What will India do? (Continued)
Carl asked a few posts back:
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what do you all think India will do? How will they do it?
In last few days I have an opportunity to listen to a discussion on Mumbai and the South Asian context, with Indian and Pakistani experts in the lead. I am trying to get them to contribute.
Meantime I posed Carl's question to them and both sides answers were remarkably similar. No, Indian may indulge in rhetoric about bombing the training camps, but is unlikely to anyway, indeed Indian politicians are wary of making any decisions. India currently has no legislation of terrorism, the relatively recent law was repealed - which was cited as evidence of political involvement.
Secondly the remarkable attitude of Indian civil society (remarkable to me) after Mumbai, to refuse to politicise the attacks, even militant groups minimised their impact and two such groups have taken a more secular approach.
Third, India-Pakistani relations are highly civilised. Yes, regional counter-terrorism agreements remain un-ratified (SAARC agreements x2) and the two intelligence agencies (RAW and ISI) have their own approach - once described IIRC as 'dangerous games' by a UK observer.
Hopefully some of the clouds of war lifted.
Is Pakistan falling apart?
A superb article from The Independent by Patrick Cockburn, sub-titled
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It has suffered disaster after disaster. Its people have lived through crisis upon crisis. Its leaders are unwilling or unable to act. But is it really the failed state that many believe?
And ends with:
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The Pakistani state may not function very well but it is not failing, and – a pity – current crises may not even change it very much.
Link:http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...t-2100865.html
Nothing like some context and analysis.
The many different challenges Pakistan faces
Hat tip to Londonistani on AbuM, for commending a Reuters article based on a Pakistani journalist's article 'Ruses that distract from a CT strategy'.
The original article:http://www.mosharrafzaidi.com/2010/1...a-ct-strategy/
Which opens with:
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One of the important but widely neglected debates that needs unpacking in Pakistan is the one between counterinsurgency, counterterrorism and counter-extremism. This is a uniquely Pakistani challenge, and looking elsewhere for inspiration may be of limited utility.
(Ends with)Nine years and 30,000 deaths later how can the government be taken seriously in the absence of a CT strategy?
Reuters:http://blogs.reuters.com/pakistan/20...list-too-long/
Ends with:
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Being scared of al Qaeda is silly in most countries where statistically you have more reason to worry about being killed in a road accident. Being scared of al Qaeda in Pakistan is also an insult to a country which is far more resilient than it is given credit for. But being stupid about the risks to Pakistan by thinking that all we need is one over-arching solution is well … just stupid.
AbuM commentary:http://www.cnas.org/blogs/abumuqawam....html#comments
A central question I've not seen before:
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The epicentre of religious extremism is the institution of the political articulation of faith in Pakistan.
We are always talking at cross-purposes here
Hat tip to Watandost for locating the following IHT article; the annual 'strategic dialogue' between Pakistan and USA is happening - on what may not happen:
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If there were to really be what diplomats call a full and frank exchange, the dialogue might go like this..
Very short and accurate:http://watandost.blogspot.com/2010/1...-dialogue.html
Latest bombing in Karachi
Rethinking Objectives in Afghanistan
An article on FP blog by Philip Mudd and excellent IMHO; subtitled:
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The United States invaded Afghanistan to defeat al Qaeda. It should stay that way.
Link:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...istan?page=0,0
Ends with:
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For the future, nation-building will remain a mirage in Afghanistan, with nine years of futility as proof. But destroying al Qaeda is a reachable goal, and a far more salient one for the United States. We've now turned these priorities around.
At sea relations are good
A Pakistani Navy officer has taken command of CTF-151, the multi-national flotilla engaged in anti-piracy patrols on the Gulf of Aden and the Somali Basin:http://www.cusnc.navy.mil/articles/2010/CMF073.html
Pakistan has commanded CTF-150 further east before. the contributors are:
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Ships from Australia, Republic of Korea, Pakistan, Singapore, Thailand, Turkey, the U.K. and U.S. The command staff included personnel from Bahrain, Canada, Turkey, the U.K. and U.S.