What if Turkey had allowed us to enter Iraq through Turkey in 2003. Given all that has happened since then would this have made much of a difference?
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What if Turkey had allowed us to enter Iraq through Turkey in 2003. Given all that has happened since then would this have made much of a difference?
The country would still become occupied only quicker.Quote:
Originally Posted by cobot
There was stiff resistance in the south while resistance in Tikrit (Saddam's hometown) was virtually non-existent.
It might have saved civilian and coalition lives.
What-ifs are highly enjoyable - my own favorite is "what if we had actually destroyed the Republican Guard divisions in the Persian Gulf War instead of stopping the ground war at 100 hours?" Throw in enough tenuous logic, and the destruction of the RG means the fall of Saddam at the hands of the Shi'a rebellion, the complete disengagement of US forces from the ME, and no September 11th.Quote:
Originally Posted by cobot
Now, if you think that "what-if" is a stretch, I think your what-if is even harder to imagine having a major impact on the course of post-May 2003 Iraq. The screwups went far beyond the late deployment of Odierno's 4th ID, which was in-country soon after the shooting stopped anyways. The problems, as I know have been discussed ad nauseam around here, were the result of basically a lack of Phase IV planning, which resulted in no attempts to stop the looting and restore order and services, the disbanding of the Army, and all the other problems that followed.
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I can't possibly see how attacking from Turkey with the 4th ID instead of with just some Special Forces units would have made all the difference.
Matt
Quote:
Originally Posted by MattC86
In the long term it might have helped with PKK issues considering that if we had worked with Turkey in the invasion as apparently as that they may have
1- Goofed and got in the way by fighting us and been thinned out quite a bit
2- Thought twice before thinking they could start attacking Turks once things starting settling down.
Just a thought
Plus a troop increase of about 25% on the ground. They would've secured Mosul and Tikrit among other places leaving the 101st available for Baghdad. Their deployment through Turkey would've sent political shock waves through a lot of places. Think about it.Quote:
Originally Posted by MattC86
Attacking through Turkey would have made little difference. Our problems in Iraq were/are not rooted in the axes used during the kinetic/manuever phase. The Iraqi security forces still would have been disbanded/ignored, the tribal leaders still would have been marginalized, the water and electricity still would not have been turned back on, and we still would have reached a point where we faced insurgent momentum with too few boots on the ground.
The PKK have rarely been so foolish as to attack US forces or USG elements. IMO, they would not have started doing so with a division rolling through their front yard. Besides, there are segments of the Turkish military-industrial complex that benefit from the continued existence of the PKK, in the vacuum created by the demise of the Cold War.
Cheers,
The tangential effect of Turkey allowing that would have made a political difference on several counts; the presence of the 4th in the north would have meant that 3d ID was not going to be moved out immediately and thus might have made a difference in the post attack operations and conduct of the 3d ID. Plus another Div available is another Div available.Quote:
Originally Posted by redbullets
Still, no way for either of us to know for sure, didn't happen.
Agree in part, our major screwups. Pre attack lack of intel allowed Saddam to plan for the post attack phase far better than we knew -- even though he literally told us what he was going to do. That followed by poor training and planning for the post attack phase allowed an insurgency that could have been contained far more easily had we not disbanded the Army and Police, a move that effectively tripled or quadrupled the insurgency factor.Quote:
... Our problems in Iraq were/are not rooted in the axes used during the kinetic/manuever phase. The Iraqi security forces still would have been disbanded/ignored, the tribal leaders still would have been marginalized, the water and electricity still would not have been turned back on, and we still would have reached a point where we faced insurgent momentum with too few boots on the ground.
There are enough screwups to cover a lot of folks. Had there been fewer errors, mostly by the Army, there probably would have been enough troops to do the job. Again, no way to know, that's not the way it played out.
The tenuous premise being that Iraq's neighbors miss the window to act in their own interest. Destroying the RG would undoubtedly leave the Kurdish peshmerga the most powerful organized force in Iraq but at the same time eliminate the only reliable check against an organized militancy in the Shia south from emerging. The question becomes whether or not Iran would've stayed out the affair if the RG no longer existed and if the Gulf States would suffer Tehran's interference.Quote:
Originally Posted by MattC86
The Turkey "what-if" is a bit more straightforward since it has no implications beyond placing a fourth division in country a month earlier.