the real issue here is the blockade
The flotilla was clearly a PR exercise--no surprise there. And the Israelis blew it.
However, the real issue here is the current blockade of Gaza, which is counterproductive: the restrictions are capricious, and most goods that are prohibited have nothing to do with their strategic potential; it allows Hamas to divert blame for its own shortcomings; and it has resulted in a massive tunnel industry (including not only the tunnels under the border, but smuggling chains reaching across the Sinai, throughout Egypt, and into Sudan, Yemen, and elsewhere).
The net result is that it has become easier to smuggle weapons into Gaza than it was before the current draconian restrictions on civilian goods were introduced. I had dinner with a tunnel operator (and former weapons smuggler) in Gaza in January, who noted that while he used to get $5000 a container in the old days for bringing things under the border, he now only gets $50 because of the proliferation of tunnels. Indeed, some days of the month (when the Ramallah PA pays Gaza salaries) he earns more money driving a taxi.
Don't assume either that there is much sophisticated strategic thinking that goes into the restrictions, either: they're driven by domestic Israeli politics, bureaucratic process, inertia, and even capricious whim.
(image below: The Economist)
http://media.economist.com/images/na...023NAC266B.jpg
Hmmmm what to do, what to do
Perhaps I'm missing something here, but--
--let's see there is a hostage state(GAZA) note reports that even though the
Egyptians opened the doors Hamas won't let anyone leave.
--The Blockade is an untenable long term solution, but if they don't Hamas does
resupply and does continue to shoot rockets sooo what should they do
I think I like Rex's PA deal but is that even doable considering the parties that would have to agree to fulfill it and the umm(diverse) opinions on the situation as a whole?
I guess the main question I have is why'd the Turks let this particular group run a flotilla since you can be darn sure they were well aware the intent. And even more importantly if they'll allow something like that is this whole Turkey/Iran Nuclear exchange even worth considering.
I don't disagree with anyone on how this has played out in narrative terms for Israel but seriously what are the alternatives if the only ones supposed to play by the rules are them while everyone else does whatever they want?
Still some level heads out there...
Flotilla Attack the Deadly Symptom of a Failed Policy
Quote:
...the incident is an indictment of a much broader policy toward Gaza for which Israel does not bear sole responsibility...
International condemnation and calls for an inquiry will come easily, but many who will issue them must acknowledge their own role in the deplorable treatment of Gaza that formed the backdrop to today's events. the policy of isolating Gaza, seeking to turn its population agauinst Hamas, and endorsing a "West Bank first" approach was not an exclusively Israeli one.[...]
[...]...opening the humantarian tap is not an approapriate answer to a policy whose fundamental premise is morally callous and politically counter-productive. Instead, Gaza should be open to normal traffic with adequate international end-use monitoring.
If anything, recent events should result, in time, to an international monitoring regime which should allay Israeli security concerns whilst ensuring that appropriate humanitarian aid reaches Gaza without it being "hijacked" by "undesirable" elements. What amazes me is the turn-about in Turko-Israeli affairs (understandible sine the Justice Party came to power, but the rapidity of that deterioration is striking). Also, the role of Cyprus, long a "hive of scum and villanny" realy needs to be brought into greater relief.
American, 19, Among Gaza Flotilla Dead
The first of many narratives that will emerge.
Quote:
"They [Israeli commandos] were trying to land on the boat. So obviously there was this hand-to-hand combat and during that process the people on the boat were basically able to disarm some of the soldiers because they did have guns with them," Burney told Reuters. "So they basically took the guns away from them and took the cartridges out and threw them away."
Asked if anyone had used the guns against the Israeli commandos, Burney said, "No, not at all."
"Yes, we took their guns. It would be self defence even if we fired their guns," Bulent Yildirim, chairman of the IHH, said.
"We told our friends on board we will die, become martyrs, but never let us be shown... as the ones who used guns," he said, adding that people shouted that the weapons should not be used.
"By this decision, our friends accepted death, and we threw all the guns we took from them into the sea," Yildirim said.
We didn't do anything, but if we did it would justified.
Quote:
"Turkey will never forget such an attack on its ships and its people in international waters. Turkey's ties with Israel will never be the same again," Turkish President Abdullah Gul told a news conference. "Israel made one of the greatest mistakes in its history. It will see in time what a huge mistake it made," he said.
On the British domestic political front ...
In an article in the Spectator, Flotilla Follies, Daniel Korski states that ...
Quote:
Two groups in the Conservative party that have worried most about Con-Lib government are the social conservatives and the neo-conservatives. The latter have been particularly worried about UK relations with Israel. There is a real concern in parts of the Conservatives Party that three factors would come together to sour Anglo-Israeli relations: what the neo-conservatives see as the Foreign Office’s knee-jerk Arabism, the presence of many supposed Arabists in Cameron-Hague’s teams, and the anti-Israel bias exhibited by many leading Liberal Democrats. Whatever the truth of these allegations, they are held with considerable fervour.
But Nick Clegg’s reaction to the conflict shows that the Lib Dem leader is both holding to the middle-of-the-road line put out by the Foreign Secretary and shedding the anti-Israel sentiment of old. The deputy Prime Minister, who campaigned against the Gaza blockade before joining the coalition government, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme Israel had "every right" to protect its people from terrorist threats. His addition -- to ask if it was “in Israel's long-term security interest to have so many people confined in that way” -- is hardly radical. David Cameron himself called the raid on the Gaza aid flotilla "completely unacceptable" and deplored the loss of life.
Gaza embargo, by the numbers
For those interesting in detailed data on the Gaza embargo, the best source are the bimonthly reports produced by PalTrade and the World Bank, which you'll find here, along with a great deal of other economic data.
The most recent monitoring report on the World Bank website at the moment shows that, in January 2010, some 1,933 trucks entered Gaza to supply the 1.6 million people there. This compares to an average of 10,400 per month prior to the current, draconian restrictions being put in place in early 2007.
In short, around 8,400 trucks less than the normal civilian/commercial needs of Gaza are currently entering each month. Some of this material is simply not getting in--that represents shortages, and decreased economic activity. Some of this is coming in via the tunnels, smuggled from Egypt.
Let's say, for the sake of argument, that half of the shortfall is smuggled. This would be equivalent of 4,200 trucks of material entering Gaza (via the tunnels) with no Israeli inspection each month--compared to the old pre-embargo system where almost everything entering Gaza went through an Israeli crossing point, and hence was inspected. As I suggested earlier, the perverse effect of the blockade, therefore, has been to spur the growth of a massive smuggling industry (scores or hundreds of tunnels, thousands of workers) which has given Israel less ability to interdict contraband.
(On a side note, I would argue that Israel's pre-blockade restrictions were too draconian and wrong too, but that's another issue.)