Have You been Talking To Warden?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
AmericanPride
Slapout,
The problem with systems approaches, including Warden, is that systems are incredibly resilient and once untethered from their known foundations (i.e. assumptions), respond (and escalate) in unpredictable ways. Systems usually are not destroyed outright but instead adapt to changing circumstances. And even when systems appear to be destroyed, they manifest or express themselves in surprising forms. This necessarily results in repeated reciprocal escalatory actions that quickly test (or break) the parameters of the political object defining the conflict.
We (the U.S.) should be considering how to bring the conflict to a close (read: the exit strategy) rather than embarking on open-ended campaigns with limited results and unpredictable end-states. The U.S. counter-terrorism strategy is very effective at killing terrorists (and those in their immediate vicinity) but not so much in reducing the long-term threat of terrorism. This is the percent increase from 2006 to 2012 in terrorist attacks per country from Global Terrorism Database:
Afghanistan: 420.21% (282 to 1,467)
Iraq: 71.80% (837 to 1,438)
Syria: 17,500% (1 to 176)
Yemen: 6,140% (5 to 307)
How will exclusive use of air power reverse this trend?
AP,
I had to do a double take to see who this was at first. Warden calls this the Hysteresis effect, which means...... well exactly what you said and he consistently pounds that point home when he talks about the whole system of war planning.
As for the answer to your question of course it can. The Rhodesian Fire Force is an excellent example. People of confuse Air power with an Airplane or Air Force which is understandable but it is not the same.
Here is a good example of the Army Air power!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vjBSJV0yHA8
I Am Airborne... Flak Don't Hurt
Quote:
Originally Posted by
CrowBat
Slap,
before you encounter yet heavier flak: could it be you were slightly too enthusiastic and have expected a Warden-like campaign, but this turned to be an amateurish air show?
The short answer is yes. When I started this thread you will notice it has very short comments, I didn't mean for it to turn into a Warden debate but thats OK, comments take many turns here. I only have access to open sources so I was just commenting on daily events. But when I began to see patterns and when I found out there are know JTACS on the ground:eek: it was time to re-fuel and re-arm cause this is going to take a while. I really like reading your posts.