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Hey Bill,Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Moore
From what he tells me its intended primarily for domestic consumption, to create lines of communication, co-ordinate action and, of course, propaganda (i.e., to propagate the movement rather than disinformation). Apparently, it's only just got up and running, again Yemeni internet's not the most reliable being susceptible to being shutdown/restricted.
So the government of Yemen has lost control of 6 provinces. I know of for sure Abyan lost to AQAP cause they declared it a Emirate today, and Saa'na to the Houthis... My question is this: what other provinces have been lost and to whom?
http://kavkazcenter.com/eng/content/...30/13976.shtml
.Quote:
I'm happy to announce that the brothers of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula have captured Abyan province. With the support of the Tribal elders and the Muslims in the area they have captured the whole province.
The Mujahideen have seized all military bases including a weapon factory. After the Mujahideen captured the province, thousands moved on the streets to celebrate this great victory with the Mujahideen.
There are reports that the Tribal elders have declared the "Islamic Emirate of Abyan" and that the Mujahideen are preparing to move to the neighboring provinces
Abyan borders the province of Shabwa on the east (see Wikipedia map).
The Yemeni correspondent of the Ansar Forum also reported that on March 28 the Mujahideen liberated another town, a strategically vital Al-Khotu in the province of Shabwa. The correspondent pointed out that the Mujahideen are patrolling the streets.
Earlier, a pro-Western news-agency, Arab News, reported that puppet regime in Yemen had already lost control of several provinces, in particularly, the four important provinces of Saada, Jawf, Abyan and Shabwa.
The northern province of Saada is under control of the Houthis, and, according to the news agency, the province of Shabwa is under the control of the so-called "South Yemen Movement."
All four major districts of the province: Nessab, Al-Saaed, Haban and Maevaa are under the control of the South Yemen Movement." The groups' weapons come from former police camps.
The control of the puppet government only extends over the provincial capital, Ataq, and the province of Bayhan.
The agency also reported news that state security forces, which fought against Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in Shabwa, no longer exist. The US "suspects" that the world famous Islamic scholar Anwar Al-Awlaki, a US citizen, is living in Shabwa Mountains.
Meanwhile, a local puppet government news agency reported that the Mujahideen of AQAP carried out a raid against government buildings, a local television station and clashed with the military in the province of Jaar. Earlier the Mujahideen of AQAP confiscated weapons from an arms depot."
so while thats most of the info, its not complete still..
The Yemeni government never really "controlled" anything outside of the major cities (excepting Aden which was always a YSP stronghold, in fact the North/South divide was never dealt with); Hadramout, for instance, was never under government control (which see, for instance, Paul Dresch's Tribes, Government and History...sorry can't find a link). The "provinces" are controlled by tribal confederations who nominally pay allegance to the centre (Saleh Gov./regime) in return for largesse. That many of them may now be "abandoning" him may not simply be because they have "sided" with the "opposition" (whatever that inchoate entity may be). Tribes have a habit of hedging their bets but they will almost always follow, in Yemen, with the Hashid do. Actually, the Hashid as a bloc (they often, confusingly, threw their support behind both the GPC and Islah ath the same time!) has been lukewarm to Saleh ever since the elder al-Ahmar was replaced upon his death by his son (Sadeq Al-Ahmar) who, from what I've heard, has always hated Saleh's guts but was kept in line by his old man. AQ and it's affiliates have regularly declared their AOs as "emirates" that doesn't necessarily make them such (ever heard of the Caucasus Emirate? The fact they declared it doesn't make it "real" which is not to say such things don't pose a threat left to their own devices).Quote:
Originally Posted by coffinman82
Sana'a's been lost to the houthi's?:eek: Oh, you don't mean Sa'ada by any chance?
Countering Extremism in Yemen
Entry Excerpt:
Countering Extremism in Yemen:
Beyond Interagency Cooperation
by Kaz Kotlow
Download The Full Article: Countering Extremism in Yemen
Extremism, especially violent extremism, is a clear threat to the national security of the United States. It is widely believed that effectively addressing quality of life issues, encouraging peaceful conflict resolution and enhancing political inclusion are critical to neutralizing extremist messaging, helping prevent the development and spread of violent extremism. Traditionally, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and The United States Department of State (DOS) are the primary agencies for development, with Department of Defense (DOD) efforts in support. But traditional “interagency cooperation” has often not resulted in effective programs. The U.S. Government (USG) should maximize integration of effort, bringing all government elements together from inception to planning and assessment, of a single coherent plan. DOD assets, from doctrine to personnel and funding, can be of great benefit in helping create and execute those integrated efforts.
