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To be a bit cynical, it doesn't matter because at the JO level everyone is getting promoted. To be a bit more idealistic - the BCT Commander should have the authority to promote officers from 2LT to 1LT and from 1LT to CPT. This gives him the flexibility to assign his personnel the way he wants to instead of relying on HRC to keep the flow and ebb consistent. And the only way to do this is to institute a Regimental system where officers grow up to the rank of Major.
Yep, the numbers are - well, got a pulse? And by now most of the AD Army has seen the email from HRC on the shortage %s. I would say that given the requirements - some of the Goldwater Nichols stuff and some of the new Joint, etc. - we could wind up creating new problems - who gets let go and who gets traded:wry: to the minors (perceived).
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I'd say the first issue is identifying the talent, identify what their motivations are, and then reward them with jobs with more responsibility or additional schools, etc...but at the end of the day, a lot (if not most) people are going to be ragged out after a 3rd or 4th tour, especially if they are married. What if you have a company commander who is a flat out stud, but he's on his third tour in four years, and his request is go teach ROTC for two years back in CONUS someplace?
As much fun as command is, and as important as the responsibility of a command is, it may not be the best place to place all your talent, all of the time - there is plenty of good use outside of command for talented folks along with the opportunity for them to make a large impact. I'd also say that if you want to grow generals capable of "doing only what generals can do" in today's challenges, then you are going to have to expose them to things outside of command, and give them a chance to reflect and internalize what they learned. Take ROTC for example and consider the returns you get from that investment by placing a talented individual in a position to influence future leaders - its exponential. We have to sell our "influencers / mentors/ Senior Raters" that it is often in the best interest of both the individual and the big Army to consider these other jobs / opportunities - the path should not necessarilly be CMD / CTC OC / Resident ILE / S3 /XO / BDE S3 / BN CDR / BDE DCG / War College / BDE CDR. We limit / restrict ourselves then reap what we sew. There is strength and opportunity in diversity.All Ops and no "other"