We're in almost total agreement, I differ only on
the Constabulary in Germany post WW II. It was more dog and pony show than effective -- but it did work well enough to deter any resurgence, no doubt about that.
There were some minor successes other than Greece but IMO you got this 110% correct:
Quote:
"If it was new territory, then the mistakes we made would be understandable and pardoned, but the mistakes we're making now could have been avoided if we didn't officers who blindly adhere to the war is war mindset. The American people should speak out strongly against incompetence in the Army. Losing our young people in pursuit of national security is a terrible necessity, but losing them to incompetence is not acceptable."
Stay alert and keep your head down. ;)
No denying the work of the Greeks nor the idiocy
of the KKE and its armed factions but we helped a great deal, not least in getting Papagos in position and training said Greeks. An even bigger contributor was really the USSR / Yugoslavia break up. There would have been no success at the time without all those elements.
They're not ever justified
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Rank amateur
...I'm sure we agree on the first sentence too. I don't think genocide, or ethnic cleansing, are ever justified. You probably don't consider them military tactics. My only comment is that if you don't clearly state they're never justified, some nut will attempt to justify them as military tactics. (Sadly, some nuts already have.) But at least once we had to go nuclear. Hopefully, we won't need to again, but we might.
but you're correct, genocide or ethnic cleansing are not military tactics in any sense, though such tactics may be used in the process of committing the crime. To my mind it is a crime -- but a difficult one to curtail. We can say they're never justified and most of the world does and has for some time said just that. Unfortunately, saying so doesn't seem to stop it from occurring even today.
As to whether it's a justification for war, my sensing is that it is not. If it were wars would be started to stop it at each occurrence yet they rarely are. The few occasions like Kosovo where that was invoked generally end up causing more problems than they solve.
United external pressure from the rest of the world is more effective -- IF one can develop a united front. That seems to be almost impossible; nations tend to be far from altruistic and to be pretty selfish. Bad problem with no easy solutions.
A long journey towards more boots on the ground...
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Rank amateur
The problem with price is that it's a function of supply and demand. High price could indicate few people willing to plant them (low supply) or that AQI has a lot of money and a lot of IEDs. (high demand.)
R.A.,
Price can in fact serve as a measure of the capability and desire to engage in the insurgency.
You have half of it when you state that high price indicates low supply. Assuming that AQI has a fair amount/'excess amount' of money (a reasonable assumption since we are targeting the money supply of AQI) does not mean however that the supply of people willing to do this type of work (the issue that we are measuring) is limited.
http://counterterrorismblog.org/ please see 'Extremism's Deep Pockets' by Michael Jacobson as just one open source example of the tactic of targeting funding)
The demand function can be described mathematically as:
Qd=a +bP+cM+dPr+eT+fPe+gN
Where
Qd = Quantity Demanded
P= Price of the Good or Service
M=Consumer Income
Pr=Price of Related Goods or Services
T=Taste Patterns of Consumers
Pe=Expected Price of the Good in Some Future Period
N=Number of Consumers in the Market
a = Intercept Parameter (when P,M,Pr,T,Pe, and N all equal zero)
b,c,d,e,&f are slope parameters.
So let's check our equations prediction (low supply = high demand) against an in-country observation.
Given a state of ~XX% unemployment in your country (which includes you 'Joe-Iraqi') your family asks you (the patriarch) when water, food, and shelter will be purchased (electricity is out again, your food spoiled in yesterdays 125F heat, the cities pumps have not delivered water to your home, the markets are closed due to security concerns, and you and your family can't stay in your house due to security issues). You know that you will need to pay XX dollars to get your family through Y time.
What do you do? Your choices include:
a) Food/Water/Shelter is available so you do not have to participate (you obviously live in America - Lucky You!). b) Sell your possessions. c) Ask your tribe or militia to help you out yet again. d) Join the local CLC/Iraqi Army and hope the American funding continues and retribution does not come to you or your family. e) leave the country f) Participate in smuggling, crime, etc. g) Take X dollars to shoot at the infidels. h) Take XX dollars to plant an IED. i) Take XXX dollars to act as lookout for an IED attack. j) Take XXX dollars to push the IED trigger.
Supply and Demand are metrics which can be used to measure the insurgency. The 60,000 dollar question is how accurate are the estimates for the variables used in the model.
Steve
Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy?
Of course Hezbollah is an iranian proxy. In fact the organization was founded by dispatched units of the Pasdara(Irani Revolutionary Guard) in the Bekaa Valley of Lebanon in the beginning of the eighties.
Russian AT Weapons vs Israeli Tanks in Lebanon
Russian Anti-Armour Weapons and Israeli Tanks in Lebanon
Mikhail Barabanov
Quote:
According to various Israeli and Western sources, during the course of battle in Lebanon, between 46 and 50 Merkava main battle tanks (of the 400 deployed) and 14 APCs were hit by anti-tank weapons, including 22 incidents where tank armour and 5 cases where APC armour was penetrated. Another six tanks and at least one APC were blown up by mines and IDEs.
