U.S. seeks pact with Jaish al-Mahdi
U.S. seeks pact with Shiite militia - LATIMES, 12 Sep.
Quote:
U.S. diplomats and military officers have been in talks with members of the armed movement loyal to Muqtada Sadr, a sharp reversal of policy and a grudging recognition that the radical Shiite cleric holds a dominant position in much of Baghdad and other parts of Iraq.
The secret dialogue has been going on since at least early 2006, but appeared to yield a tangible result only in the last week -- with relative calm in an area of west Baghdad that has been among the capital's most dangerous sections.
The discussions have been complicated by divisions within Sadr's movement as well as the cleric's public vow never to meet with Iraq's occupiers. Underlying the issue's sensitivity, Sadrists publicly deny any contact with the Americans or British -- fully aware the price of acknowledging such meetings would be banishment from the movement or worse.
The dialogue represents a drastic turnaround in the U.S. approach to Sadr and his militia, the Mahdi Army. The military hopes to negotiate the same kind of marriage of convenience it has reached in other parts of Iraq with former insurgent groups, many Saddam Hussein loyalists, and the Sunni tribes that supported them. Both efforts are examples of how U.S. officials have sought to end violence by cooperating with groups they once considered intractable enemies ...
I don't see the viability of this ...
The Sadrists are playing a game, and using the time to rebuild their army and overhaul it from top to bottom, ending stronger than when they started. The Sunnis were local insurgents. The Sadrists will be an arm of Iran. Big, big difference, and very dangerous strategy in my opinion.
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2007/...ap4097742.html
The pieces fall into place now
Wow. This is all rather depressing. If taking Sadr out is not a viable option as you suggest, then the Hobson's choice is to wish that he start another rebellion (for which he is too smart), or try to undermine his own forces from within (how likely is this to succeed?).
It makes sense, then, that he would use this opportunity to reorganize and consolidate power, if he senses that the U.S. is trying to fraction the JAM from within.
Well, how about "fracture" or "faction," not "fraction." Sigh ...
Sadr, and Badr, and Iran--Oh My!
Quote:
Originally Posted by
tequila
I will point out that the Badr Organization is wholly a creation of the IRGC, yet we seem to have no problem allying with them or recruiting them for the Iraqi security forces.
I would agree with Tequila's point here, and add to it that Sadr has historically had a very uneasy connection with Iran: in 2003-04 he constantly made not-so-veiled criticisms of Sistani for his Iranian origins and accent, and he has rejected the principle of velayet-e-faqih upon which the Iranian regime is based.
Sadr has also often sought to distinguish himself from SCIRI (whose Badr Brigade fought under Iranian command during the Iran-Iraq war) as an Iraqi nationalist. This was especially evident during the Fallujah campaign in late 2004 and in his position on federalism, but became less convincing with Jaysh al-Mahdi's later prominent role in sectarian cleansing of Sunnis in Baghdad and elsewhere.
The Iranians throw money, and seek to gain influence, wherever they can--the more horses they have in the race the better for them, and they're sometimes able to play one ally off against the other. The SCIRI (now SIIC) alliance with Iran is a deep, strategic one. The Sadr one is tactical--he needs the money, guns, EFPs, etc., and Tehran can't have the most popular Shi'ite political movement off-side. Maliki and the various wings of al-Dawa are somewhere between the two.
To be provocative, I would even argue that there is an interesting parallel between Iran's support for Sadr and US support for the al-Anbar Salvation Council or cooperation with the 1920 Revolution Brigades: its all very "the enemy of my enemy is my friend (for now, at least)" stuff. In the case of Sadr, that marriage of convenience could go on for some time, perhaps as long as there are US forces in Iraq (and no doubt he's using the "look, the Americans are rearming the Ba'thists!" argument with Tehran).