from the political aspect, but you really need that to make the "insurgency" arguement stick.

1. I think the political gains sought would be dominance over their respective regions and the ability to operate with impunity

2. I think the answer is pretty straigtforward - the cartels are using brutal crimes - beheadings, torture, etc, and $$ to advance their objectives.

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Originally Posted by Semper Fi

Interesting points - I've tried to stay away from the political aspect, but you really need that to make the "insurgency" arguement stick.

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By political, I mean what is the Policy the Drug cartel wants to enforce via violence.

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1. I think the political gains sought would be dominance over their respective regions and the ability to operate with impunity

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So essentially they want de-facto exemption from the legal authority of the Mexican Government? - and I would agree with that

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2. I think the answer is pretty straigtforward - the cartels are using brutal crimes - beheadings, torture, etc, and $$ to advance their objectives.

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Are they using military methods, criminal methods or both? Are they seeking to target the army and police?

I think that one of the reasons why your thesis chair may have problems with applying COIN theory may be semantic - i.e. s/he may not see a connection between sovereignty and drug cartels (this ties in with Wilf's question about political ends). You may want to draw on some of the literature related to gendarmeries vs. "police", and their use of COIN tactics.

If you are solely talking about the use of COIN tactics (i.e. tactics that are associated with the concept of COIN), then you will have to move into a discussion of models of governance and the creation of para-states. One of my students just finished his HRP in a related area - I'll shoot him an email and ask if I can send you a copy if you want.

As for a thesis reader, I would nominate John Fishel :D!

Cheers,

Marc

I would recommend reading Max Manwaring's SSI material, as well as Manwaring/Fishel's Uncomfortable Wars.

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Originally Posted by marct

I think that one of the reasons why your thesis chair may have problems with applying COIN theory may be semantic - i.e. s/he may not see a connection between sovereignty and drug cartels (this ties in with Wilf's question about political ends).

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I agree on the semantics issue. I think, however, that it would be helpful to know what area your thesis advisor believes that your thesis is in. If you are writing an International Relations thesis then you should couch this as an internal insurgency which is, functionally, seeking for large degrees of sovereignty over significant portions of Mexico, which it is. However, if this is an International Studies thesis, then a better way to address this to a Mexicanist would be as a the natural progression of historical insurgencies in Mexico (think Pancho Villa) and a way to deal with it.

I know that someone will come back and say that it shouldn't matter what area it is in, quality is quality. I know. I agree. Nonetheless, it does because people develop their lexicon and frame of reference based on almost arbitrary labels.

As far as counterinsurgency theory, I think that you would get a lot of traction with some of the Rand reports. I believe that they have published their latest report on Iraq, and the success of the Surge. Unless they have changed their findings from when I heard the presentation, they believed that the key issue was that the populace changed loyalties away from the insurgency. Part of the reason that they were able to do that was that the Surge provided safety to the populace. Based on your readings, this should be no big surprise.

Another book that you should look at is Stathis Kalyvis and "The Logic of Violence in Civil War." While his writings do not deal with Mexico directly, and actually not even insurgency explicitly, he lays an excellent theoretical foundation for understanding violence in unstable situations. Be forwarned, though, it is a dense read.

Finally, some unsolicited advice: You have a heck of a task set for yourself based upon your thesis chapters. I just finished my MA thesis myself, and I was fortunate in that rather than having a minimum page requirement, our theses had a maximum page limit. Having seven Chapters sounds more like a book, which you may be willing and able to write, but is an awful lot of work. I think that if instead of treating this as a book, and look at it as the best paper you've ever written you will have an easier time getting a handle on it.

BTW, I don't think I am qualified to be a reader, if by reader you mean someone who could grade your paper, but I would be happy to read through a draft or two, and tell you what I think. I am experienced in both Mexico and COIN, although I know there are far greater experts in this forum.