Of those tanks hit by anti-tank weapons, 18 were the newest Merkava Mk 4 version (from the 401st armoured brigade), and six of these had their armour penetrated. Twenty-three tank and five APC crew members were killed. A large number of anti-tank guide-missiles and RPG grenades hit the tanks, but in most cases these did little damage. It was reported that one of the Merkava Mk 4 tanks survived 23 hits from anti-tank guided—missiles before it was finally disabled and its armour penetrated. All penetrations of Merkava armour, according to Israeli statements, were achieved by the Konkurs, Metis-M and Kornet-E anti-tank guided—missiles, and the RPG-29 rocket-propelled grenades. If one considers that 22 of 50 tanks had their armour penetrated, that gives a penetration rate of 44% (and only 33% for the Merkava Mk 4). According to Israeli Army statistics, the penetration rate for tanks during the 1982 Lebanon War was 47%, and 60% during the 1973 War. The crew casualties rate was also much higher in 2006 at 0.5 crew member for each damaged tank, while the rate per disabled tank in 1973 War is one full crew member.
The number of irrecoverable tank losses among those damaged, according to recent Israeli publications, was five altogether, of which two (a Merkava Mk 2 and Mk 4) were destroyed by IDEs and three tanks were completely burned out after hits by guided anti-tank guided—missiles. This attests to the high degree of protection afforded by the most modern Merkava Mk 4 tanks, which could be damaged only by the most modern anti-tank weapons with powerful tandem HEAT warheads hitting, it would seem, weakened armoured zones.
http://mdb.cast.ru/mdb/2-2007/item2/item1/
Approximate IDF Casualties analysis
Here is a breakdown of actual IDF casualties from the Lebanon, that I have cobbled together from Israeli sources.
Of the 23 members of the armoured corps killed in action, 15 were killed by ATGMs, and 7 by mines.
The cause of death for the other 1 is not recorded specifically. Most probably gunfire from commanding "heads out".
Over 50% of the armour casualties are attributable to just 3 incidents.
The ATGM deaths are all accounted for by just 6 hits.
For APCs 14 were hit by ATGM killing 7 embarked troops in 2 incidents. 3 APCs hit mines killing 5 infantrymen in two incidents (4 and 1). 90% of these casualties all occurred in one night.
In comparison, 14 infantrymen were killed by ATGMs fired at buildings.
The vast majority of casualties were still incurred by the infantry, in gun battles.
Hizbullah Spying Through 'Facebook'
Hizbullah Spying Through 'Facebook'
5 Elul 5768, 05 September 08 10:16
by Gil Ronen
(IsraelNN.com) According to the intelligence community in Israel, Hizbullah terrorists are becoming increasingly computer savvy, using Facebook to learn more about IDF soldiers, potential targets for kidnappings.
Yeshiva World News reported that IDF intelligence officials are concerned that soldiers may unwittingly give the enemy information through social networking sites or even arrange to meet an internet companion who is in fact a terrorist.
Retired IDF general: Deterrence is our best option against Hezbollah
Retired IDF general: Deterrence is our best option against Hezbollah
Giora Eiland says another war between Israel and Hezbollah 'will be a war between Israel and the State of Lebanon and will wreak destruction on the State of Lebanon.'
Haaretz 16 December 2010 /Reuters
Quote:
Mass devastation in Lebanon is Israel's best deterrence against the powerful Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, former Israel Defense Forces general and national security adviser Giora Eiland said Thursday, warning that Israel's home front would suffer greatly in any confrontation between the two sides.
"Our only way of preventing the next war, and of winning if it happens anyway, is for it to be clear to everyone ... that another war between us and Hezbollah will be a war between Israel and the State of Lebanon and will wreak destruction on the State of Lebanon," Eiland told Israel Radio. "And as no one - including Hezbollah, the Syrians or the Iranians - is interested in this, this is the best way of creating effective deterrence."
Eiland also cautioned that guerrilla group, which has an arsenal of thousands of rockets, would inflict heavy damage on the Israeli home front if war broke out.
Israel last sent its troops into southern Lebanon in 2006, after Hezbollah abducted and killed two Israeli soldiers in a cross-border attack. Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah's Iranian and Syrian backers have stoked expectations of renewed violence in Lebanon.
"Israel does not know how to beat Hezbollah," said Eiland, who served as national security adviser to former prime ministers Ariel Sharon and Ehud Olmert.
"Therefore a war waged only as Israel-versus-Hezbollah might yield better damage on Hezbollah, but Hezbollah would inflict far worse damage on the Israeli home-front than it did 4-1/2 years ago," he said.
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