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The "surge" in Iraq continues to generate good news, at least in the American press. Reports claim that it is working.
However, to the degree that the good news is true, it probably has more to do with US troop interaction with the local population than with troop numbers. It may also reflect a large dose of post hoc ergo propter hoc reasoning.
Some of the decline in violence in Baghdad is due not to US troops but to the fact that the Shiites have completed the ethnic cleansing of mixed Sunni-Shiite neighborhoods. A good portion of the improvement in Anbar province is a product of Al Qaeda blunders that have alienated part of its base.
While adoption of classic counter-insurgency techniques by US forces is genuine good news, we should not assume that events in Iraq are solely or even primarily a result of our actions. We are one player among many, and not always the most important...