Download The Full Article: Countering Extremism in Yemen
Colonel Kazimierz "Kaz" Kotlow, USA is currently a visiting Senior Service Col-lege Fellow at The Washington Insti-tute. Most recently, he served as the Defense and Army Attache at the U.S. Embassy in Yemen, a post he previously held at the U.S. Embassy in Lebanon. Colonel Kotlow also deployed as a political/military advisor to the Multinational Force (MNF) Commander, III Corps, in Baghdad, Iraq. Prior to his postings as a Foreign Area Officer, Colonel Kotlow served as a Special Forces detachment commander, deploying multiple times to Eritrea and Kuwait to train host nation forces in infantry operations and demining. The views expressed herein are his own.
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Read the full post and make any comments at the SWJ Blog.
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have you seen my avatar or profile pic? of course i've heard of the Caucasus Emirate. (RIP Supyan) yes, i meant sa'dah. my bad, but i wasn't really looking for criticism or the kind of information you replied with. its not useful to me.
1. Sadah under Houthi control
2. Abyan under AQAP control
3. Jawf under Houthi control
4. Shabwa under South Yemen Movement control
5. ?
6. ?
i sound like im being an ass but im not tryin to be sorry :o
As Yemen lurches along understanding what is happening and what is likely is needed, so I found these two different comments useful:
A Yemeni finale or another of Saleh’s crescendos?:http://www.opendemocracy.net/james-s...99s-crescendos
Yemen's perilous change, which looks at:and link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/fatima-...erilous-changeQuote:
The fundamental question is whether the unrest can succeed in addressing the aspirations of Yemen’s youth, or further empower its entrenched tribal leaders.
Hardly a surprise and the details on SIGINT and AQAP's ability to adapt are not new:http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...218c42ce225bbd
The last sentence is worth thinking about IMHO:Quote:
If the Yemeni government collapses, the concern is how al-Qaida, with its track record of adapting to new adversity, will adapt to new freedom.
BBC report:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13178887
An interesting twist with the opposition being given responsibility.
Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/05/2...#ixzz1NKMDUZEEQuote:
SANAA, Yemen -- Yemen's capital city sank toward anarchy Tuesday as rival armies fought pitched battles in a neighborhood of middle-class homes and government offices in the worst violence to sweep this city since anti-government protests began nearly four months ago.
Forces loyal to Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh shelled the compound of the country's leading tribal sheikh, while forces loyal to Sheikh Sadeq al Ahmar stormed nearby government buildings.
By Tuesday evening, the Interior Ministry was in flames and the Ministry of Industry and the offices of Yemenia Airlines and the Saba news agency were severely damaged. Transiting the city was nearly impossible, and many people were trapped away from their homes as night fell.
At least 38 people were killed Tuesday, including one tribal sheikh taking part in mediation efforts at Ahmar's house.
"It is total war," said one resident of the district where Ahmar's house is located, describing both sides as leveling heavy artillery and rocket-propelled grenades at one another. "It is even worse than yesterday."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13585912Quote:
Armed men are reported to have taken control of a provincial capital in the unsettled south of Yemen. Government officials and residents said fighters from al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) were among those who seized Zinjibar, in Abyan province. But opponents said President Ali Abdullah Saleh had given up the town to stoke fears of a militant takeover.
Quote:
SANA, Yemen — Yemen appeared to tip closer to all out civil war on Wednesday as government troops and opposition tribesmen battled to control key positions in the capital and foreign diplomats boarded planes to flee.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/02/wo...imes&seid=autoQuote:
Late on Tuesday a missile struck the headquarters of General Ahmar, who has so far remained on the sidelines during the recent violence (he is not in the immediate family of Hamid al-Ahmar). The Defense Ministry denied firing the missile, and the general issued a statement confirming an attack by “land-to-land” missile without speculating on who might have fired it.
