The next small war is the unfinished one

While we are largely focused on Iraq, and not without reason, it should be noted that Islamist Global Insurgency is alive and well. Not only is the Al Qaeda making a come back of sorts in Afghanistan through their affiliates with more frequent and deadlier attacks, they’re also poised to challenge NATO in their new role there, and NATO’s ability to hang tough after taking casualties is still an unknown. AQ or their affiliates are active on every continent, not simply Afghanistan and Iraq. In the shadows they have made impressive headway and now have become a viable threat in Southern Thailand, Bangladesh, and Nigeria, among other locations.

You can also witness them begin to mobilize forces in or near our border. For one, Mexico's citizen's are rapidly converting to Islam, at one time quicker than any other nation percentage wise. The potential security stakes to our nation are obvious. 3d generation Mexican gangs have already thoroughly penetrated and have established networks throughout our nation. Can you imagine a Mexican Mafia with an Islamist tilt? They can also threaten Mexico's Oil Industry, which will impact our economy. Note that Nigeria also is a key oil producer; approximately 25% of our oil for the U.S. East Coast comes from Nigeria. Of course AQ ideologically motivated groups permeate several other countries in the Horn of Africa and SE Asia, I only use these to illustrate that we’re already involved in the next “small” war, although it is global, it is largely sub-national.

If the explosion in the UK turns out to be due to a terrorist attack or sabotage, then it is probably the first of many responses to al-Zawahri’s call for Muslims everywhere to attack the Oil Industry. If true it will probably result in several oil pipelines and storage depots being targeted since they are relatively soft targets, along with more critical infrastructure being attacked if they identify and access it. The economic effects will potentially be devastating for a short period, until we can mitigate the psychological impact and explain that in the long run these attacks are just pin pricks (so we hope). Again this isn’t a war about “where”, because it isn’t about ground necessarily, it is about bringing us to bay and allowing the formation of the New Caliphate. It is about ground in the Middle East and North Africa, but it will be fought elsewhere to a large measure.

The next small war is happening now; we have simply been trying to marginalize it until we finish in Iraq; however, that won’t work. We can’t clean up one area, then move to the next etc. and hope to be successful. We’ll be losing too much in the meantime.