When Conflicting Civilizations Collide
18 April Real Clear Politics commentary - When Conflicting Civilizations Collide by Dennis Byrne.
Quote:
In H.G. Wells' "Time Machine," the helplessly fattened Eloi spend most of their time waiting around their pleasant surroundings to be snatched away by cannibal Morlocks. Those succulent pinkish Eloi who luckily aren't invited for dinner this time can only wait their turn, not so much in fear, but--simpletons that they are--in resigned ignorance.
Though he wrote it more than 100 years ago, Wells nonetheless had many of today's Americans nailed. Today's Eloi are Americans whose only "strategy" for dealing with the dreadful and grisly terrorist assaults on us is to pull back and wait for the next one...
The Moussaoui trial should underscore the fact that we're fighting brutish enemies over more than power and money. We're fighting over values and beliefs. Moussaoui unapologetically claims that the Koran requires Islamic world domination and that non-Islamic nations must pay tribute to Islamic ones. "We have to be the superpower. You have to be subdued," he said. And in pursuit of that goal, his only regret is that he couldn't fly a planeload of innocents into the Capitol.
Moussaoui understands it better than Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) and others who see little of global import in our conflicts and counsel a vague sort of withdrawal. Moussaoui sees beyond the gotcha politics of the Beltway and correctly regards this as an engagement of fundamentally conflicting civilizations: One more advanced and compassionate against another--violent and monstrous--that still is fighting in the Dark Ages, against Crusader spooks.
The fight over how and why the Iraq war is being fought is a legitimate one. But Iraq is just one part of the larger and more important debate. That bigger debate should have been settled by now....
A 'Power & Money' Observation
From Bloomberg
Quote:
Anyone wondering why Americans show no signs of abandoning their vehicles as gasoline fetches almost $4 gallon can find the answer in Europe, where the price of petrol hasn't been that low in at least six years.
Gasoline rose 30 percent in the U.S. this year to a record $3.962 a gallon on May 29, according to AAA, the nation's biggest motoring club. In Germany, a gallon costs $8.33, more than double 2002 levels. The highest is $9.69 in Norway, where taxes are designed to curb consumption in the world's third-biggest exporter of crude oil, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
From the Economist (prices are in liters and there are ~3.78 liters in a gallon for us non-metric types )
Quote:
HALF of the world's population enjoys fuel subsidies. This estimate, from Morgan Stanley, implies that almost a quarter of the world's petrol is sold at less than the market price. The cheapest petrol is in Venezuela, at 5 cents per litre. That makes China's pump price of 79 cents seem expensive, but even this is a bargain compared with $1.04 in the United States and $2.35 in Germany (see chart).
As the gap has widened between soaring international prices and fixed domestic prices, so has the cost of subsidies. Indeed, budgetary strains are now forcing some governments to lift prices.
Agree in Sentiment, but ...
I agree that in the West in general we are beginning to resemble the Eloi, and seem to be far more concerned about the abstract (Global Warming) than the concrete (terrorism) threats. That said, I do believe that the premise of civilizations clashing is not really where we are at. If we were this wouldn't be a small war, it would be a big one. Until things become existential I don't expect us westerners to be any less complacent than we are. Re: the gas issue take a look at Charles Krauthammers interesting article. It seems that everyone has a tipping point.
The Cost of $200/Barrel Oil
From the LA Times
Quote:
It takes about 7,000 tons of bunker-fuel to fill the tanks of a 5,000-container cargo ship for a trip from Shanghai to Los Angeles. Over the last year and half, the cost of that fuel has jumped 87% to $552 a ton, according to the World Shipping Council, boosting the cost of a fill-up to more than $3.8 million.
"To put things in perspective, today's extra shipping cost from East Asia is the equivalent of imposing a 9% tariff on East Asian goods entering North America," said Rubin of CIBC World Markets. "At $200 per barrel, the tariff equivalent rate will rise to 15%."
China's Export Machine Threatened by Rising Costs
The June 30th WSJ has an interesting report on China's manufacturing sector
Quote:
Many Chinese economists and officials think the country has relied too much on cost-cutting and simple production models to boost exports. "Such a high dependence on foreign trade is not good for China," says Yu Yongding, a Beijing-based researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a government think tank. For the U.S. and Japan, he says, trade is equivalent to around 20% the value of gross domestic product. For China, it is about 75%.
Meanwhile on this side of the pond Mr. Fisher of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas provides some insights on inflation...
Quote:
It is only natural to cast about for a solution—any solution—to avoid the fiscal pain we know is necessary because we succumbed to complacency and put off dealing with this looming fiscal disaster. Throughout history, many nations, when confronted by sizable debts they were unable or unwilling to repay, have seized upon an apparently painless solution to this dilemma: monetization. Just have the monetary authority run cash off the printing presses until the debt is repaid, the story goes, then promise to be responsible from that point on and hope your sins will be forgiven by God and Milton Friedman and everyone else.
We know from centuries of evidence in countless economies, from ancient Rome to today’s Zimbabwe, that running the printing press to pay off today’s bills leads to much worse problems later on. The inflation that results from the flood of money into the economy turns out to be far worse than the fiscal pain those countries hoped to avoid.
Earlier I mentioned the Fed’s dual mandate to manage growth and inflation. In the long run, growth cannot be sustained if markets are undermined by inflation. Stable prices go hand in hand with achieving sustainable economic growth. I have said many, many times that inflation is a sinister beast that, if uncaged, devours savings, erodes consumers’ purchasing power, decimates returns on capital, undermines the reliability of financial accounting, distracts the attention of corporate management, undercuts employment growth and real wages, and debases the currency.
Culture and the Clash of Civilizations
I believe Mr. Thomas Freidman does a good job of describing the challenges of the clash of civilizations in his book "The Lexus and the Olive Tree." The central point to this book is that Civilizations must choose to between modernity, symbolized in the Lexus, and holding on to traditions (the Olive three) through globalization. This is not an easy process and institutions and governance are key to the shift toward modernity via globalization. Friedman defines Globalization as the international system that has replaced the post-Cold War system. This new system, (LEXUS) has broken down barriers and will lead to greater economic prosperity through the integration of markets, finance, technology and telecommunications. Central to this system is the US role. Moreover, the United States should bring integration, military might and partnership to deal with globalization. Friedman describes the United States role, through the use of the armed forces, as being the "hidden fist” that keeps the system operating and by maintaining an open hand in order to build partnership, inspire and lead. As civilizations inevitable collide I believe it is our role to model and assist those who want to join the modern international framework.
**The views expressed in this are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy of the Department of the Army, DoD or the US Government. **