The missile attack came as state-run media reported that some of the general’s troops stormed the general prosecutor’s office, three miles west of Hasaba, looting documents. State media said that the troops had been joined by militants from Al Eman University, which has ties to Islamic radicals.
South of the capital, the city of Taiz remained in a state of lockdown Wednesday with security forces and Republican Guards moving swiftly to disperse even the smallest gatherings in the streets, residents said.
Quote:
About 100 armed fighters loyal to a tribal leader in Yemen have clashed with security forces on the northern outskirts of the capital, Sanaa. Tribal leaders say hundreds more are marching towards the city in support of their leader, Sheikh Sadeq al-Ahmar.
Map hereQuote:
Clashes took place near the presidential palace and a post held by the Republican Guard, an elite army unit loyal to President Saleh and led by his son Ahmed, according to AFP.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13625811
A succinct analysis by Ginny Hill of who matters:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13560514
Quote:
Yemen is currently witnessing two parallel power shifts: a popular revolution inspired by the 'Arab spring', and an elite power struggle.
http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/...186/story.html
I don't know enough about Yemen to say whether it's true or not, but somhow the idea of an "idealistic movement for democracy and political reform" devolving into "a battle of money, power, and egos" seems fairly credible to me... though maybe I'm excessively cynical!Quote:
Feud within key Yemen tribe could tear nation apart
The unrest shaking Yemen began months ago as part of the idealistic movement for democracy and political reform sweeping the Middle East. It is now a battle of money, power and egos within a single powerful clan that threatens to tear the country apart.
You gotta be sh1tt1n me.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/09/wo...l.html?_r=1&hpQuote:
WASHINGTON — The Obama administration has intensified the American covert war in Yemen, exploiting a growing power vacuum in the country to strike at militant suspects with armed drones and fighter jets, according to American officials.
No great surprise such an allegation, but from an 'insider' adds some weight and the sub-title is:Topically given recent events he alleges:Quote:
The oldest military ally of Yemen's injured President Ali Abdullah Saleh has said the al-Qaeda terrorist crisis in the country was manufactured to win backing from outside powers.
Now where have we heard, nay encountered with substantial evidence that a government has 'manufactured' an internal terrorist group?Quote:
Just after Saleh spoke of al-Qaeda seizing control of provinces, the regime handed over Abyan to terrorist gunmen. I fear that the regime might hand over control over other provinces to terrorist groups.
Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...n-support.html
At last some insight on what is happening, thanks to FP Blog and written by an Australian:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...saleh?page=0,0
I don't suppose the FBI are advertising their role in this ****:Quote:
There aren't many foreigners traveling to Sanaa these days, but one group of outsiders is getting a lot of attention: an FBI forensics team, which reportedly arrived last week to investigate the attempted assassination of Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who is now convalescing in Saudi Arabia.
Evidence from the scene indicates that the explosion may have been caused by a device that was planted inside the mosque on the presidential compound, and not by a mortar shell or rocket, as was initially reported. If true, this means that someone with close access to the president was involved, which raises the question of why members of the Yemeni regime's inner circle -- set to mark its 33rd anniversary in power next month -- now appear intent on destroying each other?
Comment on the Yemen/Saudi situation...
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articl...dilemma-061611
Dayuhan,
Good catch the cited article, the last paragraph says it all for the Yemen:We know Saudi Arabia supported Mubarak in Egypt till the end, then acknowledged his removal was popular and granted an unconditional US$4 billion loan. So they can move rapidly when needed to change partners.Quote:
Like their counterparts in Tunisia and Egypt, the demonstrators who have taken to the streets in Yemen over the past months want a new political order, not more of the same. They want a transitional government of national unity, composed of technocrats, that will function until new parliamentary and presidential elections can be held. This, in effect, means the establishment of a democratic order -- an outcome that Riyadh, for ideological and practical reasons, will be reluctant to midwife. This leaves Saudi Arabia caught between two contradictory policy imperatives: maintaining its influence in Yemen and rendering the country sufficiently stable so as not to pose a threat. In Yemen, Riyadh is confronted with difficult choices and no easy solutions.
I wonder if President Saleh will be able to exit his hospital.