Deterrence of Iranian Nukes
If the Iranians continue to jack us around regarding their nukes perhaps the time may come that the President should announce that he has directed the U.S. Air Force to target intercontinental missiles with nuclear warheads on Tehran, Tarriz, Mashbad and Eshafan. The understanding would be that if they shoot nukes at anyone in the world those cities will be black holes in the ground within one hour.
The same message to Pakistan regarding Islamabad, Karachi and Lahore might show them we're tired of trying to prove to them what nice guys we are. Okay, have it your way, you've been asking for it a few decades now, now you can live with the consequences.
It's probably inevitable...
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Pete
If the Iranians continue to jack us around regarding their nukes perhaps the time may come that the President should announce that he has directed the U.S. Air Force to target intercontinental missiles with nuclear warheads on Tehran, Tarriz, Mashbad and Eshafan.
As Sec Gates pointed out, there are not a lot of really good options for stopping Iran's nuclear program with military force. Short of completely taking the country over it would be pretty tough to stop the Iranians from getting nukes. The second order effects with Hezbollah, Hamas, Mahdi Army, as well as the effects on the moderates like the Green Movement would not be good. The struggle between Ahmajinedad/the Revolutionary Guards, the mulllahs, and the moderates would be affected - perhaps destroying the best chance of truly changing Iran. From the Iranian's point of view, as long as the regime's survival is at risk they will continue to pursue nukes - us hitting them with some airstrikes will only delay the inevitable.
The Saudis, Qatar, UAE etc are all prepping to deter Iran conventionally. There's no reason why Israel/the US can't use deterrence against Iran. The only big danger is them spreading nuclear material or technology to terrorists. In some ways, Iran having nukes would stabilize the situation somewhat as they would have to worry about escalation.
If Iran gets nukes, I expect we will make some explicit statements about deterring them with our own nukes.
It's basically inevitable...
A decent article about deterring Iran is here.
V/R,
Cliff
Dialogue with Iran over nuclear strategy needed?
Going back decades in arms control IIRC one of the gains from strategic dialogue with the USSR (civil and military) was how much each side learnt about the realities of having nuclear weapons. Not my subject, somehow I doubt there has been any dialogue by official and non-official Iran with outsiders on these matters.
There are some very wise academics and ex-policy makers who could contribute from the USA, Graham Allison and James Schlesinger come to mind.
Has Iran developed nuclear weapons without a strategy? If they have I do wonder how much relevance deterrence is.